Article(id=1320442660901466402, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320442616123081022, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1146893, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1736265600000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-08, revisedDate=1745510400000, revisedDateStr=2025-04-25, acceptedDate=1756310400000, acceptedDateStr=2025-08-28, onlineDate=1792747662996, onlineDateStr=2026-10-23, pubDate=1767974400000, pubDateStr=2026-01-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792747662996, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792747662996, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792747662996, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1320442616123081022, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2026', volume='42', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='128', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1767974400000', pubDateStr='2026-01-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792747652321, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792748136930, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1320444648791851086, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320442616123081022, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1320444648791851087, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320442616123081022, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=9, endPage=12, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1320442661090210083, articleId=1320442660901466402, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=The incidence of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023: an analysis based on spatial clustering, columnId=1320442616970330431, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Special Report—Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the incidence and spatial clustering of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023, and to provide evidence for anthrax prevention and control.

Methods

Data on 883 reported anthrax cases in Gansu province from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2023 were collected through the “Surveillance and Reporting Management” module of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend of anthrax incidence. ArcGIS 10.8.2 and FleXScan 3.1.2 were used for global spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning, respectively.

Results

From 2014 to 2023, a total of 883 skin anthrax cases were reported in Gansu province. The number of cases in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 was 93, 104, 128, 117, 66, 41, 37, 84, 93, and 120, respectively. The incidences of anthrax were 0.36/100 000, 0.40/100 000, 0.49/100 000, 0.45/100 000, 0.25/100 000, 0.16/100 000, 0.14/100 000, 0.34/100 000, 0.35/100 000, and 0.48/100 000, respectively. The incidence increased first, subsequently decreased, and then increased, but the difference was not statistically significant (P > 0.05). Anthrax cases in Gansu province occurred throughout the year, and the peak of incidence occurred from July to October each year, when 501 cases were reported, accounting for 56.74% of the total number of anthrax cases. The ratio of male-to-female cases was 1.46:1. The disease predominantly affected young adults aged 20–49 (68.74%). The majority (82.33%) of cases occurred among herdsmen. The number of cases in Gannan prefecture ranked the first in the province (92.19%). The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was certain spatial clustering of anthrax incidence in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023. The global Moran′s I indices in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, were 0.438, 0.592, 0.590, 0.639, 0.577, 0.511, 0.530, 0.091, 0.565, and 0.357, respectively (all P < 0.05). FleXScan 3.1.2 software scanned 3 clusters, mainly located in some counties and districts of Gannan prefecture in the southwest of Gansu province and Dingxi city. The first-level cluster area included Maqu county, Luqu county, and Xiahe county in Gannan prefecture, mainly pastoral areas, accounting for 80.63% of the reported cases. Two secondary cluster areas were Hezuo city, Zhuoni county, and Diebu county in Gannan prefecture as well as Minxian county in Dingxi city and Lintan county in Gannan prefecture, accounting for 9.51% and 4.98% of cases, respectively.

Conclusions

The incidence of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023 was high and has increased in the past three years. Males, young adults, and herdsmen were the key populations for anthrax prevention and control. The primary cluster areas concentrated in Maqu county, Luqu county, and Xiahe county of Gannan prefecture in the southwest of Gansu province. It is necessary to conduct comprehensive monitoring in the aforementioned counties.

, authors=Jianing KOU, Zhao XIAGN, Xuxia WANG, Jinxi YAO, Yao CHENG, Xiaoting YANG, Xiaoshu ZHANG, authorsList=Jianing KOU, Zhao XIAGN, Xuxia WANG, Jinxi YAO, Yao CHENG, Xiaoting YANG, Xiaoshu ZHANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Xiaoshu ZHANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
ZHANG Xiaoshu, E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2026 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1320442661367034148, articleId=1320442660901466402, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病情况:基于空间聚集性分析, columnId=1320442617125519681, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=专题报道——传染病预防与控制, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

分析2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病情况和空间聚集性,为炭疽防控策略的制定提供参考依据。

