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Preliminary Study on Groundwater Level Anomaly Identification Using the Prophet Model
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Yongsheng LI1, Chen ZHOU1, Simeng ZHANG1, Wei SHI1, Hua NIAN1
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2025, 45(3) : 313 - 318
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Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2025, 45(3): 313-318
Preliminary Study on Groundwater Level Anomaly Identification Using the Prophet Model
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Yongsheng LI1, Chen ZHOU1, Simeng ZHANG1, Wei SHI1, Hua NIAN1
Affiliations
  • 1 Heilongjiang Earthquake Agency, 24 Hongxiang Road, Harbin 150090, China

    • LI Yongsheng, PhD, senior engineer, majors in earthquake prediction and volcano, E-mail:

About Author:

LI Yongsheng, PhD, senior engineer, majors in earthquake prediction and volcano, E-mail:

Published: 2025-03-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.04.165
Outline
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We focus on the complex characteristics of groundwater level data, including nonlinear trends, seasonal fluctuations, and random disturbances, and introduce the Prophet time series prediction model developed by Facebook. The aim is to use its nonlinear trend capture, seasonal fluctuation analysis, and flexible response ability to outliers and data missing to significantly improve the accuracy of groundwater level anomaly identification. Through observation data from Beilin district seismic station in Suihua city, Heilongjiang province, it is shown that the Prophet model performs well in capturing dynamic characteristics of time series data and can effectively identify anomalies. The high fitting accuracy and predictive ability of adjusted model have been confirmed, with low prediction error and high determination coefficient. In addition, the model identifies water level anomalies related to earthquakes in earthquake prediction, providing a new perspective for earthquake precursor research. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of Prophet model in processing complex time series data, providing a new tool for earthquake prediction.

groundwater level anomaly identification  /  time series prediction  /  Prophet model  /  earthquake prediction
李永生, 周晨, 张思萌, 石伟, 年华. 利用Prophet模型进行地下水位异常识别初探. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2025 , 45 (3) : 313 -318 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.04.165
Yongsheng LI, Chen ZHOU, Simeng ZHANG, Wei SHI, Hua NIAN. Preliminary Study on Groundwater Level Anomaly Identification Using the Prophet Model[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2025 , 45 (3) : 313 -318 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.04.165
Funding
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  • Project of Jilin Changbaishan Volcano National Observation and Research Station(NORSCBS21-09)
  • Innovation Team Project for Volcanic Activity Research of Heilongjiang Earthquake Agency; The Spark Program of Earthquake Technology of CEA(XH20017)
Appendix
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Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 3
19
7
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Article Info
doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.04.165
  • Receive Date：2024-04-11
  • Online Date：2026-10-30
  • Published：2025-03-15
Article Data
Affiliations
History
  • Received：2024-04-11
Funding
Project of Jilin Changbaishan Volcano National Observation and Research Station(NORSCBS21-09)
Innovation Team Project for Volcanic Activity Research of Heilongjiang Earthquake Agency; The Spark Program of Earthquake Technology of CEA(XH20017)
Affiliations
    1 Heilongjiang Earthquake Agency, 24 Hongxiang Road, Harbin 150090, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/ddcl/EN/10.14075/j.jgg.2024.04.165
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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