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Prediction on Far-Field Triggering Earthquakes in Northeast China Induced by Japanese Strong Earthquakes Based on Deep Learning
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Feng GAO1, Mei LI2
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2026, 46(6) : 710 - 717
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Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2026, 46(6): 710-717
Prediction on Far-Field Triggering Earthquakes in Northeast China Induced by Japanese Strong Earthquakes Based on Deep Learning
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Feng GAO1, Mei LI2
Affiliations
  • 1 Heilongjiang Earthquake Agency, Harbin 150090, China
  • 2 Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, CEA, Beijing 100036, China
Published: 2026-06-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.09.317
Outline
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Far-field earthquake triggering mechanisms represent a critical frontier in earthquake prediction research. To explore the spatiotemporal relationship between strong seismic activity in Japan and moderate-to-strong earthquakes in northeast China, this study develops a data-driven prediction model. Based on the USGS earthquake catalog from 1980 to 2024, and using M≥6.0 earthquakes in Japan as potential triggers, the model predicts the probability of earthquakes with M≥4 occurring in northeast China within the next 60 days. A daily-resolution time series dataset is constructed, incorporating 32-dimensional features covering earthquake statistics, spatial distribution, energy release, and aftershock sequences. Deep learning models including long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, attention mechanism-enhanced LSTM (Attention-LSTM), and Transformer are systematically compared against traditional machine learning methods such as logistic regression and random forest. Results indicate that the Attention-LSTM model performs optimally, achieving an F1 score of 0.915 and an AUC value of 0.661, and shows significant advantages in Molchan error diagram analysis, a method specific to earthquake prediction evaluation. The model enables both binary classification prediction and generation of spatial probability distribution maps at 1°×1° grid resolution. This study demonstrates the potential of deep learning for revealing cross-regional far-field earthquake triggering mechanisms and provides new insights for short-to-medium-term regional seismic hazard assessment.

deep learning  /  attention-based long short-term memory network (Attention-LSTM)  /  far-field earthquake triggering  /  spatiotemporal earthquake forecasting
Feng GAO, Mei LI. Prediction on Far-Field Triggering Earthquakes in Northeast China Induced by Japanese Strong Earthquakes Based on Deep Learning[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2026 , 46 (6) : 710 -717 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.09.317
Year 2026 volume 46 Issue 6
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Article Info
doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.09.317
  • Receive Date:2025-09-17
  • Online Date:2026-07-09
  • Published:2026-06-15
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  • Received:2025-09-17
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    1 Heilongjiang Earthquake Agency, Harbin 150090, China
    2 Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, CEA, Beijing 100036, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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