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Article(id=1321170524386997248, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1321170430187130949, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1145373, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1720108800000, receivedDateStr=2024-07-05, revisedDate=1727193600000, revisedDateStr=2024-09-25, acceptedDate=1737648000000, acceptedDateStr=2025-01-24, onlineDate=1792921199175, onlineDateStr=2026-10-25, pubDate=1739116800000, pubDateStr=2025-02-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792921199175, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-25, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792921199175, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792921199175, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1321170430187130949, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2025', volume='41', issue='2', pageStart='129', pageEnd='256', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1739116800000', pubDateStr='2025-02-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792921176716, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792921176716, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=239, endPage=245, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1321170524739317760, articleId=1321170524386997248, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Willingness-to-pay-based estimates of the value of statistical life in China: a systematic review, columnId=1320427713148597230, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Review, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To conduct a systematic review of willingness-to-pay (WTP)-based estimates of the value of statistical life (VSL) reported by studies in China, and to compare VSLs associated with different hazards and estimation methods in order to provide more accurate estimates of VSL for future policy decisions.

Methods

Empirical studies in China on WTP-based VSL estimates published through April 1, 2024 were collected by searching the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP Chinese Database, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and MEDLINEand supplemented by a literature review method.The VSL estimates reported in the studies were systematically evaluated in terms of research scope and methods.

Results

Of the 28 studies reviewed, 11 were on VSLs related to air pollution, 9 to traffic safety, 5 to occupational safety, 2 to health conditions, and 1 to a combined circumstance, with 26 studies using stated preference surveys and 2 using revealed preference surveys. The median VSL estimate (in million of Chinese yuan) for all reviewed studies was 1.962 2, with VSL estimates of 1.689 0 for air pollution, 0.985 7 for traffic safety, 4.996 0 for occupational safety, and 4.033 0 for health conditions and combined circumstances; the median VSL estimates for studies using stated and revealed preference surveys were 1.825 6 and 1.553 0, respectively. The main factors influencing WTP were income, education, age, household size, and perceived health status for studies related to air pollution; income, education, age, and perceived risk for studies related to traffic safety; income, education, age, perceived risk, gender, and marital status for studies related to occupational safety; and income, education, age, and risk variation for studies related to health conditions.

Conclusions

VSL estimates from studies in China show some variation due to differences in research scope and methodology. The common factors influencing VSL estimates across studies are primarily income, education, age, and perceived risk.

, authors=Yinuo NA, Yi LI, Dan WANG, Bingjie LIU, Xin ZHANG, authorsList=Yinuo NA, Yi LI, Dan WANG, Bingjie LIU, Xin ZHANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Xin ZHANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
ZHANG Xin, E-mail:
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目的

基于支付意愿法系统评价中国统计生命价值（VSL），比较不同领域和不同估计方法VSL估计值的差异，为今后的政策制定提供更准确的生命价值评估依据。

方法

检索中国知网数据库、维普中文数据库、PubMed数据库、Embase数据库、Web of Science数据库和MEDLINE数据库，并辅以文献追溯法收集各数据库建库至2024年4月1日公开发表的关于中国基于支付意愿法进行VSL实证研究的相关文献，从研究领域和研究方法等角度对纳入文献的VSL估计值进行系统评价。

结果

本研究共纳入28篇文献进行系统综述，其中空气污染领域11篇、交通安全领域9篇、职业安全领域5篇、健康领域2篇、混合领域1篇，采用陈述偏好方法研究26篇、显示偏好方法研究2篇；我国总体研究的VSL中位数估计值为196.22万元，其中空气污染领域、交通安全领域、职业安全领域和健康领域的VSL中位数估计值分别为168.90万元、98.57万元、499.60万元和403.30万元，陈述偏好方法研究和显示偏好方法研究的VSL中位数估计值分别为182.56万元和155.30万元；空气污染领域支付意愿的主要影响因素为收入水平、教育程度、年龄、家庭规模和自我认知的身体健康状况，交通安全领域支付意愿的主要影响因素为收入水平、教育程度、年龄和认知风险程度，职业安全领域支付意愿的主要影响因素为收入水平、教育程度、年龄、认知风险程度、性别和婚姻状况，健康领域支付意愿的主要影响因素为收入水平、教育程度、年龄和风险变动。

结论

VSL估计值因研究领域和研究方法的不同存在一定差异，各领域VSL估计的共同影响因素主要为收入水平、教育程度、年龄和认知风险。

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那艺诺（2000—），硕士在读，研究方向：支付意愿分析、统计生命价值估算方法

