Article(id=1320438037100745221, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320438006813672182, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1148063, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1748275200000, receivedDateStr=2025-05-27, revisedDate=1760371200000, revisedDateStr=2025-10-14, acceptedDate=1764691200000, acceptedDateStr=2025-12-03, onlineDate=1792746560596, onlineDateStr=2026-10-23, pubDate=1773072000000, pubDateStr=2026-03-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792746560596, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792746560596, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792746560596, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1320438006813672182, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2026', volume='42', issue='3', pageStart='257', pageEnd='384', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1773072000000', pubDateStr='2026-03-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792746553376, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792748100383, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1320444495519404406, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320438006813672182, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1320444495519404407, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320438006813672182, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=308, endPage=313, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1320438037495009799, articleId=1320438037100745221, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of hepatitis C incidence in the mainland of China, 2004–2020: based on public health scientific data from China, columnId=1320427686514770171, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Survey and Report, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the epidemiological trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of hepatitis C incidence in the mainland of China from 2004 to 2020, thereby providing a scientific basis for precise prevention and control.

Methods

Data were obtained from the China Public Health Science Data Center, covering reported hepatitis C cases and incidence rates across 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2020. The Joinpoint regression model was adopted to analyze the temporal trends by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC), and the Bayesian spatiotemporal model proposed by Bernardinelli was employed to assess the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of hepatitis C.

Results

From 2004 to 2020, the average annual incidence of hepatitis C in the mainland of China was 11.67 per 100 000, with yearly rates of 3.03, 4.07, 5.41, 7.03, 8.21, 9.93, 11.47, 12.97, 14.96, 15.00, 14.97, 15.26, 15.09, 15.51, 15.79, 16.02, and 13.82 per 100 000, respectively, showing an overall increasing trend (AAPC = 10.15%, 95%CI: 9.73%–10.64%). Significant upward trends were observed during 2004–2007 (APC = 33.17%, 95%CI: 29.75%–39.81%), 2008–2012 (APC = 15.79%, 95%CI: 14.03%–17.99%), and 2013–2018 (APC = 0.89%, 95%CI: 0.06%–5.08%), whereas a decline occurred during 2019–2020 (APC = –4.82%, 95%CI: –7.47% to –0.83%). Regional disparities were evident, with Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (551.51/100 000), Qinghai province (453.22/100 000), and Gansu province (430.73/100 000) exhibiting the highest average annual incidences, Xizang Autonomous Region showing the largest increase (AAPC = 26.40%, 95%CI: 21.32%–32.29%), and Beijing demonstrating a declining trend (APC = –3.93%, 95%CI: –5.91% to –0.74%). The Bayesian spatiotemporal model proposed by Bernardinelli indicated that the relative risk (RR) of hepatitis C across the mainland of China from 2004 to 2020 ranged from 0.012 to 4.248. Higher and more fluctuating RR values were observed in northwestern regions (including Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Qinghai province, and Gansu province), whereas southeastern coastal provinces (e.g., Zhejiang, Jiangsu), parts of northern China (e.g., Tianjin and Beijing), and southwestern regions (e.g., Xizang Autonomous Region) showed lower and more stable RR values. The RR values of most provincial-level administrative regions, such as Gansu province, Henan province, and Jilin province, displayed a rise–fall pattern, steadily increasing after 2004, peaking between 2013 and 2016, and then decreasing, while Yunnan province, Hunan province, and Sichuan province exhibited a continuous upward trend throughout the study period.

Conclusion

Between 2004 and 2020, the overall incidence of hepatitis C in the mainland of China exhibited an upward trend, with significant temporal and spatial variations. High-risk areas were concentrated in northwestern China, while certain provincial-level administrative regions in southwestern China showed marked increases in the incidence.

