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We analyze the prediction effectiveness of seismic gaps before MS≥5 earthquakes in Gansu region from 1984 to 2023. The results show that seismic gaps in Gansu and its adjacent regions have an accuracy rate of 0.75, a false rate of 0.25, and a missing rate of 0.38 for forecasting moderate-strong earthquakes in Gansu. The R-value is 0.5, which exceeds the R0 value of 0.23 at the 97.5% confidence level. This demonstrates that seismic gaps have relatively good forecasting capability for moderate-strong earthquakes in Gansu. The mainshocks generally occurred inside the seismic gaps or near their edges, and the duration of these seismic gaps does not exceed 8 years. The number of broken and unbroken seismic gaps before mainshocks are comparable. The probability of the mainshock occurring within 1 year after the broken gap is about 89%, and about 67% within 4 months. There is no obvious correlation existed between the duration of seismic gap and the mainshock magnitude. However, there is a linear relationship between the minimum magnitude of seismic gap with initial magnitude of ML3.0~4.0, and the long axis of seismic gap has a good correlation with the mainshock magnitude. The seismic gap can be used as one of the important indicators for predicting moderate-strong earthquakes in western Qilian mountains, the southeastern part of eastern Qilian mountains and Minxian-Diebu section. It is also a significant indicator for predicting MS≥6 earthquakes in Gansu. The probability of two seismic gaps appearing before mainshock is very high, and the mainshock is most likely to occur within 4 months after the broken gap, located inside or near the overlapping region of the two seismic gaps.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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