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Article(id=1321170587381248415, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1321170520196895605, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1145749, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1724083200000, receivedDateStr=2024-08-20, revisedDate=1730822400000, revisedDateStr=2024-11-06, acceptedDate=1733241600000, acceptedDateStr=2024-12-04, onlineDate=1792921214194, onlineDateStr=2026-10-25, pubDate=1741536000000, pubDateStr=2025-03-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792921214194, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-25, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792921214194, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792921214194, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1321170520196895605, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2025', volume='41', issue='3', pageStart='257', pageEnd='384', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1741536000000', pubDateStr='2025-03-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792921198175, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792921198175, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=263, endPage=269, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1321170587620323744, articleId=1321170587381248415, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Age-period-cohort analysis of intestinal obstruction incidence trends among Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021, columnId=1321170564291604713, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Special Report–Research on Disease Burden, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To understand the incidence trends of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021 and to provide a scientific basis for formulating precise prevention and control measures for intestinal obstruction.

Methods

Data on the number of cases, incidence rate, and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Descriptive analysis and Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate the trends in the incidence of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to assess the age, period, and cohort effects on the risk of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents.

Results

The incidence rates of intestinal obstruction in the total population, male residents, and female residents of China increased from 204.411/100 000, 227.272/100 000, and 179.973/100 000 in 1992 to 231.393/100 000, 259.508/100 000, and 201.923/100 000 in 2021, respectively. The ASIR decreased from 220.367/100 000, 247.453/100 000, and 192.676/100 000 in 1992 to 198.500/100 000, 226.548/100 000, and 170.553/100 000 in 2021, respectively. The AAPC values of ASIR were –0.355%, –0.302%, and –0.410% (all P<0.01), respectively. The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of the incidence of intestinal obstruction in the total population, male residents, and female residents of China showed an overall upward trend with increasing age. The age effect coefficients increased from 0.126, 0.103, and 0.183 for ages 0–4 years to 0.413, 0.725, and 0.453 for ages ≥95 years, respectively. The period effect of the incidence of intestinal obstruction in the total population, male residents, and female residents of China showed an overall downward trend over time. The period effect coefficients decreased from 1.000, 1.008, and 0.993 for the period 1992–1996 to 0.942, 0.958, and 0.920 for the period 2017–2021, respectively. The cohort effect of the incidence of intestinal obstruction in the total population, male residents, and female residents of China showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The cohort effect coefficients for the total population increased from 0.591 for the 1897–1901 cohort to 1.079 for the 1942–1946 cohort and then decreased to 0.718 for the 2017–2021 cohort. The cohort effect coefficients for male residents increased from 0.640 for the 1897–1901 cohort to 1.076 for the 1947–1951 cohort and then decreased to 0.716 for the 2017–2021 cohort. The cohort effect coefficients for female residents increased from 0.638 for the 1897–1901 cohort to 1.142 for the 1927–1931 cohort and then decreased to 0.706 for the 2017–2021 cohort.

Conclusions

The ASIR of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents showed an overall downward trend from 1992 to 2021, but it is still necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of intestinal obstruction in male and elderly populations.

, authors=Guilian LAN, Yao WU, authorsList=Guilian LAN, Yao WU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Yao WU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
WU Yao, E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2025 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1321170589964939687, articleId=1321170587381248415, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病趋势年龄–时期–队列分析, columnId=1321170564589400299, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=专题报道——疾病负担研究, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

了解1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病趋势，为制定精准的肠梗阻防控措施提供科学依据。

方法

从2021全球疾病负担研究（GBD 2021）数据库中提取1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病数、发病率和年龄标化发病率（ASIR）等相关数据，采用描述性分析和Joinpoint回归模型分析评价中国居民肠梗阻的发病率变化趋势并计算平均年度变化百分比（AAPC），应用年龄–时期–队列（APC）模型拟评估中国居民肠梗阻发病风险中的年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应。

结果

中国总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率分别从1992年的204.411/10万、227.272/10万和179.973/10万上升至2021年的231.393/10万、259.508/10万和201.923/10万，ASIR分别从1992年的220.367/10万、247.453/10万和192.676/10万下降至2021年的198.500/10万、226.548/10万和170.553/10万，ASIR的AAPC值分别为–0.355%、–0.302%和–0.410%（均P<0.01）。APC模型分析结果显示，中国总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率的年龄效应均随年龄增长呈总体上升趋势，年龄效应系数分别从0～4岁的0.126、0.103和0.183上升至≥95岁的0.413、0.725和0.453；中国总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率的时期效应均随时间推移呈总体下降趋势，时期效应系数分别从1992—1996年的1.000、1.008和0.993下降至2017—2021年的0.942、0.958和0.920；中国总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率的队列效应均呈先上升后下降趋势，其中总体居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.591上升至1942—1946年的1.079而后下降至2017—2021年的0.718，男性居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.640上升至1947—1951年的1.076而后下降至2017—2021年的0.716，女性居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.638上升至1927—1931年的1.142而后下降至2017—2021年的0.706。

