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Article(id=1321169828631654694, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1321169735128043598, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1146704, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1734451200000, receivedDateStr=2024-12-18, revisedDate=1741017600000, revisedDateStr=2025-03-04, acceptedDate=1747324800000, acceptedDateStr=2025-05-16, onlineDate=1792921033294, onlineDateStr=2026-10-25, pubDate=1752076800000, pubDateStr=2025-07-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792921033294, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-25, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792921033294, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792921033294, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1321169735128043598, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2025', volume='41', issue='7', pageStart='769', pageEnd='896', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1752076800000', pubDateStr='2025-07-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792921011000, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792921011000, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=787, endPage=791, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1321169828816204071, articleId=1321169828631654694, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Varicella outbreak epidemics and their transmissibility in Ningbo city from 2020 to 2023: a retrospective study, columnId=1321169758473539832, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Special Report – Infectious Disease Surveillance, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the transmissibility of varicella in Ningbo city from 2020 to 2023 and provide a reference for establishing herd immunity targets for varicella vaccination.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of varicella outbreak cases in Ningbo city from 2020 to 2023 that met the research criteria was conducted. Based on multiple outbreaks in Ningbo city, parameters required for the model were provided using data calculation or curve fitting methods. Important epidemic parameters such as attack rate, incubation period (Te), serial interval (Tg), basic reproduction number (R0), and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) were calculated.

Results

From 2020 to 2023, the annual varicella attack rate in Ningbo city showed a wave-like upward trend, with a total of 17 reported public health emergencies of varicella, all of which were school outbreaks. The outbreaks mainly occurred from October to January of the following year, exhibiting seasonality. The exposed population was 43 503, with 414 reported cases, resulting in a total attack rate of 0.952%. The median incubation period of varicella was 12.39 (95%CI: 11.83 - 12.94) days, and the average serial interval was 14.05 (95%CI: 12.75 - 15.35) days. The R0 value was 3.74 ± 0.73, and the changing trend of Rt indicated that the spread of varicella in Ningbo city basically showed a trend of extinction around the 30th day.

Conclusions

The prevention and control measures for varicella outbreaks in Ningbo city are effective, with the overall epidemic trending towards extinction, and the control effect becoming prominent in the third generation of cases. Prevention and control should be strengthened to further establish herd immunity to reduce the peak of the epidemic and shorten its duration.

, authors=Zefeng SHI1, Dandan ZHANG2, Yan ZHANG2, Xuefei ZHAO2, Shanshan WANG3, Xingqiang PAN1, 2, authorsList=Zefeng SHI, Dandan ZHANG, Yan ZHANG, Xuefei ZHAO, Shanshan WANG, Xingqiang PAN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Shanshan WANG, Xingqiang PAN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
WANG Shanshan, E-mail:
PAN Xingqiang, E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2025 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1321169831341175090, articleId=1321169828631654694, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=2020—2023年宁波市水痘暴发疫情及其传播力分析, columnId=1321169758632923386, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=专题报道——传染病监测, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

分析2020—2023年浙江省宁波市水痘的传播力，为后续建立群体免疫屏障、制定水痘疫苗接种目标提供参考依据。

方法

回顾性分析2020—2023年宁波市发生的符合研究要求的水痘暴发疫情案例。基于宁波市的多起暴发疫情，使用数据计算或曲线拟合等方法提供模型需要的参数。计算出罹患率、潜伏期（Te）、代际间隔（Tg）、基本再生数（R0）、时变再生数（Rt）等重要流行参数。

结果

2020—2023年，宁波市每年水痘罹患率呈波浪上升趋势，共报告17起水痘公共卫生突发事件，均为校园暴发疫情。疫情主要发生在当年10月—次年1月，发病具有季节性。暴露人口43 503人，报告病例414例，总罹患率为0.952%。水痘发病平均潜伏期中位数为12.39（95%CI=11.83～12.94）d，平均代际间隔为14.05（95%CI=12.75～15.35）d。R0值为3.74±0.73，Rt变化趋势提示宁波市水痘疫情传播基本在第30 d左右时出现消亡趋势。

结论

宁波市水痘疫情的防控措施是有效的，疫情总体走向消亡，控制成效在第3代病例凸显。应强化防控，进一步建立群体免疫屏障，以降低流行高峰、缩短流行时间。

, authors=石泽峰1, 张丹丹2, 张琰2, 赵薛飞2, 王珊珊3, *, *, 潘兴强1, 2, *, *, authorsList=石泽峰, 张丹丹, 张琰, 赵薛飞, 王珊珊, 潘兴强, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=王珊珊, 潘兴强, authorNote=

石泽峰（1999—），硕士在读，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学

, correspAuthorsNote=
王珊珊，E-mail：
潘兴强，E-mail：
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Varicella incidence in Ningbo city from 2020 to 2023

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份疫情数/起病例数/例波及或
暴露数/人		总罹患
率/%		每起罹患率
[M（IQR）]/%		持续时间
[M（IQR）] /d		每起病例数
[M（IQR）]/例
2020519221 4170.8960.962（0.843，2.043）49.0（45.0，69.0）32.0（29.0，35.0）
202161019 4201.0721.214（0.731，1.762）28.5（24.5，38.5）16.5（13.3，20.5）
20224829 1880.8920.867（0.681，1.091）27.5（17.5，34.3）20.0（16.0，24.5）
20232393 4781.1211.226（0.931，1.521）40.0（28.5，51.5）19.5（16.3，22.8）
合计1741443 5030.9520.962（0.686，1.810）35.0（24.0，49.0）21.0（16.0，26.0）
), ArticleFig(id=1321169834755338604, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169828631654694, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2020—2023年宁波市水痘流行状况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份疫情数/起病例数/例波及或
暴露数/人		总罹患
率/%		每起罹患率
[M（IQR）]/%		持续时间
[M（IQR）] /d		每起病例数
[M（IQR）]/例
2020519221 4170.8960.962（0.843，2.043）49.0（45.0，69.0）32.0（29.0，35.0）
202161019 4201.0721.214（0.731，1.762）28.5（24.5，38.5）16.5（13.3，20.5）
20224829 1880.8920.867（0.681，1.091）27.5（17.5，34.3）20.0（16.0，24.5）
20232393 4781.1211.226（0.931，1.521）40.0（28.5，51.5）19.5（16.3，22.8）
合计1741443 5030.9520.962（0.686，1.810）35.0（24.0，49.0）21.0（16.0，26.0）
), ArticleFig(id=1321169834860196205, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169828631654694, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Distribution of varicella cases in Ningbo city in urban and urban-rural fringe area from 2020 to 2023

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地区疫情数/起病例数/例波及或暴露数/人总罹患率/%每起罹患率 [M（IQR）] /%
城市617721 2740.8321.142（0.605，1.815）
城乡接合部1123722 2291.0660.962（0.757，1.514）
合计1741443 5030.9520.962（0.686，1.810）
), ArticleFig(id=1321169834939887982, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169828631654694, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

2020—2023宁波市水痘发病地区分布

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地区疫情数/起病例数/例波及或暴露数/人总罹患率/%每起罹患率 [M（IQR）] /%
城市617721 2740.8321.142（0.605，1.815）
城乡接合部1123722 2291.0660.962（0.757，1.514）
合计1741443 5030.9520.962（0.686，1.810）
), ArticleFig(id=1321169835011191151, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169828631654694, language=EN, label=Tab.3, caption=

Calculation results of parameters related to the basic reproduction number

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年份疫情rR0
2020宁海县0.1503.570
北仑区0.1714.004
2021慈溪市0.1744.067
镇海区0.0712.101
北仑区0.1964.544
2022奉化区0.1794.174
2023宁海县0.1573.173
), ArticleFig(id=1321169835082494320, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169828631654694, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

基本再生数相关参数计算结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份疫情rR0
2020宁海县0.1503.570
北仑区0.1714.004
2021慈溪市0.1744.067
镇海区0.0712.101
北仑区0.1964.544
2022奉化区0.1794.174
2023宁海县0.1573.173
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2020—2023年宁波市水痘暴发疫情及其传播力分析
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石泽峰 1 , 张丹丹 2 , 张琰 2 , 赵薛飞 2 , 王珊珊 3, *, * , 潘兴强 1, 2, *, *
中国公共卫生 | 专题报道——传染病监测 2025,41(7): 787-791
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中国公共卫生 |专题报道——传染病监测 2025 , 41 (7) : 787 -791
2020—2023年宁波市水痘暴发疫情及其传播力分析
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石泽峰1, 张丹丹2, 张琰2, 赵薛飞2, 王珊珊3, *, * , 潘兴强1, 2, *, *
作者信息
  • 1宁波大学医学部公共卫生学院，宁波 315211
  • 2宁波市疾病预防控制中心，宁波 315010
  • 3宁波大学附属第一医院，宁波 315000
通讯作者:
王珊珊，E-mail：
潘兴强，E-mail：
作者简介:

石泽峰（1999—），硕士在读，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学

Varicella outbreak epidemics and their transmissibility in Ningbo city from 2020 to 2023: a retrospective study
Zefeng SHI1, Dandan ZHANG2, Yan ZHANG2, Xuefei ZHAO2, Shanshan WANG3 , Xingqiang PAN1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1School of Public Health, Health Science Center, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China
  • 2Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China
  • 3The First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo 315000, China
    • Corresponding Author:
    WANG Shanshan, E-mail:
    PAN Xingqiang, E-mail:
出版时间: 2025-07-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146704
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摘要
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目的

分析2020—2023年浙江省宁波市水痘的传播力，为后续建立群体免疫屏障、制定水痘疫苗接种目标提供参考依据。

方法

回顾性分析2020—2023年宁波市发生的符合研究要求的水痘暴发疫情案例。基于宁波市的多起暴发疫情，使用数据计算或曲线拟合等方法提供模型需要的参数。计算出罹患率、潜伏期（Te）、代际间隔（Tg）、基本再生数（R0）、时变再生数（Rt）等重要流行参数。

结果

2020—2023年，宁波市每年水痘罹患率呈波浪上升趋势，共报告17起水痘公共卫生突发事件，均为校园暴发疫情。疫情主要发生在当年10月—次年1月，发病具有季节性。暴露人口43 503人，报告病例414例，总罹患率为0.952%。水痘发病平均潜伏期中位数为12.39（95%CI=11.83～12.94）d，平均代际间隔为14.05（95%CI=12.75～15.35）d。R0值为3.74±0.73，Rt变化趋势提示宁波市水痘疫情传播基本在第30 d左右时出现消亡趋势。

结论

宁波市水痘疫情的防控措施是有效的，疫情总体走向消亡，控制成效在第3代病例凸显。应强化防控，进一步建立群体免疫屏障，以降低流行高峰、缩短流行时间。

水痘  /  动力学模型  /  基本再生数R0  /  时变再生数Rt  /  流行病学参数  /  宁波市
Objective

To analyze the transmissibility of varicella in Ningbo city from 2020 to 2023 and provide a reference for establishing herd immunity targets for varicella vaccination.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of varicella outbreak cases in Ningbo city from 2020 to 2023 that met the research criteria was conducted. Based on multiple outbreaks in Ningbo city, parameters required for the model were provided using data calculation or curve fitting methods. Important epidemic parameters such as attack rate, incubation period (Te), serial interval (Tg), basic reproduction number (R0), and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) were calculated.

Results

From 2020 to 2023, the annual varicella attack rate in Ningbo city showed a wave-like upward trend, with a total of 17 reported public health emergencies of varicella, all of which were school outbreaks. The outbreaks mainly occurred from October to January of the following year, exhibiting seasonality. The exposed population was 43 503, with 414 reported cases, resulting in a total attack rate of 0.952%. The median incubation period of varicella was 12.39 (95%CI: 11.83 - 12.94) days, and the average serial interval was 14.05 (95%CI: 12.75 - 15.35) days. The R0 value was 3.74 ± 0.73, and the changing trend of Rt indicated that the spread of varicella in Ningbo city basically showed a trend of extinction around the 30th day.

Conclusions

The prevention and control measures for varicella outbreaks in Ningbo city are effective, with the overall epidemic trending towards extinction, and the control effect becoming prominent in the third generation of cases. Prevention and control should be strengthened to further establish herd immunity to reduce the peak of the epidemic and shorten its duration.

varicella  /  dynamic model  /  basic reproduction number R0  /  time-varying reproduction number Rt  /  epidemiological parameters  /  Ningbo city
石泽峰, 张丹丹, 张琰, 赵薛飞, 王珊珊, 潘兴强. 2020—2023年宁波市水痘暴发疫情及其传播力分析. 中国公共卫生, 2025 , 41 (7) : 787 -791 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146704
Zefeng SHI, Dandan ZHANG, Yan ZHANG, Xuefei ZHAO, Shanshan WANG, Xingqiang PAN. Varicella outbreak epidemics and their transmissibility in Ningbo city from 2020 to 2023: a retrospective study[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2025 , 41 (7) : 787 -791 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146704
正文
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水痘（varicella）是由水痘—带状疱疹病毒（varicella zoster-virus, VZV）感染引起的一种急性呼吸道传染病，主要通过呼吸道飞沫传播或直接接触传播，传染性强，易引起暴发流行[1]，是引起学校等集体单位突发公共卫生事件的最主要传染病之一，且其导致的社会经济负担较重[2–3]。不同地区的气候、人口密度、行为习惯、社会经济状况等对水痘传播力影响较大[4–5]，因此水痘传播具有时空异质性的特征。人类是水痘带状疱疹病毒的唯一宿主，具有高度特异性。因此基于动力学模型的发展预测、措施评估和溯源已成为流行病学调查的重要方法[6–7]。基本再生数（basic reproduction number, R0）为在无干预情况下，完全易感人群中典型原发病例引起的继发感染病例数量，通常记作R0[8]，是衡量传染病传播力的一个重要指标；了解R0可以为构建水痘传播动力学模型提供本地参数，为建立群体免疫屏障制定接种率目标提供依据。本研究以2020—2023年宁波市的水痘病例数据为研究对象，估算基本再生数，并进一步计算时变再生数，以期为评估宁波市水痘的传播力提供新的证据。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　资料来源
通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统，按照发病时间收集2020—2023年宁波市水痘病例数据，包括患者的年龄、性别、现住址等基本信息，以及水痘发病信息等。
1.2　方法
结合水痘的发病进程，采用基于易感人群、潜伏人群、感染人群、恢复人群（SEIR模型）计算水痘传染病动力学相关参数，以评估宁波市水痘的传播力。选取具有清晰传播链的疫情计算基本再生数。基本再生数计算公式参照文献所述[9–10]：
$ \mathit{R}{{_0}=1+}\mathit{rTg}\mathrm{+}\mathit{\rho}\mathrm{(1-}\mathit{\rho}\mathrm{)(}\mathit{rTg}\mathrm{)}^{\mathrm{2}} $
其中，ρ为潜伏期与代际间隔之比，记ρ=Te/Tg，为潜伏期（incubation period，Te）占代际间隔（generation interval，Tg）的比例[10]。r为早期指数增长时的增长率，计算公式：
$ \mathit{r} \mathrm{=ln} \mathit{Y} \mathrm{(} \mathit{t} \mathrm{)/} \mathit{t} $
其中，Y（t）是截止到t时刻的感染人数。
选取有明确的一次性单源暴露病例的疫情，计算Te和Tg的值。Tg通过传播链中的连续病例发病日期之间的间隔时间估算。Te按文献[11]的方法，以观测确定每个病例最早和最晚的暴露时间到出现症状的时间间隔估计。本研究Te的估计区间为：[二代病例发病日期–(一代病例发病日期+恢复期时间)，二代病例发病日期–(一代病例发病日期–前驱期时间)]。
其中，前驱期通常为1～2 d，此期间内病例已具有传染性[12]；为方便计算，本研究前驱期取2 d、恢复期取7 d[13]。时变再生数（time-varying reproduction number, Rt）依托病例的发病时间数据直接计算，旨在定量评估水痘在不同时间点的传播能力。
1.3　统计分析
使用Python语言和Excel办公软件收集、清理和分析数据。采用中位数（median，M）和四分位数间距（inter quartile range, IQR）描述水痘突发公共卫生事件（public health emergency events, PHEE）的持续时间、罹患率、病例数等指标；以$\bar x \pm s $描述R0值，以P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。使用Python语言中的scipy.stats库，用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验，对Te和Tg的值进行gamma分布的拟合优度检验后，再使用Python语言中的scipy.stats库实现伽马曲线拟合，计算Te和Tg的平均值。使用Python语言中的scipy.stats库，采用Shapiro-Wilk检验，对R0值数据进行正态检验。使用matplotlib.pyplot库绘制时变再生数变化趋势图。
2　结　果
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2.1　水痘暴发疫情基本情况（表1）
2020—2023年，宁波市共10个区县市，发生17起水痘暴发疫情，均发生于学校，确诊病例共414例，其中有408名学生和6名教师，暴露43 503人，总罹患率0.952%（414/43 503）。无死亡病例报告，每起疫情病例均超过10例。
2.2　流行特征
2.2.1　地区分布（表2）
2020—2023年共暴发17起水痘疫情，其中城市6起（35.3%）、总罹患率0.832%（177/21 274），城乡接合部11起（64.7%）、总罹患率1.066%（237/22 229）高于城市地区，农村地区未发生水痘疫情。
2.2.2　季节分布（图1）
17起水痘疫情中，16起暴发于秋冬季节，主要集中于10月到次年1月；仅有1起暴发于春季的4月份，疫情暴发具有明显的季节性的特征。
2.3　关键参数计算
2.3.1　潜伏期（Te）和病例代际间隔时间（Tg）
17起暴发疫情中，78例为一次性单源暴露病例，涉及其中8起疫情。计算的平均潜伏期中位数为12.39（95%CI=11.83～12.94）d，分布的拟合优度检验差异无统计学意义（D=0.152，P>0.05），Te时长数据符合gamma分布。水痘发病日期有明显的代际间隔，17起疫情排除其中一起只发生一代代际传播外，平均代际间隔为14.05（95%CI=12.75～15.35）d，分布的拟合优度检验差异无统计学意义（D=0.146，P>0.05），Tg数据符合gamma分布。
2.3.2　基本再生数（R0）（表3）
通过计算得出ρ=0.882，各起疫情的基本再生数差异无统计学意义（w=0.826，P>0.05）。R0值分布符合正态分布，宁波市水痘感染R0为3.74±0.73。
2.3.3　时变再生数（Rt）（图2）
时变再生数变化趋势显示宁海县2起疫情分别在第34 d和第39 d时Rt<1；镇海区的一起疫情不断反复，最终在第50 d时Rt<1；慈溪市的一起疫情截止到24 d时Rt停止发生变化；北仑地区2起疫情分别在第29 d和31 d时Rt<1；而奉化地区的一起疫情则是在第31 d时Rt<1。
3　讨　论
