Article(id=1321169655864087047, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1321169578152014376, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1147332, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1741276800000, receivedDateStr=2025-03-07, revisedDate=1750953600000, revisedDateStr=2025-06-27, acceptedDate=1754064000000, acceptedDateStr=2025-08-02, onlineDate=1792920992102, onlineDateStr=2026-10-25, pubDate=1760025600000, pubDateStr=2025-10-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792920992102, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-25, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792920992102, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792920992102, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1321169578152014376, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2025', volume='41', issue='10', pageStart='1153', pageEnd='1280', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1760025600000', pubDateStr='2025-10-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792920973575, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792920973575, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1226, endPage=1231, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1321169656098968072, articleId=1321169655864087047, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Scenario expression of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events: construction based on knowledge element model, columnId=1320427686514770171, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Survey and Report, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To construct a scenario expression model reflecting the objective state of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events, providing a basis for hospital decision-makers to formulate targeted prevention and control strategies.

Methods

On the basis of the "triangular" framework of public safety and the theory of disaster science, the components of scenarios of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events were classified, and the theoretical method of knowledge elements was used to structurally express each component.

Results

The scenario components of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events were classified into disaster-causing factors (DF), disaster-bearing body (DB), disaster-prone environment (DE), and emergency activities (EA). The spatial and temporal expression models of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events were constructed according to the binary form of knowledge elements, and some scenarios of the events were expressed as examples. Finally, the five-dimensional scenario expression model of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events was proposed, consisting of component (K), denotation (N), feature (P), value (D), and time (T) dimensions.

Conclusions

The cross-domain application of the method of knowledge elements provides an innovative model demonstration for unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events, which is of great significance for improving the preparedness for healthcare-associated infection emergencies.

, authors=Longfei MA1, Ning NING1, Jiaqing XIAO2, Qunhong WU1, authorsList=Longfei MA, Ning NING, Jiaqing XIAO, Qunhong WU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Ning NING, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
NING Ning, E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2025 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1321169659278250517, articleId=1321169655864087047, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=非常规医院感染暴发事件情景表达:基于知识元模型构建, columnId=1320427686770622717, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=调查报告与分析, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

构建反映非常规医院感染暴发事件客观状态的情景表达模型,为医院决策者制定针对性防控策略提供依据。

方法

基于公共安全“三角形”框架与灾害学理论划分非常规医院感染暴发事件的情景构成要素,运用知识元的理论方法对各情景构成要素进行结构化表达。

结果

非常规医院感染暴发事件的情景构成要素划分为:致灾因子(DF)、承灾体(DB)、孕灾环境(DE)及应急活动(EA);根据知识元二元组形式构建非常规医院感染暴发事件的空间、时间表达模型,并对事件的部分情景进行表达示例,最终提出非常规医院感染暴发事件“五维”情景表达模型,包括:构成要素维(K)、含义维(N)、特征维(P)、特征值维(D)和时间维(T)。

结论

通过知识元理论的跨域应用,为非常规医院感染暴发事件的情景表达提供创新模型示范,对提升医院感染应急准备工作能力具有重要意义。

, authors=马龙飞1, 宁宁1, *, *, 肖佳庆2, 吴群红1, authorsList=马龙飞, 宁宁, 肖佳庆, 吴群红, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=宁宁, authorNote=

马龙飞(2001—),硕士在读,研究方向:医院感染管理

, correspAuthorsNote=
宁宁,E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=版权所有 © 《中国公共卫生》编辑部 2025, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=/5uYVagfHeh0i/EjQrvO+Q==, magXml=fxiOsgtA2assyWlYbUyD1A==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=ZI+aoPYcFpbqwzZQIQE1cw==, pdfFileSize=2026423, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=Sq+Nxo1Zlpfl8RTA/n6HFQ==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=iSFV5yZtTAL6AGZDF01EsA==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1321169659748012573, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1321169659840287263, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169659748012573, language=EN, stringName=Longfei MA, firstName=Longfei, middleName=null, lastName=MA, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1321169659932561952, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169659748012573, language=CN, stringName=马龙飞, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081, bio={"content":"

马龙飞(2001—),硕士在读,研究方向:医院感染管理

"}, bioImg=null, bioContent=

马龙飞(2001—),硕士在读,研究方向:医院感染管理

, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1321169659508937238, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659517325847, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659529908760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081)])]), Author(id=1321169660033225250, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, orderNo=1, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=ningninghyd@163.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=1, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1321169660108722724, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660033225250, language=EN, stringName=Ning NING, firstName=Ning, middleName=null, lastName=NING, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1321169660188414501, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660033225250, language=CN, stringName=宁宁, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, *, *, address=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1321169659508937238, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659517325847, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659529908760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081)])]), Author(id=1321169660284883495, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, orderNo=2, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1321169660385546793, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660284883495, language=EN, stringName=Jiaqing XIAO, firstName=Jiaqing, middleName=null, lastName=XIAO, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=2, address=2Disinfection and Healthcare-Associated Infection Institute, Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin 150030, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1321169660477821482, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660284883495, language=CN, stringName=肖佳庆, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=2, address=2黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心消毒与医院感染控制所,哈尔滨 150030, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1321169659622183449, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, xref=2, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659630572058, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659622183449, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2Disinfection and Healthcare-Associated Infection Institute, Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin 150030, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659638960667, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659622183449, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心消毒与医院感染控制所,哈尔滨 150030)])]), Author(id=1321169660578484780, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, orderNo=3, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1321169662268789294, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660578484780, language=EN, stringName=Qunhong WU, firstName=Qunhong, middleName=null, lastName=WU, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1321169662373646895, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660578484780, language=CN, stringName=吴群红, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1321169659508937238, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659517325847, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659529908760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081)])])], keywords=[Keyword(id=1321169662474310192, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=EN, orderNo=1, keyword=unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak), Keyword(id=1321169662600139313, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=EN, orderNo=2, keyword=scenario expression), Keyword(id=1321169662725968434, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=EN, orderNo=3, keyword=model construction), Keyword(id=1321169662809854515, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=EN, orderNo=4, keyword=knowledge element), Keyword(id=1321169662902129204, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=EN, orderNo=5, keyword=innovative model), Keyword(id=1321169662990209589, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=非常规医院感染暴发事件), Keyword(id=1321169663086678582, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=CN, orderNo=2, keyword=情景表达), Keyword(id=1321169663170564663, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=CN, orderNo=3, keyword=模型构建), Keyword(id=1321169663325753912, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=CN, orderNo=4, keyword=知识元), Keyword(id=1321169663426417209, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=CN, orderNo=5, keyword=创新模型)], refs=[Reference(id=1321169664542102082, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=1, rfOrder=0, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=韩智勇, 翁文国, 张维, 等. 重大研究计划“非常规突发事件应急管理研究”的科学背景、目标与组织管理[J]. 中国科学基金, 2009, 23(4): 215-220., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169664630182467, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=2, rfOrder=1, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=王永明. 情景构建是贯彻“底线思维”的重要抓手[J]. 劳动保护, 2019(3): 16-19., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169664697291332, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=3, rfOrder=2, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=刘铁民. 重大事故灾难情景构建理论与方法[J]. 复旦公共行政评论, 2013(2): 46-59., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169664789566021, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=4, rfOrder=3, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=范维澄, 刘奕, 翁文国. 公共安全科技的“三角形”框架与“4+1”方法学[J]. 科技导报, 2009, 27(6): 3., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169664865063494, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=5, rfOrder=4, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=史培军. 三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(3): 1-9., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169664948949575, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=6, rfOrder=5, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=刘秀. 基于本体的海上溢油事件情景建模[J]. 测绘与空间地理信息, 2020, 43(5): 30-32, 37., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169665032835656, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=7, rfOrder=6, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=巩前胜. “情景—应对”型应急决策中情景识别关键技术研究[D]. 西安: 西安科技大学, 2018., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169666710557257, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=8, rfOrder=7, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=张慧馨, 来永芳, 黄伟奇. 基于知识元的“脏弹”袭击事件情景构建[J]. 防化研究, 2022, 1(2): 74-78., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169666823803466, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=9, rfOrder=8, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=夏登友. 基于“情景—应对”的非常规突发灾害事故应急决策技术研究[D]. 北京: 北京理工大学, 2015., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169666920272459, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=10, rfOrder=9, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=史凌源. 铁路突发事件应急情景推演与事故动态分级研究[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2023., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169667016741452, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=11, rfOrder=10, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=张明红. 基于案例的非常规突发事件情景推理方法研究[D]. 武汉: 华中科技大学, 2016., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169667125793357, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=12, rfOrder=11, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=郭磊磊, 秦红英, 张艺, 等. 重症监护病区医院感染风险预测模型构建[J]. 中华医院感染学杂志, 2019, 29(8): 1240-1245., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169667239039566, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=13, rfOrder=12, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=李倩, 刘芸宏, 吴晓慧, 等. 基于决策树和Logistic回归预测出血性脑卒中手术后医院感染风险[J]. 中华医院感染学杂志, 2021, 31(23): 3556-3561., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169667331314255, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=14, rfOrder=13, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=杨静雯, 范建华, 陈萍, 等. 新型冠状病毒感染2种时间序列分析模型预测效果比较[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2023, 39(12): 1572-1578., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169667440366160, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=15, rfOrder=14, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=李琼芬, 黄甜, 王荣华, 等. 传染病疫情预测预警模型研究进展[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2013, 29(11): 1695-1697., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169667536835153, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=16, rfOrder=15, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=姜波, 张超, 陈涛, 等. 基于Bayes网络的暴雨情景构建和演化方法[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 61(6): 509-517., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169667616526930, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=17, rfOrder=16, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=戎军涛, 王丽华. 图书情报领域知识元技术研究述评[J]. 图书馆学研究, 2023(7): 9-15., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169667721384531, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=18, rfOrder=17, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=周愉峰, 李志, 李玉凤. 基于情景推演与故障贝叶斯网络的关键救灾设施中断机理[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2020, 29(4): 173-184., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169667809464916, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=19, rfOrder=18, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=沙勇忠, 付磊. 面向突发重大传染病事件的情景构建研究[J]. 文献与数据学报, 2022, 4(3): 23-38., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169667910128213, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=20, rfOrder=19, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=李锋, 王慧敏. 基于知识元的非常规突发洪水应急情景分析与表达研究[J]. 软科学, 2016, 30(4): 140-144., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169668006597206, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=21, rfOrder=20, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=曲毅, 仲秋雁, 马骁霏, 等. 基于情景的突发事件演变概率规则推理方法[J]. 系统工程学报, 2014, 29(4): 571-578., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169668094677591, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=22, rfOrder=21, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=张承伟, 李建伟, 陈雪龙. 基于知识元的突发事件情景建模[J]. 情报杂志, 2012, 31(7): 11-15, 43., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169668207923800, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=23, rfOrder=22, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=陈晨, 俞政, 张新梅. 考虑应急活动的非常规突发事件情景刻画研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2014, 24(10): 163-169., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169668287615577, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=24, rfOrder=23, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=姜卉. 应急实时决策中的情景表达及情景间关系研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报(社科版), 2012, 14(1): 48-52., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1321169668388278874, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=25, rfOrder=24, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Zhu Y T, Yang Q, Fu L M, et al. Scenario construction and evolutionary analysis of nonconventional public health emergencies based on Bayesian networks[J]. Front Public Health, 2025, 13: 1489904., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null)], funds=null, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1321169659508937238, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659517325847, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659529908760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081)]), AuthorCompany(id=1321169659622183449, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, xref=2, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659630572058, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659622183449, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2Disinfection and Healthcare-Associated Infection Institute, Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin 150030, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659638960667, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659622183449, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心消毒与医院感染控制所,哈尔滨 150030)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1321169663640326714, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Spatial structure model of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events at a time point i, figureFileSmall=zBTQsVIIx0CZuwDFIkfn+g==, figureFileBig=Sq+Nxo1Zlpfl8RTA/n6HFQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1321169663728407099, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=CN, label=图1, caption=某一时间点i下非常规医院感染暴发事件空间结构模型, figureFileSmall=zBTQsVIIx0CZuwDFIkfn+g==, figureFileBig=Sq+Nxo1Zlpfl8RTA/n6HFQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1321169663946510908, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Time continuum model of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events, figureFileSmall=lHz5sUUP+0P6MrZQjlaMqg==, figureFileBig=4gBEj5n5erSG5NSJ0tsImg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1321169664034591293, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=CN, label=图2, caption=非常规医院感染暴发事件时间连续模型

