Far-field earthquake triggering mechanisms represent a critical frontier in earthquake prediction research. To explore the spatiotemporal relationship between strong seismic activity in Japan and moderate-to-strong earthquakes in northeast China, this study develops a data-driven prediction model. Based on the USGS earthquake catalog from 1980 to 2024, and using M≥6.0 earthquakes in Japan as potential triggers, the model predicts the probability of earthquakes with M≥4 occurring in northeast China within the next 60 days. A daily-resolution time series dataset is constructed, incorporating 32-dimensional features covering earthquake statistics, spatial distribution, energy release, and aftershock sequences. Deep learning models including long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, attention mechanism-enhanced LSTM (Attention-LSTM), and Transformer are systematically compared against traditional machine learning methods such as logistic regression and random forest. Results indicate that the Attention-LSTM model performs optimally, achieving an F1 score of 0.915 and an AUC value of 0.661, and shows significant advantages in Molchan error diagram analysis, a method specific to earthquake prediction evaluation. The model enables both binary classification prediction and generation of spatial probability distribution maps at 1°×1° grid resolution. This study demonstrates the potential of deep learning for revealing cross-regional far-field earthquake triggering mechanisms and provides new insights for short-to-medium-term regional seismic hazard assessment.
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |