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Unraveling the Complex Relationship between Urbanization and Landscape Ecological Risk: Insights from Chinese Cities
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Chen Zeng1, 2, *, Chuxuan Lin1, 2, Yufei Liang3, *, Lindsay C. Stringer4, Zhiqiang Tian5, Hugo Wai Leung Mak6, 7, Xiaohui Fan1, 2, Danling Chen1, Shunqian Gao1, 2, Shangye Yang1, 2
Ecosystem Health and Sustainability | 2025, 11(6) : 0448
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Ecosystem Health and Sustainability | 2025, 11(6): 0448
• RESEARCH ARTICLE •
Unraveling the Complex Relationship between Urbanization and Landscape Ecological Risk: Insights from Chinese Cities
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Chen Zeng1, 2, *, Chuxuan Lin1, 2, Yufei Liang3, *, Lindsay C. Stringer4, Zhiqiang Tian5, Hugo Wai Leung Mak6, 7, Xiaohui Fan1, 2, Danling Chen1, Shunqian Gao1, 2, Shangye Yang1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1Department of Land Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China.
  • 2Research Center for Territorial Spatial Governance and Green Development, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China.
  • 3School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
  • 4Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York Y010 5NG, UK.
  • 5China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100035, China.
  • 6Department of Mathematics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong 999077, China.
  • 7Department of Mathematics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Published: 2025-12-10 doi: 10.34133/ehs.0448
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Highly urbanized cities have undergone substantial land use changes driven by intensive human activities, leading to increasingly prominent ecological security challenges. This study employed landscape pattern indices to evaluate the landscape ecological risk (LER) across 275 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2019. We hypothesized that the mechanisms influencing LER vary according to the level of urbanization. An integrated panel threshold regression model was applied to examine this hierarchical influence and identify potential thresholds in the urbanization rate (UR). In addition, the spatial spillover effects of LER were investigated using a spatial panel econometric model. Our findings revealed an initial increase in LER from 2011 to 2013, followed by a notable stabilization between 2015 and 2019, with evident spatial heterogeneity. Using UR as the threshold variable, the normalized difference vegetation index, population density, and per-capita gross domestic product (PGDP) were found to exert nonlinear impacts on LER, which were consistent across multiple model specifications. A critical threshold was identified at a UR of 62.1%, beyond which the influence of PGDP on LER altered substantially. Spatial spillover effects of LER were also stronger in cities below this UR threshold, implying that highly urbanized cities may possess self-regulatory ecosystem mechanisms that mitigate LER. Based on the results, the development of secondary and tertiary industries, alongside the construction of infrastructure, could mitigate LER for low-urbanization cities. In highly urbanized cities, blue-green space planning should be strategically aligned with industrial transformation and upgrading, thereby bolstering urban ecological protection and contributing to long-term environmental sustainability.

Chen Zeng, Chuxuan Lin, Yufei Liang, Lindsay C. Stringer, Zhiqiang Tian, Hugo Wai Leung Mak, Xiaohui Fan, Danling Chen, Shunqian Gao, Shangye Yang. Unraveling the Complex Relationship between Urbanization and Landscape Ecological Risk: Insights from Chinese Cities[J]. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability, 2025 , 11 (6) : 0448 - . DOI: 10.34133/ehs.0448
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Funding
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  • the Major Philosophy and Social Science Projects, Ministry of Education(24JZD037)
  • the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171262; 42571319)
Appendix
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Year 2025 volume 11 Issue 6
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Article Info
doi: 10.34133/ehs.0448
  • Receive Date：2025-04-29
  • Online Date：2026-07-23
  • Published：2025-12-10
Article Data
Affiliations
History
  • Received：2025-04-29
  • Revised：2025-10-17
  • Accepted：2025-11-05
Funding
the Major Philosophy and Social Science Projects, Ministry of Education(24JZD037)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171262; 42571319)
Affiliations
    1Department of Land Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China.
    2Research Center for Territorial Spatial Governance and Green Development, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China.
    3School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
    4Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York Y010 5NG, UK.
    5China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100035, China.
    6Department of Mathematics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong 999077, China.
    7Department of Mathematics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.

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多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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