注:非常规医院感染暴发事件的情景分为n个时间切片,t1时间点对应初始情景的空间结构模型,ti表示第i个时间点上情景的空间结构模型,tn表示终末情景的空间结构模型。

, figureFileSmall=lHz5sUUP+0P6MrZQjlaMqg==, figureFileBig=4gBEj5n5erSG5NSJ0tsImg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1321169664118477374, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=A five-dimensional scenario expression model of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events, figureFileSmall=3C26nMe/UG0+9GFigpDdmg==, figureFileBig=Y9O6Bzbps26nyKo9b2Uq3Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1321169664210752063, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=CN, label=图3, caption=基于“五维”的非常规医院感染暴发事件情景表达模型, figureFileSmall=3C26nMe/UG0+9GFigpDdmg==, figureFileBig=Y9O6Bzbps26nyKo9b2Uq3Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1321169664303026752, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=

Information of the five-dimensional scenario expression of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
构成要素维(K)项目分类含义维(N)特征维(P)特征值维(D)
致灾因子(DFi)实验源性N1:实验室泄漏事件P1:出现;P2:未出现1;2
自然源性输入性疫情N2:境外输入病例P3:出现;P4:未出现1;2
本地疫情N3:“人兽共患病”案例P5:出现;P6:未出现1;2
社会源性故意性N4:生物恐怖事件P7:出现;P8:未出现1;2
非故意性N5:外来物种入侵P9:出现;P10:未出现1;2
……
承灾体(DBi)N6:易感人群P11:医务工作人员;1;2
P12:住院患者
……
孕灾环境(DEi)微观N7:消毒灭菌工作P13:规范;P14:不规范1;2
N8:医疗操作P15:规范;P16:不规范1;2
N9:隔离病房P17:采取;P18:未采取1;2
中观N10:卫生应急管理制度P19:完善;P20:不完善1;2
N11:医院布局P21:合理;P22:不合理1;2
N12:医院承载力P23:强;P24:中等;P25:弱1;2;3
宏观N13:人口流动P26:正常;P27:异常1;2
N14:政治环境P28:稳定;P29:动摇1;2
……
应急活动(EAi)事前N15:应急培训与演练P30:采取;P31:未采取1;2
事中N16:医疗物资配置状况P32:充足;P33:不足1;2
N17:医务人员配置情况P34:充足;P35:不足1;2
N18:信息沟通与交流P36:充足;P37:不足1;2
N19:救助与安抚P38:及时;P39:迟滞1;2
N20:环境消杀P40:及时;P41:迟滞1;2
N21:隔离管控P42:及时;P43:迟滞1;2
N22:资源调度能力P44:强;P45:中等;P46:弱1;2;3
N23:研制疫苗P47:采取;P48:未采取1;2
事后N24:反思与总结P49:采取;P50:未采取1;2
N25:改进应急预案与响应机制P51:采取;P52:未采取1;2
……
), ArticleFig(id=1321169664416272961, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

