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Outline
In the operation of ultra-large-scale urban rail transit networks, train operation delays occur frequently. Accurately and efficiently predicting the number and scope of affected passengers is crucial for network command and dispatch. Based on the normal passenger flow situation, this paper combines the advantages of data-driven and model-driven methods and proposes a short-term prediction method for the scope and number of affected passengers under urban rail train delays. First, based on the detailed OD path data of passenger travel chains under normal conditions, by analyzing the passenger flow direction in the delayed section, the scope of affected passengers is defined and a passenger flow quantity prediction model is constructed. Second, for the affected passenger group, according to the travel choice behavior of passengers under delay conditions, the passenger impedance sensitivity coefficient is calibrated to predict the structural changes of passenger components (waiting, detouring, and loss). Finally, multiple actual train delay scenarios in the Beijing urban rail network are selected for verification. The results show that this method can be effectively applied to multiple scenarios in the Beijing urban rail network. The average relative error of the prediction during the morning peak on weekdays is 4.8%. The time-consuming for predicting various passenger flow indicators within the next 30 minutes with a 5 minute granularity does not exceed 140 seconds, which shows good universality, accuracy, and timeliness. Currently, this solution has been successfully applied in the Beijing Rail Transit Command Center, providing passenger flow risk warnings, passenger guidance, and emergency coordination support for network dispatchers.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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