, authors=Ying YANG, Aijing SONG, Yuanxiu LIN, Pengxian LIU, Xiaorui LI, Yaping LIU, Xiaoxiao SONG, Xia XIAO, authorsList=Ying YANG, Aijing SONG, Yuanxiu LIN, Pengxian LIU, Xiaorui LI, Yaping LIU, Xiaoxiao SONG, Xia XIAO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Xia XIAO, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
XIAO Xia, E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2026 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1320438047443898966, articleId=1320438037100745221, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙型病毒性肝炎发病贝叶斯时空分析:基于中国公共卫生科学数据, columnId=1320427686770622717, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=调查报告与分析, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

分析2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)发病的流行趋势与时空分布特征,为丙肝的精准防控提供科学依据。

方法

收集中国公共卫生科学数据中心2004年1月1日—2020年12月31日31个省(自治区、直辖市)报告的丙肝发病数和发病率,应用Joinpoint回归模型通过计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)和年度变化百分比(APC)分析丙肝发病的时间趋势,并应用Bernardinelli贝叶斯时空模型对丙肝时空演化特征进行评估。

结果

2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝年均发病率为11.67/10万,2004—2020年丙肝发病率依次为3.03/10万、4.07/10万、5.41/10万、7.03/10万、8.21/10万、9.93/10万、11.47/10万、12.97/10万、14.96/10万、15.00/10万、14.97/10万、15.26/10万、15.09/10万、15.51/10万、15.79/10万、16.02/10万和13.82/10万,2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝发病率总体呈上升趋势 (AAPC=10.15%,95%CI=9.73%~10.64%);其中2004—2007年(APC=33.17%,95%CI=29.75%~39.81%)、2008—2012年(APC=15.79%,95%CI=14.03%~17.99%)和2013—2018年(APC=0.89%,95%CI=0.06%~5.08%)丙肝发病率均呈显著上升趋势,2019—2020年丙肝发病率呈显著下降趋势(APC= –4.82%,95%CI= –7.47%~–0.83%);丙肝发病率具有区域差异,其中新疆维吾尔自治区(551.51/10万)、青海省(453.22/10万)和甘肃省(430.73/10万)的丙肝年均发病率居于前3位,西藏自治区的丙肝发病率增长幅度最大(AAPC=26.40%,95%CI=21.32%~32.29%),而北京市的丙肝发病率则呈下降趋势(APC= –3.93%,95%CI= –5.91%~–0.74%);Bernardinelli贝叶斯时空模型结果显示,2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝的整体发病风险(RR)值介于0.012~4.248之间,其中西北地区(如新疆维吾尔自治区、青海省、甘肃省)估计的RR值普遍较高且波动幅度较大,而东南沿海(如浙江省、江苏省)和部分华北地区(如天津市、北京市)、西南地区(如西藏自治区)估计的RR值相对较低且波动幅度较小,大多数地区(如甘肃省、河南省、吉林省)的RR值呈先升后降变化,其RR值在2004年以后稳步上升,且在2013—2016年达到峰值后有所降低,而云南省、湖南省和四川省等省份则整体呈逐年上升趋势。

结论

2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝整体发病率呈上升趋势,且发病率在时间和空间上均有显著变化,高发地区主要集中于西北地区,部分西南部省份增长明显。

, authors=杨颖, 宋艾婧, 林元修, 刘鹏鲜, 李晓睿, 刘雅萍, 宋肖肖, 肖霞*, *, authorsList=杨颖, 宋艾婧, 林元修, 刘鹏鲜, 李晓睿, 刘雅萍, 宋肖肖, 肖霞, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=肖霞, authorNote=

杨颖(2000—),硕士在读,研究方向:公共卫生

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肖霞,E-mail:
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Reported incidence and temporal trends of hepatitis C in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in the mainland of China, 2004–2020

