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Research on body weight prediction of cage-raised meat ducks based on a tree-based machine learning model
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Pengjun Wang1, 4, Yongsheng Chen1, 2, 4, Lei Chen3, Aibing Wu1, 2, 4, Zhizhong Shi3, Mingjiang Chen1, 4
Journal of Intelligent Agricultural Mechanization | 2026, 7(2) : 193 - 200
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Journal of Intelligent Agricultural Mechanization | 2026, 7(2): 193-200
Research on body weight prediction of cage-raised meat ducks based on a tree-based machine learning model
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Pengjun Wang1, 4, Yongsheng Chen1, 2, 4, Lei Chen3, Aibing Wu1, 2, 4, Zhizhong Shi3, Mingjiang Chen1, 4
Affiliations
  • 1.Nanjing Institute of Agricultural Mechanization, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Nanjing 210014, China
  • 2.Western research institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changji 831100, China
  • 3.Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Machinery Technology Promotion Station, Nanjing 211000, China
  • 4.Key Laboratory of Modern Agricultural Equipment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Nanjing 210014, China
  • Wang Pengjun, E-mail:

About Author:

Wang Pengjun, E-mail:

Published: 2026-05-15 doi: 10.12398/j.issn.2096-7217.2026.02.018
Outline
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To address difficulties and inefficiencies in monitoring duck weight during the routine inspection of cage-raised meat ducks, this study proposes a precise body weight prediction method utilizing a tree-based machine learning algorithm, aiming to enhance the stability and accuracy of weight prediction in complex scenarios of large-scale meat duck production. Unilateral body size and age data were manually collected from meat ducks at Shuyang Xinfeng Future Farm to develop an extreme gradient boosting model predicting weight. The model integrated morphometric features and chronological age as predictors to evaluate their respective impacts on body weight estimation. The results indicate a distinct growth trajectory: for ducks 1-13 days, data collection is hindered by their small body size, and weight growth is relatively slow, making this period less critical for weight prediction modeling. Conversely, ducks aged 14 to 35 days undergo a rapid growth phase, representing a critical period in the production cycle during which age and unilateral body size serve as pivotal predictors. The Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree model effectively predicted the weight of meat ducks, achieving an optimal R2 of 0.95, a minimum mean squared error (MSE) of 0.563 kg2, and a minimum mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.044 kg. Furthermore, by evaluating the importance of unilateral body size data of meat ducks, it is concluded that body slant length, as the main parameter of meat duck development, contributes the most to the model among body size data, accounting for 20.7% (second only to age) while tibia length exhibited the weakest correlation, contributing only 4.8%. This study not only deepens the understanding of machine learning application in meat duck weight prediction but also provides a valuable method for selection and management in non-contact meat duck weight analysis scenarios. Additionally, it offers technical support for improving model accuracy and promoting the development of intelligent cage-raised meat duck farming, and provides an effective automated solution for weight monitoring via inspection robots.

machine learning  /  cage-raised meat ducks  /  weight prediction  /  extreme gradient boosting tree  /  age  /  body size
王鹏军, 陈永生, 陈雷, 吴爱兵, 史志中, 陈明江. 基于树形机器学习模型的笼养肉鸭体重预测研究. 智能化农业装备学报(中英文), 2026 , 7 (2) : 193 -200 . DOI: 10.12398/j.issn.2096-7217.2026.02.018
Pengjun Wang, Yongsheng Chen, Lei Chen, Aibing Wu, Zhizhong Shi, Mingjiang Chen. Research on body weight prediction of cage-raised meat ducks based on a tree-based machine learning model[J]. Journal of Intelligent Agricultural Mechanization, 2026 , 7 (2) : 193 -200 . DOI: 10.12398/j.issn.2096-7217.2026.02.018
  • Key Research and Development Plan of Jiangsu Province(BE2022318)
  • National Key Research and Development Program Project(2023YFD1701602)
  • Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program
Year 2026 volume 7 Issue 2
48
13
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Article Info
doi: 10.12398/j.issn.2096-7217.2026.02.018
  • Receive Date:2026-03-10
  • Online Date:2026-11-05
  • Published:2026-05-15
Article Data
Affiliations
History
  • Received:2026-03-10
  • Revised:2026-04-15
Funding
Key Research and Development Plan of Jiangsu Province(BE2022318)
National Key Research and Development Program Project(2023YFD1701602)
Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program
Affiliations
    1.Nanjing Institute of Agricultural Mechanization, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Nanjing 210014, China
    2.Western research institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changji 831100, China
    3.Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Machinery Technology Promotion Station, Nanjing 211000, China
    4.Key Laboratory of Modern Agricultural Equipment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Nanjing 210014, China

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* Chen Yongsheng, E-mail:
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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