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Article(id=1321169593977123471, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1321169578152014376, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1147323, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1741276800000, receivedDateStr=2025-03-07, revisedDate=1752595200000, revisedDateStr=2025-07-16, acceptedDate=1753977600000, acceptedDateStr=2025-08-01, onlineDate=1792920977348, onlineDateStr=2026-10-25, pubDate=1760025600000, pubDateStr=2025-10-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792920977348, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-25, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792920977348, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792920977348, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1321169578152014376, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2025', volume='41', issue='10', pageStart='1153', pageEnd='1280', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1760025600000', pubDateStr='2025-10-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792920973575, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792920973575, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1203, endPage=1207, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1321169595659039376, articleId=1321169593977123471, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Construction of an evaluation index system for branches of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association based on the Delphi method, columnId=1320427686514770171, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Survey and Report, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To establish an evaluation index system for branches of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association, providing a basis for the management and performance assessment of these branches.

Methods

On the basis of literature research and theoretical analysis, an initial evaluation index system for the branches was constructed. The Delphi method was used to consult 22 experts in two rounds from October to December 2024 and then determine the index system, and the analytic hierarchy process was employed to calculate the weights of the indexes.

Results

The positive coefficients of the experts in the two rounds of consultation were 100.00% and 90.91%, respectively, and the authority coefficient was 0.925. The mean scores of the importance of the indexes in the first and second rounds were (4.56 ± 0.28) and (4.59 ± 0.26), respectively. The coordination coefficients in the second round ranged from 0.294 to 0.393 (all P < 0.05), indicating that the expert opinions tended to be consistent. The finally determined index system was composed of 3 first-level indexes, 14 second-level indexes, and 27 third-level indexes, with the comprehensive weights of the third-level indexes ranging from 0.015 9 to 0.157 7.

Conclusions

The index system constructed in this study demonstrates high scientific rigor, reliability, and practical value. It comprehensively reflects the performance of branches of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association, providing a scientific basis for their assessment and evaluation. This system will contribute to promoting the high-quality development of China’s disease prevention and control efforts and advancing the Healthy China initiative.

, authors=Hang XU1, Chuansheng TIAN2, Xin YOU2, Chongyi WANG1, Guanglin LI2, Wuqi QIU1, 3, authorsList=Hang XU, Chuansheng TIAN, Xin YOU, Chongyi WANG, Guanglin LI, Wuqi QIU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Guanglin LI, Wuqi QIU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
LI Guanglin, E-mail:
QIU Wuqi, E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2025 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1321169596057498257, articleId=1321169593977123471, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=基于德尔菲法的中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系构建, columnId=1320427686770622717, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=调查报告与分析, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

构建中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系，为其科学管理和绩效评估提供依据。

方法

基于文献研究和理论分析初步构建分支机构考核评价指标体系，2024年10—12月采用德尔菲法选取22名专家进行两轮咨询以确定指标体系，利用层次分析法计算指标权重。

结果

两轮咨询的专家积极系数（100.00%和90.91%）、权威系数（0.925）均较高，第一轮和第二轮指标重要性评分均值分别为（4.56±0.28）分和（4.59±0.26）分，第二轮协调系数为0.294～0.393（均P<0.05），介于正常范围值，专家意见趋于一致。最终确定的指标体系包括3项一级指标、14项二级指标和27项三级指标，三级指标综合权重值在0.015 9～0.157 7。

结论

本研究构建的指标体系具有较高的科学性、可靠性和应用价值，能够全面反映中华预防医学会分支机构的工作成效，为其考核评价提供科学依据，有助于推动我国疾病预防控制事业的高质量发展和健康中国建设。

, authors=许航1, 田传胜2, 尤鑫2, 王重一1, 李光琳2, *, *, 邱五七1, 3, *, *, authorsList=许航, 田传胜, 尤鑫, 王重一, 李光琳, 邱五七, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=李光琳, 邱五七, authorNote=

许航（1996—），研究实习员，硕士，研究方向：卫生政策与管理

, correspAuthorsNote=
李光琳，E-mail：
邱五七，E-mail：
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许航（1996—），研究实习员，硕士，研究方向：卫生政策与管理

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country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3中华预防医学会卫生事业管理分会，上海 200032)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1321169600830616260, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169593977123471, language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=

