Article(id=1320442604882346210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320442558581424898, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1148252, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1750176000000, receivedDateStr=2025-06-18, revisedDate=1757606400000, revisedDateStr=2025-09-12, acceptedDate=1761840000000, acceptedDateStr=2025-10-31, onlineDate=1792747649641, onlineDateStr=2026-10-23, pubDate=1770652800000, pubDateStr=2026-02-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792747649641, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792747649641, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792747649641, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1320442558581424898, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2026', volume='42', issue='2', pageStart='129', pageEnd='256', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1770652800000', pubDateStr='2026-02-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792747638602, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792748118043, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1320444569574031427, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320442558581424898, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1320444569578225732, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320442558581424898, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=234, endPage=238, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1320442606585233635, articleId=1320442604882346210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Incidence trends of female breast cancer in cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022, columnId=1320427686514770171, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Survey and Report, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the incidence trends of female breast cancer in the cancer registration areas of Nantong city, Jiangsu province from 2013 to 2022, thus providing a basis for developing prevention and control strategies for female breast cancer in this region.

Methods

Data of female breast cancer cases registered in Nantong city from 2013 to 2022 were collected from the tumor follow-up database. The urban/rural area-specific crude incidence rate, the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC), and age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population (ASIRW) of female breast cancer were calculated. The crude incidence rate of female breast cancer in each age group was calculated. The Joinpoint model was used to estimate the annual average percentage change (AAPC) in these indicators for revealing the incidence trends of female breast cancer in selected areas with cancer registration in the city during this period.

Results

In the cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022, the crude incidence rate, ASIRC, and ASIRW (per 100 000) of female breast cancer were 53.83 (50.08 for urban population and 55.31 for rural population), 30.72 (28.97 for urban population and 31.43 for rural population), and 28.73 (27.20 for urban population and 29.33 rural population), respectively. The crude incidence rate, ASIRC, and ASIRW of female breast cancer in the total population and urban and rural areas showed upward trends (AAPC: 3.79%–5.96%, all P < 0.01), and the incidence rate of female breast cancer in rural areas showed a more significant upward trend. The incidence rates of female breast cancer in the age groups of 30–39 years, 40–49 years, 50–59 years, 60–69 years, and 70–79 years in the cancer registration areas all showed upward trends (AAPC: 3.44%–5.37%, all P < 0.01).

Conclusions

The incidence rate of female breast cancer in the cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022 showed an upward trend. Special attention should be paid to the prevention and control of female breast cancer in rural areas. Women aged 30–79 years are the key population for breast cancer prevention and control in this region.

, authors=Mingrui CHEN1, 2, Yingying HAN2, Xinling MAO2, Yueping MI2, Ling LIN2, Bo CAI2, Quanyong XIANG1, 3, authorsList=Mingrui CHEN, Yingying HAN, Xinling MAO, Yueping MI, Ling LIN, Bo CAI, Quanyong XIANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Bo CAI, Quanyong XIANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
CAI Bo, E-mail:
XIANG Quanyong, E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2026 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1320442606828503268, articleId=1320442604882346210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势分析, columnId=1320427686770622717, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=调查报告与分析, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

分析2013—2022年江苏省南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势,为该地区女性乳腺癌防治提供参考依据。

方法

收集2013年1月1日—2022年12月31日南通市肿瘤登记处上报的肿瘤随访数据库中女性乳腺癌发病数据,按照城乡分层计算女性乳腺癌的粗发病率、中国人口标化发病率(中标发病率)和世界人口标化发病率(世标发病率),并计算各年龄组女性乳腺癌的粗发病率,应用Joinpoint模型计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌的发病趋势。

结果

2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌粗发病率为53.83/10万(城市为50.08/10万、农村为55.31/10万),中标发病率为30.72/10万(城市为28.97/10万、农村为31.43/10万),世标发病率为28.73/10万(城市为27.20/10万、农村为29.33/10万);2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性总体及城乡乳腺癌的粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率均呈上升趋势(AAPC=3.79%~5.96%,均P<0.01),农村女性乳腺癌发病率上升趋势更为显著;2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区30~39、40~49、50~59、60~69、70~79岁年龄组女性乳腺癌发病率均呈上升趋势(AAPC=3.44%~5.37%,均P<0.01)。

结论

2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病率呈上升趋势,尤其应重点关注农村地区女性的乳腺癌防控工作,30~79岁女性人群为该地区需要进行乳腺癌防控的重点人群。

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陈铭睿(1998—),医师,本科,研究方向:慢性非传染性疾病预防与控制