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2020—2023年宁波市的多起水痘暴发疫情分析显示，发病地点和发病人群主要为学校与学生。根据《国家突发公共卫生事件应急预案》和《国家突发公共卫生事件相关信息报告管理工作规范（试行）》相关规定，水痘突发公共卫生事件判断标准为在同一学校、幼儿园等集体单位中发生10例及以上临床诊断或确诊水痘病例，所以以上暴发疫情均可被认定为水痘突发公共卫生事件[14]。分析表明，2020—2023年宁波市水痘暴发疫情主要集中在人口相对密集的城市和城乡接合部，而农村地区未发生一起水痘疫情，所波及或暴露人数则显示城市与城乡接合部地区基本持平；发病主要集中在当年10月至次年1月，具有明显的季节性的特征，发病时间与既往报道一致[15–16]，区别此次分析结果4—6月发病较少。
本研究计算宁波市水痘总罹患率（0.952%，414/43 503）低于王淼[14]等报道的华东地区水痘总罹患率（1.83%）；逐年的罹患率变化显示，虽然2020—2023年波及规模逐渐缩小，但每年罹患率呈波浪上升的趋势。平均潜伏期中位数为12.39（95%CI=11.83～12.94）d，处于国家卫生健康委发布的《水痘诊疗方案（2023年版）》中10～21 d的水痘潜伏期区间内[12]。观察发病日期发现有明显的代际间隔14.05（95%CI=12.75～15.35）d，与既往研究报道的水痘14 d左右代际间隔时间结果接近[17]。在不同地区，水痘的R0值不同。既往文献显示，欧洲国家水痘疫情的R0值在2.75～7.6，其中英格兰和威尔士最低（2.75）、荷兰最高（7.6）[18]；而亚太地区水痘的R0值存在着差异，如韩国为5.67（95%CI=5.33，6.33）[19]，中国江苏省则为（1.831±0.078）[20]，深圳不同年龄组R0值分别为0～3岁2.46、4～6岁6.47、7～12岁8.09、13～15岁6.60[21]。本研究宁波市的基本再生数（R0=3.74±0.73）与上述研究结果也有差异，可能与单起疫情中病例较少有关，且因本次研究收集数据的时间处于新冠疫情期间，宁波市采取了各种非药物干预措施，Xiao J P等[22]的一项基于中国广东省人群的大型观察性研究发现，因新冠疫情防控采取的措施呼吸道传染病减少达87.4%。本研究中宁波市的水痘R0提示，宁波市水痘传播力较高，需要尽快制定进一步的群体免疫屏障策略，以降低水痘给个人和社会带来的直接和间接经济损失，提高人群生命质量。
随着时间的推移，政府、学校等组织采取干预措施之后，再生数会发生实时变化，表明该传染病在人群中的传播能力变化。此时需采取时变再生数Rt来描述传染病传播能力的动态变化，更符合实际状况[23]。本研究结果显示，宁海县的水痘消亡日期（Rt<1）明显滞后于北仑地区和奉化地区，其中宁海地区和镇海地区的两起疫情前期Rt值已降低至1以下时，疫情后期Rt值又上升至1以上，显示疫情发生了反扑现象，表明疫情控制不到位；慈溪市的一起疫情因为学校对班级采取了严格的隔离干预措施，使得时变再生数Rt停止变化。因时变再生数Rt的值总体均呈现逐渐减小的趋势，且大多在第30 d左右时Rt值降低在1以下，说明疫情总体发展趋势均逐渐走向消亡；而基于平均代际间隔结果，可认为宁波市水痘暴发疫情的控制成效主要显现在第3代病例上，即从第3代病例开始，人群中水痘的传播得到有效控制，Rt值小于1，该起疫情将趋于结束。
综上，宁波市可从切断传染病传播的流行过程入手，应尽早发现传染源，尽快实施隔离和治疗病例，及时通风、消杀疫源地，切断传播途径；采取应急接种疫苗等措施保护易感人群。要尽可能在更早一代的传播病例上进行有效控制，降低流行高峰、缩短流行时间。

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2025年第41卷第7期
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doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146704
  • 接收时间：2024-12-18
  • 首发时间：2026-10-25
  • 出版时间：2025-07-10
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  • 收稿日期：2024-12-18
  • 修回日期：2025-03-04
  • 录用日期：2025-05-16
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    1宁波大学医学部公共卫生学院，宁波 315211
    2宁波市疾病预防控制中心，宁波 315010
    3宁波大学附属第一医院，宁波 315000

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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