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Outline
To explore high-accuracy autonomous polar motion (PM) prediction using purely data-driven methods, we propose a hybrid model named PSO-FFRLS+MAR (forgetting factor recursive least squares optimized by particle swarm optimization and multivariate autoregressive). This model dynamically weights historical data to track slow system variations and jointly models the co-oscillations of PMX and PMY residuals. Experiments show that during the 1 to 90 days prediction horizon, the proposed model outperforms mainstream models in both accuracy and stability, with particularly significant improvements for PMY (compared with the classical LS+AR model, a 35.4% reduction in MAE). Day-by-day validation confirms the statistical significance of these improvements. The greater enhancement in PMY accuracy may be physically attributed to the model's enhanced ability to capture the strong seasonal atmospheric excitation that dominates this component. This study provides a high-performance data-driven method for medium- to short-term autonomous prediction of Earth orientation parameters and, through error analysis, links the model's physical mechanisms with geophysical angular momentum excitation functions.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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