方法

收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统“监测报告管理”模块中甘肃省2014年1月1日—2023年12月31日报告的883例炭疽发病病例相关数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析炭疽发病率趋势变化,并应用ArcGIS 10.8.2软件和FleXScan 3.1.2 软件进行全局空间自相关和空间扫描分析。

结果

2014—2023年甘肃省报告的883例炭疽病例均为皮肤炭疽,2014、2015、2016、2017、2018、2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年的发病数依次为93、104、128、117、66、41、37、84、93和120例;发病率分别为0.36/10 万、0.40/10 万、0.49/10 万、0.45/10 万、0.25/10 万、0.16/10 万、0.14/10 万、0.34/10 万、0.35/10 万和0.48/10 万,发病率呈先升后降再上升趋势,但差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);甘肃省炭疽全年均有发病,发病高峰为每年7—10月,共报告501例,占全部炭疽发病数的56.74%;男女性发病比为1.46:1,以20~49岁青壮年居多(占68.74%),牧民发病例数最多(占82.33%),甘南州发病数居全省首位(占92.19%);全局空间自相关分析结果显示,2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病在空间上存在一定的聚集性,2014、2015、2016、2017、2018、2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年全局Moran′s I指数依次为0.438、0.592、0.590、0.639、0.577、0.511、0.530、0.091、0.565和0.357(均P<0.05);FleXScan 3.1.2软件扫描出3个聚集区,主要位于甘肃省西南部甘南州及定西市的部分县区,一级聚集区为甘南州玛曲县、碌曲县和夏河县,主要为牧区,报告病例数占80.63%;二级聚集区2个,分别为甘南州合作市、卓尼县和迭部县以及定西市岷县和甘南州临潭县,报告病例数分别占9.51%和4.98%。

结论

甘肃省2014—2023年炭疽发病水平较高且近3年有所上升。男性、青壮年和牧民为炭疽防控的重点人群。一级聚集区主要位于甘肃省西南部的甘南州玛曲县、碌曲县和夏河县,应全面加强上述县的监测工作。

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寇嘉宁(1985—),主管医师,硕士,研究方向:急性传染病监测预警

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张晓曙,E-mail:
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Results of FlexScan spatial aggregation scanning for anthrax cases in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023

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聚集级别聚集地区报告发病数RR值RLLR值P值
一级聚集区甘南州(玛曲县、碌曲县、夏河县)712119.073 123.590.001
二级聚集区甘南州(合作市、卓尼县、迭部县)849.25113.870.001
定西市(岷县)、甘南州(临潭县)442.109.940.011
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甘肃省2014—2023年炭疽病例FlexScan空间聚集扫描结果

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聚集级别聚集地区报告发病数RR值RLLR值P值
一级聚集区甘南州(玛曲县、碌曲县、夏河县)712119.073 123.590.001
二级聚集区甘南州(合作市、卓尼县、迭部县)849.25113.870.001
定西市(岷县)、甘南州(临潭县)442.109.940.011
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2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病情况:基于空间聚集性分析
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寇嘉宁 , 向昭 , 王旭霞 , 姚进喜 , 成瑶 , 杨筱婷 , 张晓曙 *, *
中国公共卫生 | 专题报道——传染病预防与控制 2026,42(1): 9-12
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中国公共卫生 |专题报道——传染病预防与控制 2026 , 42 (1) : 9 -12
2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病情况:基于空间聚集性分析
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寇嘉宁(1985—),主管医师,硕士,研究方向:急性传染病监测预警

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寇嘉宁, 向昭, 王旭霞, 姚进喜, 成瑶, 杨筱婷, 张晓曙*, *
作者信息
  • 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心(甘肃省预防医学科学院),兰州 730000
通讯作者:
张晓曙,E-mail:
作者简介:

寇嘉宁(1985—),主管医师,硕士,研究方向:急性传染病监测预警

The incidence of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023: an analysis based on spatial clustering
Jianing KOU, Zhao XIAGN, Xuxia WANG, Jinxi YAO, Yao CHENG, Xiaoting YANG, Xiaoshu ZHANG
Affiliations
  • Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Gansu Academy of Preventive Medicine), Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Corresponding Author:
    ZHANG Xiaoshu, E-mail:
出版时间: 2026-01-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146893
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目的

分析2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病情况和空间聚集性,为炭疽防控策略的制定提供参考依据。

方法

收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统“监测报告管理”模块中甘肃省2014年1月1日—2023年12月31日报告的883例炭疽发病病例相关数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析炭疽发病率趋势变化,并应用ArcGIS 10.8.2软件和FleXScan 3.1.2 软件进行全局空间自相关和空间扫描分析。

结果

2014—2023年甘肃省报告的883例炭疽病例均为皮肤炭疽,2014、2015、2016、2017、2018、2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年的发病数依次为93、104、128、117、66、41、37、84、93和120例;发病率分别为0.36/10 万、0.40/10 万、0.49/10 万、0.45/10 万、0.25/10 万、0.16/10 万、0.14/10 万、0.34/10 万、0.35/10 万和0.48/10 万,发病率呈先升后降再上升趋势,但差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);甘肃省炭疽全年均有发病,发病高峰为每年7—10月,共报告501例,占全部炭疽发病数的56.74%;男女性发病比为1.46:1,以20~49岁青壮年居多(占68.74%),牧民发病例数最多(占82.33%),甘南州发病数居全省首位(占92.19%);全局空间自相关分析结果显示,2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病在空间上存在一定的聚集性,2014、2015、2016、2017、2018、2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年全局Moran′s I指数依次为0.438、0.592、0.590、0.639、0.577、0.511、0.530、0.091、0.565和0.357(均P<0.05);FleXScan 3.1.2软件扫描出3个聚集区,主要位于甘肃省西南部甘南州及定西市的部分县区,一级聚集区为甘南州玛曲县、碌曲县和夏河县,主要为牧区,报告病例数占80.63%;二级聚集区2个,分别为甘南州合作市、卓尼县和迭部县以及定西市岷县和甘南州临潭县,报告病例数分别占9.51%和4.98%。

结论

甘肃省2014—2023年炭疽发病水平较高且近3年有所上升。男性、青壮年和牧民为炭疽防控的重点人群。一级聚集区主要位于甘肃省西南部的甘南州玛曲县、碌曲县和夏河县,应全面加强上述县的监测工作。

炭疽  /  发病  /  空间聚集性  /  甘肃省
Objective

To analyze the incidence and spatial clustering of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023, and to provide evidence for anthrax prevention and control.

Methods

Data on 883 reported anthrax cases in Gansu province from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2023 were collected through the “Surveillance and Reporting Management” module of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend of anthrax incidence. ArcGIS 10.8.2 and FleXScan 3.1.2 were used for global spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning, respectively.

Results

From 2014 to 2023, a total of 883 skin anthrax cases were reported in Gansu province. The number of cases in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 was 93, 104, 128, 117, 66, 41, 37, 84, 93, and 120, respectively. The incidences of anthrax were 0.36/100 000, 0.40/100 000, 0.49/100 000, 0.45/100 000, 0.25/100 000, 0.16/100 000, 0.14/100 000, 0.34/100 000, 0.35/100 000, and 0.48/100 000, respectively. The incidence increased first, subsequently decreased, and then increased, but the difference was not statistically significant (P > 0.05). Anthrax cases in Gansu province occurred throughout the year, and the peak of incidence occurred from July to October each year, when 501 cases were reported, accounting for 56.74% of the total number of anthrax cases. The ratio of male-to-female cases was 1.46:1. The disease predominantly affected young adults aged 20–49 (68.74%). The majority (82.33%) of cases occurred among herdsmen. The number of cases in Gannan prefecture ranked the first in the province (92.19%). The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was certain spatial clustering of anthrax incidence in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023. The global Moran′s I indices in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, were 0.438, 0.592, 0.590, 0.639, 0.577, 0.511, 0.530, 0.091, 0.565, and 0.357, respectively (all P < 0.05). FleXScan 3.1.2 software scanned 3 clusters, mainly located in some counties and districts of Gannan prefecture in the southwest of Gansu province and Dingxi city. The first-level cluster area included Maqu county, Luqu county, and Xiahe county in Gannan prefecture, mainly pastoral areas, accounting for 80.63% of the reported cases. Two secondary cluster areas were Hezuo city, Zhuoni county, and Diebu county in Gannan prefecture as well as Minxian county in Dingxi city and Lintan county in Gannan prefecture, accounting for 9.51% and 4.98% of cases, respectively.

Conclusions

The incidence of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023 was high and has increased in the past three years. Males, young adults, and herdsmen were the key populations for anthrax prevention and control. The primary cluster areas concentrated in Maqu county, Luqu county, and Xiahe county of Gannan prefecture in the southwest of Gansu province. It is necessary to conduct comprehensive monitoring in the aforementioned counties.

anthrax  /  incidence  /  spatial clustering  /  Gansu province
寇嘉宁, 向昭, 王旭霞, 姚进喜, 成瑶, 杨筱婷, 张晓曙. 2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病情况:基于空间聚集性分析. 中国公共卫生, 2026 , 42 (1) : 9 -12 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146893
Jianing KOU, Zhao XIAGN, Xuxia WANG, Jinxi YAO, Yao CHENG, Xiaoting YANG, Xiaoshu ZHANG. The incidence of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023: an analysis based on spatial clustering[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2026 , 42 (1) : 9 -12 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146893
炭疽是由炭疽杆菌引起的一种人畜共患急性传染病[1],人类常因接触染病牲畜而感染,严重威胁着人类健康和畜牧业发展。研究显示,2017—2019年中国炭疽累计病例数前3位的省份为甘肃省、四川省和青海省[2],且全国每年均有因宰杀、剥食病死牲畜感染皮肤炭疽的暴发疫情发生[3–6]。甘肃省作为炭疽历史疫区,自1958年有记载以来,疫情持续多年且从未间断[7]。为分析2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病情况和空间聚集性,为炭疽防控策略的制定提供参考依据,本研究收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统“监测报告管理”模块中2014年1月1日—2023年12月31日甘肃省报告的883例炭疽发病病例相关数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析炭疽发病率趋势变化,并应用ArcGIS 10.8.2软件和FleXScan 3.1.2 软件进行全局空间自相关和空间扫描分析。结果报告如下。
炭疽病例数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统“监测报告管理”模块,筛选其中发病日期为“2014年1月1日—2023年12月31日”且现住址为“甘肃省”的疾病病种为“炭疽”的报告卡,共搜集到883条有效数据,数据中包括报告卡编号、病例的基本资料、发病日期及诊断情况、病例诊断类型、报告和审核单位等信息;人口学数据来源于第七次全国人口普查数据[8]。本研究经甘肃省疾病预防控制伦理委员会审查批准,批号为:甘疾伦2023年第[005]号。
采用描述流行病学方法对收集的883条病例数据进行汇总整理,按照“发病日期”分析报告发病水平和趋势变化,描述时间、人群和地区分布特征。采用Joinpoint 5.2.0软件进行Joinpoint回归分析,采用对数线性模型计算年度变化百分比(annual percent change, APC)和平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change, AAPC),对炭疽发病率情况进行趋势分析[9]。采用ArcGIS 10.8.2软件进行县区全局自相关分析,获得Moran′s I及其对应的Z值和P值,衡量炭疽在空间分布上的异质性。Moran′s I 取值范围为−1~1,I值>0提示空间呈正相关,其值越大表明空间相关性越明显;I值<0提示空间呈负相关,其值越小表明空间差异越大;I值=0代表空间不相关,呈现随机分布[10]。采用FleXScan 3.1.2软件进行空间扫描,探测空间聚集性及空间聚集区域,该方法采用不作限定、不规则和可移动的窗口来进行动态扫描,扫描区域更加灵活和接近实际,通过构建检验统计量限制性对数似然比(restricted log likelihood ratio, RLLR),利用蒙特卡罗模拟法计算概率P值,将RLLR值最高且差异有统计学意义的区域定义为一级聚集区,其他扫描到的有统计学意义的区域定义为二级聚集区[11–12],空间聚集区域窗口最大值K设置为15,模型设置为“Poisson”,蒙特卡罗模拟999次,检验水准为双侧检验α=0.05。
2014—2023年甘肃省共报告炭疽病例883例,年均发病率为 0.34/10万;其中,确诊病例69例(7.81%),临床诊断病例667例(75.54%),疑似病例147例(16.65%);均为皮肤炭疽,无肠炭疽和肺炭疽病例。甘肃省2014、2015、2016、2017、2018、2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年炭疽发病数依次为93、104、128、117、66、41、37、84、93和120例,发病率依次为0.36/10 万、0.40/10 万、0.49/10 万、0.45/10 万、0.25/10 万、0.16/10 万、0.14/10 万、0.34/10 万、0.35/10 万和0.48/10 万。2014—2016年发病数和发病率呈上升趋势,2017—2020年呈逐年下降趋势,2021—2023年呈上升趋势(χ2趋势=2.953,P>0.05)。Joinpoint回归分析结果显示,甘肃省炭疽发病率呈先升后降再上升趋势,但趋势变化差异无统计学意义(AAPC=3.77%,t=0.23,P>0.05);在2016年和2019年发现Joinpoint点,其中2014—2016年发病率呈上升趋势(APC=27.00%,t=0.62,P>0.05),2016—2019年发病率呈下降趋势(APC= −35.08%,t= −1.13,P>0.05);2019—2023年发病率呈上升趋势(APC=33.35%,t=2.37,P>0.05),但趋势变化差异均无统计学意义。
2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽全年均有发病,且具有明显的季节性。其中,1、2、3、4、5、6、7、8、9、10、11和12月发病数分别为38、33、33、50、60、60、112、206、98、85、66和42例,分别占全部发病数的4.30%、3.74%、3.74%、5.66%、6.80%、6.80%、12.68%、23.33%、11.10%、9.63%、7.47%和4.76%;1—3月份炭疽发病数为全年最少,4月份起发病开始增多,8月份达发病高峰,报告病例主要集中在7—10月份,此期间共报告炭疽发病501例,占全部发病数的56.74%。
2014—2023年甘肃省以男性发病居多,占59.34% (524/883),女性占40.66% (359/883),男女发病性别比为1.46:1。发病病例年龄最小为11个月,最大为90岁,发病年龄中位数为40岁;各年龄组均有发病,其中0~9岁22例(2.49%),10~19岁35例(3.96%),20~29岁154例(17.44%),30~39岁222例(25.14%),40~49岁231例(26.16%);50~59岁136例(15.40%),60~69岁54例(6.12%),≥70岁29例(3.28%);有68.74% (607/883)的病例集中在20~49岁青壮年。发病最多的职业为牧民,占82.33%(727/883);其次为农民,占11.44% (101/883)。
2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病病例分布于8个市州的23个县市,占全省市州总数的57.14%(8/14)。其中,甘南州发病数居首位,为814例,占全部发病数的92.19%;其次为定西市,发病数为36例,占全部发病数的4.08%;临夏州、庆阳市、白银市、武威市、平凉市和天水市等6个市州发病数之和为33例,占全部发病数的3.73%。甘南州连续10年均有病例报告,定西市连续5年均有病例报告,其他地区表现为散发病例报告。
2014—2023年甘肃省有26.44%(23/87)的县区有炭疽发病病例报告,其中12个县区报告发病数为1~3例,4个县区报告发病数为4~6例,7个县区报告发病数>10例;甘南州玛曲县报告病例数最多(478例),其次为甘南州碌曲县(148例)和夏河县(133例)。2014—2023年甘肃省全局空间自相关分析差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),2014、2015、2016、2017、2018、2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年全局Moran′s I值分别为0.438、0.592、0.590、0.639、0.577、0.511、0.530、0.091、0.565和0.357,甘肃省县区炭疽发病存在空间聚集区域。FleXScan空间聚集扫描结果显示,共探测到3个差异有统计学意义的空间聚集区域,共涉及2个市州的8个县区,占9.20%(8/87);其中一级聚集区1个,覆盖甘南州玛曲县、碌曲县和夏河县(RLLR=3 123.59,P=0.001);二级聚集区2个,分别覆盖甘南州合作市、卓尼县和迭部县(RLLR=113.87,P=0.001)以及定西市岷县和甘南州临潭县(RLLR=9.94,P=0.011)。3个聚集区域报告炭疽发病数共占95.13%(840/883),一级聚集区主要为牧区,报告发病数占80.63%(712/883);2个二级聚集区报告发病数分别占9.51%(84/883)和4.98%(44/883)。