基于“五维”的非常规医院感染暴发事件情景表达信息

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
构成要素维(K)项目分类含义维(N)特征维(P)特征值维(D)
致灾因子(DFi)实验源性N1:实验室泄漏事件P1:出现;P2:未出现1;2
自然源性输入性疫情N2:境外输入病例P3:出现;P4:未出现1;2
本地疫情N3:“人兽共患病”案例P5:出现;P6:未出现1;2
社会源性故意性N4:生物恐怖事件P7:出现;P8:未出现1;2
非故意性N5:外来物种入侵P9:出现;P10:未出现1;2
……
承灾体(DBi)N6:易感人群P11:医务工作人员;1;2
P12:住院患者
……
孕灾环境(DEi)微观N7:消毒灭菌工作P13:规范;P14:不规范1;2
N8:医疗操作P15:规范;P16:不规范1;2
N9:隔离病房P17:采取;P18:未采取1;2
中观N10:卫生应急管理制度P19:完善;P20:不完善1;2
N11:医院布局P21:合理;P22:不合理1;2
N12:医院承载力P23:强;P24:中等;P25:弱1;2;3
宏观N13:人口流动P26:正常;P27:异常1;2
N14:政治环境P28:稳定;P29:动摇1;2
……
应急活动(EAi)事前N15:应急培训与演练P30:采取;P31:未采取1;2
事中N16:医疗物资配置状况P32:充足;P33:不足1;2
N17:医务人员配置情况P34:充足;P35:不足1;2
N18:信息沟通与交流P36:充足;P37:不足1;2
N19:救助与安抚P38:及时;P39:迟滞1;2
N20:环境消杀P40:及时;P41:迟滞1;2
N21:隔离管控P42:及时;P43:迟滞1;2
N22:资源调度能力P44:强;P45:中等;P46:弱1;2;3
N23:研制疫苗P47:采取;P48:未采取1;2
事后N24:反思与总结P49:采取;P50:未采取1;2
N25:改进应急预案与响应机制P51:采取;P52:未采取1;2
……
)], attaches=null, journal=Journal(id=1319372848273391765, delFlag=0, nameCn=中国公共卫生, nameEn=Chinese Journal of Public Health, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, issn=1001-0580, eissn=null, cn=21-1234/R, coden=null, periodic=0, language=CN, oaType=null, ccby=null, superviseOffice=null, ownerOffice=null, pubOffice=null, editorOffice=null, officeType=null, aims=null, clcCode=null, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=null, officeZip=null, officeEmail=null, officePhone=null, editDirector=null, officeDirector=null, officeDirectorPhone=null, officeStaffNum=null, officeEmpNum=null, coverPicUrl=/9FMdzA1g/v65YNirKDVig==, journalPrice=null, startedYear=null, abbrevIsoEn=Chinese Journal of Public Health, journalRemark=null, publicationField=null, createdTime=1792492599792, updatedTime=1792493958900, createdBy=18614031015, updatedBy=13701087609, firstLetterCn=Z, firstLetterEn=Z, subjectCode=Medical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, subjectName=null, subjectCodeEn=Medical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, subjectNameEn=null, picCn=/9FMdzA1g/v65YNirKDVig==, picEn=o7Pdo4L3Nh8JnSoifp1bTw==, jcr=null, cjcr=null, exts=[JournalExt(id=1319378548855517565, language=CN, name=中国公共卫生, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, managedBy=, sponsoredBy=, publishedBy=, editorOffice=, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=, officeZip=, editDirector=, officeDirector=null, officePhone=null, coverPicUrl=null, journalRemark=, submitArticleUrl=null, websiteUrl=, createdTime=1792493958915, updatedTime=1792493958915, createdBy=13701087609, updatedBy=13701087609, submissionGuidelinesUrl=, submissionAuthorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/authorLogOn.action, submissionEditorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/editorLogOn.action, submissionReviewUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/expertLogOn.action, submissionCeEditorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/editorInChiefLogOn.action, submissionAeEditorUrl=, option={"copyright":""}), JournalExt(id=1319378548901654910, language=EN, name=Chinese Journal of Public Health, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, managedBy=, sponsoredBy=, publishedBy=, editorOffice=, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=, officeZip=, editDirector=, officeDirector=null, officePhone=null, coverPicUrl=null, journalRemark=, submitArticleUrl=null, websiteUrl=, createdTime=1792493958926, updatedTime=1792493958926, createdBy=13701087609, updatedBy=13701087609, submissionGuidelinesUrl=, submissionAuthorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/authorLogOn.action, submissionEditorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/editorLogOn.action, submissionReviewUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/expertLogOn.action, submissionCeEditorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/editorInChiefLogOn.action, submissionAeEditorUrl=, option={"copyright":""})], databaseList=null, tenantJournalId=1319373219989389464, websiteList=[Website(id=1319376331826119583, webName=null, webTitle=null, webDomain=null, webCopyrigh=null, webIpcNo=null, seoTitle=null, seoKeywords=null, seoDescription=null, tenantJournalId=null, journalId=1319373219989389464, journalNameCn=null, journalNameEn=null, grayFlag=null, tenantId=1146029695717560320, platformId=null, journalGroupId=null, journalGroupNameCn=null, journalGroupNameEn=null, type=1, domain=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN, language=CN, createTime=1792493430334, createBy=18614031015, updateTime=1792493702095, updateBy=18614031015, name=中国公共卫生-中文, tplId=1146099689490845704, title=中国公共卫生, delFlag=0, indexPage=/home, props=[WebsiteProps(id=1319377601878152017, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=articleTextType, value=kx, createTime=1792493733138, updateTime=1792493733138, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601857180494, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=banner, value=null, createTime=1792493733133, updateTime=1792493733133, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601907512148, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=grayFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493733145, updateTime=1792493733145, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601844597581, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=logo, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN/file/pic?fileId=R1bpcFoY1/NiafORTvYzaA==, createTime=1792493733130, updateTime=1792493733130, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601924289366, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=minRunFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493733149, updateTime=1792493733149, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601869763408, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=picServerUrl, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN/file/pic, createTime=1792493733136, updateTime=1792493733136, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601915900757, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=silenceFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493733147, updateTime=1792493733147, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601861374799, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=staticResourcePath, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cast_kjdb_cn_619/, createTime=1792493733134, updateTime=1792493733134, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601886540626, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=themeColor, value=null, createTime=1792493733140, updateTime=1792493733140, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601899123539, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=themeStyle, value=null, createTime=1792493733143, updateTime=1792493733143, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015)]), Website(id=1319376331910005684, webName=null, webTitle=null, webDomain=null, webCopyrigh=null, webIpcNo=null, seoTitle=null, seoKeywords=null, seoDescription=null, tenantJournalId=null, journalId=1319373219989389464, journalNameCn=null, journalNameEn=null, grayFlag=null, tenantId=1146029695717560320, platformId=null, journalGroupId=null, journalGroupNameCn=null, journalGroupNameEn=null, type=1, domain=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/EN, language=EN, createTime=1792493430354, createBy=18614031015, updateTime=1792493697553, updateBy=18614031015, name=中国公共卫生-英文, tplId=1146101810881728533, title=Chinese Journal of Public Health, delFlag=0, indexPage=/home, props=[WebsiteProps(id=1319377562602689343, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=articleTextType, value=kx, createTime=1792493723774, updateTime=1792493723774, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562581717820, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=banner, value=null, createTime=1792493723769, updateTime=1792493723769, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562636243778, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=grayFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493723782, updateTime=1792493723782, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562569134907, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=logo, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/EN/file/pic?fileId=R1bpcFoY1/NiafORTvYzaA==, createTime=1792493723766, updateTime=1792493723766, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562648826692, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=minRunFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493723785, updateTime=1792493723785, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562594300734, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=picServerUrl, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/EN/file/pic, createTime=1792493723772, updateTime=1792493723772, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562640438083, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=silenceFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493723783, updateTime=1792493723783, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562590106429, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=staticResourcePath, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cast_kjdb_en_623/, createTime=1792493723771, updateTime=1792493723771, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562615272256, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=themeColor, value=null, createTime=1792493723777, updateTime=1792493723777, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562623660865, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=themeStyle, value=null, createTime=1792493723779, updateTime=1792493723779, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015)])], journalTitle=中国公共卫生, weixinUrl=null, journalUrl=https://www.zgggws.com/, iacademicId=null, status=1, seqNo=null, journalTitleEn=Chinese Journal of Public Health, journalPhotoCn=/9FMdzA1g/v65YNirKDVig==, journalPhotoEn=o7Pdo4L3Nh8JnSoifp1bTw==, journalFirstLetter=Z, journalRecommend=null, journalNew=null, journalCollection=null, jcrJf=null, cjcrJf=null, jcrJfStr=null, cjcrJfStr=null, submissionFirstDecision=null, sciSubjectClassification=null, casSubjectClassification=null, citeScore=null, totalCitationFrequency=null, icpCode=null, psCode=null, advertisingLicenseCode=null, copyrightInformation=null, country=null, option=, provinceCode=null, provinceName=null, collectFlag=false, interPubPlatform=, interPubPlatformUrl=null), detailUrlCn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN/10.11847/zgggws1147332, detailUrlEn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/EN/10.11847/zgggws1147332, pdfUrlCn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN/PDF/10.11847/zgggws1147332, pdfUrlEn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/EN/PDF/10.11847/zgggws1147332, aliStartDate=0, aliEndDate=0, collectionFlag=false, citedCount=null, citedUrl=null, previewStatus=0, delFlag=0, hasFullText=1, orderTime=1760025600000, fullTextJson=null, articleText=null, reference=null)
收藏切换
非常规医院感染暴发事件情景表达:基于知识元模型构建
收藏切换
PDF下载
马龙飞 1 , 宁宁 1, *, * , 肖佳庆 2 , 吴群红 1
中国公共卫生 | 调查报告与分析 2025,41(10): 1226-1231
收起
收藏切换
中国公共卫生 |调查报告与分析 2025 , 41 (10) : 1226 -1231
非常规医院感染暴发事件情景表达:基于知识元模型构建
全屏
[Author(id=1321169659748012573, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1321169659840287263, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169659748012573, language=EN, stringName=Longfei MA, firstName=Longfei, middleName=null, lastName=MA, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1321169659932561952, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169659748012573, language=CN, stringName=马龙飞, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081, bio={"content":"