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地区省(自治区、直辖市)报告发病例数年均发病率/(1/10万)AAPC值/%95%CI
P值
华东山东省52 53151.6814.7613.67~15.96<0.001
江苏省43 18450.947.466.74~8.20<0.001
安徽省77 134126.3519.8019.12~20.51<0.001
浙江省38 73059.886.365.04~8.12<0.001
福建省32 40777.8811.1810.62~11.77<0.001
江西省34 50976.378.017.02~8.92<0.001
上海市19 72079.2614.3610.53~17.19<0.001
华南广东省279 616221.5013.7512.97~14.66<0.001
广西壮族自治区133 070265.139.268.78~9.84<0.001
海南省26 558262.4315.7614.68~16.91<0.001
华中湖北省106 672185.6812.8611.83~14.11<0.001
湖南省150 542226.5522.2421.29~23.30<0.001
河南省374 709376.939.008.27~10.04<0.001
华北北京市18 41584.13−3.93−5.91~–0.740.018
天津市992571.565.742.61~10.180.016
河北省100 247134.3112.6811.24~14.17<0.001
山西省105 520302.3510.289.44~11.30<0.001
内蒙古自治区91 811382.078.457.43~9.48<0.001
西北宁夏回族自治区9218127.859.877.69~12.51<0.001
新疆维吾尔自治区142 842551.519.598.65~10.60<0.001
青海省26 876453.228.616.47~10.75<0.001
陕西省93 556236.556.384.01~8.33<0.001
甘肃省107 725430.735.824.17~7.65<0.001
西南四川省124 461148.6815.4114.08~16.91<0.001
贵州省55 682144.3320.0018.92~21.34<0.001
云南省111 186235.4616.6615.47~18.03<0.001
西藏自治区55015.0326.4021.32~32.29<0.001
重庆市45 298141.1614.4713.02~16.10<0.001
东北辽宁省109 691257.796.305.07~7.52<0.001
吉林省94 339393.240.76−0.23~1.750.114
黑龙江省79 282250.020.48−1.14~1.940.518
), ArticleFig(id=1320438053756326550, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438037100745221, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2004—2020年中国大陆地区31个省(自治区、直辖市)丙肝报告发病情况及变化趋势

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地区省(自治区、直辖市)报告发病例数年均发病率/(1/10万)AAPC值/%95%CI
P值
华东山东省52 53151.6814.7613.67~15.96<0.001
江苏省43 18450.947.466.74~8.20<0.001
安徽省77 134126.3519.8019.12~20.51<0.001
浙江省38 73059.886.365.04~8.12<0.001
福建省32 40777.8811.1810.62~11.77<0.001
江西省34 50976.378.017.02~8.92<0.001
上海市19 72079.2614.3610.53~17.19<0.001
华南广东省279 616221.5013.7512.97~14.66<0.001
广西壮族自治区133 070265.139.268.78~9.84<0.001
海南省26 558262.4315.7614.68~16.91<0.001
华中湖北省106 672185.6812.8611.83~14.11<0.001
湖南省150 542226.5522.2421.29~23.30<0.001
河南省374 709376.939.008.27~10.04<0.001
华北北京市18 41584.13−3.93−5.91~–0.740.018
天津市992571.565.742.61~10.180.016
河北省100 247134.3112.6811.24~14.17<0.001
山西省105 520302.3510.289.44~11.30<0.001
内蒙古自治区91 811382.078.457.43~9.48<0.001
西北宁夏回族自治区9218127.859.877.69~12.51<0.001
新疆维吾尔自治区142 842551.519.598.65~10.60<0.001
青海省26 876453.228.616.47~10.75<0.001
陕西省93 556236.556.384.01~8.33<0.001
甘肃省107 725430.735.824.17~7.65<0.001
西南四川省124 461148.6815.4114.08~16.91<0.001
贵州省55 682144.3320.0018.92~21.34<0.001
云南省111 186235.4616.6615.47~18.03<0.001
西藏自治区55015.0326.4021.32~32.29<0.001
重庆市45 298141.1614.4713.02~16.10<0.001
东北辽宁省109 691257.796.305.07~7.52<0.001
吉林省94 339393.240.76−0.23~1.750.114
黑龙江省79 282250.020.48−1.14~1.940.518
), ArticleFig(id=1320438053831824023, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438037100745221, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Estimated relative risks (RR) of hepatitis C in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in the mainland of China, 2004–2020