结论

1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻的ASIR总体呈下降趋势，但仍应加强男性和老年人群肠梗阻的防控工作。

, authors=蓝桂莲, 吴遥*, *, authorsList=蓝桂莲, 吴遥, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=吴遥, authorNote=

蓝桂莲（1990—），主治医师，硕士，研究方向：消化疾病临床流行病学

, correspAuthorsNote=
吴遥，E-mail：
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Incidence of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份总体男性女性
发病数/例发病率/（1/10万）ASIR/（1/10万）发病数/例发病率/（1/10万）ASIR/（1/10万）发病数/例发病率/（1/10万）ASIR/（1/10万）
19922 465 691204.411220.3671 416 420227.272247.4531 049 271179.973192.676
19932 498 499205.258220.6061 435 517228.144247.7961 062 982180.770192.740
19942 529 897206.302220.8281 453 298229.215248.0911 076 598181.774192.844
19952 559 432207.452221.0211 468 933230.303248.3281 090 499182.994192.974
19962 588 844208.803221.2621 483 585231.541248.5621 105 259184.484193.219
19972 619 149210.375221.5421 497 620232.906248.7861 121 529186.308193.567
19982 651 126212.157221.8011 511 754234.415248.9521 139 372188.419193.932
19992 686 595214.216222.0671 528 197236.307249.1341 158 398190.697194.300
20002 723 923216.341222.2561 545 712238.295249.2861 178 211193.013194.568
20012 765 764218.663222.4981 565 881240.516249.4371 199 883195.484194.943
20022 809 759221.016222.8441 586 498242.660249.5701 223 261198.099195.535
20032 854 295223.320223.1281 607 338244.754249.6031 246 957200.668196.094
20042 899 797225.626223.2201 629 665247.007249.5201 270 132203.071196.411
20052 942 642227.608223.0901 651 902249.123249.3711 290 740204.955196.354
20062 977 662228.817222.2841 674 092251.033249.0691 303 570205.466195.127
20073 000 520228.953220.6031 694 093252.435248.4431 306 427204.308192.494
20083 015 315228.446218.5141 711 715253.419247.5741 303 600202.273189.279
20093 029 360227.949216.4371 728 861254.376246.4971 300 499200.288186.272
20103 043 873227.675214.6261 741 934254.924245.0681 301 939199.188184.120
20113 065 567228.116213.0741 756 191255.825243.3981 309 376199.181182.718
20123 089 439228.646211.4741 771 032256.687241.5551 318 407199.386181.386
20133 110 825228.846209.7021 783 923257.055239.4521 326 902199.423179.967
20143 134 421229.138207.9371 797 283257.359237.3371 337 138199.703178.567
20153 163 993229.714206.3791 814 497257.990235.4791 349 496200.210177.307
20163 193 558230.110204.8501 831 179258.300233.6771 362 379200.673176.058
20173 214 351229.898203.2281 842 608257.873231.7781 371 743200.658174.726
20183 232 109229.688201.7291 852 443257.468230.0611 379 666200.624173.463
20193 255 954230.205200.7141 866 714258.023228.9581 389 240201.076172.545
20203 281 551231.179200.2641 883 379259.310228.5701 398 172201.704172.045
20213 292 132231.393198.5001 889 487259.508226.5481 402 645201.923170.553
), ArticleFig(id=1321170908828516923, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170587381248415, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份总体男性女性
发病数/例发病率/（1/10万）ASIR/（1/10万）发病数/例发病率/（1/10万）ASIR/（1/10万）发病数/例发病率/（1/10万）ASIR/（1/10万）
19922 465 691204.411220.3671 416 420227.272247.4531 049 271179.973192.676
19932 498 499205.258220.6061 435 517228.144247.7961 062 982180.770192.740
19942 529 897206.302220.8281 453 298229.215248.0911 076 598181.774192.844
19952 559 432207.452221.0211 468 933230.303248.3281 090 499182.994192.974
19962 588 844208.803221.2621 483 585231.541248.5621 105 259184.484193.219
19972 619 149210.375221.5421 497 620232.906248.7861 121 529186.308193.567
19982 651 126212.157221.8011 511 754234.415248.9521 139 372188.419193.932
19992 686 595214.216222.0671 528 197236.307249.1341 158 398190.697194.300
20002 723 923216.341222.2561 545 712238.295249.2861 178 211193.013194.568
20012 765 764218.663222.4981 565 881240.516249.4371 199 883195.484194.943
20022 809 759221.016222.8441 586 498242.660249.5701 223 261198.099195.535
20032 854 295223.320223.1281 607 338244.754249.6031 246 957200.668196.094
20042 899 797225.626223.2201 629 665247.007249.5201 270 132203.071196.411
20052 942 642227.608223.0901 651 902249.123249.3711 290 740204.955196.354
20062 977 662228.817222.2841 674 092251.033249.0691 303 570205.466195.127
20073 000 520228.953220.6031 694 093252.435248.4431 306 427204.308192.494
20083 015 315228.446218.5141 711 715253.419247.5741 303 600202.273189.279
20093 029 360227.949216.4371 728 861254.376246.4971 300 499200.288186.272
20103 043 873227.675214.6261 741 934254.924245.0681 301 939199.188184.120
20113 065 567228.116213.0741 756 191255.825243.3981 309 376199.181182.718
20123 089 439228.646211.4741 771 032256.687241.5551 318 407199.386181.386
20133 110 825228.846209.7021 783 923257.055239.4521 326 902199.423179.967
20143 134 421229.138207.9371 797 283257.359237.3371 337 138199.703178.567
20153 163 993229.714206.3791 814 497257.990235.4791 349 496200.210177.307
20163 193 558230.110204.8501 831 179258.300233.6771 362 379200.673176.058
20173 214 351229.898203.2281 842 608257.873231.7781 371 743200.658174.726
20183 232 109229.688201.7291 852 443257.468230.0611 379 666200.624173.463
20193 255 954230.205200.7141 866 714258.023228.9581 389 240201.076172.545
20203 281 551231.179200.2641 883 379259.310228.5701 398 172201.704172.045
20213 292 132231.393198.5001 889 487259.508226.5481 402 645201.923170.553
), ArticleFig(id=1321170908908208700, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170587381248415, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