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蔡波,E-mail:
向全永,E-mail:
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Incidence trends of female breast cancer in the cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份粗发病率/(1/10万)中标发病率/(1/10万)世标发病率/(1/10万)
201342.7825.9224.16
201441.3224.4622.86
201545.2126.4624.98
201649.4328.3426.56
201751.2629.0127.21
201855.1831.6229.36
201961.4535.1132.77
202061.8434.8232.54
202160.9333.2231.05
202269.1839.1336.31
AAPC值5.824.944.86
t值12.968.819.05
P值<0.001<0.001<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1320442611886833954, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442604882346210, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份粗发病率/(1/10万)中标发病率/(1/10万)世标发病率/(1/10万)
201342.7825.9224.16
201441.3224.4622.86
201545.2126.4624.98
201649.4328.3426.56
201751.2629.0127.21
201855.1831.6229.36
201961.4535.1132.77
202061.8434.8232.54
202160.9333.2231.05
202269.1839.1336.31
AAPC值5.824.944.86
t值12.968.819.05
P值<0.001<0.001<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1320442611953942819, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442604882346210, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Incidence trends of female breast cancer in urban and rural populations of cancer registration areas in Nantong city from 2013 to 2022

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份城市农村
粗发病率/(1/10万)中标发病率/(1/10万)世标发病率/(1/10万)粗发病率/(1/10万)中标发病率/(1/10万)世标发病率/(1/10万)
201340.1225.4323.8943.7826.1424.29
201436.3122.2520.9743.2225.3723.62
201541.9626.0724.8646.4626.7625.14
201650.6430.7328.3548.9627.4725.94
201749.1627.1725.7852.0929.7827.80
201852.3429.7427.9856.3132.4629.96
201953.8630.6828.6064.4836.8834.41
202053.0428.1126.6965.3837.6134.92
202160.9033.3331.3360.9533.2330.98
202261.2435.5632.8272.4140.5537.69
AAPC值5.513.903.795.965.305.24
t值7.464.384.7110.447.237.43
P值<0.0010.0020.002<0.001<0.001<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1320442612021051684, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442604882346210, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区城乡女性乳腺癌发病趋势

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份城市农村
粗发病率/(1/10万)中标发病率/(1/10万)世标发病率/(1/10万)粗发病率/(1/10万)中标发病率/(1/10万)世标发病率/(1/10万)
201340.1225.4323.8943.7826.1424.29
201436.3122.2520.9743.2225.3723.62
201541.9626.0724.8646.4626.7625.14
201650.6430.7328.3548.9627.4725.94
201749.1627.1725.7852.0929.7827.80
201852.3429.7427.9856.3132.4629.96
201953.8630.6828.6064.4836.8834.41
202053.0428.1126.6965.3837.6134.92
202160.9033.3331.3360.9533.2330.98
202261.2435.5632.8272.4140.5537.69
AAPC值5.513.903.795.965.305.24
t值7.464.384.7110.447.237.43
P值<0.0010.0020.002<0.001<0.001<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1320442612104937765, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442604882346210, language=EN, label=Tab.3, caption=

Incidence trends of female breast cancer in different age groups in cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022 (1/105)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份粗发病率/(1/10万)
<30岁30~39岁40~49岁50~59岁60~69岁70~79岁≥80岁
20130.8820.7462.6273.4175.7256.8537.80
20140.8818.9856.2570.7471.4163.1544.91
20152.3318.4657.5479.0684.0854.3963.16
20162.0220.0363.3588.3081.1666.0056.88
20171.6721.0670.0481.5886.6573.9847.79
20182.0525.5479.3787.3986.1871.2355.40
20192.7026.3585.82102.0793.6675.4858.61
20201.3025.4484.27101.6293.8585.7849.68
20212.0924.1273.02103.6590.5780.2359.18
20221.5430.9396.13106.80105.0690.6260.23
AAPC值5.754.905.374.853.445.303.18
t值1.364.895.048.666.547.042.06
P值0.21<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.0010.073
), ArticleFig(id=1320442612197212454, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442604882346210, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区不同年龄组女性乳腺癌发病趋势