马龙飞(2001—),硕士在读,研究方向:医院感染管理

"}, bioImg=null, bioContent=

马龙飞(2001—),硕士在读,研究方向:医院感染管理

, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1321169659508937238, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659517325847, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659529908760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081)])]), Author(id=1321169660033225250, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, orderNo=1, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=ningninghyd@163.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=1, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1321169660108722724, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660033225250, language=EN, stringName=Ning NING, firstName=Ning, middleName=null, lastName=NING, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1321169660188414501, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660033225250, language=CN, stringName=宁宁, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, *, *, address=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1321169659508937238, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659517325847, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659529908760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081)])]), Author(id=1321169660284883495, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, orderNo=2, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1321169660385546793, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660284883495, language=EN, stringName=Jiaqing XIAO, firstName=Jiaqing, middleName=null, lastName=XIAO, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=2, address=2Disinfection and Healthcare-Associated Infection Institute, Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin 150030, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1321169660477821482, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660284883495, language=CN, stringName=肖佳庆, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=2, address=2黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心消毒与医院感染控制所,哈尔滨 150030, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1321169659622183449, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, xref=2, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659630572058, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659622183449, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2Disinfection and Healthcare-Associated Infection Institute, Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin 150030, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659638960667, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659622183449, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心消毒与医院感染控制所,哈尔滨 150030)])]), Author(id=1321169660578484780, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, orderNo=3, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1321169662268789294, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660578484780, language=EN, stringName=Qunhong WU, firstName=Qunhong, middleName=null, lastName=WU, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1321169662373646895, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, authorId=1321169660578484780, language=CN, stringName=吴群红, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1321169659508937238, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659517325847, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1321169659529908760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169655864087047, companyId=1321169659508937238, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081)])])]
马龙飞1, 宁宁1, *, * , 肖佳庆2, 吴群红1
作者信息
  • 1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081
  • 2黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心消毒与医院感染控制所,哈尔滨 150030
通讯作者:
宁宁,E-mail:
作者简介:

马龙飞(2001—),硕士在读,研究方向:医院感染管理

Scenario expression of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events: construction based on knowledge element model
Longfei MA1, Ning NING1 , Jiaqing XIAO2, Qunhong WU1
Affiliations
  • 1Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, China
  • 2Disinfection and Healthcare-Associated Infection Institute, Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin 150030, China
  • Corresponding Author:
    NING Ning, E-mail:
出版时间: 2025-10-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1147332
文章导航
收藏切换
目的

构建反映非常规医院感染暴发事件客观状态的情景表达模型,为医院决策者制定针对性防控策略提供依据。

方法

基于公共安全“三角形”框架与灾害学理论划分非常规医院感染暴发事件的情景构成要素,运用知识元的理论方法对各情景构成要素进行结构化表达。

结果

非常规医院感染暴发事件的情景构成要素划分为:致灾因子(DF)、承灾体(DB)、孕灾环境(DE)及应急活动(EA);根据知识元二元组形式构建非常规医院感染暴发事件的空间、时间表达模型,并对事件的部分情景进行表达示例,最终提出非常规医院感染暴发事件“五维”情景表达模型,包括:构成要素维(K)、含义维(N)、特征维(P)、特征值维(D)和时间维(T)。

结论

通过知识元理论的跨域应用,为非常规医院感染暴发事件的情景表达提供创新模型示范,对提升医院感染应急准备工作能力具有重要意义。

非常规医院感染暴发事件  /  情景表达  /  模型构建  /  知识元  /  创新模型
Objective

To construct a scenario expression model reflecting the objective state of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events, providing a basis for hospital decision-makers to formulate targeted prevention and control strategies.

