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Re-entry Casualty Risk of Space Vehicles and Future Technological Developments
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Hongbo LI, Yufei LI, Chao HU, Fubiao XI
Missiles and Space Vehicles | 2025, 48(4) : 74 - 80
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Missiles and Space Vehicles | 2025, 48(4): 74-80
• Launch Vehicle and Missile •
Re-entry Casualty Risk of Space Vehicles and Future Technological Developments
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Hongbo LI, Yufei LI, Chao HU, Fubiao XI
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  • China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing, 100076
Published: 2025-08-25 doi: 10.7654/j.issn.2097-1974.20250410
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With the increasing frequency of human space activities, there are surviving debris of re-entry spacecraft and debris that impact the Earth's surface, causing typical damage cases and affecting the future technological development of spacecraft. Firstly typical re-entry damage cases and disposal methods of foreign spacecraft that have attracted significant social attention are analyzeds. Secondly the main international norms and standards for re-entry casualty risk are introduced. Then those assessment methods of re-entry casualty risk are studied together with re-entry risk analysis tools of NASA and ESA. Finally it's looked forward to the furture development and existing problems of major space powers in the technical directions of active deorbit, assisted deorbit, large-scale reentry, and reusable spacecraft. Research shows that although the re-entry casualty risk of spacecraft and debris is still difficult to predicte very accurately, it is expected to be moderately controlled by the design of risk-reduction measures along with technological development.

re-entry casualty risk  /  active deorbit  /  assisted deorbit  /  natural re-entry  /  re-entry casualty risk assessment
Hongbo LI, Yufei LI, Chao HU, Fubiao XI. Re-entry Casualty Risk of Space Vehicles and Future Technological Developments[J]. Missiles and Space Vehicles, 2025 , 48 (4) : 74 -80 . DOI: 10.7654/j.issn.2097-1974.20250410
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doi: 10.7654/j.issn.2097-1974.20250410
  • Receive Date：2024-10-15
  • Online Date：2025-10-27
  • Published：2025-08-25
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  • Received：2024-10-15
  • Revised：2025-01-09
Affiliations
    China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing, 100076
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Number of
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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