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份粗发病率/(1/10万)
<30岁30~39岁40~49岁50~59岁60~69岁70~79岁≥80岁
20130.8820.7462.6273.4175.7256.8537.80
20140.8818.9856.2570.7471.4163.1544.91
20152.3318.4657.5479.0684.0854.3963.16
20162.0220.0363.3588.3081.1666.0056.88
20171.6721.0670.0481.5886.6573.9847.79
20182.0525.5479.3787.3986.1871.2355.40
20192.7026.3585.82102.0793.6675.4858.61
20201.3025.4484.27101.6293.8585.7849.68
20212.0924.1273.02103.6590.5780.2359.18
20221.5430.9396.13106.80105.0690.6260.23
AAPC值5.754.905.374.853.445.303.18
t值1.364.895.048.666.547.042.06
P值0.21<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.0010.073
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2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势分析
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陈铭睿 1, 2 , 韩颖颖 2 , 茅鑫铃 2 , 糜跃萍 2 , 林玲 2 , 蔡波 2, *, * , 向全永 1, 3, *, *
中国公共卫生 | 调查报告与分析 2026,42(2): 234-238
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中国公共卫生 |调查报告与分析 2026 , 42 (2) : 234 -238
2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势分析
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陈铭睿1, 2, 韩颖颖2, 茅鑫铃2, 糜跃萍2, 林玲2, 蔡波2, *, * , 向全永1, 3, *, *
作者信息
  • 1南京医科大学公共卫生学院,南京 211166
  • 2南通市疾病预防控制中心,南通 226007
  • 3江苏省疾病预防控制中心,南京 210009
通讯作者:
蔡波,E-mail:
向全永,E-mail:
作者简介:

陈铭睿(1998—),医师,本科,研究方向:慢性非传染性疾病预防与控制

Incidence trends of female breast cancer in cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022
Mingrui CHEN1, 2, Yingying HAN2, Xinling MAO2, Yueping MI2, Ling LIN2, Bo CAI2 , Quanyong XIANG1, 3
Affiliations
  • 1School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
  • 2Nantong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nantong 226007, China
  • 3Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China
  • Corresponding Author:
    CAI Bo, E-mail:
    XIANG Quanyong, E-mail:
出版时间: 2026-02-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1148252
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目的

分析2013—2022年江苏省南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势,为该地区女性乳腺癌防治提供参考依据。

方法

收集2013年1月1日—2022年12月31日南通市肿瘤登记处上报的肿瘤随访数据库中女性乳腺癌发病数据,按照城乡分层计算女性乳腺癌的粗发病率、中国人口标化发病率(中标发病率)和世界人口标化发病率(世标发病率),并计算各年龄组女性乳腺癌的粗发病率,应用Joinpoint模型计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌的发病趋势。

结果

2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌粗发病率为53.83/10万(城市为50.08/10万、农村为55.31/10万),中标发病率为30.72/10万(城市为28.97/10万、农村为31.43/10万),世标发病率为28.73/10万(城市为27.20/10万、农村为29.33/10万);2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性总体及城乡乳腺癌的粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率均呈上升趋势(AAPC=3.79%~5.96%,均P<0.01),农村女性乳腺癌发病率上升趋势更为显著;2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区30~39、40~49、50~59、60~69、70~79岁年龄组女性乳腺癌发病率均呈上升趋势(AAPC=3.44%~5.37%,均P<0.01)。

结论

2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病率呈上升趋势,尤其应重点关注农村地区女性的乳腺癌防控工作,30~79岁女性人群为该地区需要进行乳腺癌防控的重点人群。

乳腺癌  /  女性  /  发病趋势  /  肿瘤登记地区  /  Joinpoint模型  /  南通市
Objective

To analyze the incidence trends of female breast cancer in the cancer registration areas of Nantong city, Jiangsu province from 2013 to 2022, thus providing a basis for developing prevention and control strategies for female breast cancer in this region.

Methods

Data of female breast cancer cases registered in Nantong city from 2013 to 2022 were collected from the tumor follow-up database. The urban/rural area-specific crude incidence rate, the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC), and age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population (ASIRW) of female breast cancer were calculated. The crude incidence rate of female breast cancer in each age group was calculated. The Joinpoint model was used to estimate the annual average percentage change (AAPC) in these indicators for revealing the incidence trends of female breast cancer in selected areas with cancer registration in the city during this period.

Results

In the cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022, the crude incidence rate, ASIRC, and ASIRW (per 100 000) of female breast cancer were 53.83 (50.08 for urban population and 55.31 for rural population), 30.72 (28.97 for urban population and 31.43 for rural population), and 28.73 (27.20 for urban population and 29.33 rural population), respectively. The crude incidence rate, ASIRC, and ASIRW of female breast cancer in the total population and urban and rural areas showed upward trends (AAPC: 3.79%–5.96%, all P < 0.01), and the incidence rate of female breast cancer in rural areas showed a more significant upward trend. The incidence rates of female breast cancer in the age groups of 30–39 years, 40–49 years, 50–59 years, 60–69 years, and 70–79 years in the cancer registration areas all showed upward trends (AAPC: 3.44%–5.37%, all P < 0.01).

