Article(id=1320428890867220760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320428830876086873, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1149262, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1762358400000, receivedDateStr=2025-11-06, revisedDate=1768752000000, revisedDateStr=2026-01-19, acceptedDate=1772812800000, acceptedDateStr=2026-03-07, onlineDate=1792744379964, onlineDateStr=2026-10-23, pubDate=1788969600000, pubDateStr=2026-09-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792744379964, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792744379964, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792744379964, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1320428830876086873, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2026', volume='42', issue='9', pageStart='1025', pageEnd='1152', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1788969600000', pubDateStr='2026-09-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792744365662, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792746244140, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1320436709859381360, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320428830876086873, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1320436709859381361, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320428830876086873, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1135, endPage=1139, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1320428891097907481, articleId=1320428890867220760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Relationship between medical visit intervals and the risk of clustered tuberculosis outbreaks in schools: a retrospective survey based on first-episode cases, columnId=1320427686514770171, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Survey and Report, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective To analyze the relationship between the visit intervals of indicator cases and the risk of clustered tuberculosis outbreaks in schools.
Methods A total of 623 indicator cases of pulmonary tuberculosis involved in the pulmonary tuberculosis epidemic in Guangzhou city, Guangdong province from September 2023 to September 2024 were included for analysis. Restricted cubic splines (RCS), unconditional logistic regression analysis, and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used to evaluate the relationship between the visit intervals of indicator cases and the risk of clustered tuberculosis outbreaks in schools.
Results Among 623 tuberculosis indicator cases included in this study, 66 cases were clustered with high-risk outbreaks, and 557 cases were clustered with low-risk outbreaks or had no correlation. The differences in visit interval [41.00(12.00, 104.00)d vs 7.00(0.00, 17.00)d] and positive rate of pathogenic examination (69.70% VS 46.14%) were statistically significant between two groups (Z/χ2 = –37.401, 13.108, P < 0.05). When the visit intervals of positive indicator cases in etiological examination exceeded 14 days or that of negative cases exceeded 8 days, the risk of pulmonary tuberculosis outbreaks in schools showed a linear increasing trend. For every 1 day increase in the visit interval, the possibility of high risk outbreaks in schools increased by 15.50% (OR = 1.155, 95%CI: 1.050–1.680, P < 0.05). When the visit intervals were analyzed by ternary, it was found that with the extension of visit interval, the risk of clustered pulmonary tuberculosis outbreaks in schools increased (Z = 12.520, P < 0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the threshold for predicting the high concentration risk of pulmonary tuberculosis in schools based on the visit interval was 23 days, AUC was 0.918, 95%CI = 0.829 to 0.964.
Conclusions The extended visit intervals of indicator cases may be a key early warning indicator for high-risk clustered outbreaks of pulmonary tuberculosis in schools.
, authors=Xiaoshan LIN, Weiyun HE, Guangfeng YUAN, Guobiao LIU, Yajuan FENG, Jieying YANG, Jingwen LAI, authorsList=Xiaoshan LIN, Weiyun HE, Guangfeng YUAN, Guobiao LIU, Yajuan FENG, Jieying YANG, Jingwen LAI, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Weiyun HE, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2026 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1320428891961934112, articleId=1320428890867220760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=就诊间隔与学校肺结核疫情聚集风险关系:基于首发病例的回顾性调查, columnId=1320427686770622717, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=调查报告与分析, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的 分析指示病例就诊间隔与学校肺结核疫情聚集风险的关系。
方法 纳入2023年9月—2024年9月广东省广州市肺结核疫情涉及的623例肺结核指示病例为研究对象。采用限制性立方样条(RCS)、非条件logistic回归分析法、受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)评估指示病例就诊间隔与学校肺结核疫情聚集风险的关系。
结果 本次纳入的623例肺结核指示病例中66例为高风险疫情聚集、557例为低风险疫情聚集或无关联性,2组病例的就诊间[41.00(12.00,104.00)d vs 7.00(0.00,17.00)d]、病原学检查阳性率(69.70% vs 46.14%)差异均有统计学意义(Z/χ2= –37.401、13.108,P<0.05)。当病原学检查阳性指示病例就诊间隔超过14 d或阴性病例超过8 d,学校肺结核疫情风险呈线性增加趋势;就诊间隔每增加1 d,学校肺结核疫情高聚集风险的可能性增加15.50%(OR=1.155,95%CI=1.050~1.680,P<0.05)。将就诊间隔按三分位分析显示,就诊间隔延长,学校肺结核疫情聚集风险上升(Z=12.520,P<0.05)。ROC曲线结果显示,就诊间隔预测学校肺结核疫情高聚集风险的阈值为23 d,AUC为0.918,95%CI=0.829~0.964。
结论 指示病例就诊间隔延长可能是学校肺结核疫情发展为高聚集风险的关键预警指标。
, authors=林晓珊, 何蔚云
*, *, 袁光峰, 刘国标, 冯亚娟, 杨洁莹, 赖静文, authorsList=林晓珊, 何蔚云, 袁光峰, 刘国标, 冯亚娟, 杨洁莹, 赖静文, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=何蔚云, authorNote=
林晓珊(1987—),本科,副主任医师,研究方向:结核病防控
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RCS analysis of the visit intervals and the risk of clustered pulmonary tuberculosis outbreaks in schools, figureFileSmall=2IQwItpMyDLWfJjh8tyCiw==, figureFileBig=n1aqsLRkPy0AP+7oT7fL/A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320428896655360342, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320428890867220760, language=CN, label=图1, caption=
就诊间隔与学校肺结核疫情聚集风险的RCS分析, figureFileSmall=2IQwItpMyDLWfJjh8tyCiw==, figureFileBig=n1aqsLRkPy0AP+7oT7fL/A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320428896844104023, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320428890867220760, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=
Linear relationship between the visit intervals and the risk of clustered pulmonary tuberculosis outbreaks in schools, figureFileSmall=KtuRjv1VdIwqp8iHs71CpQ==, figureFileBig=7ibxTfHdCJqigkMfuJzO9g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320428898479882584, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320428890867220760, language=CN, label=图2, caption=
就诊间隔与学校肺结核疫情聚集风险的线性关系, figureFileSmall=KtuRjv1VdIwqp8iHs71CpQ==, figureFileBig=7ibxTfHdCJqigkMfuJzO9g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320428900451205465, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320428890867220760, language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=
Comparison of categorical variables of indicator cases with different characteristics in high- and low-risk clustered outbreaks
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| 特征 | 分类 | 高风险疫情聚集(n=66) | | 低风险疫情聚集或无关联性(n=557) | χ2值 | P值
|
|---|
| 例数 | 构成比/% | | 例数 | 构成比/% |
|---|
| 性别 | 男生 | 40 | 60.61 | | 300 | 53.86 | 1.083 | 0.298 |
| 女生 | 26 | 39.39 | | 257 | 46.14 | | |
| 学校类别 | 小学 | 0 | 0.00 | | 50 | 8.98 | 4.528 | 0.642 |
| 初中 | 18 | 27.27 | | 100 | 17.95 | | |
| 高中/职业院校 | 39 | 59.09 | | 322 | 57.81 | | |