Methods

On the basis of the "triangular" framework of public safety and the theory of disaster science, the components of scenarios of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events were classified, and the theoretical method of knowledge elements was used to structurally express each component.

Results

The scenario components of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events were classified into disaster-causing factors (DF), disaster-bearing body (DB), disaster-prone environment (DE), and emergency activities (EA). The spatial and temporal expression models of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events were constructed according to the binary form of knowledge elements, and some scenarios of the events were expressed as examples. Finally, the five-dimensional scenario expression model of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events was proposed, consisting of component (K), denotation (N), feature (P), value (D), and time (T) dimensions.

Conclusions

The cross-domain application of the method of knowledge elements provides an innovative model demonstration for unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events, which is of great significance for improving the preparedness for healthcare-associated infection emergencies.

unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak  /  scenario expression  /  model construction  /  knowledge element  /  innovative model
马龙飞, 宁宁, 肖佳庆, 吴群红. 非常规医院感染暴发事件情景表达:基于知识元模型构建. 中国公共卫生, 2025 , 41 (10) : 1226 -1231 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1147332
Longfei MA, Ning NING, Jiaqing XIAO, Qunhong WU. Scenario expression of unconventional healthcare-associated infection outbreak events: construction based on knowledge element model[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2025 , 41 (10) : 1226 -1231 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1147332
非常规医院感染暴发事件是由特殊或新发病原体引起的外源性医院感染暴发事件,其发生前兆不充分,具有明显复杂性特征和潜在衍生危害,采用常规管理方式难以应对处置,且可能造成重大公共影响或严重后果[1],这就要求相关部门和单位时刻做好迎战准备。因此,开展基于“底线思维”的医院感染应急准备工作尤为重要。
情景构建理论以“假想敌”为依托,能够有效提升应急准备工作的针对性,是当前公共安全领域最前沿的科学问题之一[2–3],其情景表达方法能够帮助决策者充分认识事件的客观状态全貌。本研究运用知识元的理论方法将非常规医院感染暴发事件进行分解重构,获得对该事件最根本、最基础的认识,并基于此构建了事件的情景表达模型,旨在提升医院感染应急准备工作能力,对增强医院感染防控能力、降低事件危害具有重要意义。
本研究基于公共安全“三角形”框架[4](突发事件—承灾载体—应急管理),结合医疗环境的特殊性、复杂性,引入灾害学理论中的“孕灾环境”维度[5],形成非常规医院感染暴发事件情景构成要素的剖析结构,划分为致灾因子(disaster-causing factor, DF)、承灾体(disaster-bearing body, DB)、孕灾环境(disaster-prone environment, DE)与应急活动(emergency activities, EA),这与国内相关研究的划分逻辑形成呼应[6 – 7]。致灾因子DF表示引发非常规医院感染暴发事件的直接原因,主要由特殊或新发病原体引起,根据来源可以划分为实验源性、自然源性(包括输入性疫情与本地疫情)与社会源性(包括故意性与非故意性)。其中实验源性反映生物安全管理漏洞,包括实验室泄漏事件等;自然源性反映病原体自然传播特性,输入性疫情包括境外输入病例等,本地疫情主要包括“人兽共患病”案例等;社会源性反映社会行为因素,故意性包括生物恐怖事件等,非故意性包括外来物种入侵等。
承灾体DB表示致灾因子作用对象的集合,主要包括易感人群:患者、医务工作人员。
孕灾环境DE表示非常规医院感染暴发事件在发生前、发生中及发生后的环境因素集合,根据影响范围划分为微观—中观—宏观,其中微观层面侧重于个人、科室角度;中观层面关注医院的制度、布局等角度;宏观层面侧重社会环境角度。
应急活动EA表示人类为减轻非常规医院感染暴发事件的危害而投入的资源、采取的组织及技术措施,按照事前—事中—事后划分。
非常规医院感染暴发事件由n个时间序列对应的情景(scenario)片段构成,在空间上具有结构性,在时间上具有连续性。将非常规医院感染暴发事件表示为S,则该事件以时间顺序表示为:
