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A single-degree-of-freedom model was established to describe the roll motion of ships under combined effect of wind and wave, then the accuracy of the numerical model was verified by model tests. The time history of roll motion responses in various sea conditions was calculated by the numerical method. The Gumbel method and average conditional exceedance rate (ACER) method were used to predict the extreme value of ship roll motion response. Then based on the extreme value prediction theory, an efficient method for evaluating the ship capsizing probabilities was established. The Monte Carlo method and Level 2 vulnerability criteria for dead ship stability were employed to validate the feasibility of the evaluation method. The research demonstrates the suitability of both the Gumbel method and the average conditional exceedance rate method in predicting the extreme value distribution of ship roll motion in various sea condition, while the average conditional exceedance rate method has a higher accuracy. Compared to the traditional Monte Carlo method, the ship capsizing probability evaluation method proposed in this paper could ensure the accuracy and improve the calculation efficiency. The research in this work could provide references for the dead ship stability evaluation as well as for the safety of ships at seas.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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