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张歆，E-mail：
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Valuing reductions in fatal illness risks: implications of recent research[J]. Health economics, 2016, 25(8): 1039-1352., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321170536743415896, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=43, rfOrder=42, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Dekker T, Brouwer R, Hofkes M, et al. The effect of risk context on the value of a statistical life: a Bayesian meta-model[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2011, 49(4): 597-624., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321170536814719065, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=44, rfOrder=43, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Andersson H. Consistency in preferences for road safety: an analysis of precautionary and stated behavior[J]. Research in Transportation Economics, 2013, 43(1): 41-49., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321170536915382362, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=45, rfOrder=44, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Viscusi W K. The value of risks to life and health[J]. Journal of Economic Literature, 1993, 31(4): 1912-1946., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321170536995074139, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=46, rfOrder=45, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Masterman C J, Viscusi W K. The income elasticity of global values of a statistical life: stated preference evidence[J]. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2018, 9(3): 407-434., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321170537070571612, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=47, rfOrder=46, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=张欢, 刘金辉, 陈玉, 等. 农村居民癌症筛查服务需求及支付意愿分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2022, 38(6): 795-799., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321170537154457693, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=48, rfOrder=47, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=朱澜澜, 胡平成, 郭伟, 等. 基于Tobit模型分析长沙市高中女生HPV九价疫苗支付意愿及其影响因素[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2021, 37(3): 419-422., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null)], funds=null, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1321170527352369156, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321170527369146373, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, companyId=1321170527352369156, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Department of Health Economics, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321170527377534982, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, companyId=1321170527352369156, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=哈尔滨医科大学卫生经济学教研室，哈尔滨 150081)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1321170529248194600, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Flowchart of the study selection process, figureFileSmall=QDpTs0T9WnQl+OBkVP0+gw==, figureFileBig=eyd4lWmjgDOeOoDEQ1QXeA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1321170529311109161, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, language=CN, label=图1, caption=文献筛选流程图, figureFileSmall=QDpTs0T9WnQl+OBkVP0+gw==, figureFileBig=eyd4lWmjgDOeOoDEQ1QXeA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1321170529478881322, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=

First author, region/year/scope/population/sample size/method of the study, risk variation, and originally reported value of a statistical life for the 28 included studies

