Full
Outline
A post-earthquake affected population prediction model based on support vector machines(SVM) optimized by particle swarm optimization(PSO) is established, and the SST(safety stock theory) earthquake emergency supply demand prediction model is constructed. Nine indicator parameters, including seismic hazard and damage severity, are selected and processed through dimensionality reduction and redundancy removal as input variables for the PSO-optimized SVM model to predict the affected population. Based on the relationship between the affected population and emergency supplies in disaster areas, the SST model is applied to indirectly estimate the quantities of typical supplies required in the immediate aftermath of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The experimental results are as follows: By employing an error comparison analysis method to validate the model's effectiveness, the PSO-SVM model demonstrates a 14.27% reduction in prediction error compared to the SVM model, with a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. The estimated demand for typical supplies in the aftermath of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake provides a certain degree of reference, indicating that the PSO-SVM-SST prediction model possesses both theoretical and practical rationality and utility.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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