Article(id=1281678098299065326, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281213114968444942, issueId=1281678071572968253, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.19775/j.cla.2026.03.0045, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1716393600000, receivedDateStr=2024-05-23, revisedDate=1739808000000, revisedDateStr=2025-02-18, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783505471061, onlineDateStr=2026-07-08, pubDate=1773072000000, pubDateStr=2026-03-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783505471061, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783505471061, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783505471061, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1281678071572968253, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281213114968444942, year='2026', volume='42', issue='3', pageStart='6', pageEnd='152', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1773072000000', pubDateStr='2026-03-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783505464690, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783507756103, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1281687682514399699, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281213114968444942, issueId=1281678071572968253, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1281687682514399700, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281213114968444942, issueId=1281678071572968253, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=45, endPage=52, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1281678098521363439, articleId=1281678098299065326, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281213114968444942, language=EN, title=Study on Carbon Neutrality Effect of Park Green Space Construction: Carbon Neutrality Prediction Model and Application Simulation Based on Trees and Buildings, columnId=1281678081307939726, journalTitle=Chinese Landscape Architecture, columnName=LA Theory, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Under the "dual carbon" goals, urban parks, as important green infrastructure, play an increasingly prominent role in addressing climate change through their carbon sequestration functions. Research has shown that plants in green spaces can absorb a portion of carbon emissions in urban areas, achieving carbon neutrality when the carbon sequestration capacity of plants offsets the carbon emissions. However, the timing of when park green spaces can achieve carbon neutrality has been rarely studied, and existing research faces limitations in guiding engineering practices. Despite numerous scholars calculating annual carbon sequestration rates, the growth rate of trees is not linearly increasing, and current studies often overlook the massive embedded carbon emissions from park buildings despite their small footprint, leading to incomplete assessments. This study aims to develop a carbon neutrality timing prediction model based on the bill of quantities. To ensure the model's applicability across different climate zones, we collected engineering quantity lists and design drawings from 20 park projects in eastern and southern China, extracting seedling specifications, quantities, and building material data. We calculated the carbon sequestration increment of each tree within a specified period based on the diameter at breast height (DBH) - biomass allometric growth equation, and established a fitting equation with the increment of DBH (ΔDBH). The model utilizes the Chapman-Richards growth equation to simulate the non-linear growth process of trees, accounting for the fact that tree growth rates decrease with age rather than maintaining linear progression. Subsequently, by setting the carbon emissions from buildings in the park as the target, we used the fitting equation to solve for the remaining ΔDBH and infer the duration of tree growth required to achieve carbon neutrality, thereby predicting the timing of carbon neutrality. The specifications of trees and buildings in two virtual parks (A and B) are based on project data from parks in eastern and southern China and are applied in the validation of the prediction model. After data standardization, Parks A and B showed carbon sequestration capacities of 2,371.65 and 2,156.29 t, respectively, while their building carbon emissions reached 6,485.64 and 6,198.42 t, respectively. Current carbon sequestration only offsets approximately 35% of building carbon emissions in both parks. The results indicate that the predicted dates for both parks to achieve carbon neutrality (October 2038 and April 2035) are significantly later than the dates predicted directly based on linear carbon sequestration rates (April 2032 and May 2030), with error margins of 56.7% and 57.7%, respectively. Park A requires an additional 9.8 cm DBH growth per tree, while Park B needs 8.9 cm growth per tree. Economic analysis revealed that the total construction costs (seedlings + building materials) were 15.84 million and 20.26 million yuan for Parks A and B, respectively, with current ecological economic benefits of 3.46 million and 3.15 million yuan, indicating that ecological benefit balance points would be reached earlier than carbon neutrality timing. The study integrated the data processing and calculation workflow into a Python-based software tool, enabling automated analysis from engineering list import to result visualization. This paper emphasizes that achieving carbon neutrality solely through tree carbon sinks requires an extremely long time period, and the carbon neutrality duration can be significantly shortened by using local materials and zero-carbon building materials such as Cross Laminated Timber (CLT). When different proportions of conventional building materials are replaced with CLT, the carbon neutrality timeline can be substantially reduced, with complete replacement potentially achieving immediate carbon neutrality. This research provides a carbon neutrality prediction model and methodology for urban park development, which can be directly calculated based on the bill of quantities, significantly reducing workload and offering practical guidance for optimizing solutions for enterprises and decision-makers in low-carbon oriented park design and management.