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
第一作者研究地区调查年份研究领域研究人群有效样本量研究方法风险变动原始VSL报告值
Qin X Z[10]中国2005年劳动力市场劳动者1 285 012CWD平均死亡率为6.62 / 10万181万元人民币
Wang H[13]重庆市1998年空气污染15～80岁居民482CV死亡风险降低0.5‱28.6万元人民币
Guo X Q[14]四川省成都市1995年空气污染工人997CV死亡风险降低3‱、5‱和10‱1.2万⁓12万美元
Hammitt J K[15]北京市、安徽省
安庆市		1999年空气污染18～65成年人3700CV死亡风险降低50‱⁓60‱0.4万⁓1.7万美元
梅强[16]江苏省2004年劳动力市场工人933CV工作危险等级增加1级507.65万⁓557.78 万元人民币
罗俊鹏[17]北京市道路交通安全≥18岁成年人500CV死亡风险降低2‱51.3万元人民币
GUO X Q[18]中国1995年和
2000—
2002年		劳动力市场工人21 698CWD4.5万美元
曾贤刚[19]上海市、广西壮族自治区南宁市、江西省九江市空气污染40～80岁居民380/ 344/355
（上海/南宁/
九江）		CV10年间死亡风险降低10‰和5‰约100万元人民币
Liu W G[20]辽宁省大连市道路交通安全私家车出行者1 050CV绝对风险降低分别为6/10万、12/10万和18/10万55万⁓156万元
人民币
党健[21]河南省义马市2010年劳动力市场工人903CV工作危险性减少
一半		362.350 016万 ⁓426.932 518万元人民币
刘文歌[22]辽宁省大连市2011年道路交通安全私家车出行者1 056CV每年致命风险降低2‱59.8万元人民币
Liu W G[23]辽宁省大连市2011年道路交通安全私家车出行者213DCE平均死亡风险降低1‱36万元人民币
Wang H[24]江苏丹阳市、贵州省六盘水市、
天津市		2000年癌症预防居民838CV1种药能确保1年不患癌症48.1⁓81.4万元
人民币
程启智[25]北方地区2010年劳动力市场工人863HC/CV工作危险性减少
一半		400⁓600 万元
人民币
刘文歌[26]辽宁省大连市2011年道路交通安全私家车出行者926CV每年致命风险降低2‱59.8万元人民币
高婷[27]北京市2014年空气污染居民722CV死亡率降低1.5‱66.7万⁓133.3万元人民币
Yang Z[28]江苏省南京市2014—
2015年		道路交通安全居民2 857DCE每年死亡人数减少到原来一半718.440 6万元
人民币
Hoffmann S[29]上海市、江西省九江市、广西壮族自治区南宁市2006年空气污染居民980CV每年死亡率风险降低5‱147万元人民币
Huang D S[30]北京市2010年空气污染居民475DCE10年内死亡风险降低2‰/1.5‰/1‰524万元人民币
Hammitt J K[31]四川省成都市2016年健康18～70岁居民2 048CV当年死亡风险降低3‱和5‱55万美元
Hao Y[32]74个城市2016年空气污染居民308CV未来10年死亡风险降低5%和10%153万元人民币
Zheng Q K[33]浙江省杭州市2017年道路交通安全居民1 092CV每年死亡人数减少到原来2/5439.99万元人民币
刘文歌[34]辽宁省大连市2018年道路交通安全私家车出行者324DCE平均死亡风险降低7‱105.76万元人民币
刘文歌[35]辽宁省大连市2018年道路交通安全私家车出行者1 546CV未来10年死亡风险降低1‱231.08万元人民币
Jin Y[36]北京市2016年空气污染居民1 107DCE每年发病率和死亡率降低0.1‱554万元人民币
彭菲[37]成渝地区2018年空气污染居民1 205CV降低5‰死亡率394.8万元人民币
张羽[38]四川省成都市2020年建筑职业市场/新型冠状病毒感染疫情建筑从业者/
居民		536/571（分2种
风险进行调查）		CV降低0.5‱死亡率429.472万元人民币/459.079万元人民币
Cao C J[39]北京市、山西省晋中市、江苏省扬州市、江西省赣州市、广东省汕头市、吉林省四平市2019年空气污染≥18岁居民3936CV每年降低12/10万死亡风险510万元人民币
), ArticleFig(id=1321170529575350315, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

