Article(id=1321169806561231707, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1321169735128043598, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1146582, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1735833600000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-03, revisedDate=1739462400000, revisedDateStr=2025-02-14, acceptedDate=1744387200000, acceptedDateStr=2025-04-12, onlineDate=1792921028031, onlineDateStr=2026-10-25, pubDate=1752076800000, pubDateStr=2025-07-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792921028031, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-25, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792921028031, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792921028031, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1321169735128043598, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2025', volume='41', issue='7', pageStart='769', pageEnd='896', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1752076800000', pubDateStr='2025-07-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792921011000, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792921011000, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=841, endPage=847, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1321169806754169692, articleId=1321169806561231707, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Construction of a public health risk assessment index system for emergency water pollution incidents, columnId=1320427686514770171, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Survey and Report, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To construct a public health risk assessment index system for sudden water pollution incidents to provide a reference tool for conducting public health risk assessments of such incidents.

Methods

An initial index list was established through literature review and group discussions. A two-round Delphi expert consultation method was employed to evaluate and screen the indicators, and a comprehensive integration empowerment method was used to calculate indicator weights.

Results

The expert positive coefficients for the two rounds of consultation were 83.33% and 100.00%, respectively, and the authority coefficients were (0.79 ± 0.11) and (0.82 ± 0.08), respectively. The overall Kendall′s W values were 0.250 and 0.460 (both P < 0.001). Finally, 4 first-level indicators, 17 second-level indicators, and 66 third-level indicators were established. The top three third-level indicators by weight were the speed of emergency resource allocation (0.049 9), regular monitoring of drinking water quality by the jurisdictional water quality supervision department with monitoring items covering the conventional indicators listed in GB 5749 - 2022 (0.044 4), and the professional and technical level of emergency personnel (0.039 1).

Conclusions

The constructed public health risk assessment index system for sudden water pollution incidents provides a reference for the health emergency response to water pollution incidents.

, authors=Yanjun REN, Hong XU, Tao JIN, Ye LYU, Shanshan XU, Bing GAO, Chaokang LI, authorsList=Yanjun REN, Hong XU, Tao JIN, Ye LYU, Shanshan XU, Bing GAO, Chaokang LI, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Hong XU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
XU Hong, E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2025 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1321169807144239965, articleId=1321169806561231707, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标体系构建, columnId=1320427686770622717, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=调查报告与分析, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

构建突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标体系,为开展突发事件的公共卫生风险评估提供参考工具。

方法

通过文献研究和小组讨论建立指标清单,采用两轮德尔菲专家咨询法评价和筛选指标,利用综合集成赋权法计算指标权重。

结果

两轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为83.33%和100.00%,权威系数分别为(0.79±0.11)和(0.82±0.08),总体Kendall′s W分别为0.250和0.460(均P<0.001)。最终确立4个一级指标、17个二级指标和66个三级指标。指标权重居前3位的三级指标依次是应急资源调配速率(0.049 9)、辖区水质监管部门定期开展生活饮用水水质监测且监测项目覆盖GB 5749—2022所列的常规指标(0.044 4)和应急人员专业技术水平(0.039 1)。

结论

构建的突发水污染事件公共卫生风险指标体系为水污染事件的卫生应急处置提供参考依据。

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任艳军(1980—),主任医师,硕士,研究方向:疾病预防与控制

, correspAuthorsNote=
徐虹,E-mail:
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Degree of concentration and coordination of expert opinions in two rounds

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标条目数重要性可行性敏感性
均数变异系数Kendall′s W均数变异系数Kendall′s W均数变异系数Kendall′s W
第1轮
一级指标48.47~8.930.12~0.140.087a7.40~8.530.14~0.280.1997.87~8.600.13~0.180.120
二级指标187.47~9.000.09~0.210.4007.00~9.000.12~0.320.4707.07~8.870.13~0.220.327
三级指标815.93~9.000.11~0.530.2596.20~9.070.10~0.510.2985.29~8.930.11~0.560.262
合计1035.93~9.000.09~0.530.2766.20~9.070.10~0.510.3145.29~8.930.11~0.560.261
第2轮
一级指标48.27~9.070.03~0.090.4217.73~8.800.10~0.120.4487.80~8.670.07~0.120.430
二级指标177.67~9.200.04~0.110.6847.20~9.000.06~0.170.6027.33~9.000.06~0.120.588
三级指标667.40~9.200.04~0.130.4347.40~9.070.05~0.150.4697.13~9.000.05~0.130.485
合计877.40~9.200.03~0.130.4787.20~9.070.10~0.170.4997.13~9.000.05~0.130.495
), ArticleFig(id=1321169813964178321, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169806561231707, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

两轮专家咨询意见的集中程度和协调程度

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标条目数重要性可行性敏感性
均数变异系数Kendall′s W均数变异系数Kendall′s W均数变异系数Kendall′s W
第1轮
一级指标48.47~8.930.12~0.140.087a7.40~8.530.14~0.280.1997.87~8.600.13~0.180.120
二级指标187.47~9.000.09~0.210.4007.00~9.000.12~0.320.4707.07~8.870.13~0.220.327
三级指标815.93~9.000.11~0.530.2596.20~9.070.10~0.510.2985.29~8.930.11~0.560.262
合计1035.93~9.000.09~0.530.2766.20~9.070.10~0.510.3145.29~8.930.11~0.560.261
第2轮
一级指标48.27~9.070.03~0.090.4217.73~8.800.10~0.120.4487.80~8.670.07~0.120.430
二级指标177.67~9.200.04~0.110.6847.20~9.000.06~0.170.6027.33~9.000.06~0.120.588
三级指标667.40~9.200.04~0.130.4347.40~9.070.05~0.150.4697.13~9.000.05~0.130.485
合计877.40~9.200.03~0.130.4787.20~9.070.10~0.170.4997.13~9.000.05~0.130.495
), ArticleFig(id=1321169814064841618, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169806561231707, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Index adjustment of the two rounds of expert consultation

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
轮次调整前指标调整情况调整后指标修改依据
第1轮经济损失删除可行性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
近1年水源水污染物浓度监测不合格率删除重要性和敏感性评分不达标
慢性中毒删除可行性和敏感性评分不达标
对睡眠质量的影响删除重要性和可行性和敏感性评分均不达标
洪涝灾害后的心理和行为应激水平删除重要性、可行性和敏感性评分均不达标
水源种类复杂删除可行性和敏感性评分不达标
人口流动性删除重要性、可行性和敏感性评分均不达标
辖区人口密度删除重要性和可行性评分不达标
辖区预防相关疾病的疫苗接种率删除重要性、可行性和敏感性评分均不达标
人群受教育程度删除可行性和敏感性评分不达标
水质信息公开制度及执行删除可行性和敏感性评分不达标
饮用水不安全的担心、焦虑和恐惧删除敏感性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
水污染造成城市饮用水处理需付出的额外成本删除可行性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
城市居民因担心水污染影响健康而采用家庭自来水净化防护措施的成本删除敏感性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
水污染的应对技能删除可行性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
应急响应效率删除可行性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
应急资源共享整合能力删除可行性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
5年内发生水污染相关的投诉举报删除专家认为投诉举报应经过核实,小组讨论后删除
当地近3年水源水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势修改当地近5年水源水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势专家建议污染物浓度监测时限和外部反应性时限一致,
小组讨论后统一修改为5年
当地近3年生活饮用水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势修改当地近5年生活饮用水污染物监测
浓度的变化趋势
专家建议污染物浓度监测时限和外部反应性时限一致,
小组讨论后统一修改为5年
近1年生活饮用水污染物浓度监测不合格率修改近5年生活饮用水污染物浓度监测
不合格率
专家建议污染物浓度监测时限和外部反应性时限一致,小组讨论后统一修改为5年
二次供水消毒剂指标在线实时监测修改二次供水消毒剂指标在线实时监测且定期计量认证专家认为在线监测仪需要定期计量认证,
小组讨论后修改
5年内发生突发水污染事件修改近5年内发生突发水污染事件的数量专家认为5年内突发水污染事件的发生数量可以更好
反映极端天气事件如洪涝台风的影响程度和地区应对
能力,小组讨论后通过修改
健康宣教力度修改应急信息传播/发布力度专家建议修改,小组讨论后修改
应急资源(人财物)储备情况修改应急资源储备情况专家认为表述存在重复,小组讨论后修改
增加辖区人口数专家建议增加,小组讨论通过
增加应急供水能力专家认为应急供水能力是应急响应的重要环节,
建议增加,小组讨论通过
第2轮二次供水消毒剂指标在线实时监测且定期计量认证修改二次供水消毒剂指标在线实时监测且定期检定校准专家建议修改,小组讨论后修改
 排水管与污水管相连修改排水管与污水管不相连专家建议修改,小组讨论后修改
), ArticleFig(id=1321169814152922003, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169806561231707, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

两轮专家咨询的指标调整情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
轮次调整前指标调整情况调整后指标修改依据
第1轮经济损失删除可行性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
近1年水源水污染物浓度监测不合格率删除重要性和敏感性评分不达标
慢性中毒删除可行性和敏感性评分不达标
对睡眠质量的影响删除重要性和可行性和敏感性评分均不达标
洪涝灾害后的心理和行为应激水平删除重要性、可行性和敏感性评分均不达标
水源种类复杂删除可行性和敏感性评分不达标
人口流动性删除重要性、可行性和敏感性评分均不达标
辖区人口密度删除重要性和可行性评分不达标
辖区预防相关疾病的疫苗接种率删除重要性、可行性和敏感性评分均不达标
人群受教育程度删除可行性和敏感性评分不达标
水质信息公开制度及执行删除可行性和敏感性评分不达标
饮用水不安全的担心、焦虑和恐惧删除敏感性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
水污染造成城市饮用水处理需付出的额外成本删除可行性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
城市居民因担心水污染影响健康而采用家庭自来水净化防护措施的成本删除敏感性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
水污染的应对技能删除可行性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
应急响应效率删除可行性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
应急资源共享整合能力删除可行性评分不达标,小组讨论后删除
5年内发生水污染相关的投诉举报删除专家认为投诉举报应经过核实,小组讨论后删除
当地近3年水源水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势修改当地近5年水源水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势专家建议污染物浓度监测时限和外部反应性时限一致,
小组讨论后统一修改为5年
当地近3年生活饮用水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势修改当地近5年生活饮用水污染物监测
浓度的变化趋势
专家建议污染物浓度监测时限和外部反应性时限一致,
小组讨论后统一修改为5年
近1年生活饮用水污染物浓度监测不合格率修改近5年生活饮用水污染物浓度监测
不合格率
专家建议污染物浓度监测时限和外部反应性时限一致,小组讨论后统一修改为5年
二次供水消毒剂指标在线实时监测修改二次供水消毒剂指标在线实时监测且定期计量认证专家认为在线监测仪需要定期计量认证,
小组讨论后修改
5年内发生突发水污染事件修改近5年内发生突发水污染事件的数量专家认为5年内突发水污染事件的发生数量可以更好
反映极端天气事件如洪涝台风的影响程度和地区应对
能力,小组讨论后通过修改
健康宣教力度修改应急信息传播/发布力度专家建议修改,小组讨论后修改
应急资源(人财物)储备情况修改应急资源储备情况专家认为表述存在重复,小组讨论后修改
增加辖区人口数专家建议增加,小组讨论通过
增加应急供水能力专家认为应急供水能力是应急响应的重要环节,
建议增加,小组讨论通过
第2轮二次供水消毒剂指标在线实时监测且定期计量认证修改二次供水消毒剂指标在线实时监测且定期检定校准专家建议修改,小组讨论后修改
 排水管与污水管相连修改排水管与污水管不相连专家建议修改,小组讨论后修改
), ArticleFig(id=1321169814249390996, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169806561231707, language=EN, label=Tab.3, caption=

Scoring and weighting of the public health risk assessment index system for emergency water pollution incidents

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标内容重要性/分可行性/分敏感性/分综合得分/分专家评分权重熵权法权重综合权重
1 可能性8.878.278.208.510.380 60.372 90.373 4
1.1 污染物监测浓度9.008.678.678.850.046 00.052 00.052 8
1.1.1 当地近5年水源水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势8.608.878.138.510.015 40.026 40.026 8
1.1.2 当地近5年生活饮用水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势8.679.008.208.590.015 50.017 60.018 0
1.1.3 近5年生活饮用水污染物浓度监测不合格率8.278.938.078.350.015 10.008 00.008 0
1.2 污染源9.078.008.608.740.093 40.079 00.080 9
1.2.1 洪涝灾害引起水源污染物种类或数量增多8.338.078.538.310.015 00.017 80.017 6
1.2.2 水源上游存在工农业和生活污染9.008.538.538.760.015 80.017 70.018 4
1.2.3 水源受人为因素 (如投毒或交通事故)污染9.008.408.608.800.015 90.015 60.016 3
1.2.4 水厂区30 m范围内存在污染源,生产区外围30米范围内有生活居住区、渗水厕所
   和垃圾堆放场等
8.878.938.478.730.015 80.009 10.009 5
1.2.5 供水设施周围15米内存在污水井、化粪池等污染源8.738.678.338.580.015 50.010 60.010 8
1.2.6 二次供水水箱/蓄水池10 m范围内存在污染源8.608.538.408.520.015 40.008 20.008 3
1.3 水厂处理工艺8.678.878.278.610.105 30.114 10.113 0
1.3.1 根据水源水质情况配置了适宜的净水工艺且设施工作正常9.009.078.808.990.016 30.008 70.009 3
1.3.2 有消毒设备且能正常使用,正确选用消毒剂,并在供水期间连续投加且准确计量8.879.078.538.810.015 90.017 90.018 8
1.3.3 按规定清洗和维护水处理设施和设备,并按要求更换水处理材料8.678.808.338.650.015 60.025 10.025 8
1.3.4 水厂设计处理能力大于实际供水规模7.808.277.607.840.014 20.020 50.019 2
1.3.5 涉水产品批件资质与许可8.138.807.608.040.014 50.014 70.014 0
1.3.6 人员考核培训制度8.138.407.207.810.014 10.010 70.009 9
1.3.7 具有备用水源8.278.338.008.150.014 70.016 50.016 0
1.4 输配管网8.608.478.208.390.060 50.067 70.068 0
1.4.1 输配水管选材适宜8.338.937.808.310.015 00.014 90.014 7
1.4.2 输配管道定期巡查、检修和保养8.408.607.808.270.015 00.020 50.020 3
1.4.3 配水管网漏损率低于20%8.138.407.878.090.014 60.010 30.009 9
1.4.4 排水管与污水管不相连9.008.538.608.790.015 90.022 00.023 1
1.5 二次供水8.678.878.338.570.075 40.060 10.058 7
1.5.1 二次供水水箱定期清洗消毒9.138.938.679.000.016 30.007 00.007 5
1.5.2 二次供水消毒剂指标在线实时监测且定期校准维护8.478.278.138.310.015 00.009 40.009 3
1.5.3 二次供水泵房环境状况8.078.677.808.180.014 80.011 50.011 2
1.5.4 设有透气管、溢水管和泄水管并装有溢水孔网罩8.408.808.008.360.015 10.009 50.009 5
1.5.5 清洗消毒人员持健康证上岗8.078.537.207.840.014 20.022 70.021 2
2 危害性9.078.808.678.930.105 00.081 00.081 1
2.1 水体感官异常9.079.009.009.030.032 20.027 10.029 0
2.1.1 水源水出现浑浊、红虫、异味8.678.808.678.700.015 70.010 40.010 8
2.1.2 龙头水出现浑浊、红虫、异味9.209.079.009.130.016 50.016 70.018 2
2.2 水污染相关疾病8.937.878.538.570.045 50.038 70.038 5
2.2.1 介水传染病病例数量8.938.278.608.650.015 60.011 10.011 4
2.2.2 经皮肤急性中毒8.607.478.278.200.014 80.015 70.015 3
2.2.3 经口急性中毒8.807.478.408.330.015 10.011 90.011 8
2.3 人群心理健康7.877.207.607.590.027 30.015 20.013 6
2.3.1 对突发水污染事件的接受程度7.677.607.277.510.013 60.008 40.007 5
2.3.2 对政府处理事件能力的信任程度8.007.537.207.570.013 70.006 80.006 1
3 脆弱性8.277.737.878.010.178 10.149 60.144 6
3.1 监测能力9.139.008.879.040.031 90.015 90.016 8
3.1.1 水污染物实时监测9.078.608.878.940.016 20.008 50.009 1
3.1.2 常规污染物监测指标数量8.608.938.478.670.015 70.007 40.007 7
3.2 污染物消除9.208.278.808.930.031 90.026 90.028 2
3.2.1 水处理工艺能解决原水的主要污染物9.008.808.678.910.016 10.009 80.010 4
3.2.2 在传统工艺基础上,增加深度净化处理工艺如混凝沉淀、臭氧活性炭等8.738.478.608.720.015 80.017 10.017 8
3.3 外部反应性7.737.537.737.810.042 20.048 00.044 2
3.3.1 近5年内发生突发水污染事件的数量8.138.537.878.220.014 90.010 20.010 0
3.3.2 近5年内水污染相关的媒体新闻负面报道7.607.937.337.620.013 80.029 80.027 1
3.3.3 近5年内水污染相关的行政处罚7.407.937.137.440.013 50.008 00.007 1
3.4人群易感性7.877.477.537.700.029 60.016 80.016 4
3.4.1.辖区脆弱人群(老年人、儿童、孕妇、慢性病人等)比例8.477.877.808.140.014 70.006 00.005 8
3.4.2 辖区常住人口数8.138.677.808.230.014 90.010 80.010 6
3.5人群适应性7.677.277.337.510.042 50.042 00.039 0
3.5.1 生活饮水习惯8.278.078.078.190.014 80.012 30.012 0
3.5.2 水污染危害知识的掌握情况8.137.537.807.900.014 30.012 90.012 2
3.5.3 人群对安全防范体系的信赖程度7.607.407.137.400.013 40.016 80.014 8
4 可控性8.677.877.808.110.320 40.369 30.372 8
4.1 水质监管9.078.808.278.780.091 00.100 90.101 4
4.1.1 划定水源一级防护区并有完善的巡查记录8.538.937.938.430.015 30.026 20.026 4
4.1.2 1000 m3/d以上水厂具有水质实验室并定期开展水质检测8.607.937.938.190.014 80.006 50.006 3
4.1.3 自检或小型水厂进行定期送样检测且采样、送检记录完整8.538.207.938.200.014 80.005 60.005 5
4.1.4 辖区水质监管部门具有GB5749—2022所列常规和扩展项目的检测能力8.478.678.208.390.015 20.010 60.010 6
4.1.5 辖区水质监管部门定期开展生活饮用水水质监测,监测项目覆盖
   GB5749—2022所列的常规指标
8.538.538.278.480.015 30.044 00.044 4
4.1.6 饮用水污染物快速检测能力8.878.278.408.620.015 60.008 00.008 2
4.2 预警体系9.138.608.678.950.077 20.069 30.070 7
4.2.1 制定突发水污染事件的应急预案8.878.808.538.730.015 80.026 70.027 8
4.2.2 预案可操作性、完整性和演练情况8.808.408.408.590.015 50.009 20.009 4
4.2.3 对重点风险的主动监控力度8.808.208.678.660.015 70.009 50.009 8
4.2.4 突发事件报告及时性、完整性和准确性8.878.608.278.650.015 60.010 70.011 0
4.2.5 前期预报结果回溯评价8.208.207.738.060.014 60.013 20.012 7
4.3 应急响应8.878.608.478.700.090 60.078 00.077 6
4.3.1 突发水污染应急管理联动机制8.878.408.478.670.015 70.021 70.022 5
4.3.2 事件性质研判时间效率8.937.938.738.670.015 70.006 60.006 8
4.3.3 预案执行程度8.678.008.138.360.015 10.008 30.008 3
4.3.4 群众疏散安置率8.207.737.937.990.014 50.017 00.016 2
4.3.5 病患应急转运与救治能力8.338.278.078.200.014 80.010 50.010 2
4.3.6 应急信息传播/发布力度8.278.207.938.170.014 80.013 90.013 6
4.3.7 应急供水能力8.938.208.408.580.015 50.027 30.027 9
4.4 资源保障8.678.278.078.360.061 60.121 10.123 1
4.4.1 应急资源储备情况8.938.878.408.730.015 80.020 50.021 3
4.4.2 应急资源调配速率8.538.538.478.530.015 40.049 20.049 9
4.4.3 应急人员专业技术水平8.608.538.338.530.015 40.038 50.039 1
4.4.4 法规政策保障情况8.478.338.008.280.015 00.012 90.012 8
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突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标体系的得分与权重

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标内容重要性/分可行性/分敏感性/分综合得分/分专家评分权重熵权法权重综合权重
1 可能性8.878.278.208.510.380 60.372 90.373 4
1.1 污染物监测浓度9.008.678.678.850.046 00.052 00.052 8
1.1.1 当地近5年水源水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势8.608.878.138.510.015 40.026 40.026 8
1.1.2 当地近5年生活饮用水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势8.679.008.208.590.015 50.017 60.018 0
1.1.3 近5年生活饮用水污染物浓度监测不合格率8.278.938.078.350.015 10.008 00.008 0
1.2 污染源9.078.008.608.740.093 40.079 00.080 9
1.2.1 洪涝灾害引起水源污染物种类或数量增多8.338.078.538.310.015 00.017 80.017 6
1.2.2 水源上游存在工农业和生活污染9.008.538.538.760.015 80.017 70.018 4
1.2.3 水源受人为因素 (如投毒或交通事故)污染9.008.408.608.800.015 90.015 60.016 3
1.2.4 水厂区30 m范围内存在污染源,生产区外围30米范围内有生活居住区、渗水厕所
   和垃圾堆放场等
8.878.938.478.730.015 80.009 10.009 5
1.2.5 供水设施周围15米内存在污水井、化粪池等污染源8.738.678.338.580.015 50.010 60.010 8
1.2.6 二次供水水箱/蓄水池10 m范围内存在污染源8.608.538.408.520.015 40.008 20.008 3
1.3 水厂处理工艺8.678.878.278.610.105 30.114 10.113 0
1.3.1 根据水源水质情况配置了适宜的净水工艺且设施工作正常9.009.078.808.990.016 30.008 70.009 3
1.3.2 有消毒设备且能正常使用,正确选用消毒剂,并在供水期间连续投加且准确计量8.879.078.538.810.015 90.017 90.018 8
1.3.3 按规定清洗和维护水处理设施和设备,并按要求更换水处理材料8.678.808.338.650.015 60.025 10.025 8
1.3.4 水厂设计处理能力大于实际供水规模7.808.277.607.840.014 20.020 50.019 2
1.3.5 涉水产品批件资质与许可8.138.807.608.040.014 50.014 70.014 0
1.3.6 人员考核培训制度8.138.407.207.810.014 10.010 70.009 9
1.3.7 具有备用水源8.278.338.008.150.014 70.016 50.016 0
1.4 输配管网8.608.478.208.390.060 50.067 70.068 0
1.4.1 输配水管选材适宜8.338.937.808.310.015 00.014 90.014 7
1.4.2 输配管道定期巡查、检修和保养8.408.607.808.270.015 00.020 50.020 3
1.4.3 配水管网漏损率低于20%8.138.407.878.090.014 60.010 30.009 9
1.4.4 排水管与污水管不相连9.008.538.608.790.015 90.022 00.023 1
1.5 二次供水8.678.878.338.570.075 40.060 10.058 7
1.5.1 二次供水水箱定期清洗消毒9.138.938.679.000.016 30.007 00.007 5
1.5.2 二次供水消毒剂指标在线实时监测且定期校准维护8.478.278.138.310.015 00.009 40.009 3
1.5.3 二次供水泵房环境状况8.078.677.808.180.014 80.011 50.011 2
1.5.4 设有透气管、溢水管和泄水管并装有溢水孔网罩8.408.808.008.360.015 10.009 50.009 5
1.5.5 清洗消毒人员持健康证上岗8.078.537.207.840.014 20.022 70.021 2
2 危害性9.078.808.678.930.105 00.081 00.081 1
2.1 水体感官异常9.079.009.009.030.032 20.027 10.029 0
2.1.1 水源水出现浑浊、红虫、异味8.678.808.678.700.015 70.010 40.010 8
2.1.2 龙头水出现浑浊、红虫、异味9.209.079.009.130.016 50.016 70.018 2
2.2 水污染相关疾病8.937.878.538.570.045 50.038 70.038 5
2.2.1 介水传染病病例数量8.938.278.608.650.015 60.011 10.011 4
2.2.2 经皮肤急性中毒8.607.478.278.200.014 80.015 70.015 3
2.2.3 经口急性中毒8.807.478.408.330.015 10.011 90.011 8
2.3 人群心理健康7.877.207.607.590.027 30.015 20.013 6
2.3.1 对突发水污染事件的接受程度7.677.607.277.510.013 60.008 40.007 5
2.3.2 对政府处理事件能力的信任程度8.007.537.207.570.013 70.006 80.006 1
3 脆弱性8.277.737.878.010.178 10.149 60.144 6
3.1 监测能力9.139.008.879.040.031 90.015 90.016 8
3.1.1 水污染物实时监测9.078.608.878.940.016 20.008 50.009 1
3.1.2 常规污染物监测指标数量8.608.938.478.670.015 70.007 40.007 7
3.2 污染物消除9.208.278.808.930.031 90.026 90.028 2
3.2.1 水处理工艺能解决原水的主要污染物9.008.808.678.910.016 10.009 80.010 4
3.2.2 在传统工艺基础上,增加深度净化处理工艺如混凝沉淀、臭氧活性炭等8.738.478.608.720.015 80.017 10.017 8
3.3 外部反应性7.737.537.737.810.042 20.048 00.044 2
3.3.1 近5年内发生突发水污染事件的数量8.138.537.878.220.014 90.010 20.010 0
3.3.2 近5年内水污染相关的媒体新闻负面报道7.607.937.337.620.013 80.029 80.027 1
3.3.3 近5年内水污染相关的行政处罚7.407.937.137.440.013 50.008 00.007 1
3.4人群易感性7.877.477.537.700.029 60.016 80.016 4
3.4.1.辖区脆弱人群(老年人、儿童、孕妇、慢性病人等)比例8.477.877.808.140.014 70.006 00.005 8
3.4.2 辖区常住人口数8.138.677.808.230.014 90.010 80.010 6
3.5人群适应性7.677.277.337.510.042 50.042 00.039 0
3.5.1 生活饮水习惯8.278.078.078.190.014 80.012 30.012 0
3.5.2 水污染危害知识的掌握情况8.137.537.807.900.014 30.012 90.012 2
3.5.3 人群对安全防范体系的信赖程度7.607.407.137.400.013 40.016 80.014 8
4 可控性8.677.877.808.110.320 40.369 30.372 8
4.1 水质监管9.078.808.278.780.091 00.100 90.101 4
4.1.1 划定水源一级防护区并有完善的巡查记录8.538.937.938.430.015 30.026 20.026 4
4.1.2 1000 m3/d以上水厂具有水质实验室并定期开展水质检测8.607.937.938.190.014 80.006 50.006 3
4.1.3 自检或小型水厂进行定期送样检测且采样、送检记录完整8.538.207.938.200.014 80.005 60.005 5
4.1.4 辖区水质监管部门具有GB5749—2022所列常规和扩展项目的检测能力8.478.678.208.390.015 20.010 60.010 6
4.1.5 辖区水质监管部门定期开展生活饮用水水质监测,监测项目覆盖
   GB5749—2022所列的常规指标
8.538.538.278.480.015 30.044 00.044 4
4.1.6 饮用水污染物快速检测能力8.878.278.408.620.015 60.008 00.008 2
4.2 预警体系9.138.608.678.950.077 20.069 30.070 7
4.2.1 制定突发水污染事件的应急预案8.878.808.538.730.015 80.026 70.027 8
4.2.2 预案可操作性、完整性和演练情况8.808.408.408.590.015 50.009 20.009 4
4.2.3 对重点风险的主动监控力度8.808.208.678.660.015 70.009 50.009 8
4.2.4 突发事件报告及时性、完整性和准确性8.878.608.278.650.015 60.010 70.011 0
4.2.5 前期预报结果回溯评价8.208.207.738.060.014 60.013 20.012 7
4.3 应急响应8.878.608.478.700.090 60.078 00.077 6
4.3.1 突发水污染应急管理联动机制8.878.408.478.670.015 70.021 70.022 5
4.3.2 事件性质研判时间效率8.937.938.738.670.015 70.006 60.006 8
4.3.3 预案执行程度8.678.008.138.360.015 10.008 30.008 3
4.3.4 群众疏散安置率8.207.737.937.990.014 50.017 00.016 2
4.3.5 病患应急转运与救治能力8.338.278.078.200.014 80.010 50.010 2
4.3.6 应急信息传播/发布力度8.278.207.938.170.014 80.013 90.013 6
4.3.7 应急供水能力8.938.208.408.580.015 50.027 30.027 9
4.4 资源保障8.678.278.078.360.061 60.121 10.123 1
4.4.1 应急资源储备情况8.938.878.408.730.015 80.020 50.021 3
4.4.2 应急资源调配速率8.538.538.478.530.015 40.049 20.049 9
4.4.3 应急人员专业技术水平8.608.538.338.530.015 40.038 50.039 1
4.4.4 法规政策保障情况8.478.338.008.280.015 00.012 90.012 8
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突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标体系构建
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任艳军 , 徐虹 *, * , 金涛 , 吕烨 , 徐珊珊 , 高兵 , 李朝康
中国公共卫生 | 调查报告与分析 2025,41(7): 841-847
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中国公共卫生 |调查报告与分析 2025 , 41 (7) : 841 -847
突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标体系构建
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任艳军, 徐虹*, * , 金涛, 吕烨, 徐珊珊, 高兵, 李朝康
作者信息
  • 杭州市疾病预防控制中心(杭州市卫生监督所)健康危害因素监测所,杭州 310021
通讯作者:
徐虹,E-mail:
作者简介:

任艳军(1980—),主任医师,硕士,研究方向:疾病预防与控制

Construction of a public health risk assessment index system for emergency water pollution incidents
Yanjun REN, Hong XU , Tao JIN, Ye LYU, Shanshan XU, Bing GAO, Chaokang LI
Affiliations
  • Hangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Hangzhou Health Supervision Institute), Hangzhou 310021, China
  • Corresponding Author:
    XU Hong, E-mail:
出版时间: 2025-07-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146582
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目的

构建突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标体系,为开展突发事件的公共卫生风险评估提供参考工具。

方法

通过文献研究和小组讨论建立指标清单,采用两轮德尔菲专家咨询法评价和筛选指标,利用综合集成赋权法计算指标权重。

结果

两轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为83.33%和100.00%,权威系数分别为(0.79±0.11)和(0.82±0.08),总体Kendall′s W分别为0.250和0.460(均P<0.001)。最终确立4个一级指标、17个二级指标和66个三级指标。指标权重居前3位的三级指标依次是应急资源调配速率(0.049 9)、辖区水质监管部门定期开展生活饮用水水质监测且监测项目覆盖GB 5749—2022所列的常规指标(0.044 4)和应急人员专业技术水平(0.039 1)。

结论

构建的突发水污染事件公共卫生风险指标体系为水污染事件的卫生应急处置提供参考依据。

水污染  /  突发事件  /  公共卫生  /  风险评估  /  指标体系  /  德尔菲法
Objective

To construct a public health risk assessment index system for sudden water pollution incidents to provide a reference tool for conducting public health risk assessments of such incidents.

Methods

An initial index list was established through literature review and group discussions. A two-round Delphi expert consultation method was employed to evaluate and screen the indicators, and a comprehensive integration empowerment method was used to calculate indicator weights.

Results

The expert positive coefficients for the two rounds of consultation were 83.33% and 100.00%, respectively, and the authority coefficients were (0.79 ± 0.11) and (0.82 ± 0.08), respectively. The overall Kendall′s W values were 0.250 and 0.460 (both P < 0.001). Finally, 4 first-level indicators, 17 second-level indicators, and 66 third-level indicators were established. The top three third-level indicators by weight were the speed of emergency resource allocation (0.049 9), regular monitoring of drinking water quality by the jurisdictional water quality supervision department with monitoring items covering the conventional indicators listed in GB 5749 - 2022 (0.044 4), and the professional and technical level of emergency personnel (0.039 1).

Conclusions

The constructed public health risk assessment index system for sudden water pollution incidents provides a reference for the health emergency response to water pollution incidents.

water pollution  /  emergencies  /  public health  /  risk assessment  /  index system  /  Delphi method
任艳军, 徐虹, 金涛, 吕烨, 徐珊珊, 高兵, 李朝康. 突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标体系构建. 中国公共卫生, 2025 , 41 (7) : 841 -847 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146582
Yanjun REN, Hong XU, Tao JIN, Ye LYU, Shanshan XU, Bing GAO, Chaokang LI. Construction of a public health risk assessment index system for emergency water pollution incidents[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2025 , 41 (7) : 841 -847 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146582
近年来我国突发水污染事件时有发生,引起政府和社会广泛关注[1]。公共卫生风险评估是对相关风险系统的识别、分析和评价过程,是突发事件应急管理的重要环节[2–3]。目前突发事件的公共卫生风险评估工具较少,基于美国国家环境保护局(EPA)“四步法”的环境健康风险评估可以测量水污染事件的人群危害性[4],但无法从可能性、脆弱性和可控性等多层面把握总体风险。德尔菲(Delphi)法是医疗卫生领域构建风险评估指标体系的常见方法,并通过权重计算将风险评估结果由定性转为定量[5]。本研究采用Delphi专家咨询法构建突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标体系,为今后相关工作的开展提供全面、可量化的参考工具。
通过查阅中国疾病预防控制中心(CDC)发布的《突发事件公共卫生风险评估技术方案(试行)》[6]、突发水污染事件卫生应急相关技术指引[7]、工作方案和文献报道等,研究小组商讨后初步建立突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标清单,主要包括一级指标4个(可能性、危害性、脆弱性、可控性)、二级指标18个和三级指标81个。
邀请国家、省、市级疾控中心、高等院校和环境卫生相关机构的专家进行咨询,专家纳入条件为从事环境健康、毒理学、流行病学、卫生应急和水务管理等相关工作或研究≥10年、具有副高级及以上职称且自愿参加。自制咨询表,采取纸质或电子表格形式,于2024年1—3月进行两轮专家咨询。第1轮咨询介绍研究目的、背景、评分标准,收集专家对每项指标重要性、可行性、敏感性、熟悉程度评分(均为1~10分)、每项指标的具体意见和建议、4类判断依据(理论分析、实践经验、国内外著作或体系了解和直观感觉)对专家评分的影响程度及专家基本情况等信息。根据第1轮咨询结果,结合指标筛选标准和专家建议,修订确定第2轮咨询指标后再次进行专家咨询。两轮咨询结束后进一步完善指标,形成最终的指标体系。
指标入选的量化标准为重要性、可行性和敏感性3项得分的均值均 ≥7且变异系数<0.25[8]。重要性、可行性和敏感性中有≥2项得分的均值<7或变异系数≥0.25的指标予以剔除;有1项得分均值<7分或变异系数≥0.25的指标需经研究小组讨论判断是否剔除[9]。此外,专家提出需要增加或修改的指标,经研究小组讨论后给予相应修订。
采用Excel 2023建立数据库,应用R4.3.2 软件进行统计分析。德尔菲法专家咨询的相关系数计算如下:(1)专家积极系数:即咨询表回收率=回收有效专家咨询表份数/发出专家咨询表份数×100%,回收率 >70%表示专家积极性较好[10]。(2) 专家权威系数(Cr):Cr=[判断依据(Ca)+熟悉程度(Cs)]/2,Ca根据4种判断依据对指标评分的影响程度进行量化得分,Cs根据熟悉度评分赋值为0.1~1,Cr >0.7说明专家权威性较高[11]。(3)专家意见的一致性系数:各指标重要性、可行性和敏感性得分的算术均数反映专家意见的集中程度。变异系数(CV)和肯德尔协调系数(Kendall′s W)表示专家对单个指标和全部指标评分意见的协调程度。CV≥0.25指专家协调程度不佳。Kendall′s W取值范围为0~1,值越大,专家意见一致性越好,Kendall′s W检验有统计学意义说明专家评分意见协调性好[12]。应用层次分析法计算每个专家对指标重要性、可行性和敏感性3个维度的分配系数[13],基于指标的综合得分=(重要性得分×重要性系数+可行性得分×可行性系数+敏感性得分×敏感性系数),分别计算专家评分法权重[14]和熵权法权重[15],采用乘数合成归一法的组合赋权法计算三级指标的综合权重[16]。将三级指标综合权重系数相加得到所属二、一级指标的综合权重[17]。
共15名专家参与2轮咨询,符合德尔菲法咨询专家数量要求[18]。专家分别来自国家、省级和市级CDC(7人)、高等院校(5人)及环境卫生相关机构(3人)。其中男性11人(73.33%),女性4人(26.67%)。正高职称11人,占73.33%,平均年龄为(48.73±9.16)岁,平均工作年限为(23.93±10.25)年。
第1轮咨询发出18份问卷,回收15份,专家积极系数为83.33%。第2轮咨询邀请第1轮参与回复的15名专家,发放和回收问卷均为15份,专家积极系数为100%。两轮提出修改意见或建议的专家数分别为15人(100%)和4人(26.67%)。两轮咨询专家的熟悉程度(Cs)分别为( 0.76±0.15)和(0.79±0.07),判断依据(Ca)分别为(0.82±0.15)和(0.85±0.13),权威程度(Cr)分别为(0.79±0.11)和(0.82±0.08),均大于0.70。
第1轮专家咨询的各级指标重要性、可行性和敏感性得分均值为5.29~9.07,变异系数为0.09~0.56,总体Kendall′s W为0.250(P<0.001)。第2轮专家咨询的指标重要性、可行性和敏感性得分均值为7.13~9.20,变异系数为0.03~0.17,总体Kendall′s W为0.460(P<0.001),专家意见趋于一致可以结束咨询。
根据指标筛选标准,结合专家评分、建议和小组讨论,两轮专家咨询均对指标体系进行调整(表2)。第1轮专家咨询后共删除1个二级指标(“经济损失”)和17个三级指标,增加2个三级指标(“辖区人口数”和“应急供水能力”),修改7个三级指标的文字表述。 第2轮咨询后未增减指标,修改2个三级指标的文字表述,最后形成了包含4个一级指标、17个二级指标和66个三级指标的指标体系。
