Full
LI Sha, engineer, majors in seismic activity and regional stress field, E-mail：lisha4340@163.com
Outline
In 2019, the Beiliu M5.2 and Jingxi M5.2 earthquakes occurred successively in different tectonic regions of Guangxi. To obtain the parameter characteristics and probability prediction results of aftershock sequences based on statistical seismology models, we use the ETAS model to calculate the model parameters of two earthquake sequences, and analyze the probability of occurrence and occurrence rate of aftershocks and evaluate the prediction efficiency. The results show that both Beiliu and Jingxi earthquake sequences exhibit high α-value in early stage, indicating weaker ability to trigger secondary aftershocks. The p-value shows that two earthquake sequences decay rapidly in early stage. The prediction results of probability of occurrence and occurrence rate are consistent with the actual low occurrence rate of aftershocks. The ETAS model performs better in predicting aftershocks of Jingxi earthquake sequence than Beiliu earthquake sequence. The strike-slip Beiliu earthquake sequence has lower α-value than the ultra-shallow thrust-type Jingxi earthquake sequence in early stage, which may be greatly affected by the high geothermal heat flow, but the p-value is relatively high. The μ-value of Jingxi earthquake sequence is significantly greater than that of Beiliu earthquake sequence in early stage, suggesting more significantly affected by fluid triggering.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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