To investigate the evolution pattern of ecological security in Qinghai Province， in this study we constructed an evaluation system based on the PSR （Pressure-State-Response） framework， integrated obstacle degree analysis with residual-corrected GM（1，1）-Verhulst modeling to identify constraining factors and conduct short-term forecasting. The results revealed that the comprehensive ecological security index in Qinghai Province increased from 0.54 to 0.66 during 2005-2023， with the security level upgrading from “Critical Security （Grade Ⅲ）” to “Relatively Secure （Grade Ⅳ）”. The evolution followed a trajectory of “response strengthening-state improvement-comprehensive enhancement”. Spatial distribution exhibited an “east-high west-stable” differentiation pattern， with eastern regions achieving the “Very Secure（Grade Ⅴ）” level ahead of others. The obstacle mechanism transitioned from early “pressure-dominated” to “state-response dual-constraint” type， indicating that ecosystem structural quality and environmental governance capacity have become critical limiting factors. Short-term prediction suggested that the ecological security index would approach 0.73 by 2028， stably maintaining a high-level “Relatively Secure（Grade Ⅳ）” status. Future efforts should shift from response enhancement to ecosystem resilience improvement， implementing differentiated zoning strategies to support national ecological security barrier construction.

Ecological security  /  Improved grey model  /  Evolution prediction  /  Obstacle degree