$ \mathrm{\mathit{S}=(\mathit{S}}_{\mathrm{1}}\mathrm{,\mathit{\ S}}_{\mathrm{2}}\mathrm{,\ \dots,\ \mathit{S}}_{\mathrm{\mathit{i}}}\mathrm{,\ \dots,\mathit{\ S}}_{\mathrm{\mathit{n}}}\mathrm{)} $
S1表示事件发生的初始情景;Si表示事件在i时刻的情景;Sn表示事件的最终情景。
根据前文对非常规医院感染暴发事件情景构成要素的划分,假设该事件在某一时间点i下的情景为Si,则Si可以表示为:
$ \mathit{\mathit{\mathrm{\mathit{S}}_{\mathrm{\mathit{i}}}}}\mathrm{=(DF}_{\mathrm{\mathit{i}}}\mathrm{,\ DB}_{\mathrm{\mathit{i}}}\mathrm{,\ DE}_{\mathrm{\mathit{i}}}\mathrm{,\ EA}_{\mathrm{\mathit{i}}}\mathrm{)} $
本研究侧重于对非常规医院感染暴发事件情景的表达,运用知识元二元组的形式即可实现[8–9]。以情景Si下的致灾因子DFi为例,其概念知识元可以表示为:
$ \mathrm{\mathit{K}(DF}_{\mathrm{\mathit{i}}}\mathrm{)=[\mathit{N}(DF}_{\mathrm{\mathit{i}}}\mathrm{),\ \mathit{A}(DF}_{\mathrm{\mathit{i}}}\mathrm{)]} $
K(DFi)表示致灾因子DFi的知识元集,例如实验室泄漏事件的知识元集K(DFi1)、境外输入病例的知识元集K(DFi2)等;N(DFi)表示致灾因子DFi的概念名称集,例如实验室泄漏事件N(DFi1)、境外输入病例N(DFi2)等;A(DFi)表示致灾因子DFi的属性集,涵盖定性与定量两种属性类型,在本研究中,属性以定性描述为主。
设属性a∈A(DFi),其属性知识元可以表示为:Ka=(Pa, da, fa)
Pa表示致灾因子DFi属性中可描述的特性,例如出现或未出现、规范或不规范等;da表示属性可测量时的量纲;fa表示属性内部的函数关系。
对情景Si下的承灾体DBi、孕灾环境DEi及应急活动EAi进行表示,则非常规医院感染暴发事件情景Si见图1。
在现实的非常规医院感染暴发事件中,情景瞬息万变,整个事件可以看作是一帧帧情景的集合,见图2。
基于上述分析,本文提出一个基于“五维”的非常规医院感染暴发事件情景表达式,表示为:S=(K, N, P, D, T)。K表示“构成要素维”,是事件S在某一时间点下情景构成要素的集合;N表示“含义维”,是各情景构成要素含义的集合;P表示“特征维”,是各情景构成要素具体含义的属性特征集合;D表示“特征值维”,是各情景构成要素具体含义属性特征的特征值;T表示“时间维”,是非常规医院感染暴发事件全生命周期的时间序列集合。
选取符合本研究的非常规医院感染暴发事件为例,采用“五维”情景表达式对事件的状态信息进行表达。
模型由该事件n时刻下对应的情景(Sn)及其构成要素维(K)、含义维(N)、特征维(P)、特征值维(D)与时间维(T)构成。在模型的表达中,含义维(N)以其编码形式存在,如将(N2:境外输入病例)表示为(N2);特征维(P)与特征值维(D)以特征值编码形式存在,如将(P3:出现;P4:未出现)表示为(1;2)。
本研究作为跨学科理论衔接的突破性尝试,将知识元理论与情景构建理论融合应用于医院感染领域,关注点聚焦于“非常规性”,运用知识元的方法构建了非常规医院感染暴发事件“五维”情景表达模型。该模型在表达维度上与国内相关研究的思路相契合,同时填补了因表达模型缺失而导致的事件整体直观性不足的空白[10–11];为决策者快速掌握事件状态全貌、提供清晰的应急决策依据奠定了基础。本研究通过含义维(N)、特征维(P)与特征值维(D)的组合表达(例如“N2=1:出现境外输入病例”)来刻画事件的状态,这种对表达方式的结构化追求与传统预测模型依赖的结构化参数(如患者年龄、手术时长等[12–13])存在形式共性,弥补了传统模型在缺乏未知病原体参数时对“非常规”事件存在解释盲区的问题[14–15],在一定程度上实现了医院感染模型构建逻辑的学术突破。
致灾因子是自然或人为环境中对人类生命、社会稳定产生不利影响并引发突发事件的因素[16]。本研究的致灾因子DF特指引发非常规医院感染暴发事件的新发或特殊病原体。本研究对致灾因子的多源性进行了层次划分,并对其含义进行了具体表达(例如“N1:实验室泄漏事件”),对于难以量化的属性特征,本研究采用特征的二分类方法进行定性描述(例如“P1:出现;P2:未出现”),并设置相应的特征值(例如“1;2”),以便于计算机输入与识别。这一方法成功搭建了自然语言与机器语义之间的映射桥梁,不仅应对自然语言描述导致的计算机可读性障碍[17],还为非常规医院感染暴发事件案例库的建立提供可能。
承灾体是指突发事件中致灾因子作用的对象集合[18–19]。在本研究中,承灾体的含义主要聚焦于“N6:易感人群”,并根据人群特质进一步划分为“P11:医务工作人员”与“P12:住院患者”。在构建事件的案例库后,通过运用AI模型进行训练,能够实现情景匹配功能,例如,当输入“N6=2”时,案例库系统将会为医院决策者反馈与“易感人群为住院患者”情景吻合度较高的案例,并推送其相应的管控方案,从而辅助医院决策者进行科学决策。
孕灾环境是指在突发事件发生过程中,以自然环境为主,社会、人文及其他物理环境为辅的灾害背景[20]。在本研究中,孕灾环境DE表示事件在发生前、发生中及发生后的环境因素集合。相较于国内外相关研究对地理、气候等要素的侧重[21–22],本研究孕灾环境涵盖了微观层面(如“N8:医疗操作”“N9:隔离病房”)、中观层面(如“N11:医院布局”“N12:医院承载力”)以及宏观层面(如“H13:人口流动”“H14:政治环境”)。这不仅是对经典公共安全“三角形”框架在医疗领域的适配,更是通过引入灾害学理论构建了非常规医院感染暴发事件的分析范式,为情景表达提供了内容框架。此外,这种对宏观因素的综合考虑,对推动卫生健康委员会、交通及公安等部门数据共享平台的建设具有积极作用。
应急活动是决策主体在突发事件发生后为应对事件而采取的处置或预防措施[23] 。本研究中应急活动EA表示人类为减轻事件的危害而投入的资源、采取的组织及技术措施。在该事件中,某一特定时间点的情景可能成为影响事件严重程度的关键因素。本研究通过时间序列对事件情景进行刻画,要求决策者精准识别并分析关键时间点的情景,这与国内外相关研究中指出的决策时效性相呼应[24–25]。例如在情景S1下,若决策者能够采取科学及时的应急活动(如“N15:应急培训与演练”),则在后续的情景S2中,部分在S1中具有潜在影响的情景要素及其含义(如“N7:消毒灭菌工作”)可能不会显现或发挥作用;反之,若决策者采取的应急活动迟滞或失灵,前一情景S1中的各要素及含义之间可能会相互耦合产生新的交互作用,从而衍生出新的威胁,进一步加剧事件的危害程度。
本研究侧重于构建非常规医院感染暴发事件的情景表达模型。然而,当前基于知识元二元组形式的表达制约了对事件情景及内部各要素之间映射关系的解释力度。因此,未来研究应进一步探讨各情景要素之间的耦合关系,以揭示事件发生的内在机制,为提升非常规医院感染暴发事件的应急准备工作能力提供借鉴与指导。