纳入文献一般特征

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
第一作者研究地区调查年份研究领域研究人群有效样本量研究方法风险变动原始VSL报告值
Qin X Z[10]中国2005年劳动力市场劳动者1 285 012CWD平均死亡率为6.62 / 10万181万元人民币
Wang H[13]重庆市1998年空气污染15～80岁居民482CV死亡风险降低0.5‱28.6万元人民币
Guo X Q[14]四川省成都市1995年空气污染工人997CV死亡风险降低3‱、5‱和10‱1.2万⁓12万美元
Hammitt J K[15]北京市、安徽省
安庆市		1999年空气污染18～65成年人3700CV死亡风险降低50‱⁓60‱0.4万⁓1.7万美元
梅强[16]江苏省2004年劳动力市场工人933CV工作危险等级增加1级507.65万⁓557.78 万元人民币
罗俊鹏[17]北京市道路交通安全≥18岁成年人500CV死亡风险降低2‱51.3万元人民币
GUO X Q[18]中国1995年和
2000—
2002年		劳动力市场工人21 698CWD4.5万美元
曾贤刚[19]上海市、广西壮族自治区南宁市、江西省九江市空气污染40～80岁居民380/ 344/355
（上海/南宁/
九江）		CV10年间死亡风险降低10‰和5‰约100万元人民币
Liu W G[20]辽宁省大连市道路交通安全私家车出行者1 050CV绝对风险降低分别为6/10万、12/10万和18/10万55万⁓156万元
人民币
党健[21]河南省义马市2010年劳动力市场工人903CV工作危险性减少
一半		362.350 016万 ⁓426.932 518万元人民币
刘文歌[22]辽宁省大连市2011年道路交通安全私家车出行者1 056CV每年致命风险降低2‱59.8万元人民币
Liu W G[23]辽宁省大连市2011年道路交通安全私家车出行者213DCE平均死亡风险降低1‱36万元人民币
Wang H[24]江苏丹阳市、贵州省六盘水市、
天津市		2000年癌症预防居民838CV1种药能确保1年不患癌症48.1⁓81.4万元
人民币
程启智[25]北方地区2010年劳动力市场工人863HC/CV工作危险性减少
一半		400⁓600 万元
人民币
刘文歌[26]辽宁省大连市2011年道路交通安全私家车出行者926CV每年致命风险降低2‱59.8万元人民币
高婷[27]北京市2014年空气污染居民722CV死亡率降低1.5‱66.7万⁓133.3万元人民币
Yang Z[28]江苏省南京市2014—
2015年		道路交通安全居民2 857DCE每年死亡人数减少到原来一半718.440 6万元
人民币
Hoffmann S[29]上海市、江西省九江市、广西壮族自治区南宁市2006年空气污染居民980CV每年死亡率风险降低5‱147万元人民币
Huang D S[30]北京市2010年空气污染居民475DCE10年内死亡风险降低2‰/1.5‰/1‰524万元人民币
Hammitt J K[31]四川省成都市2016年健康18～70岁居民2 048CV当年死亡风险降低3‱和5‱55万美元
Hao Y[32]74个城市2016年空气污染居民308CV未来10年死亡风险降低5%和10%153万元人民币
Zheng Q K[33]浙江省杭州市2017年道路交通安全居民1 092CV每年死亡人数减少到原来2/5439.99万元人民币
刘文歌[34]辽宁省大连市2018年道路交通安全私家车出行者324DCE平均死亡风险降低7‱105.76万元人民币
刘文歌[35]辽宁省大连市2018年道路交通安全私家车出行者1 546CV未来10年死亡风险降低1‱231.08万元人民币
Jin Y[36]北京市2016年空气污染居民1 107DCE每年发病率和死亡率降低0.1‱554万元人民币
彭菲[37]成渝地区2018年空气污染居民1 205CV降低5‰死亡率394.8万元人民币
张羽[38]四川省成都市2020年建筑职业市场/新型冠状病毒感染疫情建筑从业者/
居民		536/571（分2种
风险进行调查）		CV降低0.5‱死亡率429.472万元人民币/459.079万元人民币
Cao C J[39]北京市、山西省晋中市、江苏省扬州市、江西省赣州市、广东省汕头市、吉林省四平市2019年空气污染≥18岁居民3936CV每年降低12/10万死亡风险510万元人民币
), ArticleFig(id=1321170529680207916, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Maximum, minimum and median values of a statistical life (in tens of thousands of Chinese yuan adjusted to the consumer price index of 2021) associated with air pollution/traffic safety/occupational safety/health conditions estimated by different numbers of studies, the four hazard-specific median values of a statistical life estimated by different numbers of studies with stated/revealed preference, and the main common factors influencing the estimates

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
领域合计陈述偏好研究显示偏好研究共同影响因素
最大值
（万元）		最小值
（万元）		中位数
（万元）		研究个数中位数
（万元）		研究个数中位数
（万元）		研究个数
空气污染677.1013.94168.9012182.561100收入水平、教育程度、年龄、家庭规模、自我认知的身体健康状况
交通安全808.9944.1498.57998.57900收入水平、教育程度、年龄、认知风险程度
职业安全752.5459.48499.606626.074155.302收入水平、教育程度、年龄、认知风险程度、性别、婚姻状况
健康463.21103.38403.303403.30300收入水平、教育程度、年龄、风险变动
), ArticleFig(id=1321170529764093997, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321170524386997248, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

不同研究领域和研究方法VSL估计值及支付意见主要影响因素

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
领域合计陈述偏好研究显示偏好研究共同影响因素
最大值
（万元）		最小值
（万元）		中位数
（万元）		研究个数中位数
（万元）		研究个数中位数
（万元）		研究个数
空气污染677.1013.94168.9012182.561100收入水平、教育程度、年龄、家庭规模、自我认知的身体健康状况
交通安全808.9944.1498.57998.57900收入水平、教育程度、年龄、认知风险程度
职业安全752.5459.48499.606626.074155.302收入水平、教育程度、年龄、认知风险程度、性别、婚姻状况
健康463.21103.38403.303403.30300收入水平、教育程度、年龄、风险变动
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基于支付意愿法中国统计生命价值系统评价
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那艺诺 , 李艺 , 王丹 , 刘冰洁 , 张歆 *, *
中国公共卫生 | 综　述 2025,41(2): 239-245
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中国公共卫生 |综　述 2025 , 41 (2) : 239 -245
基于支付意愿法中国统计生命价值系统评价
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那艺诺（2000—），硕士在读，研究方向：支付意愿分析、统计生命价值估算方法

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那艺诺, 李艺, 王丹, 刘冰洁, 张歆*, *
作者信息
  • 哈尔滨医科大学卫生经济学教研室，哈尔滨 150081
通讯作者:
张歆，E-mail：
作者简介:

那艺诺（2000—），硕士在读，研究方向：支付意愿分析、统计生命价值估算方法

Willingness-to-pay-based estimates of the value of statistical life in China: a systematic review
Yinuo NA, Yi LI, Dan WANG, Bingjie LIU, Xin ZHANG
Affiliations
  • Department of Health Economics, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China
    • Corresponding Author:
    ZHANG Xin, E-mail:
出版时间: 2025-02-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1145373
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摘要
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目的

基于支付意愿法系统评价中国统计生命价值（VSL），比较不同领域和不同估计方法VSL估计值的差异，为今后的政策制定提供更准确的生命价值评估依据。

方法

检索中国知网数据库、维普中文数据库、PubMed数据库、Embase数据库、Web of Science数据库和MEDLINE数据库，并辅以文献追溯法收集各数据库建库至2024年4月1日公开发表的关于中国基于支付意愿法进行VSL实证研究的相关文献，从研究领域和研究方法等角度对纳入文献的VSL估计值进行系统评价。

结果

本研究共纳入28篇文献进行系统综述，其中空气污染领域11篇、交通安全领域9篇、职业安全领域5篇、健康领域2篇、混合领域1篇，采用陈述偏好方法研究26篇、显示偏好方法研究2篇；我国总体研究的VSL中位数估计值为196.22万元，其中空气污染领域、交通安全领域、职业安全领域和健康领域的VSL中位数估计值分别为168.90万元、98.57万元、499.60万元和403.30万元，陈述偏好方法研究和显示偏好方法研究的VSL中位数估计值分别为182.56万元和155.30万元；空气污染领域支付意愿的主要影响因素为收入水平、教育程度、年龄、家庭规模和自我认知的身体健康状况，交通安全领域支付意愿的主要影响因素为收入水平、教育程度、年龄和认知风险程度，职业安全领域支付意愿的主要影响因素为收入水平、教育程度、年龄、认知风险程度、性别和婚姻状况，健康领域支付意愿的主要影响因素为收入水平、教育程度、年龄和风险变动。

结论

VSL估计值因研究领域和研究方法的不同存在一定差异，各领域VSL估计的共同影响因素主要为收入水平、教育程度、年龄和认知风险。

统计生命价值（VSL）  /  支付意愿法  /  系统评价  /  中国
Objective

To conduct a systematic review of willingness-to-pay (WTP)-based estimates of the value of statistical life (VSL) reported by studies in China, and to compare VSLs associated with different hazards and estimation methods in order to provide more accurate estimates of VSL for future policy decisions.

Methods

Empirical studies in China on WTP-based VSL estimates published through April 1, 2024 were collected by searching the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP Chinese Database, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and MEDLINEand supplemented by a literature review method.The VSL estimates reported in the studies were systematically evaluated in terms of research scope and methods.

Results

Of the 28 studies reviewed, 11 were on VSLs related to air pollution, 9 to traffic safety, 5 to occupational safety, 2 to health conditions, and 1 to a combined circumstance, with 26 studies using stated preference surveys and 2 using revealed preference surveys. The median VSL estimate (in million of Chinese yuan) for all reviewed studies was 1.962 2, with VSL estimates of 1.689 0 for air pollution, 0.985 7 for traffic safety, 4.996 0 for occupational safety, and 4.033 0 for health conditions and combined circumstances; the median VSL estimates for studies using stated and revealed preference surveys were 1.825 6 and 1.553 0, respectively. The main factors influencing WTP were income, education, age, household size, and perceived health status for studies related to air pollution; income, education, age, and perceived risk for studies related to traffic safety; income, education, age, perceived risk, gender, and marital status for studies related to occupational safety; and income, education, age, and risk variation for studies related to health conditions.