| 大学 | 9 | 13.64 | | 85 | 15.26 | | |
| 学校角色 | 学生 | 60 | 90.91 | | 522 | 93.72 | 0.756 | 0.384 |
| 教职工 | 6 | 9.09 | | 35 | 6.28 | | |
| 肺结核发现方式 | 常规体检 | 4 | 6.06 | | 83 | 14.90 | 0.658 | 0.592 |
| 因症就诊 | 54 | 81.82 | | 445 | 79.89 | | |
| 密切接触者筛查 | 8 | 12.12 | | 29 | 5.21 | | |
| 病原学检查 | 阴性 | 20 | 30.30 | | 300 | 53.86 | 13.108 | <0.001 |
| 阳性 | 46 | 69.70 | | 257 | 46.14 | | |
), ArticleFig(id=1320428900522508634, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320428890867220760, language=CN, label=表1, caption=
不同特征指示病例在高、低风险疫情聚集中分类变量的比较
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 特征 | 分类 | 高风险疫情聚集(n=66) | | 低风险疫情聚集或无关联性(n=557) | χ2值 | P值
|
|---|
| 例数 | 构成比/% | | 例数 | 构成比/% |
|---|
| 性别 | 男生 | 40 | 60.61 | | 300 | 53.86 | 1.083 | 0.298 |
| 女生 | 26 | 39.39 | | 257 | 46.14 | | |
| 学校类别 | 小学 | 0 | 0.00 | | 50 | 8.98 | 4.528 | 0.642 |
| 初中 | 18 | 27.27 | | 100 | 17.95 | | |
| 高中/职业院校 | 39 | 59.09 | | 322 | 57.81 | | |
| 大学 | 9 | 13.64 | | 85 | 15.26 | | |
| 学校角色 | 学生 | 60 | 90.91 | | 522 | 93.72 | 0.756 | 0.384 |
| 教职工 | 6 | 9.09 | | 35 | 6.28 | | |
| 肺结核发现方式 | 常规体检 | 4 | 6.06 | | 83 | 14.90 | 0.658 | 0.592 |
| 因症就诊 | 54 | 81.82 | | 445 | 79.89 | | |
| 密切接触者筛查 | 8 | 12.12 | | 29 | 5.21 | | |
| 病原学检查 | 阴性 | 20 | 30.30 | | 300 | 53.86 | 13.108 | <0.001 |
| 阳性 | 46 | 69.70 | | 257 | 46.14 | | |
), ArticleFig(id=1320428900614783323, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320428890867220760, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=
Comparison of continuous variables of indicator cases with different characteristics in high- and low-risk clustered outbreaks
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 特征 | 高风险疫情聚集(n=66) | 低风险疫情聚集或无关联性(n=557) | t值 | P值 |
|---|
| 年龄/岁 | 12.00±3.00 | 11.50±3.00 | 1.280 | 0.201 |
| 班级密度/(人/平方米) | 1.45±0.20 | 1.50±0.25 | 1.566 | 0.118 |
| 宿舍密度/(人/平方米) | 4.00±0.80 | 4.20±0.85 | 1.818 | 0.069 |
| 就诊间隔时间/d | 41.00(12.00,104.00) | 7.00(0.00,17.00) | –37.401 | <0.001 |
| 诊断间隔时间/d | 13.00(4.00,33.00) | 12.00(3.00,30.00) | –0.620 | 0.120 |
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不同特征指示病例在高、低风险疫情聚集中连续变量的比较
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 特征 | 高风险疫情聚集(n=66) | 低风险疫情聚集或无关联性(n=557) | t值 | P值 |
|---|
| 年龄/岁 | 12.00±3.00 | 11.50±3.00 | 1.280 | 0.201 |
| 班级密度/(人/平方米) | 1.45±0.20 | 1.50±0.25 | 1.566 | 0.118 |
| 宿舍密度/(人/平方米) | 4.00±0.80 | 4.20±0.85 | 1.818 | 0.069 |
| 就诊间隔时间/d | 41.00(12.00,104.00) | 7.00(0.00,17.00) | –37.401 | <0.001 |
| 诊断间隔时间/d | 13.00(4.00,33.00) | 12.00(3.00,30.00) | –0.620 | 0.120 |
), ArticleFig(id=1320428900786749789, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320428890867220760, language=EN, label=Tab.3, caption=
Accuracy of visit intervals in predicting the high-risk clustered outbreaks of pulmonary tuberculosis in schools
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| 指标 | 阈值/d | 敏感度/% | 特异度/% | 阳性预测值/% | 阴性预测值/% | AUC | 95%CI |
|---|
| 就诊间隔 | 23.00 | 85.20 | 80.00 | 96.50 | 44.50 | 0.918 | 0.829~0.964 |
| 病原学阴性就诊间隔 | 15.00 | 89.50 | 71.50 | 98.00 | 41.20 | 0.912 | 0.837~0.948 |
| 病原学阳性就诊间隔 | 30.00 | 81.00 | 84.50 | 93.50 | 60.20 | 0.932 | 0.823~0.969 |
), ArticleFig(id=1320428900874830174, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320428890867220760, language=CN, label=表3, caption=
就诊间隔预测学校肺结核高风险疫情聚集风险的准确性
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| 指标 | 阈值/d | 敏感度/% | 特异度/% | 阳性预测值/% | 阴性预测值/% | AUC | 95%CI |
|---|
| 就诊间隔 | 23.00 | 85.20 | 80.00 | 96.50 | 44.50 | 0.918 | 0.829~0.964 |
| 病原学阴性就诊间隔 | 15.00 | 89.50 | 71.50 | 98.00 | 41.20 | 0.912 | 0.837~0.948 |
| 病原学阳性就诊间隔 | 30.00 | 81.00 | 84.50 | 93.50 | 60.20 | 0.932 | 0.823~0.969 |
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