参考文献 引证文献
排序方式:
1
韩智勇, 翁文国, 张维, 等. 重大研究计划“非常规突发事件应急管理研究”的科学背景、目标与组织管理[J]. 中国科学基金, 2009, 23(4): 215-220.
2
王永明. 情景构建是贯彻“底线思维”的重要抓手[J]. 劳动保护, 2019(3): 16-19.
3
刘铁民. 重大事故灾难情景构建理论与方法[J]. 复旦公共行政评论, 2013(2): 46-59.
4
范维澄, 刘奕, 翁文国. 公共安全科技的“三角形”框架与“4+1”方法学[J]. 科技导报, 2009, 27(6): 3.
5
史培军. 三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(3): 1-9.
6
刘秀. 基于本体的海上溢油事件情景建模[J]. 测绘与空间地理信息, 2020, 43(5): 30-32, 37.
7
巩前胜. “情景—应对”型应急决策中情景识别关键技术研究[D]. 西安: 西安科技大学, 2018.
8
张慧馨, 来永芳, 黄伟奇. 基于知识元的“脏弹”袭击事件情景构建[J]. 防化研究, 2022, 1(2): 74-78.
9
夏登友. 基于“情景—应对”的非常规突发灾害事故应急决策技术研究[D]. 北京: 北京理工大学, 2015.
10
史凌源. 铁路突发事件应急情景推演与事故动态分级研究[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2023.
11
张明红. 基于案例的非常规突发事件情景推理方法研究[D]. 武汉: 华中科技大学, 2016.
12
郭磊磊, 秦红英, 张艺, 等. 重症监护病区医院感染风险预测模型构建[J]. 中华医院感染学杂志, 2019, 29(8): 1240-1245.
13
李倩, 刘芸宏, 吴晓慧, 等. 基于决策树和Logistic回归预测出血性脑卒中手术后医院感染风险[J]. 中华医院感染学杂志, 2021, 31(23): 3556-3561.
14
杨静雯, 范建华, 陈萍, 等. 新型冠状病毒感染2种时间序列分析模型预测效果比较[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2023, 39(12): 1572-1578.
15
李琼芬, 黄甜, 王荣华, 等. 传染病疫情预测预警模型研究进展[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2013, 29(11): 1695-1697.
16
姜波, 张超, 陈涛, 等. 基于Bayes网络的暴雨情景构建和演化方法[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 61(6): 509-517.
17
戎军涛, 王丽华. 图书情报领域知识元技术研究述评[J]. 图书馆学研究, 2023(7): 9-15.
18
周愉峰, 李志, 李玉凤. 基于情景推演与故障贝叶斯网络的关键救灾设施中断机理[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2020, 29(4): 173-184.
19
沙勇忠, 付磊. 面向突发重大传染病事件的情景构建研究[J]. 文献与数据学报, 2022, 4(3): 23-38.
20
李锋, 王慧敏. 基于知识元的非常规突发洪水应急情景分析与表达研究[J]. 软科学, 2016, 30(4): 140-144.
21
曲毅, 仲秋雁, 马骁霏, 等. 基于情景的突发事件演变概率规则推理方法[J]. 系统工程学报, 2014, 29(4): 571-578.
22
张承伟, 李建伟, 陈雪龙. 基于知识元的突发事件情景建模[J]. 情报杂志, 2012, 31(7): 11-15, 43.
23
陈晨, 俞政, 张新梅. 考虑应急活动的非常规突发事件情景刻画研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2014, 24(10): 163-169.
24
姜卉. 应急实时决策中的情景表达及情景间关系研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报(社科版), 2012, 14(1): 48-52.
25
Zhu Y T, Yang Q, Fu L M, et al. Scenario construction and evolutionary analysis of nonconventional public health emergencies based on Bayesian networks[J]. Front Public Health, 2025, 13: 1489904.
2025年第41卷第10期
PDF下载
98
43
引用本文
BibTeX
文章信息
doi: 10.11847/zgggws1147332
  • 接收时间:2025-03-07
  • 首发时间:2026-10-25
  • 出版时间:2025-10-10
补充材料
相关文章
文章信息
作者
出版历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-03-07
  • 修回日期:2025-06-27
  • 录用日期:2025-08-02
基金
作者信息
    1哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,哈尔滨 150081
    2黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心消毒与医院感染控制所,哈尔滨 150030

通讯作者:

宁宁,E-mail:
参考文献
分享链接
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN/10.11847/zgggws1147332
分享至
全文二维码

扫描看全文

引用本文
BibTeX
本文的引用情况
2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
关闭全屏