, authors=Hong YUAN, Ziyi LIU, Yijing ZHOU, Haozhe QIN, Jizhong SHAO*, authorsList=Hong YUAN, Ziyi LIU, Yijing ZHOU, Haozhe QIN, Jizhong SHAO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Jizhong SHAO, authorNote=

YUAN Hong, female, born in 1982 in Chongqing, Ph.D., Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: smart city, low-carbon city (Chengdu 611756)

LIU Ziyi, male, born in 1996 in Anqiu, Shandong Province, Ph.D. candidate at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: digital landscape, computational urban design (Chengdu 611756)

ZHOU Yijing, female, born in 2002 in Changde, Hunan Province, Master's student at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: urban design (Chengdu 611756)

QIN Haozhe, male, born in 2002 in Weinan, Shaanxi Province, Undergraduate student at the School of Urban Railway Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: intelligent construction (Chengdu 611756)

SHAO Jizhong, male, born in 1979 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, Ph.D., Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Special Editor of Chinese Landscape Architecture, research area: theory and method of climate initiative design for landscape architecture, digital urban design (Wuhan 430070)

, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1281678098873684976, articleId=1281678098299065326, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281213114968444942, language=CN, title=公园绿地建设的碳中和效应研究:基于乔木与建筑物的碳中和预测模型与应用模拟, columnId=1281678083010827152, journalTitle=中国园林, columnName=风景园林理论, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

城市绿地的碳中和时间节点尚不明确,而乔木年固碳速率的计算往往缺乏对非线性生长速率的考虑。因此,首先,依据胸径-生物量模型计算出规定时间内每株乔木的固碳量增量,并与胸径增量(ΔDBH)建立了拟合方程。其次,以公园中建筑物碳排放量为目标,通过拟合方程求解出剩余的ΔDBH,并反推出树木还需生长的时长,从而实现碳中和时间点的预测。2个虚拟公园(A与B)的乔木、建筑物规格均基于华东与华南地区的公园项目资料建立,并被应用于预测模型的验证工作中。结果表明,2个公园达到碳中和的预测日期(2038年10月、2035年4月)皆晚于直接通过固碳速率预测的日期(2032年4月、2030年5月),误差率分别为56.7%与57.7%。研究强调,完全依赖乔木碳汇中和建筑建材碳排放需要很长时间,而就地取材、使用零碳建材等措施会大幅缩短碳中和时长。研究为城市公园建设提供了一套碳中和预测模型和软件,能够基于项目工程量清单直接计算,大幅降低了工作量,并为企业与决策者提供了方案优化的指导信息。

, authors=袁红, 刘子奕, 周亦璟, 秦浩喆, 邵继中*, authorsList=袁红, 刘子奕, 周亦璟, 秦浩喆, 邵继中, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=邵继中, authorNote=

袁红 1982年生/女/重庆人/博士/西南交通大学建筑学院教授,博士生导师/研究方向为智慧城市、低碳城市(成都 611756)

刘子奕 1996年生/男/山东安丘人/西南交通大学建筑学院在读博士研究生/研究方向为数字景观、计算性城市设计(成都 611756)

周亦璟 2002年生/女/湖南常德人/西南交通大学建筑学院在读硕士研究生/研究方向为城市设计(成都 611756)

秦浩喆 2002年生/男/陕西渭南人/西南交通大学城市轨道交通学院本科生/研究方向为智能建造(成都 611756)

邵继中 1979年生/男/江苏南京人/博士/华中农业大学园艺林学学院教授,博士生导师/研究方向为风景园林气候积极性设计理论及方法、数字城市设计/本刊特约编辑(武汉 430070)

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YUAN Hong, female, born in 1982 in Chongqing, Ph.D., Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: smart city, low-carbon city (Chengdu 611756)

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YUAN Hong, female, born in 1982 in Chongqing, Ph.D., Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: smart city, low-carbon city (Chengdu 611756)