Basic information of the experts consulted

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基本特征分组人数构成比/%
机构医疗卫生1254.55
科研机构731.82
高校29.09
疾病预防控制机构14.54
性别男1045.45
女1254.55
学位博士1777.28
硕士418.18
学士14.54
职称正高级1254.55
副高级731.82
中级313.63
专业领域疾病预防控制836.36
流行病学313.64
卫生政策与管理313.64
临床医学313.64
卫生应急14.54
其他418.18
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咨询专家的基本情况

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基本特征分组人数构成比/%
机构医疗卫生1254.55
科研机构731.82
高校29.09
疾病预防控制机构14.54
性别男1045.45
女1254.55
学位博士1777.28
硕士418.18
学士14.54
职称正高级1254.55
副高级731.82
中级313.63
专业领域疾病预防控制836.36
流行病学313.64
卫生政策与管理313.64
临床医学313.64
卫生应急14.54
其他418.18
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Results of Kendall′s W test

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专家咨询指标级别指标数/项W值χ2值P值
第一轮一级指标30.1074.7100.095
二级指标150.20560.217<0.001
三级指标290.217127.491<0.001
第二轮一级指标30.29411.7730.003
二级指标140.37091.307<0.001
三级指标270.393204.364<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1321169601069691591, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1321169593977123471, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

Kendall′s W检验结果

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专家咨询指标级别指标数/项W值χ2值P值
第一轮一级指标30.1074.7100.095
二级指标150.20560.217<0.001
三级指标290.217127.491<0.001
第二轮一级指标30.29411.7730.003
二级指标140.37091.307<0.001
三级指标270.393204.364<0.001
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Evaluation index system and index weights for branches of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association

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一级指标权重二级指标同级权重综合权重三级指标同级权重综合权重
组织管理0.339 1党建工作0.206 70.070 1组织建设与活动开展1.000 00.070 1
内部治理0.211 60.071 8按期换届0.253 50.018 2
常委会召开会议0.253 50.018 2
主任委员述职0.250 50.018 0
委员管理0.242 50.017 4
日常管理0.200 90.068 1遵纪守法0.337 60.023 0
落实学会工作部署0.340 90.023 2
领导重视情况0.321 50.021 9
经费管理与使用0.200 40.068 0筹资情况0.482 30.032 8
经费使用0.517 70.035 2
会员发展0.180 40.061 2年度新发展会员人数1.000 00.061 2
履职情况0.345 2学术交流0.151 30.052 2学术会议次数0.519 70.027 1
学术会议规模0.480 30.025 1
科学普及0.148 70.051 3科普活动次数0.520 70.026 7
科普活动影响力0.479 30.024 6
人才培养0.148 20.051 1专业人才培养0.502 30.025 7
举荐专业人才0.497 70.025 4
决策支撑0.145 10.050 1科技咨询0.334 10.016 7
承接政府转移职能0.317 50.015 9
编写团体标准、专家共识0.348 40.017 4
继续教育与培训0.144 30.049 8继续教育与培训0.509 90.025 4
参与继续教育人数0.490 10.024 4
国际交流0.129 80.044 8双边合作交流情况1.000 00.044 8
其他活动0.132 60.045 8其他特色/创新活动1.000 00.045 8
社会影响0.315 7社会认可度0.500 60.158 0有关部门评价0.470 60.074 4
媒体报道/新闻宣传0.529 40.083 7
社会贡献/效益0.499 40.157 7参与公益事业1.000 00.157 7
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中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系及权重

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一级指标权重二级指标同级权重综合权重三级指标同级权重综合权重
组织管理0.339 1党建工作0.206 70.070 1组织建设与活动开展1.000 00.070 1
内部治理0.211 60.071 8按期换届0.253 50.018 2
常委会召开会议0.253 50.018 2
主任委员述职0.250 50.018 0
委员管理0.242 50.017 4
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基于德尔菲法的中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系构建
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许航 1 , 田传胜 2 , 尤鑫 2 , 王重一 1 , 李光琳 2, *, * , 邱五七 1, 3, *, *
中国公共卫生 | 调查报告与分析 2025,41(10): 1203-1207
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中国公共卫生 |调查报告与分析 2025 , 41 (10) : 1203 -1207
基于德尔菲法的中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系构建
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许航1, 田传胜2, 尤鑫2, 王重一1, 李光琳2, *, * , 邱五七1, 3, *, *
作者信息
  • 1中国医学科学院/北京协和医学院医学信息研究所，北京 100020
  • 2中华预防医学会，北京 100062
  • 3中华预防医学会卫生事业管理分会，上海 200032
通讯作者:
李光琳，E-mail：
邱五七，E-mail：
作者简介:

许航（1996—），研究实习员，硕士，研究方向：卫生政策与管理

Construction of an evaluation index system for branches of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association based on the Delphi method
Hang XU1, Chuansheng TIAN2, Xin YOU2, Chongyi WANG1, Guanglin LI2 , Wuqi QIU1, 3
Affiliations
  • 1Institute of Medical Information, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100020, China
  • 2Chinese Preventive Medicine Association, Beijing 100062, China
  • 3Health Management Branch of Chinese Preventive Medicine Association, Shanghai 200032, China
    • Corresponding Author:
    LI Guanglin, E-mail:
    QIU Wuqi, E-mail:
出版时间: 2025-10-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1147323
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摘要
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目的

构建中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系，为其科学管理和绩效评估提供依据。

方法

基于文献研究和理论分析初步构建分支机构考核评价指标体系，2024年10—12月采用德尔菲法选取22名专家进行两轮咨询以确定指标体系，利用层次分析法计算指标权重。

结果

两轮咨询的专家积极系数（100.00%和90.91%）、权威系数（0.925）均较高，第一轮和第二轮指标重要性评分均值分别为（4.56±0.28）分和（4.59±0.26）分，第二轮协调系数为0.294～0.393（均P<0.05），介于正常范围值，专家意见趋于一致。最终确定的指标体系包括3项一级指标、14项二级指标和27项三级指标，三级指标综合权重值在0.015 9～0.157 7。

结论

本研究构建的指标体系具有较高的科学性、可靠性和应用价值，能够全面反映中华预防医学会分支机构的工作成效，为其考核评价提供科学依据，有助于推动我国疾病预防控制事业的高质量发展和健康中国建设。

分支机构  /  考核评价  /  指标体系  /  德尔菲法  /  中华预防医学会
Objective

To establish an evaluation index system for branches of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association, providing a basis for the management and performance assessment of these branches.

Methods

On the basis of literature research and theoretical analysis, an initial evaluation index system for the branches was constructed. The Delphi method was used to consult 22 experts in two rounds from October to December 2024 and then determine the index system, and the analytic hierarchy process was employed to calculate the weights of the indexes.

Results

The positive coefficients of the experts in the two rounds of consultation were 100.00% and 90.91%, respectively, and the authority coefficient was 0.925. The mean scores of the importance of the indexes in the first and second rounds were (4.56 ± 0.28) and (4.59 ± 0.26), respectively. The coordination coefficients in the second round ranged from 0.294 to 0.393 (all P < 0.05), indicating that the expert opinions tended to be consistent. The finally determined index system was composed of 3 first-level indexes, 14 second-level indexes, and 27 third-level indexes, with the comprehensive weights of the third-level indexes ranging from 0.015 9 to 0.157 7.

Conclusions

The index system constructed in this study demonstrates high scientific rigor, reliability, and practical value. It comprehensively reflects the performance of branches of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association, providing a scientific basis for their assessment and evaluation. This system will contribute to promoting the high-quality development of China’s disease prevention and control efforts and advancing the Healthy China initiative.

