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Prediction Method of Polar Navigation Window Period Based on Risk Evaluation
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Jia-qi JIANGa, Gui-jie SHIb, De-yu WANGa, b
Journal of Ship Mechanics | 2025, 29(6) : 986 - 999
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Journal of Ship Mechanics | 2025, 29(6): 986-999
• Structural Mechanics •
Prediction Method of Polar Navigation Window Period Based on Risk Evaluation
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Jia-qi JIANGa, Gui-jie SHIb, De-yu WANGa, b
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Published: 2025-06-20 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7294.2025.06.012
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With the increase of international trade activities and the gradual melting of the polar ice cap, the importance of the Arctic route for marine transportation has been emphasized. Prediction of the polar navigation window period is crucial for navigating in the Arctic route, which is of great significance to the selection of the route and the optimization of navigation. This paper introduces the establishment of a risk index system, determination of risk index weight, establishment of a risk evaluation model, and prediction algorithm for the window period. In addition, data sources of both environmental factors and ship factors are introducted, and their shortcomings are analyzed, followed by introduction of various methods involved in window prediction and analysis of their advantages and disadvantages. The quantitative risk evaluation and window period algorithm can provide a reference for the research of polar navigation window period prediction.

window period  /  risk evaluation  /  polar navigation  /  risk index
Jia-qi JIANG, Gui-jie SHI, De-yu WANG. Prediction Method of Polar Navigation Window Period Based on Risk Evaluation[J]. Journal of Ship Mechanics, 2025 , 29 (6) : 986 -999 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7294.2025.06.012
Funding
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  • National Natural Science Foundation of China(51979163; U2241266; 51809168)
  • Marine Equipment Foresight Innovation Union Project(ZCJDQZ202304B02)
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Year 2025 volume 29 Issue 6
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Article Info
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7294.2025.06.012
  • Receive Date：2024-12-28
  • Online Date：2026-03-24
  • Published：2025-06-20
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  • Received：2024-12-28
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China(51979163; U2241266; 51809168)
Marine Equipment Foresight Innovation Union Project(ZCJDQZ202304B02)
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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