一级指标中,“可能性(0.373 4)”和“可控性(0.372 8)”的综合权重较高。二级指标中,“资源保障(0.123 1)”“水厂处理工艺(0.113 0)”和“水质监管(0.101 4)”的综合权重位居前3位,“人群心理健康(0.013 6)”的综合权重最低。三级指标中,“应急资源调配速率(0.049 9)”、“辖区水质监管部门定期开展生活饮用水水质监测,监测项目覆盖GB 5749—2022[19]所列的常规指标(0.044 4)”和“应急人员专业技术水平(0.039 1)”的综合权重较高且均与可控性相关。
本研究参照突发事件公共卫生风险评估的一般范式,着眼于事件发生的可能性、严重性、脆弱性和可控性四个层面,构建了包含4个一级指标、17个二级指标和66个三级指标的突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标体系,同时采用专家评分法和熵权法相结合的综合集成赋权法确定指标权重。本研究采用德尔菲咨询法,邀请的专家地域范围广,专家研究领域全面,具有一定代表性。两轮专家积极性和权威性均高于70%,第2轮Kendall′s W系数(0.46,P<0.05)高于第1轮(0.25,P<0.05),专家意见较为一致。本研究需要专家对指标的重要性、可行性和敏感性共3个维度同时评价,并利用层次分析法计算指标的综合得分,可以充分考量指标的相对重要性。利用集成赋权法确定指标权重,便于兼顾专家共识的权威性及各项指标观测值的差异性[5]。
突发水污染事件发生可能性评估指标覆盖饮用水安全管理的各个环节,包括水源保护与污染控制、水厂净化处理、管网建设与维护、二次供水设施运行管理以及水质检测监测等[20]。可能性评估的25个三级指标中,“当地近5年水源水污染物监测浓度的变化趋势(0.026 8)”和“按规定清洗和维护水处理设施和设备,并按要求更换水处理材料(0.025 8)”的指标权重较高。由于长期监测水源污染状况有助于掌握饮用水污染的潜在风险,制水工艺则是解决原水污染物的重要途径,本研究结果也进一步表明水源污染控制和制水工艺改进是预防突发水污染事件发生的重点。
突发水污染事件危害性评估指标主要涉及生活饮用水污染对健康的影响,其三级指标中,“龙头水出现浑浊、红虫、异味”的指标权重最高,超过“水源水出现浑浊、红虫、异味”、介水传染病、急性中毒和心理健康等指标权重,说明饮用水的感官性状如臭味、肉眼可见物等指标最容易被察觉,是对饮用水安全性认知的最直接参数。我国《生活饮用水卫生标准:GB 5749—2022》[19]和WHO发布的《饮用水水质准则》[21]均指出在紧急情况经风险评估可以适当放宽感官性状,于洋等[22]研究则提出突发公共卫生事件短期暴露下感官性状指标的建议限值:臭和味、肉眼可见物仍规定为无异臭、异味和无肉眼可见物;因色度超过30度会有明显颜色,色度限值可从15度放宽到20度;反映絮凝、沉淀、过滤和消毒等水质净化处理过程的综合指标“浑浊度”可从1 NTU放宽到5 NTU。因此饮用水的感官性状尤其是无异臭、无异味和无肉眼可见物应是处理突发水污染事件时的水质保障基本要求。
基于“暴露性–敏感性–适应性”的脆弱性评估逻辑[23–24]形成突发水污染事件应对脆弱性评估指标,共5个二级指标和12个三级指标。外部反应中的“近5年内水污染相关的媒体新闻负面报道(0.027 1)”权重最高,这提示经常出现水污染事件报道的地区可能存在水环境污染源或供水单位的水质管理隐患[25],增加了辖区人群的水污染暴露风险,有待进一步排查原因,防微杜渐,降低突发水污染事件的发生风险。
突发水污染事件的公共卫生风险可控性评估指标围绕水质监管、预警体系、应急响应和资源保障4个方面(二级指标),反映了卫生应急能力评估的主要内容[26]。可控性相关的22个三级指标中“应急资源调配速率(0.049 9)”“辖区水质监管部门定期开展生活饮用水水质监测,监测项目覆盖GB 5749—2022[19]所列的常规指标(0.044 4)”和“应急人员专业技术水平(0.039 1)”的指标权重位居前3位,也位居所有66个三级指标权重前列。这从风险评估的角度反映出加强人力和物资保障、长期规范开展水质监测可能是突发水污染事件卫生应急能力建设的关键因素。
由于突发水污染事件的不同阶段相关信息发生变化,突发水污染事件的公共卫生风险评估需要在事前、事中和事后不同阶段动态开展[6]。应用本研究指标体系时可以根据每个阶段的特点选择相应指标进行风险评估。例如事前风险评估可以选择信息相对容易获取的危害性指标,侧重可能性、脆弱性和可控性评估相关指标,有助于在短时间内相对完整地掌握现况,查找薄弱环节,做好突发水污染事件的应急准备。事中和事后风险评估则在流行病学调查的基础上,主要选择危害性、脆弱性和可控性相关指标,并结合EPA经典“四步法”的环境健康风险评估,为决策者制定和调整突发水污染事件防控策略提供更为详尽全面的研判依据。具体运用该指标体系时,将每个指标是否达到要求或数量高低二分类进行1或0的判定,总分即为指标数量,然后将得分为1的指标权重相加总和乘以总分,即可得到该总分模式下的最后得分。
综上,本研究构建的突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估指标体系具有一定的科学性和可靠性,可用于一般性突发水污染事件公共卫生风险的量化评估与比较,为水污染事件的卫生应急处置提供参考依据。本研究也存在一定局限性:一是进行突发水污染事件危害性评估时,尚需根据实际情况,结合其他方法进行深入评估;二是该套评估体系在今后实际应用过程中,涉及某个特定原因或水体类型的突发水污染事件公共卫生风险评估时,可能需要进一步进行指标的更新、简化和完善。

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doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146582
  • 接收时间:2025-01-03
  • 首发时间:2026-10-25
  • 出版时间:2025-07-10
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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-03
  • 修回日期:2025-02-14
  • 录用日期:2025-04-12
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    杭州市疾病预防控制中心(杭州市卫生监督所)健康危害因素监测所,杭州 310021

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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