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Impact of Universal Time Prediction Errors on the Accuracy of Satellite Orbit Determination
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Rui LI1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Kui LIU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, *, Chenggang QIN1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Zipeng WU6, Su ZHAN1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Zhu LI1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Defeng GU6, Liangcheng TU1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2026, 46(9) : 1046 - 1053
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Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2026, 46(9): 1046-1053
Impact of Universal Time Prediction Errors on the Accuracy of Satellite Orbit Determination
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Rui LI1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Kui LIU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, *, Chenggang QIN1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Zipeng WU6, Su ZHAN1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Zhu LI1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Defeng GU6, Liangcheng TU1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Affiliations
  • 1 TianQin Research Center for Gravitational Physics, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
  • 2 School of Physics and Astronomy, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
  • 3 MOE Key Laboratory of TianQin Mission, Zhuhai 519082, China
  • 4 Frontiers Science Center for TianQin, Zhuhai 519082, China
  • 5 Gravitational Wave Research Center of CNSA, Zhuhai 519082, China
  • 6 School of Artificial Intelligence, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Published: 2026-09-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.11.366
Outline
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Aiming at the critical influence of universal time 1 (UT1) prediction accuracy on satellite precise orbit determination, this paper quantitatively analyzes the prediction performance of 116 batches of Bulletin A released by the international Earth rotation and reference systems service (IERS). Taking multi-orbit targets including the TianQin-3 satellite, space station and Beidou satellites as examples, the magnitude estimation formula for the influence of UT1 prediction error on orbit determination accuracy is verified. A rapid evaluation of the three-dimensional orbital deviation of satellites is realized only based on orbital radius and universal time error. The analysis results show that the UT1 prediction error of Bulletin A exhibits obvious uncertainty and increases significantly with the growth of time scale. Its 30-day mean prediction error (3.399 ms) causes orbital deviations ranging from 1.673 m to 24.79 m for satellites from low Earth orbit to deep space exploration represented by the TianQin-3 satellite. The quantitative results reveal that the accuracy of existing prediction products has a non-negligible impact on future high-precision aerospace missions, and demonstrate the necessity of developing China's independent and high-precision universal time measurement and prediction system.

universal time  /  prediction error  /  accuracy of orbit determination  /  universal time measurement and prediction system  /  Earth orientation parameters
李蕊, 柳奎, 秦成刚, 吴梓鹏, 詹苏, 李祝, 谷德峰, 涂良成. 世界时预报误差对卫星定轨精度影响分析. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2026 , 46 (9) : 1046 -1053 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.11.366
Rui LI, Kui LIU, Chenggang QIN, Zipeng WU, Su ZHAN, Zhu LI, Defeng GU, Liangcheng TU. Impact of Universal Time Prediction Errors on the Accuracy of Satellite Orbit Determination[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2026 , 46 (9) : 1046 -1053 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.11.366
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Year 2026 volume 46 Issue 9
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Article Info
doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.11.366
  • Receive Date：2025-11-03
  • Online Date：2026-10-30
  • Published：2026-09-15
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History
  • Received：2025-11-03
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Affiliations
    1 TianQin Research Center for Gravitational Physics, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
    2 School of Physics and Astronomy, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
    3 MOE Key Laboratory of TianQin Mission, Zhuhai 519082, China
    4 Frontiers Science Center for TianQin, Zhuhai 519082, China
    5 Gravitational Wave Research Center of CNSA, Zhuhai 519082, China
    6 School of Artificial Intelligence, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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