APC model analysis of the incidence of intestinal obstruction among Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目分类总体男性女性
效应系数95%CI效应系数95%CI效应系数95%CI
年龄效应/岁 0～40.1260.025～0.2280.103–0.207～0.4130.1830.089～0.277
5～9–0.932–1.128～–0.735–0.857–1.413～–0.300–1.063–1.272～–0.854
10～14–0.602–0.741～–0.463–0.629–1.058～–0.199–0.585–0.713～–0.457
15～19–0.311–0.416～–0.207–0.297–0.610～0.016–0.347–0.447～–0.247
20～24–0.367–0.472～–0.261–0.279–0.576～0.019–0.512–0.623～–0.401
25～29–0.422–0.530～–0.315–0.403–0.719～–0.088–0.480–0.585～–0.376
30～34–0.271–0.364～–0.179–0.443–0.751～–0.135–0.101–0.179～–0.023
35～39–0.214–0.299～–0.129–0.464–0.758～–0.1700.025–0.044～0.095
40～44–0.163–0.240～–0.085–0.343–0.597～–0.0880.000–0.067～0.067
45～49–0.146–0.219～–0.074–0.261–0.487～–0.035–0.067–0.132～–0.002
50～54–0.082–0.146～–0.017–0.132–0.326～0.062–0.096–0.158～–0.035
55～590.043–0.012～0.0980.023–0.140～0.186–0.027–0.081～0.027
60～640.1550.108～0.2020.1900.055～0.326–0.017–0.066～0.033
65～690.2010.160～0.2430.1910.068～0.3140.1300.089～0.172
70～740.3830.349～0.4180.3220.218～0.4250.3800.346～0.413
75～790.3590.324～0.3940.3010.198～0.4040.3560.323～0.389
80～840.6030.570～0.6350.5300.433～0.6280.6390.609～0.669
85～890.7310.696～0.7660.7910.688～0.8940.7090.676～0.742
90～940.4950.452～0.5380.9300.812～1.0490.4200.379～0.461
≥950.4130.361～0.4650.7250.580～0.8710.4530.405～0.500
时期效应/年份1992—19961.0000.979～1.0211.0080.978～1.0380.9930.970～1.017
1997—20010.9940.975～1.0131.0000.975～1.0250.9880.967～1.010
2002—20061.0001.000～1.0001.0001.000～1.0001.0001.000～1.000
2007—20110.9810.963～1.0000.9910.966～1.0150.9670.947～0.988
2012—20160.9590.939～0.9790.9730.945～1.0020.9400.918～0.961
2017—20210.9420.921～0.9650.9580.924～0.9920.9200.898～0.943
出生队列效应/年份1897—19010.5910.138～2.5280.6400.038～10.7210.6380.181～2.245
1902—19060.6940.436～1.1050.6840.320～1.4660.7500.488～1.154
1907—19110.7730.646～0.9260.7130.542～0.9370.8660.727～1.031
1912—19160.8870.803～0.9800.8180.709～0.9440.9870.893～1.092
1917—19210.9710.906～1.0400.8880.808～0.9771.0891.012～1.171
1922—19261.0040.952～1.0580.9150.853～0.9811.1291.065～1.197
1927—19311.0370.992～1.0840.9580.905～1.0131.1421.085～1.201
1932—19361.0541.014～1.0950.9890.944～1.0371.1361.086～1.189
1937—19411.0711.035～1.1091.0380.996～1.0831.1051.060～1.152
1942—19461.0791.045～1.1141.0721.031～1.1141.0711.030～1.114
1947—19511.0731.043～1.1051.0761.038～1.1151.0591.023～1.097
1952—19561.0431.016～1.0711.0391.005～1.0731.0481.015～1.081
1957—19611.0001.000～1.0001.0001.000～1.0001.0001.000～1.000
1962—19660.9540.928～0.9800.9490.917～0.9820.9620.932～0.992
1967—19710.9110.886～0.9360.8950.864～0.9270.9300.901～0.959
1972—19760.8830.857～0.9100.8520.82～0.8850.9180.888～0.949
1977—19810.8420.814～0.8700.8060.772～0.8420.8850.853～0.919
1982—19860.8150.786～0.8450.7850.749～0.8230.8530.819～0.888
1987—19910.7910.762～0.8220.7650.729～0.8040.8250.790～0.862
1992—19960.7550.724～0.7880.7360.698～0.7760.7730.735～0.812
1997—20010.7400.706～0.7770.7190.677～0.7630.7560.714～0.800
2002—20060.7450.706～0.7860.7230.676～0.7730.7590.713～0.809
2007—20110.8040.757～0.8540.7830.727～0.8430.8160.760～0.876
2012—20160.7840.732～0.8390.7780.716～0.8450.7720.712～0.837
2017—20210.7180.665～0.7760.7160.651～0.7880.7060.644～0.773
), ArticleFig(id=1321170908992094781, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170587381248415, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病率的APC模型分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目分类总体男性女性
效应系数95%CI效应系数95%CI效应系数95%CI
年龄效应/岁 0～40.1260.025～0.2280.103–0.207～0.4130.1830.089～0.277
5～9–0.932–1.128～–0.735–0.857–1.413～–0.300–1.063–1.272～–0.854
10～14–0.602–0.741～–0.463–0.629–1.058～–0.199–0.585–0.713～–0.457
15～19–0.311–0.416～–0.207–0.297–0.610～0.016–0.347–0.447～–0.247
20～24–0.367–0.472～–0.261–0.279–0.576～0.019–0.512–0.623～–0.401
25～29–0.422–0.530～–0.315–0.403–0.719～–0.088–0.480–0.585～–0.376
30～34–0.271–0.364～–0.179–0.443–0.751～–0.135–0.101–0.179～–0.023
35～39–0.214–0.299～–0.129–0.464–0.758～–0.1700.025–0.044～0.095
40～44–0.163–0.240～–0.085–0.343–0.597～–0.0880.000–0.067～0.067
45～49–0.146–0.219～–0.074–0.261–0.487～–0.035–0.067–0.132～–0.002
50～54–0.082–0.146～–0.017–0.132–0.326～0.062–0.096–0.158～–0.035
55～590.043–0.012～0.0980.023–0.140～0.186–0.027–0.081～0.027
60～640.1550.108～0.2020.1900.055～0.326–0.017–0.066～0.033
65～690.2010.160～0.2430.1910.068～0.3140.1300.089～0.172
70～740.3830.349～0.4180.3220.218～0.4250.3800.346～0.413
75～790.3590.324～0.3940.3010.198～0.4040.3560.323～0.389
80～840.6030.570～0.6350.5300.433～0.6280.6390.609～0.669
85～890.7310.696～0.7660.7910.688～0.8940.7090.676～0.742
90～940.4950.452～0.5380.9300.812～1.0490.4200.379～0.461
≥950.4130.361～0.4650.7250.580～0.8710.4530.405～0.500
时期效应/年份1992—19961.0000.979～1.0211.0080.978～1.0380.9930.970～1.017
1997—20010.9940.975～1.0131.0000.975～1.0250.9880.967～1.010
2002—20061.0001.000～1.0001.0001.000～1.0001.0001.000～1.000
2007—20110.9810.963～1.0000.9910.966～1.0150.9670.947～0.988
2012—20160.9590.939～0.9790.9730.945～1.0020.9400.918～0.961
2017—20210.9420.921～0.9650.9580.924～0.9920.9200.898～0.943
出生队列效应/年份1897—19010.5910.138～2.5280.6400.038～10.7210.6380.181～2.245
1902—19060.6940.436～1.1050.6840.320～1.4660.7500.488～1.154
1907—19110.7730.646～0.9260.7130.542～0.9370.8660.727～1.031
1912—19160.8870.803～0.9800.8180.709～0.9440.9870.893～1.092
1917—19210.9710.906～1.0400.8880.808～0.9771.0891.012～1.171
1922—19261.0040.952～1.0580.9150.853～0.9811.1291.065～1.197
1927—19311.0370.992～1.0840.9580.905～1.0131.1421.085～1.201
1932—19361.0541.014～1.0950.9890.944～1.0371.1361.086～1.189
1937—19411.0711.035～1.1091.0380.996～1.0831.1051.060～1.152
1942—19461.0791.045～1.1141.0721.031～1.1141.0711.030～1.114
1947—19511.0731.043～1.1051.0761.038～1.1151.0591.023～1.097
1952—19561.0431.016～1.0711.0391.005～1.0731.0481.015～1.081
1957—19611.0001.000～1.0001.0001.000～1.0001.0001.000～1.000
1962—19660.9540.928～0.9800.9490.917～0.9820.9620.932～0.992
1967—19710.9110.886～0.9360.8950.864～0.9270.9300.901～0.959
1972—19760.8830.857～0.9100.8520.82～0.8850.9180.888～0.949
1977—19810.8420.814～0.8700.8060.772～0.8420.8850.853～0.919
1982—19860.8150.786～0.8450.7850.749～0.8230.8530.819～0.888
1987—19910.7910.762～0.8220.7650.729～0.8040.8250.790～0.862
1992—19960.7550.724～0.7880.7360.698～0.7760.7730.735～0.812
1997—20010.7400.706～0.7770.7190.677～0.7630.7560.714～0.800
2002—20060.7450.706～0.7860.7230.676～0.7730.7590.713～0.809
2007—20110.8040.757～0.8540.7830.727～0.8430.8160.760～0.876
2012—20160.7840.732～0.8390.7780.716～0.8450.7720.712～0.837
2017—20210.7180.665～0.7760.7160.651～0.7880.7060.644～0.773
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1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病趋势年龄–时期–队列分析
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蓝桂莲 , 吴遥 *, *
中国公共卫生 | 专题报道——疾病负担研究 2025,41(3): 263-269
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中国公共卫生 |专题报道——疾病负担研究 2025 , 41 (3) : 263 -269
1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病趋势年龄–时期–队列分析
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蓝桂莲（1990—），主治医师，硕士，研究方向：消化疾病临床流行病学

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蓝桂莲, 吴遥*, *
作者信息
  • 南昌大学第一附属医院消化内科 消化疾病江西省重点实验室 江西省消化系统疾病临床研究中心消化病医院，南昌 330006
通讯作者:
吴遥，E-mail：
作者简介:

蓝桂莲（1990—），主治医师，硕士，研究方向：消化疾病临床流行病学

Age-period-cohort analysis of intestinal obstruction incidence trends among Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021
Guilian LAN, Yao WU
Affiliations
  • Department of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, China
    • Corresponding Author:
    WU Yao, E-mail:
出版时间: 2025-03-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1145749
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摘要
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目的

了解1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病趋势，为制定精准的肠梗阻防控措施提供科学依据。

方法

从2021全球疾病负担研究（GBD 2021）数据库中提取1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病数、发病率和年龄标化发病率（ASIR）等相关数据，采用描述性分析和Joinpoint回归模型分析评价中国居民肠梗阻的发病率变化趋势并计算平均年度变化百分比（AAPC），应用年龄–时期–队列（APC）模型拟评估中国居民肠梗阻发病风险中的年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应。

结果

中国总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率分别从1992年的204.411/10万、227.272/10万和179.973/10万上升至2021年的231.393/10万、259.508/10万和201.923/10万，ASIR分别从1992年的220.367/10万、247.453/10万和192.676/10万下降至2021年的198.500/10万、226.548/10万和170.553/10万，ASIR的AAPC值分别为–0.355%、–0.302%和–0.410%（均P<0.01）。APC模型分析结果显示，中国总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率的年龄效应均随年龄增长呈总体上升趋势，年龄效应系数分别从0～4岁的0.126、0.103和0.183上升至≥95岁的0.413、0.725和0.453；中国总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率的时期效应均随时间推移呈总体下降趋势，时期效应系数分别从1992—1996年的1.000、1.008和0.993下降至2017—2021年的0.942、0.958和0.920；中国总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率的队列效应均呈先上升后下降趋势，其中总体居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.591上升至1942—1946年的1.079而后下降至2017—2021年的0.718，男性居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.640上升至1947—1951年的1.076而后下降至2017—2021年的0.716，女性居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.638上升至1927—1931年的1.142而后下降至2017—2021年的0.706。

结论

1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻的ASIR总体呈下降趋势，但仍应加强男性和老年人群肠梗阻的防控工作。

肠梗阻  /  发病趋势  /  年龄–时期–队列（APC）模型  /  中国居民
Objective

To understand the incidence trends of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021 and to provide a scientific basis for formulating precise prevention and control measures for intestinal obstruction.

Methods

Data on the number of cases, incidence rate, and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Descriptive analysis and Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate the trends in the incidence of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to assess the age, period, and cohort effects on the risk of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents.

