Ice disasters can cause serious damage to power transmission network, it is crucial to enhance the resilience of power transmission network during ice disasters. Unlike extreme natural disasters such as hurricanes or earthquakes, ice disasters develop slowly and last long time. It is difficult to predict the development trend of ice disaster accurately due to the influence of microclimate and terrain on their geographic coverage. Currently, the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of ice disasters are not clear. The existing research on improving the resilience of power transmission networks considering the impact of ice disasters have not involved the temporal modeling of ice disaster scenarios. Therefore, the paper proposes a method for temporal modeling of ice storm scenarios based on multispectral satellite remote sensing. By combining multispectral remote sensing image fusion methods based on Laplacian pyramid decomposition, efficient extraction and analysis of the spatial distribution and temporal changes of ice-covered areas in Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing images are achieved. Using partial differential convolution, ice-covered areas are predicted dynamically based on the fused images, and an ice disaster temporal model is constructed. Additionally, a conditional variational autoencoder is used to generate a set of ice disaster scenarios, which accurately reflect the spatiotemporal characteristics of "source-network-load" during ice disasters.
Considering the interaction between the disaster development process and resilience enhancement measures, the power transmission system resilience can be simultaneously enhanced through both pre-disaster prevention and in-disaster repair measures. This paper proposes a comprehensive resilience evaluation index and constructs a two-stage robust resilience enhancement planning model for power transmission networks based on the set of ice disaster scenarios. The first stage focuses on pre-disaster fixed energy storage configuration and pre-planning of maintenance resources to find the optimal investment decision. The second stage focuses on in-disaster power supply through fixed energy storage and emergency maintenance considering limited maintenance resources, ensuring rapid response from fixed energy storage and maintenance teams after the occurrence time of the ice disaster, which aims to ensure rapid load recovery, maximize system resilience, and minimize system economic losses. The model is iteratively solved using a parallelizable column-and-constraint generation algorithm.
Finally, case studies are conducted using ice-covered remote sensing data from a region in Yunnan and a modified IEEE RTS-79 power transmission system as the test system. The results show that the coordination of fixed energy storage power supply and emergency maintenance can effectively ensure power supply and transmission during ice disasters, as the system resilience improved by 90.97% and total system losses decreased by 43.19% during the ice disasters. Compared with other resilience enhancement strategies, the proposed strategy in this paper balances both economic efficiency and resilience. What’s more, different ice disaster center locations are set in the case study considering the inherent uncertainty of ice disasters. The results demonstrate that for ice disasters with multiple origins, the proposed method effectively ensures power restoration in the transmission system, enhances system resilience, reduces load shedding losses and total costs.