branches  /  assessment and evaluation  /  index system  /  Delphi method  /  Chinese Preventive Medicine Association
许航, 田传胜, 尤鑫, 王重一, 李光琳, 邱五七. 基于德尔菲法的中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系构建. 中国公共卫生, 2025 , 41 (10) : 1203 -1207 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1147323
Hang XU, Chuansheng TIAN, Xin YOU, Chongyi WANG, Guanglin LI, Wuqi QIU. Construction of an evaluation index system for branches of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association based on the Delphi method[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2025 , 41 (10) : 1203 -1207 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1147323
正文
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社会组织是我国社会主义现代化建设的重要力量[1]。近年来，国家高度重视社会组织规范化发展，相继出台了系列政策文件。党的二十届三中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》强调推进社会组织参与社会治理，健全社会组织管理制度[2]，为新时代社会组织高质量发展指明了方向。中华预防医学会作为我国公共卫生与预防医学领域最大的科技社团，其分支机构在推动学科发展、促进学术交流、服务政府决策、普及健康知识等方面发挥着不可替代的作用。中华预防医学会自1987年成立以来逐渐成立了多个分支机构，主要集中在传统公共卫生领域，如流行病学、传染病防控、环境卫生等。近年来，中华预防医学会分支机构数量不断增加，尤其受突发公共卫生事件影响，新增了多个与疫情防控、疫苗研发、全球卫生、健康大数据等相关的分支机构，充分体现了学会服务国家战略需求的使命担当。截至2025年3月，中华预防医学会已发展会员13万余人，分支机构达95个，涉及领域从单一疾病防控向综合健康管理转变、从疾病治疗向健康促进转变、从国内视野向全球视野转变、从传统公共卫生向新兴领域延伸。然而，随着中华预防医学会分支机构的快速扩张和涉及领域的不断拓展，逐渐暴露出不同分支机构发展不充分、不均衡的问题，如何科学评价分支机构的工作成效、引导其健康发展，已成为当前亟待解决的重要问题。新时代背景下，随着医学模式的转变，公共卫生与预防医学的深入融合成为卫生事业发展的必然趋势[3–4]。科学评价中华预防医学会分支机构是促进医防融合、构建大卫生大健康格局的迫切需要。而目前国内关于社会组织分支机构考核评价的研究较为匮乏。因此，本研究旨在应用德尔菲法，构建一套科学、合理、可操作的中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系，为加强中华预防医学会及其他社会组织分支机构管理和促进分支机构健康发展提供科学依据，助力国家疾病预防控制事业的高质量发展和健康中国建设。
1　对象与方法
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1.1　文献研究与专家咨询
首先，课题组前期通过大量文献查阅和分析研究，建立考核评价指标池。以“学会”“协会”“社会组织”“分支机构”“考核”“评价”“指标体系”“society association”“social organization”“branch”“assessment”“evaluation”“index system”等为中英文关键词，在知网、万方、Web of Science、PubMed等国内外数据库全面检索关于学协会分支机构考核评价指标相关的研究进展，同时浏览中国科学技术协会、中国标准化协会、中华医学会等具备一定影响力的知名社会团体官方网站并检索分支机构管理办法和考核评价相关文件，结合民政部对社会团体分支机构管理的要求和规范，梳理汇总学会分支机构考核评价的相关指标，形成指标池。其次，通过专家咨询构建学会分支机构考核评价指标体系基本框架。经课题组内部研讨，以及召开专家座谈会、个人访谈、电话咨询等形式，筛选指标并确定初始指标体系框架。
1.2　德尔菲法
于2024年10—12月采用德尔菲法进行两轮专家咨询，修订和完善初始指标体系并确定最终指标体系。
1.2.1　专家选择
根据德尔菲法对专家人数的要求[5]，结合指标体系考核评价对象，从中华预防医学会分支机构中选取22名专家参与咨询，专家纳入标准：①从事公共卫生、卫生事业管理、临床医学等相关专业工作或研究；②具有副高级及以上职称或中级职称且具有8年以上工作经验；③愿意全程参与咨询。
