收藏切换
Polar Motion Prediction Method Considering Temporal Variability of Periodic Components
收藏切换
Yuxin ZHOU1, 2, Na WEI2, *
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2025, 45(11) : 1185 - 1191
Less
收藏切换
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics | 2025, 45(11): 1185-1191
Polar Motion Prediction Method Considering Temporal Variability of Periodic Components
Full
Yuxin ZHOU1, 2, Na WEI2, *
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
  • 2 GNSS Research Center, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
  • ZHOU Yuxin, postgraduate, majors in EOP prediction and GNSS geocenter motion inversion, E-mail: .

About Author:

ZHOU Yuxin, postgraduate, majors in EOP prediction and GNSS geocenter motion inversion, E-mail: .

Published: 2025-11-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.11.508
Outline
收藏切换

High-precision polar motion prediction is crucial for applications such as real-time satellite orbit determination and deep space probes navigation. We combine the singular spectrum analysis(SSA) and weighted least squares(WLS) models, which takes into account the temporal variability of periodic components of polar motion. Combining with the auto-regressive(AR) model, we prove the effectiveness of SSA+WLS+AR model in improving the accuracy of polar motion prediction. We analyze the impact of detrending, the length of basic sequence, and the weighting method on the final prediction accuracy of the SSA+WLS+AR model. The results show that in the X direction, the model combination of "no detrending+50-year basic sequence+inverse weighting" has the highest prediction accuracy, while in the Y direction, the model combination of "detrending +50-year basic sequence+inverse weighting" has the highest prediction accuracy. When the prediction span is from 150 to 360 days, the prediction accuracy of SSA+WLS+AR model is better than that of bulletin A provided by international Earth rotation service(IERS), with maximum improvements of 33% and 26% in the X and Y directions, respectively. The prediction results show that the first-day prediction accuracy of polar motion is significantly better using the C04 20 sequence compared to the C04 14 sequence.

polar motion prediction  /  singular spectrum analysis(SSA)  /  weighted least squares(WLS)  /  auto-regressive(AR) model  /  polar motion observation series
周雨欣, 魏娜. 顾及周期项时变性的极移预报方法研究. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2025 , 45 (11) : 1185 -1191 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.11.508
Yuxin ZHOU, Na WEI. Polar Motion Prediction Method Considering Temporal Variability of Periodic Components[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2025 , 45 (11) : 1185 -1191 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.11.508
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China(42174028)
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China(42474030)
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China(41774007)
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 11
30
11
Cite this Article
BibTeX
Article Info
doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.11.508
  • Receive Date:2024-11-06
  • Online Date:2026-10-29
  • Published:2025-11-15
Article Data
Affiliations
History
  • Received:2024-11-06
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42174028)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42474030)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41774007)
Affiliations
    1 School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
    2 GNSS Research Center, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
References
Share
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/ddcl/EN/10.14075/j.jgg.2024.11.508
Share to
QR

Scan QR to access full text

Cite this article
BibTeX
Citations
表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
关闭全屏
  • BibTeX
  • EndNote
  • RefWorks
  • TxT