Conclusions

The incidence rate of female breast cancer in the cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022 showed an upward trend. Special attention should be paid to the prevention and control of female breast cancer in rural areas. Women aged 30–79 years are the key population for breast cancer prevention and control in this region.

breast cancer  /  female  /  incidence trend  /  cancer registration area  /  Joinpoint model  /  Nantong city
陈铭睿, 韩颖颖, 茅鑫铃, 糜跃萍, 林玲, 蔡波, 向全永. 2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势分析. 中国公共卫生, 2026 , 42 (2) : 234 -238 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1148252
Mingrui CHEN, Yingying HAN, Xinling MAO, Yueping MI, Ling LIN, Bo CAI, Quanyong XIANG. Incidence trends of female breast cancer in cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2026 , 42 (2) : 234 -238 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1148252
乳腺癌是全球女性最常见的癌症之一,是全球面临的重大公共卫生问题。据全球癌症统计报告(Global Cancer Observatory, GLOBOCAN)数据显示,2022年全球范围内女性乳腺癌新发病例数约为229.6万例,占女性所有癌症总数的23.8%,居女性恶性肿瘤发病谱的第1位[1]。根据国家癌症中心数据报告,2022年中国女性乳腺癌粗发病率为51.17/10万,居恶性肿瘤发病谱第2位[2],防控形势不容乐观。为分析2013—2022年江苏省南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势,为该地区女性乳腺癌防治提供参考依据,本研究收集2013年1月1日—2022年12月31日南通市肿瘤登记处上报的肿瘤随访数据库中女性乳腺癌发病数据,按照城乡分层计算女性乳腺癌的粗发病率、中国人口标化发病率(简称“中标发病率”)和世界人口标化发病率(简称“世标发病率”),并计算各年龄组女性乳腺癌的粗发病率,应用Joinpoint模型计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change, AAPC)分析2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌的发病趋势。结果报告如下。
女性乳腺癌发病数据来源于2013年1月1日—2022年12月31日南通市肿瘤登记处上报的肿瘤随访数据库,数据采用《疾病和有关健康问题的国际统计分类第十次修订本(International Classification of Diseases Version 10, ICD-10)》[3]进行分类和编码,乳腺癌的编码为C50。2013—2022年南通市户籍人口数来源于南通市公安局。本研究经南通市疾病预防控制中心伦理委员会审查批准(批号:2024012)。
参照《中国肿瘤登记工作指导手册(2016)》[4]以及国际癌症研究署(International Agency for Research on Cancer, IARC)和国际癌症登记协会(International Association of Cancer Registries, IACR)的纳入原则和评价标准[5–6]对数据进行质量控制。2013—2022年南通市女性乳腺癌患者病理学诊断比例为79.71%~88.97%,死亡发病比为0.20~0.26,仅死亡医学证明书比例为0.04%~0.62%,数据完整有效、可靠性较高。
应用SPSS 26.0和Excel 2021软件对女性乳腺癌发病数据进行整理和统计分析,按照城乡分层计算女性乳腺癌的粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率,并计算各年龄组女性乳腺癌的粗发病率;其中中国人口标化采用2000年中国标准人口构成[4]、世界人口标化采用Segi世界标准人口构成[4]进行计算。应用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件计算AAPC,以分析2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌的发病趋势。检验水准为双侧检验α=0.05。
南通市肿瘤登记地区2013—2022年女性乳腺癌粗发病率为53.83/10万,中标发病率为30.72/10万,世标发病率为28.73/10万;南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌粗发病率从2013年的42.78/10万上升至2022年的69.18/10万,中标发病率从2013年的25.92/10万上升至2022年的39.13/10万,世标发病率从2013年的24.16/10万上升至2022年的36.31/10万;2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率均呈上升趋势(均P<0.001)。
2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区城市和农村女性乳腺癌粗发病率分别为50.08/10万和55.31/10万,中标发病率分别为28.97/10万和31.43/10万,世标发病率分别为27.20/10万和29.33/10万。南通市肿瘤登记地区城市和农村女性乳腺癌粗发病率分别从2013年的40.12/10万和43.78/10万上升至2022年的61.24/10万和72.41/10万;中标发病率分别从2013年的25.43/10万和26.14/10万上升至2022年的35.56/10万和40.55/10万;世标发病率分别从2013年的23.89/10万和24.29/10万上升至2022年的32.82/10万和37.69/10万。2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区城市和农村女性乳腺癌粗发病率、中标发病率、世标发病率均呈上升趋势(均P<0.01);且农村女性乳腺癌粗发病率、中标发病率、世标发病率上升趋势更加显著。
2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区<30、30~39、40~49、50~59、60~69、70~79和≥80岁年龄组女性乳腺癌粗发病率分别为1.73/10万、23.20/10万、70.74/10万、90.65/10万、87.53/10万、73.05/10万和53.86/10万;南通市肿瘤登记地区30~39、40~49、50~59、60~69和70~79岁女性乳腺癌粗发病率分别从2013年的20.74/10万、62.62/10万、73.41/10万、75.72/10万和56.85/10万上升至2022年的30.93/10万、96.13/10万、106.80/10万、105.06/10万和90.62/10万;2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区30~39、40~49、50~59、60~69和70~79岁年龄组女性乳腺癌粗发病率均呈上升趋势(均P<0.01)。
本研究分析结果显示,2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌世标发病率为28.73/10万,低于2022年全球水平(46.8/10万)[1]和2022年中国全国水平(33.04/10万)[2]。2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌中标发病率为30.72/10万,与 2009—2019年江苏省(30.27/10万)[7]相近,高于2018年甘肃省(24.39/10万)[8]和2010—2018年安徽省(23.50/10万)[9],但低于2017年广东省(39.82/10万)[10]和2017年河南省(32.20/10万)[11]。这可能与不同地区医疗救治水平、居民受教育程度、健康意识和地域间人口老龄化程度不同等存在一定差异有关。
本研究分析结果还显示,2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌中标发病率以每年4.94%的幅度增长(AAPC=4.94%,t=8.81,P<0.001),与日本等其他亚洲乳腺癌高发国家[12]、中国[13]以及安徽省[9]、河南省[11]和上海市[14]等地区的乳腺癌流行趋势基本一致。而乳腺癌发病率的上升可能与生育因素的变化、肥胖率的上升、体育锻炼的减少以及乳腺癌筛查的普及等因素有关[15–16]。本研究中,2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区农村女性乳腺癌的粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率的增长速度(AAPC=5.96%、5.30%和5.24%,均P<0.001)均高于城市女性乳腺癌的粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率的增长速度(AAPC=5.51%、3.90%和3.79%,均P<0.01),与中国[15]以及安徽省[9]和河北省[17]等地区的城乡分布特点不同。一方面,可能与南通市农村地区人口老龄化严重,老年人群机体抵抗力低,患病风险增加有关。据江苏省恶性肿瘤报告(2022)显示,南通市如东县女性乳腺癌中标发病率居于江苏省首位(46.56/10万)[18],同时第七次人口普查数据显示,如东县≥60岁人口占比达38.91%,≥65岁人口占比达29.98%[19]。另一方面,可能与农村妇女对乳腺癌防治知识匮乏, 对自己罹患乳腺癌的风险认识不足, 且乳腺自检率较低,筛查意识薄弱有关[20]。据统计,有>50%的农村乳腺癌患者存在就医延迟的现象[21]。有研究表明,在乳腺癌筛查和早期诊断等各个方面,女性乳腺癌防控能力的提高对减轻疾病负担的影响至关重要[22]。因此,今后在现行基础上需进一步改善南通市女性乳腺癌的整体防治策略,提高人群对乳腺癌健康意识和筛查的依从性。
年龄别发病率分析结果显示,2013—2022年南通市肿瘤登记地区30~39、40~49、50~59、60~69和70~79岁年龄组女性乳腺癌粗发病率均呈上升趋势(均P<0.01),其中40~49岁年龄组上升趋势最为明显。因此,应针对不同年龄段女性实施分层预防策略,重点关注中老年高危人群。
综上所述,南通市女性乳腺癌发病率仍呈高位态势,严重威胁女性生命健康,农村中老年女性成为未来乳腺癌防控的重点人群。因此,应提高南通市女性对乳腺癌的认知程度、筛查意识以及乳腺癌筛查和诊疗手段,加强乳腺癌筛查服务的可及性,从而减少疾病的发生。由于本研究受限于监测数据而未能探讨乳腺癌的危险因素归因疾病负担的情况,因此,本研究存在一定的局限性,在今后的研究中应进一步探讨归因危险因素在不同群体中的差异以识别高风险人群,为女性乳腺癌防治提供参考依据。

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2026年第42卷第2期
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doi: 10.11847/zgggws1148252
  • 接收时间:2025-06-18
  • 首发时间:2026-10-23
  • 出版时间:2026-02-10
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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-18
  • 修回日期:2025-09-12
  • 录用日期:2025-10-31
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    1南京医科大学公共卫生学院,南京 211166
    2南通市疾病预防控制中心,南通 226007
    3江苏省疾病预防控制中心,南京 210009

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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属
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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