炭疽是危害人畜健康的急性传染病之一。本研究结果显示,2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽病例数呈波动趋势,初期缓慢上升,至2016年因定西市岷县暴发疫情而骤增至128例,形成显著峰值,此后病例数虽有回落,但近年来又呈缓慢回升态势,尤其是2021—2023年的发病数和发病率均显著上升,高于1979—2021年黑龙江省[10]、2019—2022年宁夏回族自治区[13]和2018—2023年四川省[14]等研究结果。与甘肃省既往研究[7,15–16]相比,2014—2023年甘肃省炭疽发病数整体有所上升,年均发病率为 0.34/10万,远超同期全国炭疽发病率[17],提示甘肃省炭疽的防控工作仍面临着严峻挑战。
本研究结果显示,甘肃省炭疽病例全年均有发生,高发季节为夏秋季(7—10月份),此期间报告炭疽发病数占全部发病数的56.74%,与全国多地季节分布一致[10,14,18]。每年6—9月为多雨期,甘肃省炭疽呈地方性流行,表明其发生与气候条件密切相关[19]。这可能与夏秋季温暖湿润的环境使土壤中的炭疽芽孢杆菌活跃,被雨水冲刷至地表,加之放牧活动的增加,牛羊等牲畜感染风险攀升,进而通过接触传播增加人感染的可能性有关[20]。提示在夏秋季雨季时,需密切监测炭疽疫情,并及时评估疫情风险,适时发布相关风险提示。
甘肃省炭疽疫情人群感染特征明显,主要高发于牧民群体(82.33%),这与国内多数省份以农民为主[21–22]的人群特征不同,但与邻近畜牧大省如四川省[14]和青海省[23]相似。发病人群主要为20~49岁的青壮年人群(68.74%),男性多于女性(59.34% vs. 40.66%),与国内多项研究[22–23]结果一致,这可能是因为男性为家庭主要劳动力,与染疫病死畜接触机会多,从而面临更高的感染风险。甘肃省既往研究数据显示,病死畜处理不当是炭疽疫情频发的主要原因之一,许多牧民参与病死牲畜宰杀和剥食活动,共同分食病牛羊肉的情况在一定程度上加剧了感染的传播,特别是在甘南州的玛曲县、碌曲县和夏河县等牧区,由于畜牧业繁荣,从事牛/羊养殖、贩卖、屠宰和副产品加工的人员增多,从而导致炭疽感染的风险增加[7,15]。一项调查结果显示,玛曲县牧民对炭疽知识认知不全面,防护意识低,存在自行宰杀、加工、食用病死畜行为,且鲜少采取防护措施;同时对传统健康教育方式接受度不高,需采用更贴近其生活习俗的宣传策略进一步加强宣传[24]。
有研究表明,甘肃省炭疽的空间分布不均衡[25]。本研究结果亦显示,甘肃省炭疽疫情呈现明显的不均衡性和聚集性,探测到3个聚集区域,最大聚集区主要集中在西南部的甘南州玛曲县、碌曲县和夏河县,为甘肃省的牧区,报告发病数占80.63%,与既往研究结果一致[15, 26]。因此,需对甘南州玛曲县、碌曲县和夏河县开展全方位监测工作,在炭疽高发季节结合当地牧民的生活习俗,采取牧民易于接受的健康教育方式,进一步强化并落实健康宣教工作,有效提升牧民的炭疽防控知识水平,进而推动其在炭疽防控相关防护行为上的积极转变。此外,定西市的岷县作为新的风险区域,也需要加强炭疽的流行病学监测和防控力度。

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doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146893
  • 接收时间:2025-01-08
  • 首发时间:2026-10-23
  • 出版时间:2026-01-10
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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-08
  • 修回日期:2025-04-25
  • 录用日期:2025-08-28
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    甘肃省疾病预防控制中心(甘肃省预防医学科学院),兰州 730000

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Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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