Taking the grassland in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin as the research object， based on multi-source data from 2000 to 2023， the degradation problem was analyzed from the dual perspectives of “grassland coverage type transformation + degradation evaluation index system”， and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the future degradation pattern. The results showed that： （1） The grassland is mainly composed of medium coverage grassland. Over the past 23 years， the total area of grassland has decreased by 2201.60 km²， and the coverage conversion has fluctuated greatly， showing obvious spatial differentiation characteristics. （2） The proportion of un-degradation grassland has decreased from 59.77% to 54.62%， showed an overall “one decrease and three increases” degradation feature. Spatially， it presented a pattern of “low in the southwest and high in the northeast”， and the area of regions with increased degradation grades was larger than that of regions with decreased grades. （3） By 2030， the proportion of un-degradation grassland will further decline， while the proportions of mild， moderate and severe degradation grassland will increase， and the degradation trend will continue to intensify. The research can provide a scientific basis for regional grassland protection and management.

Grassland utilization dynamic changes  /  Grassland degradation  /  CA-Markov model  /  Upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin