中国公共卫生

年份	标化发病率/（1/10万）		标化死亡率/（1/10万）	标化DALYs率/（1/10万）
1990	4.54	5.55	3.64	4.83	5.91	3.90	123.16	151.33	95.37
1991	4.57	5.59	3.64	4.86	5.95	3.90	123.62	152.31	95.28
1992	4.58	5.60	3.65	4.87	5.96	3.92	123.44	152.04	95.18
1993	4.59	5.59	3.68	4.88	5.95	3.95	123.17	151.02	95.70
1994	4.59	5.56	3.72	4.88	5.91	3.98	122.59	149.42	96.16
1995	4.62	5.62	3.72	4.91	5.98	3.99	122.96	150.57	95.78
1996	4.65	5.64	3.76	4.94	6.00	4.03	123.27	150.65	96.31
1997	4.66	5.66	3.76	4.95	6.01	4.03	123.24	150.82	96.06
1998	4.70	5.71	3.80	5.00	6.07	4.06	123.99	151.77	96.64
1999	4.78	5.80	3.86	5.08	6.16	4.13	125.33	153.27	97.91
2000	4.89	5.98	3.92	5.19	6.35	4.19	127.36	156.74	98.63
2001	4.93	6.05	3.93	5.24	6.43	4.20	127.63	157.77	98.29
2002	4.92	6.07	3.89	5.22	6.44	4.16	127.14	158.10	97.01
2003	4.95	6.17	3.88	5.25	6.55	4.15	127.17	159.28	96.14
2004	5.03	6.29	3.92	5.33	6.66	4.18	128.23	161.47	96.11
2005	5.07	6.37	3.93	5.35	6.72	4.18	128.37	162.32	95.65
2006	5.01	6.31	3.86	5.26	6.62	4.09	126.61	160.73	93.71
2007	5.04	6.39	3.86	5.27	6.69	4.07	126.84	161.94	93.17
2008	5.10	6.49	3.87	5.32	6.77	4.08	127.78	164.03	92.89
2009	5.16	6.62	3.87	5.38	6.89	4.07	128.87	166.63	92.49
2010	5.26	6.79	3.90	5.46	7.04	4.09	130.87	170.42	92.73
2011	5.33	6.91	3.92	5.52	7.15	4.10	132.00	172.80	92.66
2012	5.31	6.96	3.84	5.48	7.17	4.00	131.43	173.67	90.77
2013	5.26	6.92	3.77	5.40	7.10	3.92	129.87	172.36	89.04
2014	5.20	6.84	3.74	5.33	7.00	3.86	128.34	170.34	88.05
2015	5.21	6.86	3.76	5.34	7.03	3.88	128.25	170.15	88.23
2016	5.27	6.90	3.83	5.40	7.07	3.96	129.22	170.77	89.59
2017	5.33	6.93	3.91	5.45	7.07	4.03	130.87	172.04	91.48
2018	5.42	7.02	4.00	5.52	7.14	4.11	132.71	173.96	93.20
2019	5.52	7.14	4.08	5.62	7.25	4.20	134.76	176.52	94.80
2020	5.60	7.24	4.16	5.69	7.33	4.27	136.51	178.48	96.31
2021	5.64	7.29	4.18	5.72	7.37	4.29	137.23	179.36	96.89
AAPC/%	0.72	0.89	0.48	0.56	0.55	0.33	0.36	0.55	0.07
t值	6.38	8.37	3.69	9.20	4.33	4.53	6.89	5.89	0.71
P值	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	0.48

年份

标化发病率/（1/10万）

标化死亡率/（1/10万）

标化DALYs率/（1/10万）

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

1990

4.54

5.55

3.64

4.83

5.91

3.90

123.16

151.33

95.37

1991

4.57

5.59

3.64

4.86

5.95

3.90

123.62

152.31

95.28

1992

4.58

5.60

3.65

4.87

5.96

3.92

123.44

152.04

95.18

1993

4.59

5.59

3.68

4.88

5.95

3.95

123.17

151.02

95.70

1994

4.59

5.56

3.72

4.88

5.91

3.98

122.59

149.42

96.16

1995

4.62

5.62

3.72

4.91

5.98

3.99

122.96

150.57

95.78

1996

4.65

5.64

3.76

4.94

6.00

4.03

123.27

150.65

96.31

1997

4.66

5.66

3.76

4.95

6.01

4.03

123.24

150.82

96.06

1998

4.70

5.71

3.80

5.00

6.07

4.06

123.99

151.77

96.64

1999

4.78

5.80

3.86

5.08

6.16

4.13

125.33

153.27

97.91

2000

4.89

5.98

3.92

5.19

6.35

4.19

127.36

156.74

98.63

2001

4.93

6.05

3.93

5.24

6.43

4.20

127.63

157.77

98.29

2002

4.92

6.07

3.89

5.22

6.44

4.16

127.14

158.10

97.01

2003

4.95

6.17

3.88

5.25

6.55

4.15

127.17

159.28

96.14

2004

5.03

6.29

3.92

5.33

6.66

4.18

128.23

161.47

96.11

2005

5.07

6.37

3.93

5.35

6.72

4.18

128.37

162.32

95.65

2006

5.01

6.31

3.86

5.26

6.62

4.09

126.61

160.73

93.71

2007

5.04

6.39

3.86

5.27

6.69

4.07

126.84

161.94

93.17

2008

5.10

6.49

3.87

5.32

6.77

4.08

127.78

164.03

92.89

2009

5.16

6.62

3.87

5.38

6.89

4.07

128.87

166.63

92.49

2010

5.26

6.79

3.90

5.46

7.04

4.09

130.87

170.42

92.73

2011

5.33

6.91

3.92

5.52

7.15

4.10

132.00

172.80

92.66

2012

5.31

6.96

3.84

5.48

7.17

4.00

131.43

173.67

90.77

2013

5.26

6.92

3.77

5.40

7.10

3.92

129.87

172.36

89.04

2014

5.20

6.84

3.74

5.33

7.00

3.86

128.34

170.34

88.05

2015

5.21

6.86

3.76

5.34

7.03

3.88

128.25

170.15

88.23

2016

5.27

6.90

3.83

5.40

7.07

3.96

129.22

170.77

89.59

2017

5.33

6.93

3.91

5.45

7.07

4.03

130.87

172.04

91.48

2018

5.42

7.02

4.00

5.52

7.14

4.11

132.71

173.96

93.20

2019

5.52

7.14

4.08

5.62

7.25

4.20

134.76

176.52

94.80

2020

5.60

7.24

4.16

5.69

7.33

4.27

136.51

178.48

96.31

2021

5.64

7.29

4.18

5.72

7.37

4.29

137.23

179.36

96.89

AAPC/%

0.72

0.89

0.48

0.56

0.55

0.33

0.36

0.55

0.07

t值

6.38

8.37

3.69

9.20

4.33

4.53

6.89

5.89

0.71

P值

<0.001

0.48

年份	标化发病率/（1/10万）		标化死亡率/（1/10万）	标化DALYs率/（1/10万）
1990	4.54	5.55	3.64	4.83	5.91	3.90	123.16	151.33	95.37
1991	4.57	5.59	3.64	4.86	5.95	3.90	123.62	152.31	95.28
1992	4.58	5.60	3.65	4.87	5.96	3.92	123.44	152.04	95.18
1993	4.59	5.59	3.68	4.88	5.95	3.95	123.17	151.02	95.70
1994	4.59	5.56	3.72	4.88	5.91	3.98	122.59	149.42	96.16
1995	4.62	5.62	3.72	4.91	5.98	3.99	122.96	150.57	95.78
1996	4.65	5.64	3.76	4.94	6.00	4.03	123.27	150.65	96.31
1997	4.66	5.66	3.76	4.95	6.01	4.03	123.24	150.82	96.06
1998	4.70	5.71	3.80	5.00	6.07	4.06	123.99	151.77	96.64
1999	4.78	5.80	3.86	5.08	6.16	4.13	125.33	153.27	97.91
2000	4.89	5.98	3.92	5.19	6.35	4.19	127.36	156.74	98.63
2001	4.93	6.05	3.93	5.24	6.43	4.20	127.63	157.77	98.29
2002	4.92	6.07	3.89	5.22	6.44	4.16	127.14	158.10	97.01
2003	4.95	6.17	3.88	5.25	6.55	4.15	127.17	159.28	96.14
2004	5.03	6.29	3.92	5.33	6.66	4.18	128.23	161.47	96.11
2005	5.07	6.37	3.93	5.35	6.72	4.18	128.37	162.32	95.65
2006	5.01	6.31	3.86	5.26	6.62	4.09	126.61	160.73	93.71
2007	5.04	6.39	3.86	5.27	6.69	4.07	126.84	161.94	93.17
2008	5.10	6.49	3.87	5.32	6.77	4.08	127.78	164.03	92.89
2009	5.16	6.62	3.87	5.38	6.89	4.07	128.87	166.63	92.49
2010	5.26	6.79	3.90	5.46	7.04	4.09	130.87	170.42	92.73
2011	5.33	6.91	3.92	5.52	7.15	4.10	132.00	172.80	92.66
2012	5.31	6.96	3.84	5.48	7.17	4.00	131.43	173.67	90.77
2013	5.26	6.92	3.77	5.40	7.10	3.92	129.87	172.36	89.04
2014	5.20	6.84	3.74	5.33	7.00	3.86	128.34	170.34	88.05
2015	5.21	6.86	3.76	5.34	7.03	3.88	128.25	170.15	88.23
2016	5.27	6.90	3.83	5.40	7.07	3.96	129.22	170.77	89.59
2017	5.33	6.93	3.91	5.45	7.07	4.03	130.87	172.04	91.48
2018	5.42	7.02	4.00	5.52	7.14	4.11	132.71	173.96	93.20
2019	5.52	7.14	4.08	5.62	7.25	4.20	134.76	176.52	94.80
2020	5.60	7.24	4.16	5.69	7.33	4.27	136.51	178.48	96.31
2021	5.64	7.29	4.18	5.72	7.37	4.29	137.23	179.36	96.89
AAPC/%	0.72	0.89	0.48	0.56	0.55	0.33	0.36	0.55	0.07
t值	6.38	8.37	3.69	9.20	4.33	4.53	6.89	5.89	0.71
P值	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	0.48

年份

标化发病率/（1/10万）

标化死亡率/（1/10万）

标化DALYs率/（1/10万）

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

1990

4.54

5.55

3.64

4.83

5.91

3.90

123.16

151.33

95.37

1991

4.57

5.59

3.64

4.86

5.95

3.90

123.62

152.31

95.28

1992

4.58

5.60

3.65

4.87

5.96

3.92

123.44

152.04

95.18

1993

4.59

5.59

3.68

4.88

5.95

3.95

123.17

151.02

95.70

1994

4.59

5.56

3.72

4.88

5.91

3.98

122.59

149.42

96.16

1995

4.62

5.62

3.72

4.91

5.98

3.99

122.96

150.57

95.78

1996

4.65

5.64

3.76

4.94

6.00

4.03

123.27

150.65

96.31

1997

4.66

5.66

3.76

4.95

6.01

4.03

123.24

150.82

96.06

1998

4.70

5.71

3.80

5.00

6.07

4.06

123.99

151.77

96.64

1999

4.78

5.80

3.86

5.08

6.16

4.13

125.33

153.27

97.91

2000

4.89

5.98

3.92

5.19

6.35

4.19

127.36

156.74

98.63

2001

4.93

6.05

3.93

5.24

6.43

4.20

127.63

157.77

98.29

2002

4.92

6.07

3.89

5.22

6.44

4.16

127.14

158.10

97.01

2003

4.95

6.17

3.88

5.25

6.55

4.15

127.17

159.28

96.14

2004

5.03

6.29

3.92

5.33

6.66

4.18

128.23

161.47

96.11

2005

5.07

6.37

3.93

5.35

6.72

4.18

128.37

162.32

95.65

2006

5.01

6.31

3.86

5.26

6.62

4.09

126.61

160.73

93.71

2007

5.04

6.39

3.86

5.27

6.69

4.07

126.84

161.94

93.17

2008

5.10

6.49

3.87

5.32

6.77

4.08

127.78

164.03

92.89

2009

5.16

6.62

3.87

5.38

6.89

4.07

128.87

166.63

92.49

2010

5.26

6.79

3.90

5.46

7.04

4.09

130.87

170.42

92.73

2011

5.33

6.91

3.92

5.52

7.15

4.10

132.00

172.80

92.66

2012

5.31

6.96

3.84

5.48

7.17

4.00

131.43

173.67

90.77

2013

5.26

6.92

3.77

5.40

7.10

3.92

129.87

172.36

89.04

2014

5.20

6.84

3.74

5.33

7.00

3.86

128.34

170.34

88.05

2015

5.21

6.86

3.76

5.34

7.03

3.88

128.25

170.15

88.23

2016

5.27

6.90

3.83

5.40

7.07

3.96

129.22

170.77

89.59

2017

5.33

6.93

3.91

5.45

7.07

4.03

130.87

172.04

91.48

2018

5.42

7.02

4.00

5.52

7.14

4.11

132.71

173.96

93.20

2019

5.52

7.14

4.08

5.62

7.25

4.20

134.76

176.52

94.80

2020

5.60

7.24

4.16

5.69

7.33

4.27

136.51

178.48

96.31

2021

5.64

7.29

4.18

5.72

7.37

4.29

137.23

179.36

96.89

AAPC/%

0.72

0.89

0.48

0.56

0.55

0.33

0.36

0.55

0.07

t值

6.38

8.37

3.69

9.20

4.33

4.53

6.89

5.89

0.71

P值

<0.001

0.48

项目	分类	总体居民			女性居民
年龄效应/岁	15～19	–3.585	–5.289～–1.881	–3.638	–5.186～–2.090	–3.406	–5.346～–1.466
	20～24	–3.041	–4.187～–1.894	–3.117	–4.167～–2.067	–2.845	–4.130～–1.561
	25～29	–2.398	–3.223～–1.573	–2.423	–3.162～–1.684	–2.314	–3.272～–1.356
	30～34	–1.473	–2.041～–0.905	–1.357	–1.849～–0.866	–1.729	–2.454～–1.003
	35～39	–0.689	–1.130～–0.248	–0.537	–0.922～–0.152	–1.085	–1.645～–0.524
	40～44	–0.197	–0.570～0.176	–0.075	–0.404～0.254	–0.525	–0.984～–0.067
	45～49	0.076	–0.247～0.398	0.166	–0.119～0.452	–0.190	–0.581～0.201
	50～54	0.477	0.208～0.747	0.498	0.258～0.739	0.359	0.039～0.679
	55～59	0.785	0.562～1.009	0.766	0.566～0.966	0.736	0.473～0.999
	60～64	0.982	0.798～1.165	0.926	0.761～1.090	0.997	0.783～1.211
	65～69	1.147	0.996～1.297	1.064	0.929～1.199	1.212	1.037～1.387
	70～74	1.353	1.225～1.481	1.235	1.121～1.350	1.474	1.324～1.624
	75～79	1.398	1.272～1.524	1.256	1.145～1.368	1.557	1.407～1.707
	80～84	1.412	1.270～1.553	1.289	1.165～1.414	1.582	1.409～1.754
	85～89	1.527	1.357～1.698	1.623	1.475～1.772	1.557	1.347～1.767
	90～94	1.371	1.162～1.579	1.567	1.386～1.749	1.459	1.202～1.715
	≥95	0.856	0.603～1.109	0.755	0.533～0.977	1.162	0.852～1.472
时期效应/年份	1992—1996	–0.455	–0.586～–0.323	–0.477	–0.594～–0.361	–0.388	–0.545～–0.231
	1997—2001	–0.254	–0.340～–0.168	–0.304	–0.380～–0.227	–0.198	–0.299～–0.097
	2002—2006	–0.061	–0.112～–0.010	–0.101	–0.146～–0.056	–0.035	–0.093～0.023
	2007—2011	0.096	0.045～0.147	0.101	0.057～0.146	0.077	0.018～0.135
	2012—2016	0.235	0.150～0.320	0.292	0.218～0.367	0.162	0.061～0.264
	2017—2021	0.439	0.312～0.566	0.488	0.376～0.600	0.382	0.229～0.535
出生队列效应/年份	1897—1901	1.520	1.155～1.885	1.374	1.045～1.704	1.504	1.077～1.932
	1902—1906	1.320	1.010～1.631	1.254	0.978～1.530	1.317	0.949～1.685
	1907—1911	1.152	0.881～1.423	1.126	0.885～1.367	1.174	0.851～1.498
	1912—1916	1.001	0.760～1.242	1.053	0.839～1.266	1.016	0.728～1.304
	1917—1921	0.889	0.670～1.109	1.007	0.813～1.201	0.884	0.621～1.147
	1922—1926	0.809	0.602～1.016	0.881	0.697～1.064	0.827	0.578～1.076
	1927—1931	0.706	0.497～0.914	0.713	0.529～0.897	0.757	0.505～1.009
	1932—1936	0.590	0.368～0.812	0.606	0.410～0.802	0.646	0.377～0.915
	1937—1941	0.451	0.206～0.697	0.467	0.250～0.684	0.513	0.216～0.810
	1942—1946	0.298	0.022～0.573	0.301	0.057～0.545	0.373	0.038～0.707
	1947—1951	0.171	–0.140～0.482	0.171	–0.104～0.446	0.249	–0.129～0.626
	1952—1956	–0.002	–0.353～0.349	–0.004	–0.314～0.306	0.080	–0.347～0.507
	1957—1961	–0.163	–0.557～0.230	–0.171	–0.518～0.176	–0.086	–0.566～0.393
	1962—1966	–0.383	–0.824～0.058	–0.391	–0.779～–0.003	–0.314	–0.852～0.225
	1967—1971	–0.522	–1.014～–0.031	–0.529	–0.960～–0.097	–0.480	–1.085～0.125
	1972—1976	–0.706	–1.257～–0.155	–0.731	–1.213～–0.248	–0.666	–1.351～0.020
	1977—1981	–0.826	–1.442～–0.210	–0.847	–1.384～–0.310	–0.833	–1.612～–0.055
	1982—1986	–0.928	–1.654～–0.201	–0.940	–1.566～–0.314	–0.997	–1.947～–0.047
	1987—1991	–1.037	–1.992～–0.081	–1.024	–1.839～–0.209	–1.170	–2.424～0.085
	1992—1996	–1.214	–2.658～0.231	–1.199	–2.466～0.068	–1.346	–3.105～0.414
	1997—2001	–1.412	–3.655～0.831	–1.400	–3.388～0.589	–1.571	–4.263～1.121
	2002—2006	–1.716	–6.247～2.816	–1.719	–5.738～2.300	–1.877	–7.347～3.594

项目

分类

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

年龄效应/岁

15～19

–3.585

–5.289～–1.881

–3.638

–5.186～–2.090

–3.406

–5.346～–1.466

20～24

–3.041

–4.187～–1.894

–3.117

–4.167～–2.067

–2.845

–4.130～–1.561

25～29

–2.398

–3.223～–1.573

–2.423

–3.162～–1.684

–2.314

–3.272～–1.356

30～34

–1.473

–2.041～–0.905

–1.357

–1.849～–0.866

–1.729

–2.454～–1.003

35～39

–0.689

–1.130～–0.248

–0.537

–0.922～–0.152

–1.085

–1.645～–0.524

40～44

–0.197

–0.570～0.176

–0.075

–0.404～0.254

–0.525

–0.984～–0.067

45～49

0.076

–0.247～0.398

0.166

–0.119～0.452

–0.190

–0.581～0.201

50～54

0.477

0.208～0.747

0.498

0.258～0.739

0.359

0.039～0.679

55～59

0.785

0.562～1.009

0.766

0.566～0.966

0.736

0.473～0.999

60～64

0.982

0.798～1.165

0.926

0.761～1.090

0.997

0.783～1.211

65～69

1.147

0.996～1.297

1.064

0.929～1.199

1.212

1.037～1.387

70～74

1.353

1.225～1.481

1.235

1.121～1.350

1.474

1.324～1.624

75～79

1.398

1.272～1.524

1.256

1.145～1.368

1.557

1.407～1.707

80～84

1.412

1.270～1.553

1.289

1.165～1.414

1.582

1.409～1.754

85～89

1.527

1.357～1.698

1.623

1.475～1.772

1.557

1.347～1.767

90～94

1.371

1.162～1.579

1.567

1.386～1.749

1.459

1.202～1.715

≥95

0.856

0.603～1.109

0.755

0.533～0.977

1.162

0.852～1.472

时期效应/年份

1992—1996

–0.455

–0.586～–0.323

–0.477

–0.594～–0.361

–0.388

–0.545～–0.231

1997—2001

–0.254

–0.340～–0.168

–0.304

–0.380～–0.227

–0.198

–0.299～–0.097

2002—2006

–0.061

–0.112～–0.010

–0.101

–0.146～–0.056

–0.035

–0.093～0.023

2007—2011

0.096

0.045～0.147

0.101

0.057～0.146

0.077

0.018～0.135

2012—2016

0.235

0.150～0.320

0.292

0.218～0.367

0.162

0.061～0.264

2017—2021

0.439

0.312～0.566

0.488

0.376～0.600

0.382

0.229～0.535

出生队列效应/年份

1897—1901

1.520

1.155～1.885

1.374

1.045～1.704

1.504

1.077～1.932

1902—1906

1.320

1.010～1.631

1.254

0.978～1.530

1.317

0.949～1.685

1907—1911

1.152

0.881～1.423

1.126

0.885～1.367

1.174

0.851～1.498

1912—1916

1.001

0.760～1.242

1.053

0.839～1.266

1.016

0.728～1.304

1917—1921

0.889

0.670～1.109

1.007

0.813～1.201

0.884

0.621～1.147

1922—1926

0.809

0.602～1.016

0.881

0.697～1.064

0.827

0.578～1.076

1927—1931

0.706

0.497～0.914

0.713

0.529～0.897

0.757

0.505～1.009

1932—1936

0.590

0.368～0.812

0.606

0.410～0.802

0.646

0.377～0.915

1937—1941

0.451

0.206～0.697

0.467

0.250～0.684

0.513

0.216～0.810

1942—1946

0.298

0.022～0.573

0.301

0.057～0.545

0.373

0.038～0.707

1947—1951

0.171

–0.140～0.482

0.171

–0.104～0.446

0.249

–0.129～0.626

1952—1956

–0.002

–0.353～0.349

–0.004

–0.314～0.306

0.080

–0.347～0.507

1957—1961

–0.163

–0.557～0.230

–0.171

–0.518～0.176

–0.086

–0.566～0.393

1962—1966

–0.383

–0.824～0.058

–0.391

–0.779～–0.003

–0.314

–0.852～0.225

1967—1971

–0.522

–1.014～–0.031

–0.529

–0.960～–0.097

–0.480

–1.085～0.125

1972—1976

–0.706

–1.257～–0.155

–0.731

–1.213～–0.248

–0.666

–1.351～0.020

1977—1981

–0.826

–1.442～–0.210

–0.847

–1.384～–0.310

–0.833

–1.612～–0.055

1982—1986

–0.928

–1.654～–0.201

–0.940

–1.566～–0.314

–0.997

–1.947～–0.047

1987—1991

–1.037

–1.992～–0.081

–1.024

–1.839～–0.209

–1.170

–2.424～0.085

1992—1996

–1.214

–2.658～0.231

–1.199

–2.466～0.068

–1.346

–3.105～0.414

1997—2001

–1.412

–3.655～0.831

–1.400

–3.388～0.589

–1.571

–4.263～1.121

2002—2006

–1.716

–6.247～2.816

–1.719

–5.738～2.300

–1.877

–7.347～3.594

项目	分类	总体居民			女性居民
年龄效应/岁	15～19	–3.585	–5.289～–1.881	–3.638	–5.186～–2.090	–3.406	–5.346～–1.466
	20～24	–3.041	–4.187～–1.894	–3.117	–4.167～–2.067	–2.845	–4.130～–1.561
	25～29	–2.398	–3.223～–1.573	–2.423	–3.162～–1.684	–2.314	–3.272～–1.356
	30～34	–1.473	–2.041～–0.905	–1.357	–1.849～–0.866	–1.729	–2.454～–1.003
	35～39	–0.689	–1.130～–0.248	–0.537	–0.922～–0.152	–1.085	–1.645～–0.524
	40～44	–0.197	–0.570～0.176	–0.075	–0.404～0.254	–0.525	–0.984～–0.067
	45～49	0.076	–0.247～0.398	0.166	–0.119～0.452	–0.190	–0.581～0.201
	50～54	0.477	0.208～0.747	0.498	0.258～0.739	0.359	0.039～0.679
	55～59	0.785	0.562～1.009	0.766	0.566～0.966	0.736	0.473～0.999
	60～64	0.982	0.798～1.165	0.926	0.761～1.090	0.997	0.783～1.211
	65～69	1.147	0.996～1.297	1.064	0.929～1.199	1.212	1.037～1.387
	70～74	1.353	1.225～1.481	1.235	1.121～1.350	1.474	1.324～1.624
	75～79	1.398	1.272～1.524	1.256	1.145～1.368	1.557	1.407～1.707
	80～84	1.412	1.270～1.553	1.289	1.165～1.414	1.582	1.409～1.754
	85～89	1.527	1.357～1.698	1.623	1.475～1.772	1.557	1.347～1.767
	90～94	1.371	1.162～1.579	1.567	1.386～1.749	1.459	1.202～1.715
	≥95	0.856	0.603～1.109	0.755	0.533～0.977	1.162	0.852～1.472
时期效应/年份	1992—1996	–0.455	–0.586～–0.323	–0.477	–0.594～–0.361	–0.388	–0.545～–0.231
	1997—2001	–0.254	–0.340～–0.168	–0.304	–0.380～–0.227	–0.198	–0.299～–0.097
	2002—2006	–0.061	–0.112～–0.010	–0.101	–0.146～–0.056	–0.035	–0.093～0.023
	2007—2011	0.096	0.045～0.147	0.101	0.057～0.146	0.077	0.018～0.135
	2012—2016	0.235	0.150～0.320	0.292	0.218～0.367	0.162	0.061～0.264
	2017—2021	0.439	0.312～0.566	0.488	0.376～0.600	0.382	0.229～0.535
出生队列效应/年份	1897—1901	1.520	1.155～1.885	1.374	1.045～1.704	1.504	1.077～1.932
	1902—1906	1.320	1.010～1.631	1.254	0.978～1.530	1.317	0.949～1.685
	1907—1911	1.152	0.881～1.423	1.126	0.885～1.367	1.174	0.851～1.498
	1912—1916	1.001	0.760～1.242	1.053	0.839～1.266	1.016	0.728～1.304
	1917—1921	0.889	0.670～1.109	1.007	0.813～1.201	0.884	0.621～1.147
	1922—1926	0.809	0.602～1.016	0.881	0.697～1.064	0.827	0.578～1.076
	1927—1931	0.706	0.497～0.914	0.713	0.529～0.897	0.757	0.505～1.009
	1932—1936	0.590	0.368～0.812	0.606	0.410～0.802	0.646	0.377～0.915
	1937—1941	0.451	0.206～0.697	0.467	0.250～0.684	0.513	0.216～0.810
	1942—1946	0.298	0.022～0.573	0.301	0.057～0.545	0.373	0.038～0.707
	1947—1951	0.171	–0.140～0.482	0.171	–0.104～0.446	0.249	–0.129～0.626
	1952—1956	–0.002	–0.353～0.349	–0.004	–0.314～0.306	0.080	–0.347～0.507
	1957—1961	–0.163	–0.557～0.230	–0.171	–0.518～0.176	–0.086	–0.566～0.393
	1962—1966	–0.383	–0.824～0.058	–0.391	–0.779～–0.003	–0.314	–0.852～0.225
	1967—1971	–0.522	–1.014～–0.031	–0.529	–0.960～–0.097	–0.480	–1.085～0.125
	1972—1976	–0.706	–1.257～–0.155	–0.731	–1.213～–0.248	–0.666	–1.351～0.020
	1977—1981	–0.826	–1.442～–0.210	–0.847	–1.384～–0.310	–0.833	–1.612～–0.055
	1982—1986	–0.928	–1.654～–0.201	–0.940	–1.566～–0.314	–0.997	–1.947～–0.047
	1987—1991	–1.037	–1.992～–0.081	–1.024	–1.839～–0.209	–1.170	–2.424～0.085
	1992—1996	–1.214	–2.658～0.231	–1.199	–2.466～0.068	–1.346	–3.105～0.414
	1997—2001	–1.412	–3.655～0.831	–1.400	–3.388～0.589	–1.571	–4.263～1.121
	2002—2006	–1.716	–6.247～2.816	–1.719	–5.738～2.300	–1.877	–7.347～3.594

项目

分类

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

年龄效应/岁

15～19

–3.585

–5.289～–1.881

–3.638

–5.186～–2.090

–3.406

–5.346～–1.466

20～24

–3.041

–4.187～–1.894

–3.117

–4.167～–2.067

–2.845

–4.130～–1.561

25～29

–2.398

–3.223～–1.573

–2.423

–3.162～–1.684

–2.314

–3.272～–1.356

30～34

–1.473

–2.041～–0.905

–1.357

–1.849～–0.866

–1.729

–2.454～–1.003

35～39

–0.689

–1.130～–0.248

–0.537

–0.922～–0.152

–1.085

–1.645～–0.524

40～44

–0.197

–0.570～0.176

–0.075

–0.404～0.254

–0.525

–0.984～–0.067

45～49

0.076

–0.247～0.398

0.166

–0.119～0.452

–0.190

–0.581～0.201

50～54

0.477

0.208～0.747

0.498

0.258～0.739

0.359

0.039～0.679

55～59

0.785

0.562～1.009

0.766

0.566～0.966

0.736

0.473～0.999

60～64

0.982

0.798～1.165

0.926

0.761～1.090

0.997

0.783～1.211

65～69

1.147

0.996～1.297

1.064

0.929～1.199

1.212

1.037～1.387

70～74

1.353

1.225～1.481

1.235

1.121～1.350

1.474

1.324～1.624

75～79

1.398

1.272～1.524

1.256

1.145～1.368

1.557

1.407～1.707

80～84

1.412

1.270～1.553

1.289

1.165～1.414

1.582

1.409～1.754

85～89

1.527

1.357～1.698

1.623

1.475～1.772

1.557

1.347～1.767

90～94

1.371

1.162～1.579

1.567

1.386～1.749

1.459

1.202～1.715

≥95

0.856

0.603～1.109

0.755

0.533～0.977

1.162

0.852～1.472

时期效应/年份

1992—1996

–0.455

–0.586～–0.323

–0.477

–0.594～–0.361

–0.388

–0.545～–0.231

1997—2001

–0.254

–0.340～–0.168

–0.304

–0.380～–0.227

–0.198

–0.299～–0.097

2002—2006

–0.061

–0.112～–0.010

–0.101

–0.146～–0.056

–0.035

–0.093～0.023

2007—2011

0.096

0.045～0.147

0.101

0.057～0.146

0.077

0.018～0.135

2012—2016

0.235

0.150～0.320

0.292

0.218～0.367

0.162

0.061～0.264

2017—2021

0.439

0.312～0.566

0.488

0.376～0.600

0.382

0.229～0.535

出生队列效应/年份

1897—1901

1.520

1.155～1.885

1.374

1.045～1.704

1.504

1.077～1.932

1902—1906

1.320

1.010～1.631

1.254

0.978～1.530

1.317

0.949～1.685

1907—1911

1.152

0.881～1.423

1.126

0.885～1.367

1.174

0.851～1.498

1912—1916

1.001

0.760～1.242

1.053

0.839～1.266

1.016

0.728～1.304

1917—1921

0.889

0.670～1.109

1.007

0.813～1.201

0.884

0.621～1.147

1922—1926

0.809

0.602～1.016

0.881

0.697～1.064

0.827

0.578～1.076

1927—1931

0.706

0.497～0.914

0.713

0.529～0.897

0.757

0.505～1.009

1932—1936

0.590

0.368～0.812

0.606

0.410～0.802

0.646

0.377～0.915

1937—1941

0.451

0.206～0.697

0.467

0.250～0.684

0.513

0.216～0.810

1942—1946

0.298

0.022～0.573

0.301

0.057～0.545

0.373

0.038～0.707

1947—1951

0.171

–0.140～0.482

0.171

–0.104～0.446

0.249

–0.129～0.626

1952—1956

–0.002

–0.353～0.349

–0.004

–0.314～0.306

0.080

–0.347～0.507

1957—1961

–0.163

–0.557～0.230

–0.171

–0.518～0.176

–0.086

–0.566～0.393

1962—1966

–0.383

–0.824～0.058

–0.391

–0.779～–0.003

–0.314

–0.852～0.225

1967—1971

–0.522

–1.014～–0.031

–0.529

–0.960～–0.097

–0.480

–1.085～0.125

1972—1976

–0.706

–1.257～–0.155

–0.731

–1.213～–0.248

–0.666

–1.351～0.020

1977—1981

–0.826

–1.442～–0.210

–0.847

–1.384～–0.310

–0.833

–1.612～–0.055

1982—1986

–0.928

–1.654～–0.201

–0.940

–1.566～–0.314

–0.997

–1.947～–0.047

1987—1991

–1.037

–1.992～–0.081

–1.024

–1.839～–0.209

–1.170

–2.424～0.085

1992—1996

–1.214

–2.658～0.231

–1.199

–2.466～0.068

–1.346

–3.105～0.414

1997—2001

–1.412

–3.655～0.831

–1.400

–3.388～0.589

–1.571

–4.263～1.121

2002—2006

–1.716

–6.247～2.816

–1.719

–5.738～2.300

–1.877

–7.347～3.594

项目	分类	总体居民			女性居民
年龄效应/岁	15～19	–3.609	–5.351～–1.867	–3.658	–5.235～–2.080	–3.428	–5.421～–1.434
	20～24	–3.039	–4.195～–1.882	–3.110	–4.166～–2.054	–2.843	–4.146～–1.541
	25～29	–2.495	–3.360～–1.630	–2.516	–3.288～–1.743	–2.414	–3.424～–1.404
	30～34	–1.590	–2.185～–0.996	–1.472	–1.984～–0.960	–1.853	–2.619～–1.087
	35～39	–0.866	–1.330～–0.402	–0.711	–1.114～–0.309	–1.271	–1.869～–0.674
	40～44	–0.338	–0.726～0.051	–0.213	–0.553～0.127	–0.676	–1.158～–0.195
	45～49	–0.032	–0.366～0.303	0.060	–0.234～0.354	–0.302	–0.711～0.106
	50～54	0.389	0.111～0.668	0.410	0.163～0.657	0.268	–0.064～0.601
	55～59	0.729	0.499～0.959	0.710	0.505～0.914	0.678	0.405～0.950
	60～64	0.949	0.761～1.137	0.893	0.725～1.061	0.964	0.743～1.185
	65～69	1.146	0.992～1.299	1.063	0.926～1.200	1.211	1.032～1.391
	70～74	1.387	1.257～1.517	1.268	1.152～1.384	1.509	1.356～1.663
	75～79	1.471	1.343～1.599	1.323	1.210～1.436	1.636	1.482～1.790
	80～84	1.509	1.364～1.654	1.381	1.254～1.508	1.686	1.508～1.865
	85～89	1.647	1.471～1.822	1.737	1.585～1.890	1.686	1.467～1.905
	90～94	1.556	1.340～1.771	1.751	1.565～1.938	1.651	1.383～1.919
	≥95	1.186	0.925～1.446	1.083	0.855～1.310	1.499	1.176～1.822
时期效应/年份	1992—1996	–0.451	–0.586～–0.316	–0.465	–0.584～–0.346	–0.384	–0.547～–0.222
	1997—2001	–0.243	–0.330～–0.156	–0.292	–0.369～–0.215	–0.188	–0.291～–0.084
	2002—2006	–0.048	–0.096～0.000	–0.095	–0.137～–0.052	–0.020	–0.075～0.034
	2007—2011	0.094	0.045～0.144	0.094	0.052～0.137	0.077	0.020～0.133
	2012—2016	0.223	0.136～0.309	0.280	0.204～0.356	0.150	0.046～0.253
	2017—2021	0.425	0.294～0.556	0.477	0.362～0.592	0.366	0.207～0.525
出生队列效应/年份	1897—1901	1.610	1.243～1.976	1.456	1.129～1.784	1.594	1.157～2.030
	1902—1906	1.415	1.098～1.731	1.339	1.059～1.619	1.411	1.031～1.791
	1907—1911	1.237	0.959～1.515	1.205	0.959～1.451	1.258	0.923～1.593
	1912—1916	1.067	0.819～1.315	1.119	0.901～1.338	1.083	0.784～1.382
	1917—1921	0.934	0.709～1.160	1.060	0.861～1.259	0.928	0.655～1.202
	1922—1926	0.839	0.625～1.053	0.916	0.728～1.105	0.857	0.597～1.117
	1927—1931	0.712	0.496～0.928	0.717	0.528～0.907	0.766	0.503～1.030
	1932—1936	0.587	0.358～0.817	0.602	0.400～0.804	0.648	0.366～0.929
	1937—1941	0.447	0.193～0.701	0.463	0.240～0.687	0.513	0.203～0.824
	1942—1946	0.293	0.007～0.579	0.297	0.045～0.548	0.373	0.023～0.723
	1947—1951	0.164	–0.159～0.487	0.164	–0.119～0.448	0.247	–0.148～0.643
	1952—1956	–0.009	–0.374～0.355	–0.011	–0.331～0.309	0.079	–0.368～0.526
	1957—1961	–0.172	–0.581～0.237	–0.179	–0.538～0.179	–0.088	–0.591～0.414
	1962—1966	–0.395	–0.853～0.063	–0.403	–0.804～–0.001	–0.320	–0.885～0.246
	1967—1971	–0.539	–1.051～–0.027	–0.545	–0.992～–0.098	–0.492	–1.127～0.144
	1972—1976	–0.729	–1.305～–0.154	–0.752	–1.253～–0.251	–0.688	–1.410～0.035
	1977—1981	–0.859	–1.505～–0.212	–0.878	–1.438～–0.318	–0.871	–1.697～–0.045
	1982—1986	–0.970	–1.739～–0.202	–0.982	–1.640～–0.323	–1.045	–2.062～–0.028
	1987—1991	–1.089	–2.098～–0.081	–1.075	–1.931～–0.218	–1.230	–2.565～0.106
	1992—1996	–1.275	–2.792～0.241	–1.259	–2.585～0.066	–1.415	–3.276～0.446
	1997—2001	–1.475	–3.777～0.826	–1.462	–3.493～0.569	–1.647	–4.434～1.141
	2002—2006	–1.790	–6.506～2.926	–1.794	–5.958～2.370	–1.964	–7.711～3.782

项目

分类

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

年龄效应/岁

15～19

–3.609

–5.351～–1.867

–3.658

–5.235～–2.080

–3.428

–5.421～–1.434

20～24

–3.039

–4.195～–1.882

–3.110

–4.166～–2.054

–2.843

–4.146～–1.541

25～29

–2.495

–3.360～–1.630

–2.516

–3.288～–1.743

–2.414

–3.424～–1.404

30～34

–1.590

–2.185～–0.996

–1.472

–1.984～–0.960

–1.853

–2.619～–1.087

35～39

–0.866

–1.330～–0.402

–0.711

–1.114～–0.309

–1.271

–1.869～–0.674

40～44

–0.338

–0.726～0.051

–0.213

–0.553～0.127

–0.676

–1.158～–0.195

45～49

–0.032

–0.366～0.303

0.060

–0.234～0.354

–0.302

–0.711～0.106

50～54

0.389

0.111～0.668

0.410

0.163～0.657

0.268

–0.064～0.601

55～59

0.729

0.499～0.959

0.710

0.505～0.914

0.678

0.405～0.950

60～64

0.949

0.761～1.137

0.893

0.725～1.061

0.964

0.743～1.185

65～69

1.146

0.992～1.299

1.063

0.926～1.200

1.211

1.032～1.391

70～74

1.387

1.257～1.517

1.268

1.152～1.384

1.509

1.356～1.663

75～79

1.471

1.343～1.599

1.323

1.210～1.436

1.636

1.482～1.790

80～84

1.509

1.364～1.654

1.381

1.254～1.508

1.686

1.508～1.865

85～89

1.647

1.471～1.822

1.737

1.585～1.890

1.686

1.467～1.905

90～94

1.556

1.340～1.771

1.751

1.565～1.938

1.651

1.383～1.919

≥95

1.186

0.925～1.446

1.083

0.855～1.310

1.499

1.176～1.822

时期效应/年份

1992—1996

–0.451

–0.586～–0.316

–0.465

–0.584～–0.346

–0.384

–0.547～–0.222

1997—2001

–0.243

–0.330～–0.156

–0.292

–0.369～–0.215

–0.188

–0.291～–0.084

2002—2006

–0.048

–0.096～0.000

–0.095

–0.137～–0.052

–0.020

–0.075～0.034

2007—2011

0.094

0.045～0.144

0.094

0.052～0.137

0.077

0.020～0.133

2012—2016

0.223

0.136～0.309

0.280

0.204～0.356

0.150

0.046～0.253

2017—2021

0.425

0.294～0.556

0.477

0.362～0.592

0.366

0.207～0.525

出生队列效应/年份

1897—1901

1.610

1.243～1.976

1.456

1.129～1.784

1.594

1.157～2.030

1902—1906

1.415

1.098～1.731

1.339

1.059～1.619

1.411

1.031～1.791

1907—1911

1.237

0.959～1.515

1.205

0.959～1.451

1.258

0.923～1.593

1912—1916

1.067

0.819～1.315

1.119

0.901～1.338

1.083

0.784～1.382

1917—1921

0.934

0.709～1.160

1.060

0.861～1.259

0.928

0.655～1.202

1922—1926

0.839

0.625～1.053

0.916

0.728～1.105

0.857

0.597～1.117

1927—1931

0.712

0.496～0.928

0.717

0.528～0.907

0.766

0.503～1.030

1932—1936

0.587

0.358～0.817

0.602

0.400～0.804

0.648

0.366～0.929

1937—1941

0.447

0.193～0.701

0.463

0.240～0.687

0.513

0.203～0.824

1942—1946

0.293

0.007～0.579

0.297

0.045～0.548

0.373

0.023～0.723

1947—1951

0.164

–0.159～0.487

0.164

–0.119～0.448

0.247

–0.148～0.643

1952—1956

–0.009

–0.374～0.355

–0.011

–0.331～0.309

0.079

–0.368～0.526

1957—1961

–0.172

–0.581～0.237

–0.179

–0.538～0.179

–0.088

–0.591～0.414

1962—1966

–0.395

–0.853～0.063

–0.403

–0.804～–0.001

–0.320

–0.885～0.246

1967—1971

–0.539

–1.051～–0.027

–0.545

–0.992～–0.098

–0.492

–1.127～0.144

1972—1976

–0.729

–1.305～–0.154

–0.752

–1.253～–0.251

–0.688

–1.410～0.035

1977—1981

–0.859

–1.505～–0.212

–0.878

–1.438～–0.318

–0.871

–1.697～–0.045

1982—1986

–0.970

–1.739～–0.202

–0.982

–1.640～–0.323

–1.045

–2.062～–0.028

1987—1991

–1.089

–2.098～–0.081

–1.075

–1.931～–0.218

–1.230

–2.565～0.106

1992—1996

–1.275

–2.792～0.241

–1.259

–2.585～0.066

–1.415

–3.276～0.446

1997—2001

–1.475

–3.777～0.826

–1.462

–3.493～0.569

–1.647

–4.434～1.141

2002—2006

–1.790

–6.506～2.926

–1.794

–5.958～2.370

–1.964

–7.711～3.782

项目	分类	总体居民			女性居民
年龄效应/岁	15～19	–3.609	–5.351～–1.867	–3.658	–5.235～–2.080	–3.428	–5.421～–1.434
	20～24	–3.039	–4.195～–1.882	–3.110	–4.166～–2.054	–2.843	–4.146～–1.541
	25～29	–2.495	–3.360～–1.630	–2.516	–3.288～–1.743	–2.414	–3.424～–1.404
	30～34	–1.590	–2.185～–0.996	–1.472	–1.984～–0.960	–1.853	–2.619～–1.087
	35～39	–0.866	–1.330～–0.402	–0.711	–1.114～–0.309	–1.271	–1.869～–0.674
	40～44	–0.338	–0.726～0.051	–0.213	–0.553～0.127	–0.676	–1.158～–0.195
	45～49	–0.032	–0.366～0.303	0.060	–0.234～0.354	–0.302	–0.711～0.106
	50～54	0.389	0.111～0.668	0.410	0.163～0.657	0.268	–0.064～0.601
	55～59	0.729	0.499～0.959	0.710	0.505～0.914	0.678	0.405～0.950
	60～64	0.949	0.761～1.137	0.893	0.725～1.061	0.964	0.743～1.185
	65～69	1.146	0.992～1.299	1.063	0.926～1.200	1.211	1.032～1.391
	70～74	1.387	1.257～1.517	1.268	1.152～1.384	1.509	1.356～1.663
	75～79	1.471	1.343～1.599	1.323	1.210～1.436	1.636	1.482～1.790
	80～84	1.509	1.364～1.654	1.381	1.254～1.508	1.686	1.508～1.865
	85～89	1.647	1.471～1.822	1.737	1.585～1.890	1.686	1.467～1.905
	90～94	1.556	1.340～1.771	1.751	1.565～1.938	1.651	1.383～1.919
	≥95	1.186	0.925～1.446	1.083	0.855～1.310	1.499	1.176～1.822
时期效应/年份	1992—1996	–0.451	–0.586～–0.316	–0.465	–0.584～–0.346	–0.384	–0.547～–0.222
	1997—2001	–0.243	–0.330～–0.156	–0.292	–0.369～–0.215	–0.188	–0.291～–0.084
	2002—2006	–0.048	–0.096～0.000	–0.095	–0.137～–0.052	–0.020	–0.075～0.034
	2007—2011	0.094	0.045～0.144	0.094	0.052～0.137	0.077	0.020～0.133
	2012—2016	0.223	0.136～0.309	0.280	0.204～0.356	0.150	0.046～0.253
	2017—2021	0.425	0.294～0.556	0.477	0.362～0.592	0.366	0.207～0.525
出生队列效应/年份	1897—1901	1.610	1.243～1.976	1.456	1.129～1.784	1.594	1.157～2.030
	1902—1906	1.415	1.098～1.731	1.339	1.059～1.619	1.411	1.031～1.791
	1907—1911	1.237	0.959～1.515	1.205	0.959～1.451	1.258	0.923～1.593
	1912—1916	1.067	0.819～1.315	1.119	0.901～1.338	1.083	0.784～1.382
	1917—1921	0.934	0.709～1.160	1.060	0.861～1.259	0.928	0.655～1.202
	1922—1926	0.839	0.625～1.053	0.916	0.728～1.105	0.857	0.597～1.117
	1927—1931	0.712	0.496～0.928	0.717	0.528～0.907	0.766	0.503～1.030
	1932—1936	0.587	0.358～0.817	0.602	0.400～0.804	0.648	0.366～0.929
	1937—1941	0.447	0.193～0.701	0.463	0.240～0.687	0.513	0.203～0.824
	1942—1946	0.293	0.007～0.579	0.297	0.045～0.548	0.373	0.023～0.723
	1947—1951	0.164	–0.159～0.487	0.164	–0.119～0.448	0.247	–0.148～0.643
	1952—1956	–0.009	–0.374～0.355	–0.011	–0.331～0.309	0.079	–0.368～0.526
	1957—1961	–0.172	–0.581～0.237	–0.179	–0.538～0.179	–0.088	–0.591～0.414
	1962—1966	–0.395	–0.853～0.063	–0.403	–0.804～–0.001	–0.320	–0.885～0.246
	1967—1971	–0.539	–1.051～–0.027	–0.545	–0.992～–0.098	–0.492	–1.127～0.144
	1972—1976	–0.729	–1.305～–0.154	–0.752	–1.253～–0.251	–0.688	–1.410～0.035
	1977—1981	–0.859	–1.505～–0.212	–0.878	–1.438～–0.318	–0.871	–1.697～–0.045
	1982—1986	–0.970	–1.739～–0.202	–0.982	–1.640～–0.323	–1.045	–2.062～–0.028
	1987—1991	–1.089	–2.098～–0.081	–1.075	–1.931～–0.218	–1.230	–2.565～0.106
	1992—1996	–1.275	–2.792～0.241	–1.259	–2.585～0.066	–1.415	–3.276～0.446
	1997—2001	–1.475	–3.777～0.826	–1.462	–3.493～0.569	–1.647	–4.434～1.141
	2002—2006	–1.790	–6.506～2.926	–1.794	–5.958～2.370	–1.964	–7.711～3.782

项目

分类

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

年龄效应/岁

15～19

–3.609

–5.351～–1.867

–3.658

–5.235～–2.080

–3.428

–5.421～–1.434

20～24

–3.039

–4.195～–1.882

–3.110

–4.166～–2.054

–2.843

–4.146～–1.541

25～29

–2.495

–3.360～–1.630

–2.516

–3.288～–1.743

–2.414

–3.424～–1.404

30～34

–1.590

–2.185～–0.996

–1.472

–1.984～–0.960

–1.853

–2.619～–1.087

35～39

–0.866

–1.330～–0.402

–0.711

–1.114～–0.309

–1.271

–1.869～–0.674

40～44

–0.338

–0.726～0.051

–0.213

–0.553～0.127

–0.676

–1.158～–0.195

45～49

–0.032

–0.366～0.303

0.060

–0.234～0.354

–0.302

–0.711～0.106

50～54

0.389

0.111～0.668

0.410

0.163～0.657

0.268

–0.064～0.601

55～59

0.729

0.499～0.959

0.710

0.505～0.914

0.678

0.405～0.950

60～64

0.949

0.761～1.137

0.893

0.725～1.061

0.964

0.743～1.185

65～69

1.146

0.992～1.299

1.063

0.926～1.200

1.211

1.032～1.391

70～74

1.387

1.257～1.517

1.268

1.152～1.384

1.509

1.356～1.663

75～79

1.471

1.343～1.599

1.323

1.210～1.436

1.636

1.482～1.790

80～84

1.509

1.364～1.654

1.381

1.254～1.508

1.686

1.508～1.865

85～89

1.647

1.471～1.822

1.737

1.585～1.890

1.686

1.467～1.905

90～94

1.556

1.340～1.771

1.751

1.565～1.938

1.651

1.383～1.919

≥95

1.186

0.925～1.446

1.083

0.855～1.310

1.499

1.176～1.822

时期效应/年份

1992—1996

–0.451

–0.586～–0.316

–0.465

–0.584～–0.346

–0.384

–0.547～–0.222

1997—2001

–0.243

–0.330～–0.156

–0.292

–0.369～–0.215

–0.188

–0.291～–0.084

2002—2006

–0.048

–0.096～0.000

–0.095

–0.137～–0.052

–0.020

–0.075～0.034

2007—2011

0.094

0.045～0.144

0.094

0.052～0.137

0.077

0.020～0.133

2012—2016

0.223

0.136～0.309

0.280

0.204～0.356

0.150

0.046～0.253

2017—2021

0.425

0.294～0.556

0.477

0.362～0.592

0.366

0.207～0.525

出生队列效应/年份

1897—1901

1.610

1.243～1.976

1.456

1.129～1.784

1.594

1.157～2.030

1902—1906

1.415

1.098～1.731

1.339

1.059～1.619

1.411

1.031～1.791

1907—1911

1.237

0.959～1.515

1.205

0.959～1.451

1.258

0.923～1.593

1912—1916

1.067

0.819～1.315

1.119

0.901～1.338

1.083

0.784～1.382

1917—1921

0.934

0.709～1.160

1.060

0.861～1.259

0.928

0.655～1.202

1922—1926

0.839

0.625～1.053

0.916

0.728～1.105

0.857

0.597～1.117

1927—1931

0.712

0.496～0.928

0.717

0.528～0.907

0.766

0.503～1.030

1932—1936

0.587

0.358～0.817

0.602

0.400～0.804

0.648

0.366～0.929

1937—1941

0.447

0.193～0.701

0.463

0.240～0.687

0.513

0.203～0.824

1942—1946

0.293

0.007～0.579

0.297

0.045～0.548

0.373

0.023～0.723

1947—1951

0.164

–0.159～0.487

0.164

–0.119～0.448

0.247

–0.148～0.643

1952—1956

–0.009

–0.374～0.355

–0.011

–0.331～0.309

0.079

–0.368～0.526

1957—1961

–0.172

–0.581～0.237

–0.179

–0.538～0.179

–0.088

–0.591～0.414

1962—1966

–0.395

–0.853～0.063

–0.403

–0.804～–0.001

–0.320

–0.885～0.246

1967—1971

–0.539

–1.051～–0.027

–0.545

–0.992～–0.098

–0.492

–1.127～0.144

1972—1976

–0.729

–1.305～–0.154

–0.752

–1.253～–0.251

–0.688

–1.410～0.035

1977—1981

–0.859

–1.505～–0.212

–0.878

–1.438～–0.318

–0.871

–1.697～–0.045

1982—1986

–0.970

–1.739～–0.202

–0.982

–1.640～–0.323

–1.045

–2.062～–0.028

1987—1991

–1.089

–2.098～–0.081

–1.075

–1.931～–0.218

–1.230

–2.565～0.106

1992—1996

–1.275

–2.792～0.241

–1.259

–2.585～0.066

–1.415

–3.276～0.446

1997—2001

–1.475

–3.777～0.826

–1.462

–3.493～0.569

–1.647

–4.434～1.141

2002—2006

–1.790

–6.506～2.926

–1.794

–5.958～2.370

–1.964

–7.711～3.782

项目	分类	总体居民			女性居民
年龄效应/岁	15～19	–3.015	–3.220～–2.810	–3.069	–3.255～–2.883	–2.834	–3.069～–2.600
	20～24	–2.472	–2.612～–2.331	–2.546	–2.675～–2.418	–2.276	–2.435～–2.118
	25～29	–1.962	–2.070～–1.854	–1.985	–2.082～–1.888	–1.880	–2.007～–1.754
	30～34	–1.099	–1.175～–1.023	–0.982	–1.048～–0.917	–1.360	–1.459～–1.262
	35～39	–0.422	–0.482～–0.362	–0.268	–0.319～–0.216	–0.825	–0.903～–0.747
	40～44	0.053	0.002～0.103	0.177	0.133～0.222	–0.283	–0.347～–0.220
	45～49	0.295	0.250～0.339	0.387	0.348～0.426	0.025	–0.030～0.080
	50～54	0.641	0.603～0.678	0.662	0.629～0.695	0.521	0.476～0.566
	55～59	0.893	0.861～0.925	0.875	0.847～0.903	0.842	0.804～0.879
	60～64	1.008	0.981～1.035	0.953	0.929～0.977	1.022	0.990～1.053
	65～69	1.075	1.052～1.098	0.993	0.972～1.013	1.139	1.112～1.166
	70～74	1.166	1.146～1.186	1.049	1.030～1.067	1.286	1.263～1.310
	75～79	1.071	1.051～1.091	0.929	0.911～0.947	1.233	1.210～1.256
	80～84	0.912	0.890～0.934	0.788	0.769～0.808	1.087	1.061～1.113
	85～89	0.865	0.840～0.891	0.957	0.935～0.978	0.905	0.874～0.936
	90～94	0.684	0.654～0.714	0.881	0.856～0.907	0.778	0.741～0.815
	≥95	0.307	0.271～0.343	0.200	0.168～0.232	0.622	0.578～0.666
时期效应/年份	1992—1996	–0.323	–0.342～–0.304	–0.358	–0.375～–0.341	–0.252	–0.274～–0.229
	1997—2001	–0.180	–0.194～–0.166	–0.229	–0.241～–0.216	–0.121	–0.137～–0.104
	2002—2006	–0.042	–0.053～–0.031	–0.073	–0.082～–0.063	–0.018	–0.030～–0.005
	2007—2011	0.067	0.056～0.078	0.078	0.068～0.088	0.043	0.030～0.055
	2012—2016	0.162	0.148～0.176	0.218	0.206～0.230	0.087	0.070～0.103
	2017—2021	0.316	0.298～0.334	0.364	0.348～0.379	0.260	0.239～0.282
出生队列效应/年份	1897—1901	1.135	1.076～1.194	1.000	0.945～1.055	1.114	1.048～1.181
	1902—1906	0.990	0.944～1.036	0.925	0.884～0.966	0.984	0.930～1.038
	1907—1911	0.863	0.824～0.902	0.835	0.800～0.869	0.884	0.838～0.930
	1912—1916	0.743	0.709～0.778	0.793	0.763～0.824	0.757	0.716～0.797
	1917—1921	0.654	0.623～0.685	0.765	0.738～0.792	0.652	0.615～0.688
	1922—1926	0.598	0.569～0.626	0.665	0.640～0.690	0.619	0.585～0.653
	1927—1931	0.523	0.494～0.552	0.532	0.507～0.558	0.576	0.542～0.611
	1932—1936	0.443	0.412～0.474	0.456	0.429～0.483	0.506	0.469～0.543
	1937—1941	0.345	0.312～0.379	0.354	0.325～0.384	0.416	0.376～0.457
	1942—1946	0.237	0.199～0.274	0.237	0.204～0.270	0.318	0.272～0.363
	1947—1951	0.148	0.106～0.190	0.146	0.109～0.183	0.233	0.181～0.284
	1952—1956	0.015	–0.032～0.063	0.011	–0.030～0.053	0.103	0.046～0.161
	1957—1961	–0.108	–0.160～–0.055	–0.117	–0.163～–0.071	–0.026	–0.091～0.039
	1962—1966	–0.277	–0.336～–0.218	–0.287	–0.338～–0.235	–0.203	–0.276～–0.130
	1967—1971	–0.383	–0.448～–0.317	–0.391	–0.448～–0.334	–0.338	–0.420～–0.256
	1972—1976	–0.533	–0.607～–0.459	–0.557	–0.621～–0.493	–0.495	–0.588～–0.401
	1977—1981	–0.619	–0.702～–0.537	–0.639	–0.710～–0.568	–0.632	–0.738～–0.526
	1982—1986	–0.685	–0.783～–0.587	–0.695	–0.779～–0.612	–0.759	–0.889～–0.629
	1987—1991	–0.765	–0.893～–0.638	–0.748	–0.856～–0.640	–0.904	–1.072～–0.736
	1992—1996	–0.915	–1.102～–0.727	–0.897	–1.061～–0.733	–1.052	–1.281～–0.822
	1997—2001	–1.071	–1.348～–0.795	–1.053	–1.297～–0.809	–1.241	–1.576～–0.906
	2002—2006	–1.338	–1.891～–0.785	–1.334	–1.823～–0.846	–1.513	–2.187～–0.839

项目

分类

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

年龄效应/岁

15～19

–3.015

–3.220～–2.810

–3.069

–3.255～–2.883

–2.834

–3.069～–2.600

20～24

–2.472

–2.612～–2.331

–2.546

–2.675～–2.418

–2.276

–2.435～–2.118

25～29

–1.962

–2.070～–1.854

–1.985

–2.082～–1.888

–1.880

–2.007～–1.754

30～34

–1.099

–1.175～–1.023

–0.982

–1.048～–0.917

–1.360

–1.459～–1.262

35～39

–0.422

–0.482～–0.362

–0.268

–0.319～–0.216

–0.825

–0.903～–0.747

40～44

0.053

0.002～0.103

0.177

0.133～0.222

–0.283

–0.347～–0.220

45～49

0.295

0.250～0.339

0.387

0.348～0.426

0.025

–0.030～0.080

50～54

0.641

0.603～0.678

0.662

0.629～0.695

0.521

0.476～0.566

55～59

0.893

0.861～0.925

0.875

0.847～0.903

0.842

0.804～0.879

60～64

1.008

0.981～1.035

0.953

0.929～0.977

1.022

0.990～1.053

65～69

1.075

1.052～1.098

0.993

0.972～1.013

1.139

1.112～1.166

70～74

1.166

1.146～1.186

1.049

1.030～1.067

1.286

1.263～1.310

75～79

1.071

1.051～1.091

0.929

0.911～0.947

1.233

1.210～1.256

80～84

0.912

0.890～0.934

0.788

0.769～0.808

1.087

1.061～1.113

85～89

0.865

0.840～0.891

0.957

0.935～0.978

0.905

0.874～0.936

90～94

0.684

0.654～0.714

0.881

0.856～0.907

0.778

0.741～0.815

≥95

0.307

0.271～0.343

0.200

0.168～0.232

0.622

0.578～0.666

时期效应/年份

1992—1996

–0.323

–0.342～–0.304

–0.358

–0.375～–0.341

–0.252

–0.274～–0.229

1997—2001

–0.180

–0.194～–0.166

–0.229

–0.241～–0.216

–0.121

–0.137～–0.104

2002—2006

–0.042

–0.053～–0.031

–0.073

–0.082～–0.063

–0.018

–0.030～–0.005

2007—2011

0.067

0.056～0.078

0.078

0.068～0.088

0.043

0.030～0.055

2012—2016

0.162

0.148～0.176

0.218

0.206～0.230

0.087

0.070～0.103

2017—2021

0.316

0.298～0.334

0.364

0.348～0.379

0.260

0.239～0.282

出生队列效应/年份

1897—1901

1.135

1.076～1.194

1.000

0.945～1.055

1.114

1.048～1.181

1902—1906

0.990

0.944～1.036

0.925

0.884～0.966

0.984

0.930～1.038

1907—1911

0.863

0.824～0.902

0.835

0.800～0.869

0.884

0.838～0.930

1912—1916

0.743

0.709～0.778

0.793

0.763～0.824

0.757

0.716～0.797

1917—1921

0.654

0.623～0.685

0.765

0.738～0.792

0.652

0.615～0.688

1922—1926

0.598

0.569～0.626

0.665

0.640～0.690

0.619

0.585～0.653

1927—1931

0.523

0.494～0.552

0.532

0.507～0.558

0.576

0.542～0.611

1932—1936

0.443

0.412～0.474

0.456

0.429～0.483

0.506

0.469～0.543

1937—1941

0.345

0.312～0.379

0.354

0.325～0.384

0.416

0.376～0.457

1942—1946

0.237

0.199～0.274

0.237

0.204～0.270

0.318

0.272～0.363

1947—1951

0.148

0.106～0.190

0.146

0.109～0.183

0.233

0.181～0.284

1952—1956

0.015

–0.032～0.063

0.011

–0.030～0.053

0.103

0.046～0.161

1957—1961

–0.108

–0.160～–0.055

–0.117

–0.163～–0.071

–0.026

–0.091～0.039

1962—1966

–0.277

–0.336～–0.218

–0.287

–0.338～–0.235

–0.203

–0.276～–0.130

1967—1971

–0.383

–0.448～–0.317

–0.391

–0.448～–0.334

–0.338

–0.420～–0.256

1972—1976

–0.533

–0.607～–0.459

–0.557

–0.621～–0.493

–0.495

–0.588～–0.401

1977—1981

–0.619

–0.702～–0.537

–0.639

–0.710～–0.568

–0.632

–0.738～–0.526

1982—1986

–0.685

–0.783～–0.587

–0.695

–0.779～–0.612

–0.759

–0.889～–0.629

1987—1991

–0.765

–0.893～–0.638

–0.748

–0.856～–0.640

–0.904

–1.072～–0.736

1992—1996

–0.915

–1.102～–0.727

–0.897

–1.061～–0.733

–1.052

–1.281～–0.822

1997—2001

–1.071

–1.348～–0.795

–1.053

–1.297～–0.809

–1.241

–1.576～–0.906

2002—2006

–1.338

–1.891～–0.785

–1.334

–1.823～–0.846

–1.513

–2.187～–0.839

项目	分类	总体居民			女性居民
年龄效应/岁	15～19	–3.015	–3.220～–2.810	–3.069	–3.255～–2.883	–2.834	–3.069～–2.600
	20～24	–2.472	–2.612～–2.331	–2.546	–2.675～–2.418	–2.276	–2.435～–2.118
	25～29	–1.962	–2.070～–1.854	–1.985	–2.082～–1.888	–1.880	–2.007～–1.754
	30～34	–1.099	–1.175～–1.023	–0.982	–1.048～–0.917	–1.360	–1.459～–1.262
	35～39	–0.422	–0.482～–0.362	–0.268	–0.319～–0.216	–0.825	–0.903～–0.747
	40～44	0.053	0.002～0.103	0.177	0.133～0.222	–0.283	–0.347～–0.220
	45～49	0.295	0.250～0.339	0.387	0.348～0.426	0.025	–0.030～0.080
	50～54	0.641	0.603～0.678	0.662	0.629～0.695	0.521	0.476～0.566
	55～59	0.893	0.861～0.925	0.875	0.847～0.903	0.842	0.804～0.879
	60～64	1.008	0.981～1.035	0.953	0.929～0.977	1.022	0.990～1.053
	65～69	1.075	1.052～1.098	0.993	0.972～1.013	1.139	1.112～1.166
	70～74	1.166	1.146～1.186	1.049	1.030～1.067	1.286	1.263～1.310
	75～79	1.071	1.051～1.091	0.929	0.911～0.947	1.233	1.210～1.256
	80～84	0.912	0.890～0.934	0.788	0.769～0.808	1.087	1.061～1.113
	85～89	0.865	0.840～0.891	0.957	0.935～0.978	0.905	0.874～0.936
	90～94	0.684	0.654～0.714	0.881	0.856～0.907	0.778	0.741～0.815
	≥95	0.307	0.271～0.343	0.200	0.168～0.232	0.622	0.578～0.666
时期效应/年份	1992—1996	–0.323	–0.342～–0.304	–0.358	–0.375～–0.341	–0.252	–0.274～–0.229
	1997—2001	–0.180	–0.194～–0.166	–0.229	–0.241～–0.216	–0.121	–0.137～–0.104
	2002—2006	–0.042	–0.053～–0.031	–0.073	–0.082～–0.063	–0.018	–0.030～–0.005
	2007—2011	0.067	0.056～0.078	0.078	0.068～0.088	0.043	0.030～0.055
	2012—2016	0.162	0.148～0.176	0.218	0.206～0.230	0.087	0.070～0.103
	2017—2021	0.316	0.298～0.334	0.364	0.348～0.379	0.260	0.239～0.282
出生队列效应/年份	1897—1901	1.135	1.076～1.194	1.000	0.945～1.055	1.114	1.048～1.181
	1902—1906	0.990	0.944～1.036	0.925	0.884～0.966	0.984	0.930～1.038
	1907—1911	0.863	0.824～0.902	0.835	0.800～0.869	0.884	0.838～0.930
	1912—1916	0.743	0.709～0.778	0.793	0.763～0.824	0.757	0.716～0.797
	1917—1921	0.654	0.623～0.685	0.765	0.738～0.792	0.652	0.615～0.688
	1922—1926	0.598	0.569～0.626	0.665	0.640～0.690	0.619	0.585～0.653
	1927—1931	0.523	0.494～0.552	0.532	0.507～0.558	0.576	0.542～0.611
	1932—1936	0.443	0.412～0.474	0.456	0.429～0.483	0.506	0.469～0.543
	1937—1941	0.345	0.312～0.379	0.354	0.325～0.384	0.416	0.376～0.457
	1942—1946	0.237	0.199～0.274	0.237	0.204～0.270	0.318	0.272～0.363
	1947—1951	0.148	0.106～0.190	0.146	0.109～0.183	0.233	0.181～0.284
	1952—1956	0.015	–0.032～0.063	0.011	–0.030～0.053	0.103	0.046～0.161
	1957—1961	–0.108	–0.160～–0.055	–0.117	–0.163～–0.071	–0.026	–0.091～0.039
	1962—1966	–0.277	–0.336～–0.218	–0.287	–0.338～–0.235	–0.203	–0.276～–0.130
	1967—1971	–0.383	–0.448～–0.317	–0.391	–0.448～–0.334	–0.338	–0.420～–0.256
	1972—1976	–0.533	–0.607～–0.459	–0.557	–0.621～–0.493	–0.495	–0.588～–0.401
	1977—1981	–0.619	–0.702～–0.537	–0.639	–0.710～–0.568	–0.632	–0.738～–0.526
	1982—1986	–0.685	–0.783～–0.587	–0.695	–0.779～–0.612	–0.759	–0.889～–0.629
	1987—1991	–0.765	–0.893～–0.638	–0.748	–0.856～–0.640	–0.904	–1.072～–0.736
	1992—1996	–0.915	–1.102～–0.727	–0.897	–1.061～–0.733	–1.052	–1.281～–0.822
	1997—2001	–1.071	–1.348～–0.795	–1.053	–1.297～–0.809	–1.241	–1.576～–0.906
	2002—2006	–1.338	–1.891～–0.785	–1.334	–1.823～–0.846	–1.513	–2.187～–0.839

项目

分类

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

年龄效应/岁

15～19

–3.015

–3.220～–2.810

–3.069

–3.255～–2.883

–2.834

–3.069～–2.600

20～24

–2.472

–2.612～–2.331

–2.546

–2.675～–2.418

–2.276

–2.435～–2.118

25～29

–1.962

–2.070～–1.854

–1.985

–2.082～–1.888

–1.880

–2.007～–1.754

30～34

–1.099

–1.175～–1.023

–0.982

–1.048～–0.917

–1.360

–1.459～–1.262

35～39

–0.422

–0.482～–0.362

–0.268

–0.319～–0.216

–0.825

–0.903～–0.747

40～44

0.053

0.002～0.103

0.177

0.133～0.222

–0.283

–0.347～–0.220

45～49

0.295

0.250～0.339

0.387

0.348～0.426

0.025

–0.030～0.080

50～54

0.641

0.603～0.678

0.662

0.629～0.695

0.521

0.476～0.566

55～59

0.893

0.861～0.925

0.875

0.847～0.903

0.842

0.804～0.879

60～64

1.008

0.981～1.035

0.953

0.929～0.977

1.022

0.990～1.053

65～69

1.075

1.052～1.098

0.993

0.972～1.013

1.139

1.112～1.166

70～74

1.166

1.146～1.186

1.049

1.030～1.067

1.286

1.263～1.310

75～79

1.071

1.051～1.091

0.929

0.911～0.947

1.233

1.210～1.256

80～84

0.912

0.890～0.934

0.788

0.769～0.808

1.087

1.061～1.113

85～89

0.865

0.840～0.891

0.957

0.935～0.978

0.905

0.874～0.936

90～94

0.684

0.654～0.714

0.881

0.856～0.907

0.778

0.741～0.815

≥95

0.307

0.271～0.343

0.200

0.168～0.232

0.622

0.578～0.666

时期效应/年份

1992—1996

–0.323

–0.342～–0.304

–0.358

–0.375～–0.341

–0.252

–0.274～–0.229

1997—2001

–0.180

–0.194～–0.166

–0.229

–0.241～–0.216

–0.121

–0.137～–0.104

2002—2006

–0.042

–0.053～–0.031

–0.073

–0.082～–0.063

–0.018

–0.030～–0.005

2007—2011

0.067

0.056～0.078

0.078

0.068～0.088

0.043

0.030～0.055

2012—2016

0.162

0.148～0.176

0.218

0.206～0.230

0.087

0.070～0.103

2017—2021

0.316

0.298～0.334

0.364

0.348～0.379

0.260

0.239～0.282

出生队列效应/年份

1897—1901

1.135

1.076～1.194

1.000

0.945～1.055

1.114

1.048～1.181

1902—1906

0.990

0.944～1.036

0.925

0.884～0.966

0.984

0.930～1.038

1907—1911

0.863

0.824～0.902

0.835

0.800～0.869

0.884

0.838～0.930

1912—1916

0.743

0.709～0.778

0.793

0.763～0.824

0.757

0.716～0.797

1917—1921

0.654

0.623～0.685

0.765

0.738～0.792

0.652

0.615～0.688

1922—1926

0.598

0.569～0.626

0.665

0.640～0.690

0.619

0.585～0.653

1927—1931

0.523

0.494～0.552

0.532

0.507～0.558

0.576

0.542～0.611

1932—1936

0.443

0.412～0.474

0.456

0.429～0.483

0.506

0.469～0.543

1937—1941

0.345

0.312～0.379

0.354

0.325～0.384

0.416

0.376～0.457

1942—1946

0.237

0.199～0.274

0.237

0.204～0.270

0.318

0.272～0.363

1947—1951

0.148

0.106～0.190

0.146

0.109～0.183

0.233

0.181～0.284

1952—1956

0.015

–0.032～0.063

0.011

–0.030～0.053

0.103

0.046～0.161

1957—1961

–0.108

–0.160～–0.055

–0.117

–0.163～–0.071

–0.026

–0.091～0.039

1962—1966

–0.277

–0.336～–0.218

–0.287

–0.338～–0.235

–0.203

–0.276～–0.130

1967—1971

–0.383

–0.448～–0.317

–0.391

–0.448～–0.334

–0.338

–0.420～–0.256

1972—1976

–0.533

–0.607～–0.459

–0.557

–0.621～–0.493

–0.495

–0.588～–0.401

1977—1981

–0.619

–0.702～–0.537

–0.639

–0.710～–0.568

–0.632

–0.738～–0.526

1982—1986

–0.685

–0.783～–0.587

–0.695

–0.779～–0.612

–0.759

–0.889～–0.629

1987—1991

–0.765

–0.893～–0.638

–0.748

–0.856～–0.640

–0.904

–1.072～–0.736

1992—1996

–0.915

–1.102～–0.727

–0.897

–1.061～–0.733

–1.052

–1.281～–0.822

1997—2001

–1.071

–1.348～–0.795

–1.053

–1.297～–0.809

–1.241

–1.576～–0.906

2002—2006

–1.338

–1.891～–0.785

–1.334

–1.823～–0.846

–1.513

–2.187～–0.839

1990—2021年中国居民胰腺癌疾病负担趋势年龄–时期–队列分析

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刘沁娴 , 李嘉怡 , 宁祖乐 , 凌永睿 , 杨萌 , 杜进林 ^*^,^*

中国公共卫生 | 调查报告与分析 2025,41(5): 606-613

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中国公共卫生 |调查报告与分析 2025 , 41 (5) : 606 -613

1990—2021年中国居民胰腺癌疾病负担趋势年龄–时期–队列分析

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刘沁娴, 李嘉怡, 宁祖乐, 凌永睿, 杨萌, 杜进林^*^,^*

作者信息

广东医科大学公共卫生学院，东莞 523808

通讯作者:

杜进林，E-mail：dujinlin@gdmu.edu.cn

作者简介:

刘沁娴（2000—），硕士在读，研究方向：疾病预防与控制

Age-period-cohort analysis of the pancreatic cancer burden among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021

Qinxian LIU, Jiayi LI, Zule NING, Yongrui LING, Meng YANG, Jinlin DU

Affiliations

School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan Guangdong 523808, China

Corresponding Author:

DU Jinlin, E-mail: dujinlin@gdmu.edu.cn

出版时间: 2025-05-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1145196

文章导航

摘要

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目的

分析1990—2021年中国居民胰腺癌疾病负担趋势，为我国胰腺癌防治工作提供参考依据。

方法

收集2021年全球疾病负担（GBD 2021）数据库中1990—2021年中国居民胰腺癌疾病负担的相关数据，提取标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化伤残调整寿命年（DALYs）率等指标进行描述性分析，采用Joinpoint回归模型分析胰腺癌疾病负担的变化趋势，并应用年龄–时期–队列（APC）模型分析胰腺癌疾病负担的年龄、时期、出生队列效应。

结果

中国总体、男性和女性居民1990—2021年胰腺癌标化发病率分别从1990年的4.54/10万、5.55/10万和3.64/10万上升至2021年的5.64/10万、7.29/10万和4.18/10万，平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）值分别为0.72%、0.89%和0.48%，总体、男性和女性居民上升趋势均有统计学意义（均P<0.001）；胰腺癌标化死亡率分别从1990年的4.83/10万、5.91/10万和3.90/10万上升至2021年的5.72/10万、7.37/10万和4.29/10万，AAPC值分别为0.56%、0.55%和0.33%，总体、男性和女性居民上升趋势均有统计学意义（均P<0.001）；胰腺癌标化DALYs率分别从1990年的123.16/10万、151.33/10万和95.37/10万上升至2021年的137.23/10万、179.36/10万和96.89/10万，AAPC值分别为0.36%、0.55%和0.07%，总体和男性居民上升趋势均有统计学意义（均P<0.001）。男性和女性居民胰腺癌发病风险均随年龄的增长呈上升趋势，年龄效应系数均在15～19岁为最低（分别为–3.638和–3.406），男性居民在85～89岁为最高（1.623），女性居民在80～84岁为最高（1.582）；胰腺癌发病风险随着时期的推移而上升，男性和女性居民的时期效应系数分别由1992—1996年的–0.477和–0.388上升至2017—2021年的0.488和0.382；胰腺癌发病风险随着出生年份的推移呈下降趋势，男性和女性居民的最低出生队列效应系数均在2002—2006年，分别为–1.719和–1.877，最高出生队列效应系数分别为1897—1901年的1.374和1.504。男性和女性居民胰腺癌死亡风险均随着年龄的增长大体呈上升趋势，年龄效应系数均在15～19岁为最低（分别为–3.658和–3.428），男性居民在90～94岁为最高（1.751），女性居民在80～84岁和85～89岁均为最高（均1.686）；胰腺癌死亡风险随着时期的推移而上升，男性和女性居民的时期效应系数分别由1992—1996年的–0.465和–0.384上升至2017—2021年的0.477和0.366；胰腺癌死亡风险随着出生年份的推移呈下降趋势，男性和女性居民的最低出生队列效应系数均在2002—2006年，分别为–1.794和–1.964，最高出生队列效应系数分别为1897—1901年的1.456和1.594。男性和女性居民胰腺癌疾病负担风险均随年龄增长大体呈上升趋势，年龄效应系数均在15～19岁为最低（分别为–3.069和–2.834），男性和女性居民均在70～74岁为最高（分别为1.049和1.286）；随着时期的推移而上升，男性和女性居民的时期效应系数分别由1992—1996年的–0.358和–0.252上升至2017—2021年的0.364和0.260；胰腺癌疾病负担风险随着出生年份的推移呈下降趋势，男性和女性居民的最低出生队列效应系数均在2002—2006年，分别为–1.334和–1.513，最高出生队列效应系数均在1897—1901年，分别为1.000和1.114。

结论

1990—2021年中国居民胰腺癌的标化发病率、标化死亡率和男性居民标化DALYs率均呈上升趋势，其胰腺癌疾病负担风险随年龄增长和时期推移而升高，随队列延伸而降低。

关键词

胰腺癌 / 疾病负担 / 趋势 / 年龄–时期–队列（APC）模型 / 中国居民

Abstract

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Objective

To analyze the trend in the burden of pancreatic cancer among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021, providing reference data for the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer in China.

Methods

Data related to the burden of pancreatic cancer among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) database. Standardized incidence rates, standardized mortality rates, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted for descriptive analysis. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze trends in the burden of pancreatic cancer, and the age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to assess the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the burden of pancreatic cancer.

Results

The age-standardized incidence rate of pancreatic cancer in China′s overall, male, and female populations increased from 4.54/100 000, 5.55/100 000, and 3.64/100 000 in 1990 to 5.64/100 000, 7.29/100 000, and 4.18/100 000 in 2021, respectively. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were 0.72%, 0.89%, and 0.48%, respectively, with statistically significant increasing trends for the overall, male, and female populations (all P < 0.001). The age-standardized mortality rates increased from 4.83/100 000, 5.91/100 000, and 3.90/100 000 in 1990 to 5.72/100 000, 7.37/100 000, and 4.29/100 000 in 2021, respectively, with AAPCs of 0.56%, 0.55%, and 0.33%, respectively. Statistically significant increasing trends were observed for the overall, male, and female populations (all P < 0.001). The age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates increased from 123.16/100 000, 151.33/100 000, and 95.37/100 000 in 1990 to 137.23/100 000, 179.36/100 000, and 96.89/100 000 in 2021, respectively, with AAPCs of 0.36%, 0.55%, and 0.07%, respectively. Statistically significant increasing trends were observed for the overall and male populations (all P < 0.001). The risk of pancreatic cancer incidence increased with age for both males and females. The age effect coefficients were lowest for the 15 - 19 age group (–3.638 and –3.406, respectively), highest for males in the 85 - 89 age group (1.623), and highest for females in the 80 - 84 age group (1.582). The risk of pancreatic cancer incidence increased over time, with period effect coefficients increasing from –0.477 and –0.388 in 1992 - 1996 to 0.488 and 0.382 in 2017 - 2021 for males and females, respectively. The risk of pancreatic cancer incidence decreased with birth cohort, with the lowest cohort effect coefficients observed in 2002 - 2006 (–1.719 and –1.877 for males and females, respectively) and the highest in 1897 - 1901 (1.374 and 1.504, respectively). The risk of pancreatic cancer mortality generally increased with age for both males and females. The age effect coefficients were lowest for the 15 - 19 age group (–3.658 and –3.428, respectively), highest for males in the 90 - 94 age group (1.751), and highest for females in both the 80 - 84 and 85 - 89 age groups (1.686 for both). The risk of pancreatic cancer mortality increased over time, with period effect coefficients increasing from –0.465 and –0.384 in 1992 - 1996 to 0.477 and 0.366 in 2017 - 2021 for males and females, respectively. The risk of pancreatic cancer mortality decreased with birth cohort, with the lowest cohort effect coefficients in 2002 - 2006 (–1.794 and –1.964 for males and females, respectively) and the highest in 1897 - 1901 (1.456 and 1.594, respectively). The risk of pancreatic cancer burden generally increased with age for both males and females. The age effect coefficients were lowest for the 15 - 19 age group (–3.069 and –2.834, respectively) and highest for the 70 - 74 age group (1.049 and 1.286 for males and females, respectively). The risk increased over time, with period effect coefficients increasing from –0.358 and –0.252 in 1992 - 1996 to 0.364 and 0.260 in 2017 - 2021 for males and females, respectively. The risk of pancreatic cancer burden decreased with birth cohort, with the lowest cohort effect coefficients in 2002 - 2006 (–1.334 and –1.513 for males and females, respectively) and the highest in 1897 - 1901 (1.000 and 1.114, respectively).

Conclusion

From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of pancreatic cancer in the Chinese population, as well as the age-standardized DALY rate in males, showed an increasing trend. The risk of pancreatic cancer burden increased with age and period but decreased with birth cohort.

Key words

pancreatic cancer / disease burden / trend / Age-period-cohort (APC) model / Chinese residents

引用本文

刘沁娴, 李嘉怡, 宁祖乐, 凌永睿, 杨萌, 杜进林. 1990—2021年中国居民胰腺癌疾病负担趋势年龄–时期–队列分析. 中国公共卫生, 2025 , 41 (5) : 606 -613 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1145196

Qinxian LIU, Jiayi LI, Zule NING, Yongrui LING, Meng YANG, Jinlin DU. Age-period-cohort analysis of the pancreatic cancer burden among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2025 , 41 (5) : 606 -613 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1145196

正文

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胰腺癌是死亡率极高的恶性肿瘤，由于大部分患者在早期无明显症状，早诊困难，因此患病晚期才被发现，从而导致患者面临着较低的生存率和有限的治疗选择^[1]。近年来，中国居民的胰腺癌发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势^[2]，2019年我国已成为全球胰腺癌发病率、死亡率和伤残调整寿命年（disability adjusted life years, DALYs）较高的国家^[3]，预计到2030年胰腺癌的发病和死亡人数将分别增至21.879万和22.297万^[4]，这将对我国居民的生命健康构成重大威胁。为分析1990—2021年中国居民胰腺癌疾病负担趋势，为我国胰腺癌防治工作提供参考依据，本研究收集2021年全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease Study, GBD 2021）数据库中1990—2021年中国居民胰腺癌疾病负担的相关数据，提取标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率等指标进行描述性分析，采用Joinpoint回归模型分析胰腺癌疾病负担的变化趋势，并应用年龄–时期–队列（age-period-cohort, APC）模型分析胰腺癌疾病负担的年龄、时期、出生队列效应。结果报告如下。

1　资料与方法

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1.1　资料来源

资料来源于GBD 2021公开数据库（https://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2021），该数据库来自美国华盛顿大学健康指标和评估研究所（Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, IHME）所牵头的2021年全球疾病负担项目，包含204个国家和地区的371种疾病和伤害的疾病负担的估算数据。本研究提取其中1990—2021年中国居民胰腺癌标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率等指标进行分析，各标化率均采用 GBD 2021全球标准人口年龄构成^[5]进行计算。GBD 2021采用《疾病和有关健康问题的国际统计分类》第十次修订本（International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, ICD-10）^[6]编码对胰腺癌进行分类，编码为C25.0～C25.9。

1.2　统计分析

采用Excel 2019软件建立数据库，应用Joinpoint Regression Program 5.1.0.0软件通过计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percent change，AAPC）对中国居民1990—2021年胰腺癌标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率的时间变化趋势进行分析；应用Stata 17.0软件进行APC模型拟合，将1990—2021年中国居民胰腺癌标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率按年龄、时期和出生队列进行分层汇总，通过效应系数描述中国居民胰腺癌的疾病负担风险及其变化，效应系数为正值表示疾病负担风险增加，效应系数为负值表示疾病负担风险减少^[7]。检验水准为双侧检验α=0.05。

2　结　果

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2.1　中国居民1990—2021年胰腺癌疾病负担变化趋势（表1）

中国总体、男性和女性居民1990—2021年胰腺癌标化发病率分别从1990年的4.54/10万、5.55/10万和3.64/10万上升至2021年的5.64/10万、7.29/10万和4.18/10万，AAPC值分别为0.72%、0.89%和0.48%，总体、男性和女性居民上升趋势均有统计学意义（均P<0.001）；胰腺癌标化死亡率分别从1990年的4.83/10万、5.91/10万和3.90/10万上升至2021年的5.72/10万、7.37/10万和4.29/10万，AAPC值分别为0.56%、0.55%和0.33%，总体、男性和女性居民上升趋势均有统计学意义（均P<0.001）；胰腺癌标化DALYs率分别从1990年的123.16/10万、151.33/10万和95.37/10万上升至2021年的137.23/10万、179.36/10万和96.89/10万，AAPC值分别为0.36%、0.55%和0.07%，总体和男性居民上升趋势均有统计学意义（均P<0.001）。

2.2　中国居民1990—2021年胰腺癌疾病负担APC模型分析

2.2.1　胰腺癌发病率（表2）

中国总体、男性和女性居民胰腺癌发病风险均随年龄的增长总体呈上升趋势，年龄效应系数均在15～19岁为最低，总体和男性居民均在85～89岁为最高，女性居民在80～84岁为最高；中国总体、男性和女性居民胰腺癌发病风险均随着时期的推移而上升，总体、男性和女性居民的时期效应系数均在1992—1996年为最低，在2017—2021年为最高；中国总体、男性和女性居民胰腺癌发病风险均随着出生年份的推移呈下降趋势，总体、男性和女性居民的最低出生队列效应系数均在2002—2006年，最高出生队列效应系数均在1897—1901年。

2.2.2　胰腺癌死亡率（表3）

中国总体、男性和女性居民胰腺癌死亡风险均随年龄的增长总体呈上升趋势，年龄效应系数均在15～19岁为最低，总体居民在85～89岁为最高，男性居民在90～94岁为最高，女性居民在80～84岁和85～89岁均为最高；中国总体、男性和女性居民胰腺癌死亡风险均随着时期的推移而上升，总体、男性和女性居民的时期效应系数均在1992—1996年为最低，在2017—2021年为最高；中国总体、男性和女性居民胰腺癌死亡风险均随着出生年份的推移总体呈下降趋势，总体、男性和女性居民的最低出生队列效应系数均在2002—2006年，最高出生队列效应系数均在1897—1901年。

2.2.3　胰腺癌DALYs率（表4）

中国总体、男性和女性居民胰腺癌疾病负担风险均随年龄的增长总体呈上升趋势，年龄效应系数均在15～19岁为最低，在70～74岁为最高；中国总体、男性和女性居民胰腺癌疾病负担风险均随着时期的推移而上升，总体、男性和女性居民的时期效应系数均在1992—1996年为最低，在2017—2021年为最高；中国总体、男性和女性居民胰腺癌疾病负担风险均随着出生年份的推移总体呈下降趋势，总体、男性和女性居民的最低队列效应系数均在2002—2006年，最高队列效应系数均在1897—1901年。

3　讨　论

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胰腺癌是一种预后不良的恶性肿瘤，由于发现时约80%的患者已处于局部进展期或晚期^[8]，失去了进行根治性手术的机会，因此其5年生存率仅为10%^[9]。本研究结果显示，中国居民1990—2021年胰腺癌疾病负担呈上升趋势，标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率分别从1990年的4.54/10万、4.83/10万和123.16/10万上升至2021年的5.64/10万、5.72/10万和137.23/10万，AAPC值分别为0.72%、0.56%和0.36%（均P<0.001），与国内外相关研究^[10–12]结果一致，胰腺癌的防治已成为一个不容忽视的公共卫生问题。

本研究结果还显示，中国居民1990—2021年胰腺癌疾病负担存在明显的性别差异，男性居民胰腺癌的标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率均高于女性居民，与既往研究^[12–13]结果一致，表明男性居民可能是胰腺癌的高发人群。有研究表明，患胰腺癌的危险因素包括家族史、肥胖、2 型糖尿病和吸烟^[14]，我国男性居民的吸烟率^[15]和肥胖率^[16]均高于女性居民，不良的生活习惯可能是男性居民胰腺癌高发的原因。因此，今后应加大对男性居民的健康教育力度，宣传健康知识，控制吸烟行为，改善不良生活方式和饮食习惯，以减轻胰腺癌的发病率。

APC模型分析结果显示，男性和女性居民胰腺癌的发病风险、死亡风险和疾病负担风险均随年龄的增长总体呈上升趋势，这提示胰腺癌更常见于老年人群，今后需特别关注老年人群的胰腺癌疾病负担并采取有效的预防措施。男性和女性居民胰腺癌的发病风险、死亡风险和疾病负担风险均随时期的推移呈增长趋势，这可能是由于人口老龄化和生活方式的改变所导致^[17–18]。随着人口老龄化的加剧，老年人口比例明显上升，与此同时，中国社会亦面临着由不良生活方式转变所带来的挑战^[19]，这些因素共同增加了胰腺癌的发病风险、死亡风险和疾病负担风险，因此应提高公众的健康意识，倡导其进行健康的生活方式，并对高风险人群进行定期的健康检查和监测，早诊早治，从而降低胰腺癌的发病率和死亡率^[20]。男性和女性居民胰腺癌的发病风险、死亡风险和疾病负担风险均随出生队列的推移呈下降趋势，这可能与我国教育水平的上升^[21]使得较晚出生的人群拥有更高的教育背景，从而有助于其获取和理解健康知识有关。此外，医疗条件的改善和居民生活水平的提升^[22]亦可能激发了较晚出生人群对疾病预防和健康维护的重视，进而有效地减轻了胰腺癌的疾病负担。

综上所述，中国居民1990—2021年胰腺癌的疾病负担总体呈上升趋势，特别是老年和男性群体，其疾病负担尤为严重。随着人口老龄化的加速以及生活方式的变迁，预计我国胰腺癌的防控形势将变得更加严峻，而早诊早治是胰腺癌防治的有效手段，因此需要政府和卫生部门制定和实施公共卫生政策，重点关注老年和男性群体，通过普及健康知识、加强疾病预防知识宣传、有序开展筛查等干预措施降低我国居民胰腺癌的发病率和死亡率并减轻其疾病负担。

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2025年第41卷第5期

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doi: 10.11847/zgggws1145196

接收时间：2024-06-13
首发时间：2026-10-25
出版时间：2025-05-10

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收稿日期：2024-06-13
修回日期：2024-09-21
录用日期：2024-11-19

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广东医科大学公共卫生学院，东莞 523808

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杜进林，E-mail：dujinlin@gdmu.edu.cn

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

科 Family	属数 Number of genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)	属 Genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae	2	11	5.26	鹅膏菌属 Amanita	10	4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae	2	12	5.74	丝盖伞属 Inocybe	5	2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae	8	14	6.70	蜡蘑属 Laccaria	5	2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae	3	23	11.00	小皮伞属 Marasmius	6	2.87
				小菇属 Mycena	11	5.26
				光柄菇属 Pluteus	5	2.39
				红菇属 Russula	17	8.13
				栓菌属 Trametes	5	2.39

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年份	标化发病率/（1/10万）		标化死亡率/（1/10万）	标化DALYs率/（1/10万）
1990	4.54	5.55	3.64	4.83	5.91	3.90	123.16	151.33	95.37
1991	4.57	5.59	3.64	4.86	5.95	3.90	123.62	152.31	95.28
1992	4.58	5.60	3.65	4.87	5.96	3.92	123.44	152.04	95.18
1993	4.59	5.59	3.68	4.88	5.95	3.95	123.17	151.02	95.70
1994	4.59	5.56	3.72	4.88	5.91	3.98	122.59	149.42	96.16
1995	4.62	5.62	3.72	4.91	5.98	3.99	122.96	150.57	95.78
1996	4.65	5.64	3.76	4.94	6.00	4.03	123.27	150.65	96.31
1997	4.66	5.66	3.76	4.95	6.01	4.03	123.24	150.82	96.06
1998	4.70	5.71	3.80	5.00	6.07	4.06	123.99	151.77	96.64
1999	4.78	5.80	3.86	5.08	6.16	4.13	125.33	153.27	97.91
2000	4.89	5.98	3.92	5.19	6.35	4.19	127.36	156.74	98.63
2001	4.93	6.05	3.93	5.24	6.43	4.20	127.63	157.77	98.29
2002	4.92	6.07	3.89	5.22	6.44	4.16	127.14	158.10	97.01
2003	4.95	6.17	3.88	5.25	6.55	4.15	127.17	159.28	96.14
2004	5.03	6.29	3.92	5.33	6.66	4.18	128.23	161.47	96.11
2005	5.07	6.37	3.93	5.35	6.72	4.18	128.37	162.32	95.65
2006	5.01	6.31	3.86	5.26	6.62	4.09	126.61	160.73	93.71
2007	5.04	6.39	3.86	5.27	6.69	4.07	126.84	161.94	93.17
2008	5.10	6.49	3.87	5.32	6.77	4.08	127.78	164.03	92.89
2009	5.16	6.62	3.87	5.38	6.89	4.07	128.87	166.63	92.49
2010	5.26	6.79	3.90	5.46	7.04	4.09	130.87	170.42	92.73
2011	5.33	6.91	3.92	5.52	7.15	4.10	132.00	172.80	92.66
2012	5.31	6.96	3.84	5.48	7.17	4.00	131.43	173.67	90.77
2013	5.26	6.92	3.77	5.40	7.10	3.92	129.87	172.36	89.04
2014	5.20	6.84	3.74	5.33	7.00	3.86	128.34	170.34	88.05
2015	5.21	6.86	3.76	5.34	7.03	3.88	128.25	170.15	88.23
2016	5.27	6.90	3.83	5.40	7.07	3.96	129.22	170.77	89.59
2017	5.33	6.93	3.91	5.45	7.07	4.03	130.87	172.04	91.48
2018	5.42	7.02	4.00	5.52	7.14	4.11	132.71	173.96	93.20
2019	5.52	7.14	4.08	5.62	7.25	4.20	134.76	176.52	94.80
2020	5.60	7.24	4.16	5.69	7.33	4.27	136.51	178.48	96.31
2021	5.64	7.29	4.18	5.72	7.37	4.29	137.23	179.36	96.89
AAPC/%	0.72	0.89	0.48	0.56	0.55	0.33	0.36	0.55	0.07
t值	6.38	8.37	3.69	9.20	4.33	4.53	6.89	5.89	0.71
P值	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	0.48

年份

标化发病率/（1/10万）

标化死亡率/（1/10万）

标化DALYs率/（1/10万）

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

1990

4.54

5.55

3.64

4.83

5.91

3.90

123.16

151.33

95.37

1991

4.57

5.59

3.64

4.86

5.95

3.90

123.62

152.31

95.28

1992

4.58

5.60

3.65

4.87

5.96

3.92

123.44

152.04

95.18

1993

4.59

5.59

3.68

4.88

5.95

3.95

123.17

151.02

95.70

1994

4.59

5.56

3.72

4.88

5.91

3.98

122.59

149.42

96.16

1995

4.62

5.62

3.72

4.91

5.98

3.99

122.96

150.57

95.78

1996

4.65

5.64

3.76

4.94

6.00

4.03

123.27

150.65

96.31

1997

4.66

5.66

3.76

4.95

6.01

4.03

123.24

150.82

96.06

1998

4.70

5.71

3.80

5.00

6.07

4.06

123.99

151.77

96.64

1999

4.78

5.80

3.86

5.08

6.16

4.13

125.33

153.27

97.91

2000

4.89

5.98

3.92

5.19

6.35

4.19

127.36

156.74

98.63

2001

4.93

6.05

3.93

5.24

6.43

4.20

127.63

157.77

98.29

2002

4.92

6.07

3.89

5.22

6.44

4.16

127.14

158.10

97.01

2003

4.95

6.17

3.88

5.25

6.55

4.15

127.17

159.28

96.14

2004

5.03

6.29

3.92

5.33

6.66

4.18

128.23

161.47

96.11

2005

5.07

6.37

3.93

5.35

6.72

4.18

128.37

162.32

95.65

2006

5.01

6.31

3.86

5.26

6.62

4.09

126.61

160.73

93.71

2007

5.04

6.39

3.86

5.27

6.69

4.07

126.84

161.94

93.17

2008

5.10

6.49

3.87

5.32

6.77

4.08

127.78

164.03

92.89

2009

5.16

6.62

3.87

5.38

6.89

4.07

128.87

166.63

92.49

2010

5.26

6.79

3.90

5.46

7.04

4.09

130.87

170.42

92.73

2011

5.33

6.91

3.92

5.52

7.15

4.10

132.00

172.80

92.66

2012

5.31

6.96

3.84

5.48

7.17

4.00

131.43

173.67

90.77

2013

5.26

6.92

3.77

5.40

7.10

3.92

129.87

172.36

89.04

2014

5.20

6.84

3.74

5.33

7.00

3.86

128.34

170.34

88.05

2015

5.21

6.86

3.76

5.34

7.03

3.88

128.25

170.15

88.23

2016

5.27

6.90

3.83

5.40

7.07

3.96

129.22

170.77

89.59

2017

5.33

6.93

3.91

5.45

7.07

4.03

130.87

172.04

91.48

2018

5.42

7.02

4.00

5.52

7.14

4.11

132.71

173.96

93.20

2019

5.52

7.14

4.08

5.62

7.25

4.20

134.76

176.52

94.80

2020

5.60

7.24

4.16

5.69

7.33

4.27

136.51

178.48

96.31

2021

5.64

7.29

4.18

5.72

7.37

4.29

137.23

179.36

96.89

AAPC/%

0.72

0.89

0.48

0.56

0.55

0.33

0.36

0.55

0.07

t值

6.38

8.37

3.69

9.20

4.33

4.53

6.89

5.89

0.71

P值

<0.001

0.48

项目	分类	总体居民			女性居民
年龄效应/岁	15～19	–3.585	–5.289～–1.881	–3.638	–5.186～–2.090	–3.406	–5.346～–1.466
	20～24	–3.041	–4.187～–1.894	–3.117	–4.167～–2.067	–2.845	–4.130～–1.561
	25～29	–2.398	–3.223～–1.573	–2.423	–3.162～–1.684	–2.314	–3.272～–1.356
	30～34	–1.473	–2.041～–0.905	–1.357	–1.849～–0.866	–1.729	–2.454～–1.003
	35～39	–0.689	–1.130～–0.248	–0.537	–0.922～–0.152	–1.085	–1.645～–0.524
	40～44	–0.197	–0.570～0.176	–0.075	–0.404～0.254	–0.525	–0.984～–0.067
	45～49	0.076	–0.247～0.398	0.166	–0.119～0.452	–0.190	–0.581～0.201
	50～54	0.477	0.208～0.747	0.498	0.258～0.739	0.359	0.039～0.679
	55～59	0.785	0.562～1.009	0.766	0.566～0.966	0.736	0.473～0.999
	60～64	0.982	0.798～1.165	0.926	0.761～1.090	0.997	0.783～1.211
	65～69	1.147	0.996～1.297	1.064	0.929～1.199	1.212	1.037～1.387
	70～74	1.353	1.225～1.481	1.235	1.121～1.350	1.474	1.324～1.624
	75～79	1.398	1.272～1.524	1.256	1.145～1.368	1.557	1.407～1.707
	80～84	1.412	1.270～1.553	1.289	1.165～1.414	1.582	1.409～1.754
	85～89	1.527	1.357～1.698	1.623	1.475～1.772	1.557	1.347～1.767
	90～94	1.371	1.162～1.579	1.567	1.386～1.749	1.459	1.202～1.715
	≥95	0.856	0.603～1.109	0.755	0.533～0.977	1.162	0.852～1.472
时期效应/年份	1992—1996	–0.455	–0.586～–0.323	–0.477	–0.594～–0.361	–0.388	–0.545～–0.231
	1997—2001	–0.254	–0.340～–0.168	–0.304	–0.380～–0.227	–0.198	–0.299～–0.097
	2002—2006	–0.061	–0.112～–0.010	–0.101	–0.146～–0.056	–0.035	–0.093～0.023
	2007—2011	0.096	0.045～0.147	0.101	0.057～0.146	0.077	0.018～0.135
	2012—2016	0.235	0.150～0.320	0.292	0.218～0.367	0.162	0.061～0.264
	2017—2021	0.439	0.312～0.566	0.488	0.376～0.600	0.382	0.229～0.535
出生队列效应/年份	1897—1901	1.520	1.155～1.885	1.374	1.045～1.704	1.504	1.077～1.932
	1902—1906	1.320	1.010～1.631	1.254	0.978～1.530	1.317	0.949～1.685
	1907—1911	1.152	0.881～1.423	1.126	0.885～1.367	1.174	0.851～1.498
	1912—1916	1.001	0.760～1.242	1.053	0.839～1.266	1.016	0.728～1.304
	1917—1921	0.889	0.670～1.109	1.007	0.813～1.201	0.884	0.621～1.147
	1922—1926	0.809	0.602～1.016	0.881	0.697～1.064	0.827	0.578～1.076
	1927—1931	0.706	0.497～0.914	0.713	0.529～0.897	0.757	0.505～1.009
	1932—1936	0.590	0.368～0.812	0.606	0.410～0.802	0.646	0.377～0.915
	1937—1941	0.451	0.206～0.697	0.467	0.250～0.684	0.513	0.216～0.810
	1942—1946	0.298	0.022～0.573	0.301	0.057～0.545	0.373	0.038～0.707
	1947—1951	0.171	–0.140～0.482	0.171	–0.104～0.446	0.249	–0.129～0.626
	1952—1956	–0.002	–0.353～0.349	–0.004	–0.314～0.306	0.080	–0.347～0.507
	1957—1961	–0.163	–0.557～0.230	–0.171	–0.518～0.176	–0.086	–0.566～0.393
	1962—1966	–0.383	–0.824～0.058	–0.391	–0.779～–0.003	–0.314	–0.852～0.225
	1967—1971	–0.522	–1.014～–0.031	–0.529	–0.960～–0.097	–0.480	–1.085～0.125
	1972—1976	–0.706	–1.257～–0.155	–0.731	–1.213～–0.248	–0.666	–1.351～0.020
	1977—1981	–0.826	–1.442～–0.210	–0.847	–1.384～–0.310	–0.833	–1.612～–0.055
	1982—1986	–0.928	–1.654～–0.201	–0.940	–1.566～–0.314	–0.997	–1.947～–0.047
	1987—1991	–1.037	–1.992～–0.081	–1.024	–1.839～–0.209	–1.170	–2.424～0.085
	1992—1996	–1.214	–2.658～0.231	–1.199	–2.466～0.068	–1.346	–3.105～0.414
	1997—2001	–1.412	–3.655～0.831	–1.400	–3.388～0.589	–1.571	–4.263～1.121
	2002—2006	–1.716	–6.247～2.816	–1.719	–5.738～2.300	–1.877	–7.347～3.594

项目

分类

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

年龄效应/岁

15～19

–3.585

–5.289～–1.881

–3.638

–5.186～–2.090

–3.406

–5.346～–1.466

20～24

–3.041

–4.187～–1.894

–3.117

–4.167～–2.067

–2.845

–4.130～–1.561

25～29

–2.398

–3.223～–1.573

–2.423

–3.162～–1.684

–2.314

–3.272～–1.356

30～34

–1.473

–2.041～–0.905

–1.357

–1.849～–0.866

–1.729

–2.454～–1.003

35～39

–0.689

–1.130～–0.248

–0.537

–0.922～–0.152

–1.085

–1.645～–0.524

40～44

–0.197

–0.570～0.176

–0.075

–0.404～0.254

–0.525

–0.984～–0.067

45～49

0.076

–0.247～0.398

0.166

–0.119～0.452

–0.190

–0.581～0.201

50～54

0.477

0.208～0.747

0.498

0.258～0.739

0.359

0.039～0.679

55～59

0.785

0.562～1.009

0.766

0.566～0.966

0.736

0.473～0.999

60～64

0.982

0.798～1.165

0.926

0.761～1.090

0.997

0.783～1.211

65～69

1.147

0.996～1.297

1.064

0.929～1.199

1.212

1.037～1.387

70～74

1.353

1.225～1.481

1.235

1.121～1.350

1.474

1.324～1.624

75～79

1.398

1.272～1.524

1.256

1.145～1.368

1.557

1.407～1.707

80～84

1.412

1.270～1.553

1.289

1.165～1.414

1.582

1.409～1.754

85～89

1.527

1.357～1.698

1.623

1.475～1.772

1.557

1.347～1.767

90～94

1.371

1.162～1.579

1.567

1.386～1.749

1.459

1.202～1.715

≥95

0.856

0.603～1.109

0.755

0.533～0.977

1.162

0.852～1.472

时期效应/年份

1992—1996

–0.455

–0.586～–0.323

–0.477

–0.594～–0.361

–0.388

–0.545～–0.231

1997—2001

–0.254

–0.340～–0.168

–0.304

–0.380～–0.227

–0.198

–0.299～–0.097

2002—2006

–0.061

–0.112～–0.010

–0.101

–0.146～–0.056

–0.035

–0.093～0.023

2007—2011

0.096

0.045～0.147

0.101

0.057～0.146

0.077

0.018～0.135

2012—2016

0.235

0.150～0.320

0.292

0.218～0.367

0.162

0.061～0.264

2017—2021

0.439

0.312～0.566

0.488

0.376～0.600

0.382

0.229～0.535

出生队列效应/年份

1897—1901

1.520

1.155～1.885

1.374

1.045～1.704

1.504

1.077～1.932

1902—1906

1.320

1.010～1.631

1.254

0.978～1.530

1.317

0.949～1.685

1907—1911

1.152

0.881～1.423

1.126

0.885～1.367

1.174

0.851～1.498

1912—1916

1.001

0.760～1.242

1.053

0.839～1.266

1.016

0.728～1.304

1917—1921

0.889

0.670～1.109

1.007

0.813～1.201

0.884

0.621～1.147

1922—1926

0.809

0.602～1.016

0.881

0.697～1.064

0.827

0.578～1.076

1927—1931

0.706

0.497～0.914

0.713

0.529～0.897

0.757

0.505～1.009

1932—1936

0.590

0.368～0.812

0.606

0.410～0.802

0.646

0.377～0.915

1937—1941

0.451

0.206～0.697

0.467

0.250～0.684

0.513

0.216～0.810

1942—1946

0.298

0.022～0.573

0.301

0.057～0.545

0.373

0.038～0.707

1947—1951

0.171

–0.140～0.482

0.171

–0.104～0.446

0.249

–0.129～0.626

1952—1956

–0.002

–0.353～0.349

–0.004

–0.314～0.306

0.080

–0.347～0.507

1957—1961

–0.163

–0.557～0.230

–0.171

–0.518～0.176

–0.086

–0.566～0.393

1962—1966

–0.383

–0.824～0.058

–0.391

–0.779～–0.003

–0.314

–0.852～0.225

1967—1971

–0.522

–1.014～–0.031

–0.529

–0.960～–0.097

–0.480

–1.085～0.125

1972—1976

–0.706

–1.257～–0.155

–0.731

–1.213～–0.248

–0.666

–1.351～0.020

1977—1981

–0.826

–1.442～–0.210

–0.847

–1.384～–0.310

–0.833

–1.612～–0.055

1982—1986

–0.928

–1.654～–0.201

–0.940

–1.566～–0.314

–0.997

–1.947～–0.047

1987—1991

–1.037

–1.992～–0.081

–1.024

–1.839～–0.209

–1.170

–2.424～0.085

1992—1996

–1.214

–2.658～0.231

–1.199

–2.466～0.068

–1.346

–3.105～0.414

1997—2001

–1.412

–3.655～0.831

–1.400

–3.388～0.589

–1.571

–4.263～1.121

2002—2006

–1.716

–6.247～2.816

–1.719

–5.738～2.300

–1.877

–7.347～3.594

项目	分类	总体居民			女性居民
年龄效应/岁	15～19	–3.609	–5.351～–1.867	–3.658	–5.235～–2.080	–3.428	–5.421～–1.434
	20～24	–3.039	–4.195～–1.882	–3.110	–4.166～–2.054	–2.843	–4.146～–1.541
	25～29	–2.495	–3.360～–1.630	–2.516	–3.288～–1.743	–2.414	–3.424～–1.404
	30～34	–1.590	–2.185～–0.996	–1.472	–1.984～–0.960	–1.853	–2.619～–1.087
	35～39	–0.866	–1.330～–0.402	–0.711	–1.114～–0.309	–1.271	–1.869～–0.674
	40～44	–0.338	–0.726～0.051	–0.213	–0.553～0.127	–0.676	–1.158～–0.195
	45～49	–0.032	–0.366～0.303	0.060	–0.234～0.354	–0.302	–0.711～0.106
	50～54	0.389	0.111～0.668	0.410	0.163～0.657	0.268	–0.064～0.601
	55～59	0.729	0.499～0.959	0.710	0.505～0.914	0.678	0.405～0.950
	60～64	0.949	0.761～1.137	0.893	0.725～1.061	0.964	0.743～1.185
	65～69	1.146	0.992～1.299	1.063	0.926～1.200	1.211	1.032～1.391
	70～74	1.387	1.257～1.517	1.268	1.152～1.384	1.509	1.356～1.663
	75～79	1.471	1.343～1.599	1.323	1.210～1.436	1.636	1.482～1.790
	80～84	1.509	1.364～1.654	1.381	1.254～1.508	1.686	1.508～1.865
	85～89	1.647	1.471～1.822	1.737	1.585～1.890	1.686	1.467～1.905
	90～94	1.556	1.340～1.771	1.751	1.565～1.938	1.651	1.383～1.919
	≥95	1.186	0.925～1.446	1.083	0.855～1.310	1.499	1.176～1.822
时期效应/年份	1992—1996	–0.451	–0.586～–0.316	–0.465	–0.584～–0.346	–0.384	–0.547～–0.222
	1997—2001	–0.243	–0.330～–0.156	–0.292	–0.369～–0.215	–0.188	–0.291～–0.084
	2002—2006	–0.048	–0.096～0.000	–0.095	–0.137～–0.052	–0.020	–0.075～0.034
	2007—2011	0.094	0.045～0.144	0.094	0.052～0.137	0.077	0.020～0.133
	2012—2016	0.223	0.136～0.309	0.280	0.204～0.356	0.150	0.046～0.253
	2017—2021	0.425	0.294～0.556	0.477	0.362～0.592	0.366	0.207～0.525
出生队列效应/年份	1897—1901	1.610	1.243～1.976	1.456	1.129～1.784	1.594	1.157～2.030
	1902—1906	1.415	1.098～1.731	1.339	1.059～1.619	1.411	1.031～1.791
	1907—1911	1.237	0.959～1.515	1.205	0.959～1.451	1.258	0.923～1.593
	1912—1916	1.067	0.819～1.315	1.119	0.901～1.338	1.083	0.784～1.382
	1917—1921	0.934	0.709～1.160	1.060	0.861～1.259	0.928	0.655～1.202
	1922—1926	0.839	0.625～1.053	0.916	0.728～1.105	0.857	0.597～1.117
	1927—1931	0.712	0.496～0.928	0.717	0.528～0.907	0.766	0.503～1.030
	1932—1936	0.587	0.358～0.817	0.602	0.400～0.804	0.648	0.366～0.929
	1937—1941	0.447	0.193～0.701	0.463	0.240～0.687	0.513	0.203～0.824
	1942—1946	0.293	0.007～0.579	0.297	0.045～0.548	0.373	0.023～0.723
	1947—1951	0.164	–0.159～0.487	0.164	–0.119～0.448	0.247	–0.148～0.643
	1952—1956	–0.009	–0.374～0.355	–0.011	–0.331～0.309	0.079	–0.368～0.526
	1957—1961	–0.172	–0.581～0.237	–0.179	–0.538～0.179	–0.088	–0.591～0.414
	1962—1966	–0.395	–0.853～0.063	–0.403	–0.804～–0.001	–0.320	–0.885～0.246
	1967—1971	–0.539	–1.051～–0.027	–0.545	–0.992～–0.098	–0.492	–1.127～0.144
	1972—1976	–0.729	–1.305～–0.154	–0.752	–1.253～–0.251	–0.688	–1.410～0.035
	1977—1981	–0.859	–1.505～–0.212	–0.878	–1.438～–0.318	–0.871	–1.697～–0.045
	1982—1986	–0.970	–1.739～–0.202	–0.982	–1.640～–0.323	–1.045	–2.062～–0.028
	1987—1991	–1.089	–2.098～–0.081	–1.075	–1.931～–0.218	–1.230	–2.565～0.106
	1992—1996	–1.275	–2.792～0.241	–1.259	–2.585～0.066	–1.415	–3.276～0.446
	1997—2001	–1.475	–3.777～0.826	–1.462	–3.493～0.569	–1.647	–4.434～1.141
	2002—2006	–1.790	–6.506～2.926	–1.794	–5.958～2.370	–1.964	–7.711～3.782

项目

分类

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

年龄效应/岁

15～19

–3.609

–5.351～–1.867

–3.658

–5.235～–2.080

–3.428

–5.421～–1.434

20～24

–3.039

–4.195～–1.882

–3.110

–4.166～–2.054

–2.843

–4.146～–1.541

25～29

–2.495

–3.360～–1.630

–2.516

–3.288～–1.743

–2.414

–3.424～–1.404

30～34

–1.590

–2.185～–0.996

–1.472

–1.984～–0.960

–1.853

–2.619～–1.087

35～39

–0.866

–1.330～–0.402

–0.711

–1.114～–0.309

–1.271

–1.869～–0.674

40～44

–0.338

–0.726～0.051

–0.213

–0.553～0.127

–0.676

–1.158～–0.195

45～49

–0.032

–0.366～0.303

0.060

–0.234～0.354

–0.302

–0.711～0.106

50～54

0.389

0.111～0.668

0.410

0.163～0.657

0.268

–0.064～0.601

55～59

0.729

0.499～0.959

0.710

0.505～0.914

0.678

0.405～0.950

60～64

0.949

0.761～1.137

0.893

0.725～1.061

0.964

0.743～1.185

65～69

1.146

0.992～1.299

1.063

0.926～1.200

1.211

1.032～1.391

70～74

1.387

1.257～1.517

1.268

1.152～1.384

1.509

1.356～1.663

75～79

1.471

1.343～1.599

1.323

1.210～1.436

1.636

1.482～1.790

80～84

1.509

1.364～1.654

1.381

1.254～1.508

1.686

1.508～1.865

85～89

1.647

1.471～1.822

1.737

1.585～1.890

1.686

1.467～1.905

90～94

1.556

1.340～1.771

1.751

1.565～1.938

1.651

1.383～1.919

≥95

1.186

0.925～1.446

1.083

0.855～1.310

1.499

1.176～1.822

时期效应/年份

1992—1996

–0.451

–0.586～–0.316

–0.465

–0.584～–0.346

–0.384

–0.547～–0.222

1997—2001

–0.243

–0.330～–0.156

–0.292

–0.369～–0.215

–0.188

–0.291～–0.084

2002—2006

–0.048

–0.096～0.000

–0.095

–0.137～–0.052

–0.020

–0.075～0.034

2007—2011

0.094

0.045～0.144

0.094

0.052～0.137

0.077

0.020～0.133

2012—2016

0.223

0.136～0.309

0.280

0.204～0.356

0.150

0.046～0.253

2017—2021

0.425

0.294～0.556

0.477

0.362～0.592

0.366

0.207～0.525

出生队列效应/年份

1897—1901

1.610

1.243～1.976

1.456

1.129～1.784

1.594

1.157～2.030

1902—1906

1.415

1.098～1.731

1.339

1.059～1.619

1.411

1.031～1.791

1907—1911

1.237

0.959～1.515

1.205

0.959～1.451

1.258

0.923～1.593

1912—1916

1.067

0.819～1.315

1.119

0.901～1.338

1.083

0.784～1.382

1917—1921

0.934

0.709～1.160

1.060

0.861～1.259

0.928

0.655～1.202

1922—1926

0.839

0.625～1.053

0.916

0.728～1.105

0.857

0.597～1.117

1927—1931

0.712

0.496～0.928

0.717

0.528～0.907

0.766

0.503～1.030

1932—1936

0.587

0.358～0.817

0.602

0.400～0.804

0.648

0.366～0.929

1937—1941

0.447

0.193～0.701

0.463

0.240～0.687

0.513

0.203～0.824

1942—1946

0.293

0.007～0.579

0.297

0.045～0.548

0.373

0.023～0.723

1947—1951

0.164

–0.159～0.487

0.164

–0.119～0.448

0.247

–0.148～0.643

1952—1956

–0.009

–0.374～0.355

–0.011

–0.331～0.309

0.079

–0.368～0.526

1957—1961

–0.172

–0.581～0.237

–0.179

–0.538～0.179

–0.088

–0.591～0.414

1962—1966

–0.395

–0.853～0.063

–0.403

–0.804～–0.001

–0.320

–0.885～0.246

1967—1971

–0.539

–1.051～–0.027

–0.545

–0.992～–0.098

–0.492

–1.127～0.144

1972—1976

–0.729

–1.305～–0.154

–0.752

–1.253～–0.251

–0.688

–1.410～0.035

1977—1981

–0.859

–1.505～–0.212

–0.878

–1.438～–0.318

–0.871

–1.697～–0.045

1982—1986

–0.970

–1.739～–0.202

–0.982

–1.640～–0.323

–1.045

–2.062～–0.028

1987—1991

–1.089

–2.098～–0.081

–1.075

–1.931～–0.218

–1.230

–2.565～0.106

1992—1996

–1.275

–2.792～0.241

–1.259

–2.585～0.066

–1.415

–3.276～0.446

1997—2001

–1.475

–3.777～0.826

–1.462

–3.493～0.569

–1.647

–4.434～1.141

2002—2006

–1.790

–6.506～2.926

–1.794

–5.958～2.370

–1.964

–7.711～3.782

项目	分类	总体居民			女性居民
年龄效应/岁	15～19	–3.015	–3.220～–2.810	–3.069	–3.255～–2.883	–2.834	–3.069～–2.600
	20～24	–2.472	–2.612～–2.331	–2.546	–2.675～–2.418	–2.276	–2.435～–2.118
	25～29	–1.962	–2.070～–1.854	–1.985	–2.082～–1.888	–1.880	–2.007～–1.754
	30～34	–1.099	–1.175～–1.023	–0.982	–1.048～–0.917	–1.360	–1.459～–1.262
	35～39	–0.422	–0.482～–0.362	–0.268	–0.319～–0.216	–0.825	–0.903～–0.747
	40～44	0.053	0.002～0.103	0.177	0.133～0.222	–0.283	–0.347～–0.220
	45～49	0.295	0.250～0.339	0.387	0.348～0.426	0.025	–0.030～0.080
	50～54	0.641	0.603～0.678	0.662	0.629～0.695	0.521	0.476～0.566
	55～59	0.893	0.861～0.925	0.875	0.847～0.903	0.842	0.804～0.879
	60～64	1.008	0.981～1.035	0.953	0.929～0.977	1.022	0.990～1.053
	65～69	1.075	1.052～1.098	0.993	0.972～1.013	1.139	1.112～1.166
	70～74	1.166	1.146～1.186	1.049	1.030～1.067	1.286	1.263～1.310
	75～79	1.071	1.051～1.091	0.929	0.911～0.947	1.233	1.210～1.256
	80～84	0.912	0.890～0.934	0.788	0.769～0.808	1.087	1.061～1.113
	85～89	0.865	0.840～0.891	0.957	0.935～0.978	0.905	0.874～0.936
	90～94	0.684	0.654～0.714	0.881	0.856～0.907	0.778	0.741～0.815
	≥95	0.307	0.271～0.343	0.200	0.168～0.232	0.622	0.578～0.666
时期效应/年份	1992—1996	–0.323	–0.342～–0.304	–0.358	–0.375～–0.341	–0.252	–0.274～–0.229
	1997—2001	–0.180	–0.194～–0.166	–0.229	–0.241～–0.216	–0.121	–0.137～–0.104
	2002—2006	–0.042	–0.053～–0.031	–0.073	–0.082～–0.063	–0.018	–0.030～–0.005
	2007—2011	0.067	0.056～0.078	0.078	0.068～0.088	0.043	0.030～0.055
	2012—2016	0.162	0.148～0.176	0.218	0.206～0.230	0.087	0.070～0.103
	2017—2021	0.316	0.298～0.334	0.364	0.348～0.379	0.260	0.239～0.282
出生队列效应/年份	1897—1901	1.135	1.076～1.194	1.000	0.945～1.055	1.114	1.048～1.181
	1902—1906	0.990	0.944～1.036	0.925	0.884～0.966	0.984	0.930～1.038
	1907—1911	0.863	0.824～0.902	0.835	0.800～0.869	0.884	0.838～0.930
	1912—1916	0.743	0.709～0.778	0.793	0.763～0.824	0.757	0.716～0.797
	1917—1921	0.654	0.623～0.685	0.765	0.738～0.792	0.652	0.615～0.688
	1922—1926	0.598	0.569～0.626	0.665	0.640～0.690	0.619	0.585～0.653
	1927—1931	0.523	0.494～0.552	0.532	0.507～0.558	0.576	0.542～0.611
	1932—1936	0.443	0.412～0.474	0.456	0.429～0.483	0.506	0.469～0.543
	1937—1941	0.345	0.312～0.379	0.354	0.325～0.384	0.416	0.376～0.457
	1942—1946	0.237	0.199～0.274	0.237	0.204～0.270	0.318	0.272～0.363
	1947—1951	0.148	0.106～0.190	0.146	0.109～0.183	0.233	0.181～0.284
	1952—1956	0.015	–0.032～0.063	0.011	–0.030～0.053	0.103	0.046～0.161
	1957—1961	–0.108	–0.160～–0.055	–0.117	–0.163～–0.071	–0.026	–0.091～0.039
	1962—1966	–0.277	–0.336～–0.218	–0.287	–0.338～–0.235	–0.203	–0.276～–0.130
	1967—1971	–0.383	–0.448～–0.317	–0.391	–0.448～–0.334	–0.338	–0.420～–0.256
	1972—1976	–0.533	–0.607～–0.459	–0.557	–0.621～–0.493	–0.495	–0.588～–0.401
	1977—1981	–0.619	–0.702～–0.537	–0.639	–0.710～–0.568	–0.632	–0.738～–0.526
	1982—1986	–0.685	–0.783～–0.587	–0.695	–0.779～–0.612	–0.759	–0.889～–0.629
	1987—1991	–0.765	–0.893～–0.638	–0.748	–0.856～–0.640	–0.904	–1.072～–0.736
	1992—1996	–0.915	–1.102～–0.727	–0.897	–1.061～–0.733	–1.052	–1.281～–0.822
	1997—2001	–1.071	–1.348～–0.795	–1.053	–1.297～–0.809	–1.241	–1.576～–0.906
	2002—2006	–1.338	–1.891～–0.785	–1.334	–1.823～–0.846	–1.513	–2.187～–0.839

项目

分类

总体居民

男性居民

女性居民

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

效应系数

95%CI

年龄效应/岁

15～19

–3.015

–3.220～–2.810

–3.069

–3.255～–2.883

–2.834

–3.069～–2.600

20～24

–2.472

–2.612～–2.331

–2.546

–2.675～–2.418

–2.276

–2.435～–2.118

25～29

–1.962

–2.070～–1.854

–1.985

–2.082～–1.888

–1.880

–2.007～–1.754

30～34

–1.099

–1.175～–1.023

–0.982

–1.048～–0.917

–1.360

–1.459～–1.262

35～39

–0.422

–0.482～–0.362

–0.268

–0.319～–0.216

–0.825

–0.903～–0.747

40～44

0.053

0.002～0.103

0.177

0.133～0.222

–0.283

–0.347～–0.220

45～49

0.295

0.250～0.339

0.387

0.348～0.426

0.025

–0.030～0.080

50～54

0.641

0.603～0.678

0.662

0.629～0.695

0.521

0.476～0.566

55～59

0.893

0.861～0.925

0.875

0.847～0.903

0.842

0.804～0.879

60～64

1.008

0.981～1.035

0.953

0.929～0.977

1.022

0.990～1.053

65～69

1.075

1.052～1.098

0.993

0.972～1.013

1.139

1.112～1.166

70～74

1.166

1.146～1.186

1.049

1.030～1.067

1.286

1.263～1.310

75～79

1.071

1.051～1.091

0.929

0.911～0.947

1.233

1.210～1.256

80～84

0.912

0.890～0.934

0.788

0.769～0.808

1.087

1.061～1.113

85～89

0.865

0.840～0.891

0.957

0.935～0.978

0.905

0.874～0.936

90～94

0.684

0.654～0.714

0.881

0.856～0.907

0.778

0.741～0.815

≥95

0.307

0.271～0.343

0.200

0.168～0.232

0.622

0.578～0.666

时期效应/年份

1992—1996

–0.323

–0.342～–0.304

–0.358

–0.375～–0.341

–0.252

–0.274～–0.229

1997—2001

–0.180

–0.194～–0.166

–0.229

–0.241～–0.216

–0.121

–0.137～–0.104

2002—2006

–0.042

–0.053～–0.031

–0.073

–0.082～–0.063

–0.018

–0.030～–0.005

2007—2011

0.067

0.056～0.078

0.078

0.068～0.088

0.043

0.030～0.055

2012—2016

0.162

0.148～0.176

0.218

0.206～0.230

0.087

0.070～0.103

2017—2021

0.316

0.298～0.334

0.364

0.348～0.379

0.260

0.239～0.282

出生队列效应/年份

1897—1901

1.135

1.076～1.194

1.000

0.945～1.055

1.114

1.048～1.181

1902—1906

0.990

0.944～1.036

0.925

0.884～0.966

0.984

0.930～1.038

1907—1911

0.863

0.824～0.902

0.835

0.800～0.869

0.884

0.838～0.930

1912—1916

0.743

0.709～0.778

0.793

0.763～0.824

0.757

0.716～0.797

1917—1921

0.654

0.623～0.685

0.765

0.738～0.792

0.652

0.615～0.688

1922—1926

0.598

0.569～0.626

0.665

0.640～0.690

0.619

0.585～0.653

1927—1931

0.523

0.494～0.552

0.532

0.507～0.558

0.576

0.542～0.611

1932—1936

0.443

0.412～0.474

0.456

0.429～0.483

0.506

0.469～0.543

1937—1941

0.345

0.312～0.379

0.354

0.325～0.384

0.416

0.376～0.457

1942—1946

0.237

0.199～0.274

0.237

0.204～0.270

0.318

0.272～0.363

1947—1951

0.148

0.106～0.190

0.146

0.109～0.183

0.233

0.181～0.284

1952—1956

0.015

–0.032～0.063

0.011

–0.030～0.053

0.103

0.046～0.161

1957—1961

–0.108

–0.160～–0.055

–0.117

–0.163～–0.071

–0.026

–0.091～0.039

1962—1966

–0.277

–0.336～–0.218

–0.287

–0.338～–0.235

–0.203

–0.276～–0.130

1967—1971

–0.383

–0.448～–0.317

–0.391

–0.448～–0.334

–0.338

–0.420～–0.256

1972—1976

–0.533

–0.607～–0.459

–0.557

–0.621～–0.493

–0.495

–0.588～–0.401

1977—1981

–0.619

–0.702～–0.537

–0.639

–0.710～–0.568

–0.632

–0.738～–0.526

1982—1986

–0.685

–0.783～–0.587

–0.695

–0.779～–0.612

–0.759

–0.889～–0.629

1987—1991

–0.765

–0.893～–0.638

–0.748

–0.856～–0.640

–0.904

–1.072～–0.736

1992—1996

–0.915

–1.102～–0.727

–0.897

–1.061～–0.733

–1.052

–1.281～–0.822

1997—2001

–1.071

–1.348～–0.795

–1.053

–1.297～–0.809

–1.241

–1.576～–0.906

2002—2006

–1.338

–1.891～–0.785

–1.334

–1.823～–0.846

–1.513

–2.187～–0.839