Results

The incidence rates of intestinal obstruction in the total population, male residents, and female residents of China increased from 204.411/100 000, 227.272/100 000, and 179.973/100 000 in 1992 to 231.393/100 000, 259.508/100 000, and 201.923/100 000 in 2021, respectively. The ASIR decreased from 220.367/100 000, 247.453/100 000, and 192.676/100 000 in 1992 to 198.500/100 000, 226.548/100 000, and 170.553/100 000 in 2021, respectively. The AAPC values of ASIR were –0.355%, –0.302%, and –0.410% (all P<0.01), respectively. The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of the incidence of intestinal obstruction in the total population, male residents, and female residents of China showed an overall upward trend with increasing age. The age effect coefficients increased from 0.126, 0.103, and 0.183 for ages 0–4 years to 0.413, 0.725, and 0.453 for ages ≥95 years, respectively. The period effect of the incidence of intestinal obstruction in the total population, male residents, and female residents of China showed an overall downward trend over time. The period effect coefficients decreased from 1.000, 1.008, and 0.993 for the period 1992–1996 to 0.942, 0.958, and 0.920 for the period 2017–2021, respectively. The cohort effect of the incidence of intestinal obstruction in the total population, male residents, and female residents of China showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The cohort effect coefficients for the total population increased from 0.591 for the 1897–1901 cohort to 1.079 for the 1942–1946 cohort and then decreased to 0.718 for the 2017–2021 cohort. The cohort effect coefficients for male residents increased from 0.640 for the 1897–1901 cohort to 1.076 for the 1947–1951 cohort and then decreased to 0.716 for the 2017–2021 cohort. The cohort effect coefficients for female residents increased from 0.638 for the 1897–1901 cohort to 1.142 for the 1927–1931 cohort and then decreased to 0.706 for the 2017–2021 cohort.

Conclusions

The ASIR of intestinal obstruction in Chinese residents showed an overall downward trend from 1992 to 2021, but it is still necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of intestinal obstruction in male and elderly populations.

