To investigate the impact of compound drought and hot events （CH） on the productivity and phenology of forage oats （Avena sativa L.） in Shuozhou， and to explore how the accumulated temperature requirements during the growth period of forage oats should be adjusted for coping with such events， this study utilized validated APSIM （Agricultural Production System sIMulator）to conduct simulation analysis at six sites in Shuozhou within baseline and future scenarios in combination with climate model. Based on APSIM model validation （2023 aboveground biomass Normalized Root Mean Square Erro： 9.19%， 2022—2023 soil moisture NRMSE： 25.69%） and scenario simulations， the results indicate that future climatic hazards in Northern Shanxi will be intensified. By the 2070s， the frequency， duration， and intensity of CH would generally increase with a decreasing trend from east to west. This led to a reduction in forage oat yield of 2046.2 kg·hm^-2 during CH-occurring years compared to the multi-year average. Furthermore， the durations from emergence to initial flowering and from initial flowering to full flowering were prolonged by 0.97 days and 0.26 days， respectively. However， optimizing cultivar selection based on site-specific climate conditions could increase forage yield by 1.95% to 23.65%.The results of this study could provide a theoretical basis for forage oats production to cope with CH， and offer some guidance for breeding strategy and field management of forage oats in the future.

APSIM  /  Forage oats  /  Compound drought and hot event  /  Climate change