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Outline
This paper reviews and summarizes traditional estimation methods, highlighting their reliance solelyon observed seismic activity data. If the return period of the maximum earthquake exceeds the data coverage period or seismic activity rates fluctuate over longer timescales, these methods become ineffective. Furthermore, in the absence of physical constraints, traditional approaches may predict unbounded growth in the maximum event magnitude as the temporal scope expands.To address these limitations, this study introduces a new model based on seismic moment conservation. This model integrates instrumental records, fault slip rates, fault geometry, and seismic activity patterns, assuming that seismicity follows the Gutenberg-Richter(G-R) law. By simulating missing large earthquakes and their aftershocks, it constructs a long-term seismic catalog and imposes physical constraints on the maximum magnitude using the seismic moment accumulation rate, effectively mitigating the reliance of traditional methods on observational periods.The model is applied to predict the Mmax and return period of the Aerjin fault zone, the Kunlun fault zone, and the Longmenshan fault zone. The results show high consistency with historical earthquake records, paleoearthquake data, and observed slip rates, validating the model's efficacy. This research offers a new perspective on maximum magnitude estimation and provides a valuable tool for seismic hazard assessment in regions with incomplete historical records.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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