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Surface Deformation Monitoring and Prediction of Active Rupture of Nanting River by Combining InSAR and ICA-VMD-LSTM
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Wanfu ZHANG1, Sumin LI1, *, Tianwen SUN2, Changquan WU1, Qing CHEN1, Han NIE3
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2026, 46(3) : 349 - 359
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Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2026, 46(3): 349-359
Surface Deformation Monitoring and Prediction of Active Rupture of Nanting River by Combining InSAR and ICA-VMD-LSTM
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Wanfu ZHANG1, Sumin LI1, *, Tianwen SUN2, Changquan WU1, Qing CHEN1, Han NIE3
Affiliations
  • 1 Faculty of Land Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
  • 2 Engineering Investigation and Design Branch, CCCC Infrastructure Maintenance Co Ltd, Beijing 100010, China
  • 3 Faculty of Public Safety and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
Published: 2026-03-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.04.114
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This study employs the SBAS-InSAR technique to process 123 ascending Sentinel-1 images covering the intersected area of the active Nantinghe fault zone and the Nanyun expressway from 2019 to 2023, obtaining the deformation rate map of the intersected area. Combined with independent component analysis (ICA) and remote sensing images, the characteristics of surface deformation are derived. Subsequently, typical points including the intersection positions A1 to A3 of the fault zone and the expressway, as well as the large-span bridge position B, are selected to construct the ICA-VMD-LSTM deformation prediction model. The results indicate that the majority of the study area exhibits deformation rates within ±5 mm/a. The primary deformation patterns include sudden events, seasonal periodic deformation, and long-term linear trends. Compared with the conventional VMD-LSTM model, the proposed ICA-VMD-LSTM model demonstrates superior feature extraction capability and enhanced robustness to noise, thereby improving predictive accuracy. On average, the ICA-VMD-LSTM model achieved reductions of approximately 33.2% and 32.4% in MAE and RMSE, respectively, and an increase of 23.3% in R2, indicating significant improvements in error control and trend representation.

SBAS-InSAR  /  independent component analysis (ICA)  /  variational mode decomposition (VMD)  /  LSTM  /  fracture zone  /  deformation monitoring and prediction
张万福, 李素敏, 孙天文, 吴长全, 陈青, 聂晗. 结合InSAR与ICA-VMD-LSTM的南汀河活动断裂地表形变监测与预测. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2026 , 46 (3) : 349 -359 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.04.114
Wanfu ZHANG, Sumin LI, Tianwen SUN, Changquan WU, Qing CHEN, Han NIE. Surface Deformation Monitoring and Prediction of Active Rupture of Nanting River by Combining InSAR and ICA-VMD-LSTM[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2026 , 46 (3) : 349 -359 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.04.114
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Year 2026 volume 46 Issue 3
39
16
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Article Info
doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.04.114
  • Receive Date：2025-04-04
  • Online Date：2026-10-29
  • Published：2026-03-15
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  • Received：2025-04-04
Funding
Affiliations
    1 Faculty of Land Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
    2 Engineering Investigation and Design Branch, CCCC Infrastructure Maintenance Co Ltd, Beijing 100010, China
    3 Faculty of Public Safety and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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