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Outline
In order to better promote the application of time-varying measurement results of ambient noise wave velocity in earthquake tracking and earthquake prediction, this paper comprehensively processes the time series of direct Rayleigh wave travel time migration in 43 stations in western Yunnan in the past five years, and extracts the time-varying anomaly identification index (comprehensive index) of wave velocity suitable for MS≥5.0 earthquakes in western Yunnan. Combined with the seven MS≥5.0 earthquake events in western Yunnan during the study period, the R-value scoring method was used to evaluate the prediction efficiency of the comprehensive index. The results show that: 1) The comprehensive index has a good indication for the occurrence time of MS≥5.0 earthquakes in western Yunnan since 2020. Under the premise of passing the significance test of 97.5% confidence level (R>R0), the best prediction window length of the comprehensive index is 90 d. For the actual occurrence of 7 MS≥5.0 earthquakes, the comprehensive index accurately predicts 7 earthquakes, omits 0 earthquakes, and falsely reports 5 earthquakes. 2) The corresponding relationship between the epicenter of MS≥5.0 earthquakes in the study area and the distribution of abnormal stations before the earthquake (when the index appears) shows that the precursory behavior monitored by the time-varying measurement of ambient noise wave velocity should be more 'field precursor', rather than 'source precursor'. In the actual location prediction, it is necessary to combine the abnormal areas of seismic activity (such as empty areas and bands) and the abnormal areas obtained by field observations such as gravity and mobile geomagnetic to find possible earthquake locations, so as to improve the accuracy of location prediction.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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