intestinal obstruction  /  incidence trends  /  age-period-cohort (APC) model  /  Chinese residents
蓝桂莲, 吴遥. 1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病趋势年龄–时期–队列分析. 中国公共卫生, 2025 , 41 (3) : 263 -269 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1145749
Guilian LAN, Yao WU. Age-period-cohort analysis of intestinal obstruction incidence trends among Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2025 , 41 (3) : 263 -269 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1145749
正文
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肠梗阻是指由于各种原因导致肠道内容物无法正常通过肠道，从而引起的肠道部分或全部阻塞，是外科常见的急腹症之一[1]，其病因复杂，通常分为机械性原因（如肿瘤、粘连、疝气等）、动力性原因（如肠麻痹）和血运障碍原因（如血栓堵塞）。由于肠梗阻起病急、诊断复杂，临床早期诊断率较低，容易延误治疗，导致严重并发症如肠坏死、肠穿孔，甚至毒血症和休克，威胁患者生命[2]。据统计，全球范围内约有3%～30%的死亡率与肠梗阻相关[3]，这不仅对患者及其家庭造成沉重的心理和经济负担，也给医疗卫生系统带来巨大压力。尽管肠梗阻在临床上具有较高的发病率和死亡率，但针对中国肠梗阻流行病学的专项研究较少。为了解1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病趋势，为制定精准的肠梗阻防控措施提供科学依据。本研究从2021全球疾病负担研究（Global Burden of Disease Study 2021，GBD 2021）数据库中提取1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病数、发病率和年龄标化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate, ASIR）等相关数据，采用描述性分析和Joinpoint回归模型分析评价中国居民肠梗阻的发病率变化趋势并计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC），应用年龄–时期–队列（age-period-cohort，APC）模型拟合并估计中国居民肠梗阻发病风险中的年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应。结果报告如下。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　资料来源
资料来源于全球健康数据交换数据库 （the Global Health Data Exchange，GHDx），网址为：https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/。该数据库来自美国华盛顿大学卫生计量与评估研究所的全球疾病负担研究（Global Burden of Disease Study，GBD）项目，数据库记录了全球204个国家（地区）的369种疾病及伤害的发病率、死亡率、疾病负担和各种风险因素等数据，免费提供给各个国家和地区的人群健康研究者[4]。本研究从GBD 2021数据库中提取1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病数、发病率和ASIR等相关数据进行分析，其中ASIR通过GBD 2021年全球标准人口年龄构成[5]进行标化；肠梗阻按《国际疾病分类第十版（International Classification of Diseases Version 10，ICD-10）》[6] 进行分类和编码，编码为K56。
1.2　统计分析
采用Excel 2016建立数据库进行一般描述性分析；应用Joinpoint version 5.2.0软件进行Joinpoint回归分析，采用对数线性回归模型计算AAPC值并分析中国居民肠梗阻发病变化趋势；应用美国国际癌症研究所发明的年龄–时期–队列网页版分析工具（https://analysistools.cancer.gov/apc/）评估中国居民肠梗阻发病风险中的年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应，其中年龄以5年为间隔分为20组（0～4、5～9，$\cdots $，≥95岁），时期以5年为间隔分为6段（1992—1996、1997—2001，$\cdots $，2017—2021年），出生队列由时期减去年龄得到，划分为25个出生队列（1897—1901、1902—1906，$\cdots $，2017—2021年）。检验水准为双侧检验α=0.05。
2　结　果
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2.1　1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病趋势（表1）
中国总体居民肠梗阻发病率从1992年的204.411/10万上升至2021年的231.393/10万，ASIR从1992年的220.367/10万下降至2021年的198.500/10万，平均每年降低0.355%（AAPC= –0.355%，95%CI= –0.369%～–0.341%）；中国男性居民肠梗阻发病率从1992年的227.272/10万上升至2021年的259.508/10万，ASIR从1992年的247.453/10万下降至2021年的226.548/10万，平均每年降低0.302%（AAPC= –0.302%，95%CI= –0.323%～–0.281%）；中国女性居民肠梗阻发病率从1992年的179.973/10万上升至2021年的201.923/10万，ASIR从1992年的192.676/10万下降至2021年的170.553/10万，平均每年降低0.410%（AAPC= –0.410%，95%CI= –0.437%～–0.383%）。
2.2　1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病率APC模型分析（表2）
APC模型分析结果显示，中国居民1992—2021年肠梗阻发病率的年龄效应随年龄增长呈总体上升趋势，总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率的年龄效应系数分别从0～4岁的0.126、0.103和0.183上升至≥95岁的0.413、0.725和0.453；1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病率的时期效应均随时间推移呈总体下降趋势，总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率的时期效应系数分别从1992—1996年的1.000、1.008和0.993下降至2017—2021年的0.942、0.958和0.920；1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻发病率的队列效应均呈先上升后下降趋势，其中总体居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.591上升至1942—1946年的1.079而后下降至2017—2021年的0.718，男性居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.640上升至1947—1951年的1.076而后下降至2017—2021年的0.716，女性居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.638上升至1927—1931年的1.142而后下降至2017—2021年的0.706。
