Full
SUN Qiang, senior engineer, majors in seismic stress field and seismic hazard analysis, E-mail: 2860415183@qq.com
Outline
This paper attempts to link the strength of regional crustal stress with its earthquake occurrence probability, and proposes a method to calculate regional earthquake occurrence probability based on apparent stress data, which mainly solves the following problems: 1) The singular value is calculated using multifractal theory, and the stress rich region, poor region and background region are revealed. 2) A new method of fitting singular value and b value is derived, and b value under the background of singular value are obtained, so that the strength of crustal stress and b value are unified. 3) A suitable method is designed to calculate the shear stress loading rate of the reference area, and then other shear stress loading rate value are calculated by using the specified formula. 4) When the lognormal model is used to calculate the probability of earthquake occurrence, the fixed integral is used to process the model parameters, and the error of shear stress loading rate is the main source of the uncertainty of the result. 5) Compared with the normal distribution model and the BPT model, it is found that the lognormal distribution model agrees well with the normal distribution model, but there is a big difference between the lognormal distribution model and the BPT model, which may be due to the different algorithms of each model. 6) According to the calculation and analysis, the areas with a higher probability of earthquake occurrence of magnitude 5 or above in the study region are located within the enclosed areas of Yiyuan-Linqu-Anqiu-Zhucheng-Yishui, Yishui-Wulian-Juxian-Yinan and Linqu-Changle in the north of the study area. The conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in 10 years is up to 0.034, and the cumulative probability is up to 0.861. The conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in 30 years is up to 0.097, and the cumulative probability is up to 0.87.The conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in 50 years is up to 0.15, and the cumulative probability is up to 0.878.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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