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袁红 1982年生/女/重庆人/博士/西南交通大学建筑学院教授,博士生导师/研究方向为智慧城市、低碳城市(成都 611756)

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袁红 1982年生/女/重庆人/博士/西南交通大学建筑学院教授,博士生导师/研究方向为智慧城市、低碳城市(成都 611756)

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LIU Ziyi, male, born in 1996 in Anqiu, Shandong Province, Ph.D. candidate at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: digital landscape, computational urban design (Chengdu 611756)

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LIU Ziyi, male, born in 1996 in Anqiu, Shandong Province, Ph.D. candidate at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: digital landscape, computational urban design (Chengdu 611756)

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刘子奕 1996年生/男/山东安丘人/西南交通大学建筑学院在读博士研究生/研究方向为数字景观、计算性城市设计(成都 611756)

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刘子奕 1996年生/男/山东安丘人/西南交通大学建筑学院在读博士研究生/研究方向为数字景观、计算性城市设计(成都 611756)

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ZHOU Yijing, female, born in 2002 in Changde, Hunan Province, Master's student at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: urban design (Chengdu 611756)

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ZHOU Yijing, female, born in 2002 in Changde, Hunan Province, Master's student at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: urban design (Chengdu 611756)

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周亦璟 2002年生/女/湖南常德人/西南交通大学建筑学院在读硕士研究生/研究方向为城市设计(成都 611756)

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周亦璟 2002年生/女/湖南常德人/西南交通大学建筑学院在读硕士研究生/研究方向为城市设计(成都 611756)

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QIN Haozhe, male, born in 2002 in Weinan, Shaanxi Province, Undergraduate student at the School of Urban Railway Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: intelligent construction (Chengdu 611756)

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QIN Haozhe, male, born in 2002 in Weinan, Shaanxi Province, Undergraduate student at the School of Urban Railway Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: intelligent construction (Chengdu 611756)

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秦浩喆 2002年生/男/陕西渭南人/西南交通大学城市轨道交通学院本科生/研究方向为智能建造(成都 611756)

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秦浩喆 2002年生/男/陕西渭南人/西南交通大学城市轨道交通学院本科生/研究方向为智能建造(成都 611756)

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SHAO Jizhong, male, born in 1979 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, Ph.D., Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Special Editor of Chinese Landscape Architecture, research area: theory and method of climate initiative design for landscape architecture, digital urban design (Wuhan 430070)

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SHAO Jizhong, male, born in 1979 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, Ph.D., Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Special Editor of Chinese Landscape Architecture, research area: theory and method of climate initiative design for landscape architecture, digital urban design (Wuhan 430070)

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邵继中 1979年生/男/江苏南京人/博士/华中农业大学园艺林学学院教授,博士生导师/研究方向为风景园林气候积极性设计理论及方法、数字城市设计/本刊特约编辑(武汉 430070)

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邵继中 1979年生/男/江苏南京人/博士/华中农业大学园艺林学学院教授,博士生导师/研究方向为风景园林气候积极性设计理论及方法、数字城市设计/本刊特约编辑(武汉 430070)

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公园绿地建设的碳中和效应研究:基于乔木与建筑物的碳中和预测模型与应用模拟
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袁红 , 刘子奕 , 周亦璟 , 秦浩喆 , 邵继中 *
中国园林 | 风景园林理论 2026,42(3): 45-52
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中国园林 |风景园林理论 2026 , 42 (3) : 45 -52
公园绿地建设的碳中和效应研究:基于乔木与建筑物的碳中和预测模型与应用模拟
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秦浩喆 2002年生/男/陕西渭南人/西南交通大学城市轨道交通学院本科生/研究方向为智能建造(成都 611756)

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SHAO Jizhong, male, born in 1979 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, Ph.D., Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Special Editor of Chinese Landscape Architecture, research area: theory and method of climate initiative design for landscape architecture, digital urban design (Wuhan 430070)

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邵继中 1979年生/男/江苏南京人/博士/华中农业大学园艺林学学院教授,博士生导师/研究方向为风景园林气候积极性设计理论及方法、数字城市设计/本刊特约编辑(武汉 430070)

