ZHU Hongbin, senior engineer, majors in background of the strong earthquake in north China and tracking prediction of major earthquakes in China's mainland and adjacent areas, E-mail: zhb65@sina.com
By dividing the seismic cycles of MS≥7.8 earthquakes in China's mainland and adjacent regions and studying the migration of main active zones, combined with the acceleration-deceleration changes of Earth's rotation speed, this study explores the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms of M8.0 seismic activity in the study area. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Since 1879, the study area has experienced 6 active periods of M8.0 earthquakes. The second active period mainly occurred in the Pamir-Baikal seismic belt, the third in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang plateau, the fourth in the southeastern margin, the fifth in Yunnan and north China, and the sixth around the Bayan Har block within the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. The region may currently be in the initial stage of a new active period. 2) Since 1867, Earth's length of day(LOD) variation curve shows 4 acceleration-deceleration cycles and 16 acceleration-deceleration phases. The superposition of S tectonic stress fields with deceleration changes favors M8.0 earthquakes in the Pamir-Baikal belt, while NE-oriented stress fields combined with acceleration changes facilitate M8.0 earthquakes along the Qinghai-Xizang plateau margins and interior. The transition from acceleration to deceleration phases causes the tectonic stress field around the Qinghai-Xizang plateau to shift from NE-dominated to locally restored NS orientation, serving as the main driver for the third, fourth, and sixth active periods. 3) The tectonic stress field in China's mainland and adjacent regions has experienced clockwise rotation from NS to NE and then to NEE orientations over the past century, potentially related to Earth's rotation changes involving significant deceleration before 1913 followed by overall acceleration. This process remains ongoing, with no current signs of concentrated M8.0 earthquakes similar to the second active period. However, vigilance is needed regarding possible continued NEE rotation of the Qinghai-Xizang plateau's stress field, and future emergence of new main active zones cannot be ruled out.
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |