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Short-Term Metro Inbound Passenger Flow Prediction Using Multi-Granularity Temporal Features and Graph Attention
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Pengju Shen1, 2, Liying Song1, 2
Urban Rapid Rail Transit | 2026, 39(4) : 161 - 169
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Urban Rapid Rail Transit | 2026, 39(4): 161-169
• Academic Discussion •
Short-Term Metro Inbound Passenger Flow Prediction Using Multi-Granularity Temporal Features and Graph Attention
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Pengju Shen1, 2, Liying Song1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1.School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044
  • 2.Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport of Ministry of Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2026.04.019
Outline
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To address the insufficient fusion of multi-granularity temporal features and inadequate modeling of spatial heterogeneity among stations in short-term metro inbound passenger flow forecasting, this paper proposes the Multi-Granularity and Attention-enhanced Passenger Flow Prediction model (MGAPF). In the temporal dimension, four one-dimensional convolutional branches with different receptive fields are constructed, and a granularity attention mechanism is used to adaptively fuse multi-scale temporal features. In the spatial dimension, a graph attention mechanism is introduced to dynamically learn the correlation strengths among adjacent stations. External temporal contextual features, including holidays, weekends, and weather conditions, are also incorporated. A gated fusion structure, residual connections, and a Transformer encoder are further combined to perform spatiotemporal feature interaction and generate prediction outputs. Experimental results based on real operational data from Hangzhou Metro show that MGAPF achieves MAPE values of 16.93% and 9.52% in the 10-minute and 30-minute forecasting tasks, respectively, representing error reductions of approximately 4.5% and 7.8% compared with the second-best baseline model. MGAPF also performs better in terms of MAE, RMSE, and prediction stability, indicating that the fusion of multi-granularity temporal features, spatial correlations among stations, and external factors can effectively improve the accuracy and stability of short-term metro inbound passenger flow prediction.

urban rail transit  /  passenger flow prediction  /  multi-granularity  /  graph attention network  /  deep learning
沈鹏举, 宋丽英. 融合多时间粒度与图注意力的地铁短时进站客流预测方法. 都市快轨交通, 2026 , 39 (4) : 161 -169 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2026.04.019
Pengju Shen, Liying Song. Short-Term Metro Inbound Passenger Flow Prediction Using Multi-Granularity Temporal Features and Graph Attention[J]. Urban Rapid Rail Transit, 2026 , 39 (4) : 161 -169 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2026.04.019
Year 2026 volume 39 Issue 4
184
30
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Article Info
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2026.04.019
  • Receive Date:2025-07-29
  • Online Date:2026-09-20
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  • Received:2025-07-29
  • Revised:2026-06-30
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    1.School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044
    2.Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport of Ministry of Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044
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