Conclusions

VSL estimates from studies in China show some variation due to differences in research scope and methodology. The common factors influencing VSL estimates across studies are primarily income, education, age, and perceived risk.

value of statistical life  /  willingness-to-pay method  /  systematic review  /  China
那艺诺, 李艺, 王丹, 刘冰洁, 张歆. 基于支付意愿法中国统计生命价值系统评价. 中国公共卫生, 2025 , 41 (2) : 239 -245 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1145373
Yinuo NA, Yi LI, Dan WANG, Bingjie LIU, Xin ZHANG. Willingness-to-pay-based estimates of the value of statistical life in China: a systematic review[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2025 , 41 (2) : 239 -245 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1145373
正文
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统计生命价值（value of a statistical life，VSL）为在特定时间段内财富和死亡率风险之间的边际替代率[1]，其本质是估算降低一定死亡概率的价值[2]。VSL被广泛用于全球公共卫生和安全项目的成本效益分析（cost benefit analysis，CBA），如运输安全、职业卫生与安全和环境保护等领域[3]，其估计方法主要包括人力资本法（human capital approach，HC）和支付意愿法（willingness-to-pay，WTP）[4]。HC法使用市场工资率对健康时间施加货币权重，并根据未来收入的现值评估方案的价值[5]，但由于该方法未考虑人们对生命的主观评价，且仅适用于劳动力市场，其应用逐渐减少[6–9]；WTP法通过问卷调查估算个体为降低死亡风险愿意支付的金额，可进一步分为显示性偏好和陈述性偏好[10]。显示性偏好基于个人的实际市场行为估算VSL值，如补偿性工资差异法（compensating wage differential method，CWD）[6]；陈述性偏好通过提供假设场景评估个体选择，常用的方法包括条件估值法（contingent valuation method，CV）和联合分析法（conjoint analysis method，CA）[11]，其中离散选择实验（discrete choice experiment，DCE）是CA的一种常见形式[5]。近年来关于VSL的研究不断增多，但不同国家地区在社会经济结构和健康认知等方面的差异性较大[12]，估计结果难以推广。为系统了解中国VSL实证研究的现状，本研究通过检索中国知网数据库、维普中文数据库、PubMed数据库、Embase数据库、Web of Science数据库和MEDLINE数据库并辅以文献追溯法收集各数据库建库至2024年4月1日公开发表的关于中国基于支付意愿法进行VSL实证研究的相关文献，从研究领域和研究方法等角度对纳入文献的VSL估计值进行了系统评价，旨在为今后的政策制定提供更准确的生命价值评估依据。结果报告如下。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　文献检索策略
在中国知网数据库、维普中文数据库、PubMed数据库、Embase数据库、Web of Science数据库和MEDLINE数据库中检索各数据库建库至2024年4月1日公开发表的关于中国基于支付意愿法进行VSL实证研究的相关文献，同时辅以文献追溯法收集更多相关文献。末次检索日期为2024年4月1日。检索采取主题词和自由词相结合的方式。中文检索词为：支付意愿、陈述偏好、显示偏好、条件价值评估法、选择实验、统计生命价值、统计生命值、生命价值、预防死亡价值、预计死亡值、中国；英文检索词为：willingness to pay、WTP、stated preference、revealed preference、contingent valuation method、CVM、choice experiment、CE、the value of life、value of statistical life、value of a statistical life、value of prevented fatality、value of a prevented fatality、VSL、VoSL、VPF、VSLY、China。