1.2.2　咨询表设计
第一轮专家咨询表共包括3部分：研究背景与初始指标体系介绍；专家基本情况，如性别、年龄、专业领域、工作年限等；各级指标评分，采用Likert 5级评分法，从重要性、可行性方面予以指标评分，同时请专家对指标的熟悉程度和判断依据自评。第二轮专家咨询表主要依据第一轮咨询表修改，并附指标修改情况说明和指标第一轮重要性均分作参考。
1.2.3　指标筛选
根据指标重要性得分均值和变异系数筛选指标。第一轮专家咨询的指标纳入标准为：指标重要性均分≥3.5且变异系数≤0.25；仅满足一项时结合专家书面意见和课题组讨论确定是否纳入和修改；两项均不满足则直接剔除。为提高指标质量，第二轮专家咨询的指标纳入标准提高为：指标重要性均分>4且变异系数≤0.25[6]。
1.3　层次分析法
基于德尔菲专家咨询结果，采用层次分析法（analytic hierarchy process, AHP）确定学会分支机构考核评价指标权重[7]。通过建立多级层次结构模型，依据专家对指标重要性的判断结果，对同一级别下的各项指标进行两两比较，构建判断矩阵并计算各级指标权重值。
1.4　统计分析方法
使用Excel整理数据，并运用SPSS 27.0软件进行数据分析。（1）采用一般描述性统计方法分析专家基本情况。（2）采用专家积极系数、权威系数、协调系数分析咨询专家的可靠性，其中：专家积极系数（Cj）通过专家咨询表的回收率表示，一般当Cj≥70%时认为专家的积极程度较高[8]；权威系数（Cr）主要由专家判断依据（Ca）和熟悉程度（Cs）测算，Cr=（Ca+Cs）/2，通常认为Cr≥0.7时专家权威程度较好；通过Kendall′s W函数计算协调系数（W），W介于0～1之间，W值越大，表示专家意见一致性越好，并采用χ2检验进行显著性检验，当P<0.05时认为专家意见具有一致性；通过指标重要性评分的算术均值和变异系数表示集中程度，评分均值越高则指标重要性越高，变异系数越小则专家意见越集中[8]。（3）基于层次分析法计算指标权重，构建指标重要性两两比较的判断矩阵，利用一致性指数（CI）和一致性比例（CR）两个指标检验判断矩阵的一致性，CI值越小，说明一致性越好，当CI=0时，判断矩阵具有完全一致性，CR<0.1表示该判断矩阵通过一致性检验。对判断矩阵内各指标作归一化处理并计算指标权重[7]。以α=0.05作为显著性检验水准。
2　结　果
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2.1　专家基本情况（表1）
本研究遴选22名专家，平均年龄（45.68±8.41）岁，平均工作年限（19.36±9.77）年。
2.2　专家积极程度和权威程度
第一轮咨询向遴选的22名专家发放问卷，回收问卷22份，专家积极程度100.00%；第二轮咨询再次向22名专家发放问卷、回收问卷20份，专家积极程度90.91%；两轮咨询均有多位专家提出具体修改意见或建议，专家参与咨询的积极程度较高。咨询专家对指标的熟悉程度（Cs=0.91）、判断依据（Ca=0.94）、权威系数（Cr=0.925>0.7）均表明参与咨询的专家具有良好的权威性。
2.3　专家意见协调程度和集中程度（表2）
第一轮专家对于一级指标的重要性意见尚未达成一致（P>0.05），二级指标和三级指标的意见较为一致（P<0.05）。而第二轮咨询后，专家对各级指标的意见比较一致（均P<0.05），同时各级指标W值均高于第一轮，专家意见一致性有所提高，具有较高的可信度。第一轮指标重要性评分均值为（4.56±0.28）分，第二轮（4.59±0.26）分略有提高，最终指标重要性评分的变异系数（0.04～0.19）表明专家意见较为集中。
2.4　指标体系构建及指标修订情况
2.4.1　初步构建指标体系
根据文献研究和专家咨询结果，从指标池中筛选并构建初步指标体系，包括一级指标3项（组织管理、履职情况、社会影响）；二级指标15项（党建工作、内部治理、日常管理、经费管理与使用、会员发展、学术交流、科学普及、人才培养、决策支撑、继续教育与培训、科研活动、国际交流、其他活动、社会认可度、社会贡献/效应）；三级指标29项。
2.4.2　指标体系修订
第一轮专家咨询后，根据纳入排除标准，删除三级指标2项（科研项目在账经费、学术论文发表）。由于这两项三级指标位于同一项二级指标“科研活动”下，且该二级指标下无其他三级指标，故经课题组讨论，删除二级指标1项（科研活动）。根据专家意见和课题组讨论，修改二级指标1项，将“社会贡献/效应”修改为“社会贡献/效益”，并结合专家意见修改部分指标的指标说明。修订后指标体系涵盖一级指标3项，二级指标14项，三级指标27项。第二轮专家咨询后，各级指标均符合纳入标准，故全部纳入，最终确定的指标体系包括一级指标3项、二级指标14项、三级指标27项。
2.5　指标权重确定
基于构建的中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系，运用AHP确定指标权重。首先，通过对各指标重要性均值的两两比较，建立两两比较的判断矩阵，一、二、三级指标分别形成1、3、9个判断矩阵。其次，对各个判断矩阵进行一致性检验，所有矩阵的CI<0.1、CR<0.1，均具有良好的一致性逻辑。最终确定中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系及其权重（见表3）。