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邵继中 1979年生/男/江苏南京人/博士/华中农业大学园艺林学学院教授,博士生导师/研究方向为风景园林气候积极性设计理论及方法、数字城市设计/本刊特约编辑(武汉 430070)

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袁红, 刘子奕, 周亦璟, 秦浩喆, 邵继中*
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袁红 1982年生/女/重庆人/博士/西南交通大学建筑学院教授,博士生导师/研究方向为智慧城市、低碳城市(成都 611756)

刘子奕 1996年生/男/山东安丘人/西南交通大学建筑学院在读博士研究生/研究方向为数字景观、计算性城市设计(成都 611756)

周亦璟 2002年生/女/湖南常德人/西南交通大学建筑学院在读硕士研究生/研究方向为城市设计(成都 611756)

秦浩喆 2002年生/男/陕西渭南人/西南交通大学城市轨道交通学院本科生/研究方向为智能建造(成都 611756)

邵继中 1979年生/男/江苏南京人/博士/华中农业大学园艺林学学院教授,博士生导师/研究方向为风景园林气候积极性设计理论及方法、数字城市设计/本刊特约编辑(武汉 430070)

Study on Carbon Neutrality Effect of Park Green Space Construction: Carbon Neutrality Prediction Model and Application Simulation Based on Trees and Buildings
Hong YUAN, Ziyi LIU, Yijing ZHOU, Haozhe QIN, Jizhong SHAO*
Affiliations

    YUAN Hong, female, born in 1982 in Chongqing, Ph.D., Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: smart city, low-carbon city (Chengdu 611756)

    LIU Ziyi, male, born in 1996 in Anqiu, Shandong Province, Ph.D. candidate at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: digital landscape, computational urban design (Chengdu 611756)

    ZHOU Yijing, female, born in 2002 in Changde, Hunan Province, Master's student at the School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: urban design (Chengdu 611756)

    QIN Haozhe, male, born in 2002 in Weinan, Shaanxi Province, Undergraduate student at the School of Urban Railway Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, research area: intelligent construction (Chengdu 611756)

    SHAO Jizhong, male, born in 1979 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, Ph.D., Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Special Editor of Chinese Landscape Architecture, research area: theory and method of climate initiative design for landscape architecture, digital urban design (Wuhan 430070)

出版时间: 2026-03-10 doi: 10.19775/j.cla.2026.03.0045
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城市绿地的碳中和时间节点尚不明确,而乔木年固碳速率的计算往往缺乏对非线性生长速率的考虑。因此,首先,依据胸径-生物量模型计算出规定时间内每株乔木的固碳量增量,并与胸径增量(ΔDBH)建立了拟合方程。其次,以公园中建筑物碳排放量为目标,通过拟合方程求解出剩余的ΔDBH,并反推出树木还需生长的时长,从而实现碳中和时间点的预测。2个虚拟公园(A与B)的乔木、建筑物规格均基于华东与华南地区的公园项目资料建立,并被应用于预测模型的验证工作中。结果表明,2个公园达到碳中和的预测日期(2038年10月、2035年4月)皆晚于直接通过固碳速率预测的日期(2032年4月、2030年5月),误差率分别为56.7%与57.7%。研究强调,完全依赖乔木碳汇中和建筑建材碳排放需要很长时间,而就地取材、使用零碳建材等措施会大幅缩短碳中和时长。研究为城市公园建设提供了一套碳中和预测模型和软件,能够基于项目工程量清单直接计算,大幅降低了工作量,并为企业与决策者提供了方案优化的指导信息。