1.2　纳入与排除标准
纳入标准：（1）研究地点在中国；（2）研究对象为中国人；（3）开展统计生命价值的实证研究；（4）文献中必须有明确的VSL值；（5）有较为详细的人口学特征资料。排除标准：（1）仅使用HC法的研究；（2）理论研究而非实证研究；（3）研究内容不符；（4）学位论文、二次研究、讲座、评论和会议摘要等；（5）原文无法获取；（6）研究地点是除中国以外地区；（7）非中英文文献；（8）重复发表的文献。
1.3　数据提取与质量控制
收集文献资料，内容包括第一作者、研究地区、调查年份、研究领域、研究人群、有效样本量、研究方法、风险变动、原始VSL报告值和支付意愿的主要影响因素等。由2名研究者独立筛选文献、提取资料并交叉核对，如遇分歧，则咨询第三方协助判断，缺乏的资料尽量与作者联系予以补充。文献筛选时首先阅读文题和摘要，在排除明显不相关的文献后，进一步阅读全文，以确定最终是否纳入。
2　结　果
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2.1　文献基本情况（图1、表1）
共检索出相关文献434篇（中文文献114篇、英文文献320篇），剔重后保留276篇文献，另通过文献追溯法间接获取14篇文献，经阅读文题和摘要初筛和阅读全文复筛后最终纳入分析28篇文献（中文文献12篇、英文文献16篇），文献筛选流程见图1。纳入文献的时间跨度较大，最早可追溯至2006年，随后关于VSL的研究数量逐渐增加；研究对象均为成年人，工人和居民是最主要的受访者。纳入的28篇文献中，东部地区7篇，东北部地区7篇，西部地区5篇，中部地区1篇，多中心研究6篇，2篇劳动力市场的文献使用了全国的工资数据；从研究领域看，空气污染领域11篇，交通安全领域9篇，职业安全领域5篇，健康领域2篇，混合领域1篇；采用陈述偏好方法研究26篇（21篇使用了CV法，5篇使用了DCE法），显示偏好方法研究2篇，纳入研究中使用陈述偏好方法估算出的VSL值较显示偏好方法估算出的VSL值更大。
2.2　不同研究领域和研究方法VSL估计值比较（表2）
进一步将纳入研究按照研究领域进行整合，所有VSL估计值均经2021年居民消费价格指数[40]调整为2021年人民币。考虑到极高或极低值可能存在的偏倚，对于报告最高和最低VSL估计值范围的研究，将其平均值作为该研究的VSL估计值[6]。所有纳入研究的总体VSL中位数估计值为196.22万元。VSL估计值因研究领域和研究方法的不同而存在较大差异，VSL中位数估计值从高到低依次为职业安全领域（499.60万元）、健康领域（403.30万元）、空气污染领域（168.90万元）和交通安全领域（98.57万元）；陈述偏好方法研究和显示偏好方法研究的VSL中位数估计值分别为182.56万元和155.30万元。空气污染领域支付意愿的主要影响因素分别为收入水平、教育程度、年龄、家庭规模和自我认知的身体健康状况，交通安全领域支付意愿的主要影响因素分别为收入水平、教育程度、年龄和认知风险程度，职业安全领域支付意愿的主要影响因素分别为收入水平、教育程度、年龄、认知风险程度、性别和婚姻状况，健康领域支付意愿的主要影响因素分别为收入水平、教育程度、年龄和风险变动。
3　讨　论
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20世纪70年代以来，VSL值这一主题的研究数量逐年增多，但研究结果的差异也较大，给应用带来了困难。本研究纳入2006—2023年中国基于支付意愿法进行的研究结果显示，经居民消费价格指数调整后，VSL估计值范围为13.94万元～808.99万元，中位数为196.22万元。2011年的一项基于陈述偏好方法的全球VSL综述中纳入了约850个来自全球38个国家的成年人群体，估计的VSL值从4450美元到1.97亿美元不等[11]。2012年一项针对瑞典的VSL研究综述中，估计的VSL值从900万到9800万瑞典克朗，中位数为2 300万瑞典克朗，与当时瑞典官方推荐VSL值的2 200万瑞典克朗相差不大[41]。2015年Robinson L A等[42]对美国VSL进行综述得出的VSL估计值为420万美元～1 370万美元，中位数为900万美元；2021年一项对澳大利亚VSL研究的系统综述得出VSL的中位数估计值为730万澳元[4]；2021年Keller等[6]对全球120项VSL系统综述得出全球的VSL中位数估计值为570万美元。本研究基于支付意愿法得出的我国VSL中位数估计值较以上研究的整合证据偏低，可能与以上研究的主要为发达国家有关，因此未来需与发展中国家，特别是亚洲国家的相关证据进行比较，从而更全面地评估我国的VSL。
由于风险认知和风险人群的差异，VSL可能在不同的风险背景下存在差异，因此在应用VSL值时可根据特定的领域选择合适的VSL值。Dekker T等[43]研究表明，对于道路安全情况下的VSL值应乘以系数1.8以适用于空气污染情况。本研究中，空气污染领域和交通安全领域的VSL值也呈现出类似的关系。这一发现强调了在不同风险领域应用VSL时应考虑风险特性和环境因素，以确保评估结果的准确性和适用性。整合纳入研究中VSL结果发现，健康领域和职业安全领域的VSL值显著高于其他领域。这可能是因为这些领域的风险直接影响个人的经济收入、生活质量及其长期健康状况，因此人们更愿意为保护自身劳动力和健康支付更高的费用，以避免潜在的经济损失和生活质量下降。
