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Riser deployment is an important step in deepwater drilling, during which the spider is the primary support of the riser system. At the same time, the harsh deepwater environment leads to a high risk of riser deployment. To ensure the safety of riser deployment, firstly, a joint distribution model of environmental parameters was constructed. Then, an intelligent prediction model of structural response based on IAGA-BRNN was determined. Finally, the method of structure reliability assessment for riser deployment was established combining Monte Carlo, and a case study was carried out. Results show that most parameters in the joint distribution model of environment obey Weibull distribution and Beta distribution. The prediction model proposed in this paper performs well in all the prediction indicators, and has a stronger prediction ability compared with the conventional prediction model. The equivalent stress and maximum axial force are the first and secondary limitation factors of the riser deployment. In addition, as the number of hang-off riser increases, the reliability is on the decline, and wave height is the main limiting factor of operational reliability.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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