3　讨　论
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本研究构建的中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系具有良好的全面性、科学性和可信度。首先，本研究前期通过大量文献查阅[9–11]，全面梳理了国内外相关研究、有关部门和社会组织政策文件中涉及分支机构考核评价的指标，并结合分支机构工作职责和中华预防医学会管理实际需求，建立指标池，确保指标体系的全面性。其次，采用德尔菲法进行两轮专家咨询，根据专家意见和课题组讨论修订和完善指标，构建中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系，共包括组织管理、履职情况、社会影响3项一级指标和14项二级指标、27项三级指标，保证指标的代表性和可操作性。另外，研究结果显示，遴选的专家大多为副高级及以上职称，主要从事疾病预防控制、流行病学等专业领域并有较长时间的工作经验，具备较高的权威性，并且专家参与程度较高、意见较为一致，专家意见具有较高的可靠性。
指标体系在内容设计上充分考虑了中华预防医学会分支机构的核心职能和工作重点。指标体系涵盖了分支机构的管理能力、学术科普、教育培训和社会服务等多个维度，能够全面反映分支机构的综合绩效。如二级指标“内部治理”下设置了“按期换届”“委员管理”“主任委员述职”等三级指标，这也与张云瀚[12]研究指出的社团组织内部治理规范化构成要素基本一致。本研究通过层次分析法量化分析各项指标的重要性，确保权重分配的合理性和科学性。指标权重的大小在一定程度上反映影响分支机构管理与运营效果的关键因素[13]。3项一级指标权重大小接近，其中“履职情况”权重最大为0.345 2，说明分支机构在完成业务工作的同时也要重视自身建设和社会服务。“履职情况”下设二级指标中“学术交流”同级权重最大为0.151 3，提示分支机构重视学术体系建设，举办学术会议和学术交流活动是科技类协会工作的重中之重[14]。分支机构应持续关注国内外科技研究和学术前沿动态才能保持学会及分支机构的学术引领力[15]。整体来看，这些指标不仅具有较高的代表性，还能够有效引导分支机构在实际工作中注重全面发展。
同时，指标体系具有较高的创新性和现实应用价值。目前，国内缺乏对社会组织尤其是科技类社会组织分支机构考核评价指标体系的研究。本研究创新性地采用德尔菲法研究构建中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系，丰富了相关的理论研究；同时，构建的指标体系具有较高的现实应用价值。一方面，指标体系为中华预防医学会及其他社会组织分支机构的考核评价提供了科学依据和实用工具，有助于学会管理层全面了解分支机构工作现状，为资源配置和决策支持提供数据支撑；推动社会组织评估体系的规范化和标准化进程，促进各领域社会组织健康有序发展。另一方面，指标体系能够有效引导中华预防医学会分支机构聚焦国家重大战略需求，明确工作重点和发展方向，持续强化学科建设，全面提升分支机构服务能力和行业影响力，不断深入推进医防融合，推动构建强大的公共卫生体系，为我国疾病预防控制事业的高质量发展和健康中国建设提供坚实的支撑与保障。
另外，本研究存在一定的局限性，一是通过德尔菲法和层次分析法初步建立了中华预防医学会分支机构考核评价指标体系，但各项指标的具体内容和评价标准仍需进一步细化和完善，以确保其在实际应用中的可操作性；二是德尔菲专家咨询中，专家意见的取舍和最终决策由课题组主导，可能存在一定的主观影响；三是由于中华预防医学会分支机构数量众多，且涉及的学科和领域存在较大差异，指标体系在不同分支机构间的适用性和可操作性仍需进一步验证和优化。

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2025年第41卷第10期
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doi: 10.11847/zgggws1147323
  • 接收时间：2025-03-07
  • 首发时间：2026-10-25
  • 出版时间：2025-10-10
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  • 收稿日期：2025-03-07
  • 修回日期：2025-07-16
  • 录用日期：2025-08-01
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    1中国医学科学院/北京协和医学院医学信息研究所，北京 100020
    2中华预防医学会，北京 100062
    3中华预防医学会卫生事业管理分会，上海 200032

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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