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Estimation Method of Seismic Tsunami Hazard Based on the Generalized Extreme Value Theory: A Case Study of Southeast Coast of China
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Zhe LIU1, 2, Luchuan REN3, *
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2025, 45(7) : 681 - 687
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Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2025, 45(7): 681-687
Estimation Method of Seismic Tsunami Hazard Based on the Generalized Extreme Value Theory: A Case Study of Southeast Coast of China
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Zhe LIU1, 2, Luchuan REN3, *
Affiliations
  • 1 Hebei Hongshan National Observatory on Thick Sediments and Seismic Hazards, 1540 West-Quanbei Street, Xingtai 054000, China
  • 2 Tangshan Earthquake Monitor Center of Hebei Earthquake Agency, 1 Guofang Road, Tangshan 063000, China
  • 3 Institute of Disaster Prevention, 465 Xueyuan Street, Sanhe 065201, China
  • LIU Zhe, engineer, majors in earthquake disaster prediction and disaster risk analysis, E-mail:

About Author:

LIU Zhe, engineer, majors in earthquake disaster prediction and disaster risk analysis, E-mail:

Published: 2025-07-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.339
Outline
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We explore estimation methods of seismic tsunami hazard based on the generalized extreme value theory, provide two case studies for constructing seismic activity models: one based on the generalized extreme value distribution to build a seismic activity model for Ryukyu trench subduction zone, and the other based on the generalized Pareto distribution to build a seismic activity model for Manila trench subduction zone. Six specific sites along the southeast coast of China are selected, and strong seismic activity models are constructed using generalized extreme value theory, considering the Manila trench and Ryukyu trench subduction zones as potential source areas. Through numerical simulation of seismic tsunamis, the estimation result of seismic tsunami hazard for these specific sites of Manila trench and Ryukyu trench subduction zones in a future time period is obtained. These results are then compared with estimation results that consider the uncertainty effects. The findings indicate that the ranking of deterministic estimation results is consistent with that of coupled uncertainty effects, with the former having higher values than the latter, but still having reference value.

seismic tsunami hazard estimation  /  generalized extreme value theory  /  southeast coast of China  /  seismic activity model
刘哲, 任鲁川. 基于广义极值理论的地震海啸危险性估计方法——以中国东南沿海为例. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2025 , 45 (7) : 681 -687 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.339
Zhe LIU, Luchuan REN. Estimation Method of Seismic Tsunami Hazard Based on the Generalized Extreme Value Theory: A Case Study of Southeast Coast of China[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2025 , 45 (7) : 681 -687 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.339
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China(41276020)
  • The Spark Program of Earthquake Technology of Hebei Province(DZ2021110800001)
  • The Spark Program of Earthquake Technology of Hebei Province(DZ2024112600019)
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 7
35
15
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Article Info
doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.339
  • Receive Date:2024-07-12
  • Online Date:2026-10-29
  • Published:2025-07-15
Article Data
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History
  • Received:2024-07-12
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41276020)
The Spark Program of Earthquake Technology of Hebei Province(DZ2021110800001)
The Spark Program of Earthquake Technology of Hebei Province(DZ2024112600019)
Affiliations
    1 Hebei Hongshan National Observatory on Thick Sediments and Seismic Hazards, 1540 West-Quanbei Street, Xingtai 054000, China
    2 Tangshan Earthquake Monitor Center of Hebei Earthquake Agency, 1 Guofang Road, Tangshan 063000, China
    3 Institute of Disaster Prevention, 465 Xueyuan Street, Sanhe 065201, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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