3　讨　论
收起
本研究结果显示，中国总体居民肠梗阻发病率从1992年的204.411/10万上升至2021年的231.393/10万，ASIR从1992年的220.367/10万下降至2021年的198.500/10万，平均每年降低0.355%（AAPC= –0.355%，95%CI= –0.369%～–0.341%），与全球居民肠梗阻的发病趋势相反[7]，这可能与预防措施的实施、居民对疾病认识水平的提升和生活质量的提高等有关。近年来，中国在公共卫生领域的持续努力明显提高了肠梗阻的预防水平，如通过加强健康管理和肠道疾病（如便秘和腹部手术后粘连等）的早期干预治疗，有效减少了肠梗阻的发病风险；我国陆续发布各种规范肠道疾病的诊疗规范，如《机器人结直肠癌手术中国专家共识（2020版）》[8]、《预防腹部外科手术后腹腔粘连的中国专家共识》[9]、《结肠癌多学科综合治疗协作组诊疗模式专家共识》[10]和《2020年中国急性肠系膜缺血诊断与治疗专家共识》[11]等一系列诊治共识的发布，有效规范了我国医疗机构诊治肠道疾病的行为，极大地改善了患者肠道疾病的治疗结局并降低其发展为肠梗阻的风险。有研究证实，随着医疗技术的发展，如腹部手术技术的进步、中西医结合的治疗方法和综合护理水平的提升，肠梗阻的发生率有所下降[12–14]；与此同时，随着居民对疾病认知水平的提升以及生活水平的提高，越来越多人注重健康生活方式，饮食结构更加合理，膳食纤维摄入量有所增加，这有利于维持肠道的正常运作并减少肠梗阻的发生风险。本研究中，男性居民1992—2021年各年份肠梗阻ASIR均高于女性居民，其中，男性居民2021年肠梗阻ASIR为226.548/10万，高于女性居民肠梗阻ASIR的170.553/10万，且1992—2021年男性居民的肠梗阻ASIR下降幅度低于女性居民（AAPC男性= –0.302% vs. AAPC女性= –0.410%），提示男性居民的肠梗阻疾病负担更重，这与严正蓉等[15]研究结果一致。有研究表明，男性肠梗阻高发可能与其排便习惯不规律有关，这可能是因为男性在社会上往往承受更大的职场压力，导致在繁忙的工作中容易忽视排便信号，长期抑制排便反射，引起肠道蠕动功能减弱，粪便滞留在肠道内，水分减少，从而增加了患肠梗阻的风险。此外，男性不规律和不健康饮食，如高油高脂低纤维的饮食习惯亦会导致肠道负担过重，使得粪便质地变得干硬，排便困难，进一步增加患肠梗阻的风险[1,16]。还有研究表明，肠梗阻最主要的两大原因粘连和肿瘤在男性中更为常见[17–19]。粘连大多数继发于腹部手术，有研究表明男性腹部损伤、出血、阑尾炎和腹部肿瘤的发生率较女性更高[20]，也有研究证实男性是结直肠癌手术后长期发生术后肠梗阻的重要危险因素[21]。此外，前列腺增生也会导致嵌顿疝，引发肠梗阻[22]。随着医学技术的进步，针对女性特定疾病的腹部手术技术得到明显提升，如异位妊娠、子宫肌瘤和盆腔炎等疾病的微创治疗,这些技术的提升使得女性相应粘连的发生率下降，可能是女性发生肠梗阻减少的主要原因[23]，因此更应加强男性肠梗阻的防控工作。
APC模型分析结果显示，除男性居民肠梗阻发病率的时期效应差异无统计学意义外，其他效应均影响中国居民肠梗阻的发生。年龄效应结果显示，随着年龄的增长，总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率的年龄效应均呈总体上升趋势，其中老年人发病率的年龄效应最高，这与全球居民肠梗阻发病趋势一致[7]。有研究表明，肠梗阻在老年人中更为常见，主要是因为老年人肠道功能低下，肠道蠕动减慢，消化、吸收和分泌等功能容易出现紊乱，因此这些因素可能导致粪便滞留在肠道引起嵌顿。与此同时，老年人大肠癌发病率较高，容易诱发大肠梗阻[24]；而长期的慢性便秘、慢性阻塞性肺病等伴随而来的嵌顿疝，可导致老年小肠梗阻[25–27]。与年轻群体比较，老年人肠梗阻早期症状并不明显，一般发现时已经处于疾病中后期，加之老年人群普遍伴随基础疾病和较低的免疫力，这些因素亦增加了老年人肠梗阻诊治的难度[28]。此外，由于老年人群自身免疫力低下，腹部手术后发生肠梗阻等并发症的风险也高于年轻人[29]。本研究结果显示，≥95岁男性居民和≥90岁女性居民的肠梗阻发病率有所下降，可能是因为高龄人群大多行动不便，就医频率相对较低，从而导致相关发病率数据较少[30]。虽然高龄人群肠梗阻发病率有所下降，但老年人群发病率的效应值普遍偏高，因此应重点关注老年人肠梗阻的预防和控制。时期效应结果显示，总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻的发病在整个时期均呈下降趋势，且女性居民的下降趋势更为明显。这可能是随着中国医疗技术的发展，如越来越多治疗结直肠癌的方法（导管减压及金属支架植入等）能够有效降低术后肠梗阻的发生[31–32]。且随着生活水平的提高，越来越多的人注重健康生活方式，亦减少了发展成肠梗阻的风险。出生队列效应结果显示，总体居民、男性居民和女性居民肠梗阻发病率均呈先上升后下降趋势，其中总体居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.591上升至1942—1946年的1.079而后下降至2017—2021年的0.718，男性居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.640上升至1947—1951年的1.076而后下降至2017—2021年的0.716，女性居民队列效应系数从1897—1901年的0.638上升至1927—1931年的1.142而后下降至2017—2021年的0.706，提示出生越晚，对肠梗阻发病率的影响越小。这可能是随着时代的发展，越晚出生的人群受到更好的教育、接收到更多的医疗知识普及，且生活质量得到更大的改善，能够更加重视疾病防控和健康的生活方式，在患有肠道疾病时也能得到更有效的医疗救治，从而降低了发生肠梗阻的风险。
综上所述，1992—2021年中国居民肠梗阻ASIR总体呈下降趋势，但因中国人口基数高，肠梗阻发病率依然较高，需加强肠梗阻的防控，特别男性和老年人群体，更应倡导健康饮食习惯、保持适量运动、及时就医、避免腹部外伤和增强免疫力等，从而降低肠梗阻的发生风险。但由于本研究数据来源于GBD，所以无法获取肠梗阻的具体类型和中国各地区肠梗阻的发病情况，不能进一步了解各类型和我国不同地区肠梗阻的流行趋势；且本研究属生态学研究，可能存在生态学谬误。今后可考虑收集中国各地区的分类型肠梗阻数据开展区域分布和高危人群研究，并结合队列研究和实地调查提升分析的全面性和精确性。

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doi: 10.11847/zgggws1145749
  • 接收时间：2024-08-20
  • 首发时间：2026-10-25
  • 出版时间：2025-03-10
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  • 收稿日期：2024-08-20
  • 修回日期：2024-11-06
  • 录用日期：2024-12-04
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    南昌大学第一附属医院消化内科 消化疾病江西省重点实验室 江西省消化系统疾病临床研究中心消化病医院，南昌 330006

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
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红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
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