在我国采用陈述偏好法进行VSL的研究已成为主流，本研究纳入的28篇文献中，使用陈述偏好方法的研究为26篇，通常应用于职业安全领域。研究表明，陈述偏好方法主要被用于提供创伤死亡风险和疾病风险的VSL估计，广泛应用于大气污染、交通安全和健康领域[41]，通常陈述偏好方法被认为较显示偏好方法产生更大的VSL值，这可能与调查对象在假设的选择情境中未充分考虑到他们的预算限制，从而夸大了其支付意愿有关[11]。本研究中，尽管采用陈述偏好方法得到的VSL值高于显示偏好方法，但由于显示偏好方法和陈述偏好方法纳入研究的文献数量相差悬殊，目前无法得出关于两种方法VSL值差异的结论。
风险变动概率的设计以及问卷的通俗易懂性是应用陈述偏好方法评估生命价值的重要环节。本研究纳入文献中，风险变动概率常以年为单位，使用年死亡率风险降低的百分比来表述。然而人们的支付意愿对风险变化的敏感性较低[44]。研究表明，受访者对死亡风险降低50%时的理解度最高，而涉及较小风险变化的问题通常会导致更高的VSL估计[35]；Viscusi W K等[45]研究亦表明人们倾向于高估概率很小的事件。因此，为了提高受访者对风险变动概率的理解，未来研究应尽可能增强受访者对风险微小变化的敏感性，如提供风险变动的参照依据以帮助其更好地理解这些变化的概率。
本研究结果显示，受访者的教育程度、收入水平和风险认知程度的提高均会增强其支付意愿，且呈一种单调变化的线性关系。Hammitt J K等[31]对成都市居民降低年度死亡风险支付意愿的一项面板数据研究表明，统计生命价值的增速远超过收入的增速，收入弹性约为3.0，为富有弹性。年龄对VSL的影响尚不一致，有研究认为年龄这一变量对支付意愿的影响并不显著[22]；但也研究认为年龄越小，降低死亡风险的支付意愿越高[19]。此外，还有国外研究表明年龄与WTP之间呈倒U型关系[46]。Qin X Z等[10]在应用享乐工资模型对职业安全领域VSL值估计时提出，年龄及其平方项的系数非常显著，年轻人的工资率随年龄和经验的增加而增加，工资收入的峰值年龄约为40岁，之后增长率逐渐降低，直至为负，认为年龄对工资率具有非线性影响。除了收入和教育程度等普遍性的影响因素[47–48]，不同领域还有一些特异性的影响因素。职业安全领域强调了性别和婚姻状况对VSL的影响，有研究认为男性的工资率普遍高于女性[10]，男性更有可能为降低风险买单[28]。婚姻所带来的动力和稳定能提高生产率[10]，进而提高工资率增加收入，从而影响VSL。本研究空气污染领域研究结果显示，家庭规模和自我认知的身体健康状况对VSL产生明显影响[19]，家庭规模越大的支付意愿越高，对自我的健康评价越高的支付意愿越低。
综上所述，VSL估计值因研究领域和研究方法的不同存在较大差异，各领域VSL估计的共同影响因素主要为收入水平、教育程度、年龄和认知风险。作为中国VSL实证研究领域的首篇系统性综述，本文对该领域的研究成果进行了全面梳理，并总结了当前的进展和主要研究结论，但研究发现目前现有的研究存在一定的局限性。一是样本特征差异对VSL值估计具有重要影响，由于儿童通常缺乏独立的经济手段以及回答支付意愿问题所需的认知能力，目前研究中样本人群大多集中在劳动力年龄，而既往研究表明，降低儿童发病率或死亡风险的WTP值可能明显大于成年人降低自己发病率或死亡风险的WTP值[42]；二是由于陈述偏好研究主要目的是获得受影响人群降低死亡风险的支付意愿，需谨慎地采用具有代表性的样本，但既往研究主要局限在单一城市或地区开展，受地区经济及文化多样性的影响难以将结果外推至更大范围；三是研究中的假设应当反映目前现实世界的状况，如假设某种药物能确保1年内不患癌症可能会导致WTP和VSL的估计出现偏差[24]。因此，为了克服这些局限性，在今后的研究中应选择涵盖更广泛年龄段和社会经济背景的人群（包括儿童和老年人）全面评估VSL值，并在不同城市和地区开展比较研究深入理解经济与文化多样性对VSL值的影响；此外，还可通过文献综述或专家咨询来确保假设的合理性，从而提高VSL值估计的准确性。

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doi: 10.11847/zgggws1145373
  • 接收时间：2024-07-05
  • 首发时间：2026-10-25
  • 出版时间：2025-02-10
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  • 收稿日期：2024-07-05
  • 修回日期：2024-09-25
  • 录用日期：2025-01-24
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    哈尔滨医科大学卫生经济学教研室，哈尔滨 150081

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