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Snow ice is the product of the transformation from snow into sea ice, which plays an important role in the change of sea ice structure. Studying the spatial and temporal variations of snow ice can provide deep insights into the “snow-ice” transformation process and help understand the evolution of sea ice and polar climate changes. This paper utilizes the EC-Earth3 model to analyze snow ice and its influencing factors in both historical simulations (1990−2014) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP245 projections (2015−2100). The spatiotemporal evolution of snow ice growth in historical and future periods was investigated by statistical methods such as ensemble averaging, regression analysis, and Mann-Kendall trend test. Compared with the satellite observation sea ice density data of the National Ice and Snow Data Center, the results indicate that the EC-Earth3 model performs well in reconstructing the observed sea ice, and hence provides confidence in projecting the future ice variation. Snow ice primarily forms in winter and spring, with distribution in the Davis Strait, the Nordic Seas, and the northern Barents Sea. The average decrease trend of snow ice growth is 7.4 × 108 kg/a; the change of the average sea ice outer edge line is about 1 kg/m2 in spring and winter; the highest proportion of snow ice is in the southeast of Greenland with an average of about 2%. Increased snowfall, rainfall and rising temperatures are important factors affecting snow ice formation. Future projections suggest that the generation of snow ice is still mainly concentrated in spring and winter, and the total amount of snow ice growth will decrease by 2.6 × 108 kg/a on average; due to the increase of precipitation and temperature increase, the maximum increase trend of snow ice annual in March in the study area is 0.7 kg/m2, and the proportion of snow ice in ice thickness increases year by year. The analysis of future scenario experiment results has important scientific reference value for the development and utilization of Arctic waterway and the design of icebreaker capacity.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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