风景园林  /  固碳  /  生物量  /  拟合  /  胸径  /  建筑材料

Under the "dual carbon" goals, urban parks, as important green infrastructure, play an increasingly prominent role in addressing climate change through their carbon sequestration functions. Research has shown that plants in green spaces can absorb a portion of carbon emissions in urban areas, achieving carbon neutrality when the carbon sequestration capacity of plants offsets the carbon emissions. However, the timing of when park green spaces can achieve carbon neutrality has been rarely studied, and existing research faces limitations in guiding engineering practices. Despite numerous scholars calculating annual carbon sequestration rates, the growth rate of trees is not linearly increasing, and current studies often overlook the massive embedded carbon emissions from park buildings despite their small footprint, leading to incomplete assessments. This study aims to develop a carbon neutrality timing prediction model based on the bill of quantities. To ensure the model's applicability across different climate zones, we collected engineering quantity lists and design drawings from 20 park projects in eastern and southern China, extracting seedling specifications, quantities, and building material data. We calculated the carbon sequestration increment of each tree within a specified period based on the diameter at breast height (DBH) - biomass allometric growth equation, and established a fitting equation with the increment of DBH (ΔDBH). The model utilizes the Chapman-Richards growth equation to simulate the non-linear growth process of trees, accounting for the fact that tree growth rates decrease with age rather than maintaining linear progression. Subsequently, by setting the carbon emissions from buildings in the park as the target, we used the fitting equation to solve for the remaining ΔDBH and infer the duration of tree growth required to achieve carbon neutrality, thereby predicting the timing of carbon neutrality. The specifications of trees and buildings in two virtual parks (A and B) are based on project data from parks in eastern and southern China and are applied in the validation of the prediction model. After data standardization, Parks A and B showed carbon sequestration capacities of 2,371.65 and 2,156.29 t, respectively, while their building carbon emissions reached 6,485.64 and 6,198.42 t, respectively. Current carbon sequestration only offsets approximately 35% of building carbon emissions in both parks. The results indicate that the predicted dates for both parks to achieve carbon neutrality (October 2038 and April 2035) are significantly later than the dates predicted directly based on linear carbon sequestration rates (April 2032 and May 2030), with error margins of 56.7% and 57.7%, respectively. Park A requires an additional 9.8 cm DBH growth per tree, while Park B needs 8.9 cm growth per tree. Economic analysis revealed that the total construction costs (seedlings + building materials) were 15.84 million and 20.26 million yuan for Parks A and B, respectively, with current ecological economic benefits of 3.46 million and 3.15 million yuan, indicating that ecological benefit balance points would be reached earlier than carbon neutrality timing. The study integrated the data processing and calculation workflow into a Python-based software tool, enabling automated analysis from engineering list import to result visualization. This paper emphasizes that achieving carbon neutrality solely through tree carbon sinks requires an extremely long time period, and the carbon neutrality duration can be significantly shortened by using local materials and zero-carbon building materials such as Cross Laminated Timber (CLT). When different proportions of conventional building materials are replaced with CLT, the carbon neutrality timeline can be substantially reduced, with complete replacement potentially achieving immediate carbon neutrality. This research provides a carbon neutrality prediction model and methodology for urban park development, which can be directly calculated based on the bill of quantities, significantly reducing workload and offering practical guidance for optimizing solutions for enterprises and decision-makers in low-carbon oriented park design and management.

landscape architecture  /  biomass  /  building material  /  carbon sequestration  /  diameter at breast height  /  fitting model
袁红, 刘子奕, 周亦璟, 秦浩喆, 邵继中. 公园绿地建设的碳中和效应研究:基于乔木与建筑物的碳中和预测模型与应用模拟. 中国园林, 2026 , 42 (3) : 45 -52 . DOI: 10.19775/j.cla.2026.03.0045
Hong YUAN, Ziyi LIU, Yijing ZHOU, Haozhe QIN, Jizhong SHAO. Study on Carbon Neutrality Effect of Park Green Space Construction: Carbon Neutrality Prediction Model and Application Simulation Based on Trees and Buildings[J]. Chinese Landscape Architecture, 2026 , 42 (3) : 45 -52 . DOI: 10.19775/j.cla.2026.03.0045
  • 教育部项目人文社科一般项目(22YJCZH226)
  • 四川省国际科技创新合作/港澳台科技创新合作项目(2024YFHZ0220)
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doi: 10.19775/j.cla.2026.03.0045
  • 接收时间:2024-05-23
  • 首发时间:2026-07-08
  • 出版时间:2026-03-10
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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-23
  • 修回日期:2025-02-18
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教育部项目人文社科一般项目(22YJCZH226)
四川省国际科技创新合作/港澳台科技创新合作项目(2024YFHZ0220)
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
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Number of
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种数
Number of
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Percentage of
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Genus
种数
Number of
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占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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