Acta Agrestia Sinica
|
2026, 34(4): 1430-1442
Prediction of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Orinus (Poaceae), an Endemic Genus to the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under the Background of Climate Change
Full
CAIRANG Zha-xi1,2, LIU Yu-ping1,2,3, SU Xu1,2,3, QU Rong-ju1,2, WEI Kai-yue1,2, FENG Xu1,2, SUN Cheng-lin1,2, ZHANG Kai-qi1
Affiliations
1 School of Life Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;
2 Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Formation Mechanism and Comprehensive Utilization of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in Qinghai Province, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;
3 Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810016, China
doi: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.04.025
Outline
This study aimed to clarify the potential suitable habitats of three Orinus species, including O. thoroldii, O. kokonoricus and O. intermedius, under the background of climate change. Based on the data of species distribution records and climate variables, MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were applied to conduct spatial simulation and prediction of three Orinus species. The results showed that the predictive accuracy was high (AUC>0.95). The key environmental factor influencing habitat suitability was altitude for O. thoroldii, the mean temperature of the wettest quarter was the main factor for O. kokonoricus, while the mean diurnal temperature range was the key one for O. intermedius. From the Last Interglacial to the Mid-Holocene, the suitable area for O. thoroldii and O. kokonoricus decreased, while that for O. intermedius increased. Under the future climate scenarios, the suitable area of O. thoroldii and O. kokonoricus showed an initial increase followed by a decrease, whereas the opposite trend was observed for O. intermedius. Currently, the high suitable area of O. thoroldii was mainly located in the southwest of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, that of O. kokonoricus was in the east of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, while that of O. intermedius was in the central part and northeast of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. We thought that the high suitable habitat of Orinus species was in the southwest, east, northeast and central parts of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. It is suggested to strengthen in situ protection to cope with the pressure brought by future climate change.
Orinus
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Climate change
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Potential suitable habitat
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MaxEnt model
才让扎西, 刘玉萍, 苏旭, 曲荣举, 韦凯悦, 冯旭, 孙成林, 张凯棋.
气候变化背景下青藏高原特有属固沙草属物种潜在适生区预测.
草地学报,
2026
, 34
(4)
: 1430
-1442
.
DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.04.025
CAIRANG Zha-xi, LIU Yu-ping, SU Xu, QU Rong-ju, WEI Kai-yue, FENG Xu, SUN Cheng-lin, ZHANG Kai-qi.
Prediction of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Orinus (Poaceae), an Endemic Genus to the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under the Background of Climate Change[J].
Acta Agrestia Sinica,
2026
, 34
(4)
: 1430
-1442
.
DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.04.025
Year 2026 volume 34 Issue 4
113
19
Cite this Article
BibTeX
Article Info
doi: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.04.025
- Receive Date:2025-05-21
- Online Date:2026-09-23