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地区省(自治区、直辖市)20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
华东山东省0.0520.0870.0980.1150.1190.1300.1390.1840.2490.3120.3500.3620.3620.4470.5160.5260.493
江苏省0.1300.1390.1610.1690.1870.1890.2190.2170.2540.2930.2870.3310.3310.3450.3590.4680.441
安徽省0.0940.0990.1410.1790.2320.3100.3920.4810.6170.6900.7860.9210.9211.0981.2661.5391.424
浙江省0.1260.1560.1740.2150.2470.2670.3110.3330.4230.3310.3370.3660.3660.4170.3770.4310.449
福建省0.0740.0920.1460.1870.2700.3810.4470.4770.5810.5790.5960.6110.6110.5400.5030.4490.433
江西省0.1160.1350.1620.2140.2120.2720.3210.3770.4330.4940.6800.7430.7430.5210.5250.5160.456
上海市0.0500.0630.0910.0960.1210.1230.1320.1420.5720.5570.6280.6380.6380.8300.7480.8220.611
华南广东省0.1590.2700.4230.5650.7410.8881.0601.2191.4701.4491.5011.4861.4861.6871.6771.8171.693
广西壮族自治区0.3630.5050.6470.9091.1391.4411.6951.7811.7961.7621.6951.6171.6171.6941.7021.6411.546
海南省0.1400.1900.2220.3990.4970.5690.8000.9861.2461.7802.3712.9492.9492.6792.0991.9251.734
华中湖北省0.1690.2340.3460.5010.5950.7380.7710.9370.9771.1311.2151.3441.3441.6031.6811.5901.107
湖南省0.0840.1450.2120.3470.4460.6050.7810.9931.2721.5541.7151.7521.7521.9042.1802.3152.041
河南省0.4250.7261.0631.4441.6932.0422.4082.9003.5673.0742.5002.2132.2131.9181.9581.9221.632
华北北京市0.2990.4620.6490.6280.6200.6060.6130.5190.4300.3990.3710.3580.3580.3450.3550.2940.212
天津市0.1830.2450.4520.4510.2620.2560.2560.2700.2480.2450.2980.3930.3930.5030.5400.5910.814
河北省0.1220.1930.2480.3100.3280.4560.5330.6180.7610.8490.9561.1201.1211.1161.2121.1670.917
山西省0.3750.5580.7020.9831.0571.2001.3411.5521.9282.1702.2292.1652.1652.1442.1882.2861.926
内蒙古自治区0.5350.7471.0031.2211.3861.6982.0611.9702.5142.6032.5062.5482.5482.9512.9012.6172.067
西北宁夏回族自治区0.1610.2480.2220.3100.3530.4070.5610.7260.7780.6910.8030.9920.9920.9911.1771.0510.888
新疆维吾尔自治区0.3760.7071.4212.1882.6012.9303.0563.7853.8994.2484.0273.7663.7663.6913.4613.0812.131
青海省0.5890.8750.9021.5371.9652.7772.1952.3382.7173.1992.9942.9902.9913.3033.1462.8012.556
陕西省0.5080.6010.7650.8780.7700.8560.9501.0851.3451.3981.5361.6171.6171.8101.8261.8671.514
甘肃省1.0471.0401.1311.5741.9442.3492.6952.9993.1812.6652.3742.4132.4132.7542.7492.6272.201
西南四川省0.1390.2130.2150.2750.3390.4980.7370.8120.9270.9450.9441.0571.0571.0861.1571.3801.437
贵州省0.0740.1230.2050.2880.4210.5610.6440.7110.7220.8891.0251.0841.0851.2601.2641.1951.253
云南省0.1530.2490.4050.5060.6130.8201.0131.1131.3041.6211.6731.9521.9521.7682.0292.0741.785
西藏自治区0.0120.0140.0210.0390.0270.0400.0520.0670.0740.0550.0770.0790.0800.1350.1600.1870.182
重庆市0.1370.1600.2010.3260.4430.4570.5530.7050.7760.8810.9431.0851.0851.2781.1521.1651.108
东北辽宁省0.5730.5990.7720.8921.0491.1631.3261.3371.4211.3711.6861.8371.8371.8991.9271.8691.486
吉林省1.0771.2701.3971.7152.1332.6983.0683.3503.1732.4622.3342.3552.3551.6321.5321.5291.128
黑龙江省1.0020.9351.0561.1651.1961.4771.5041.5631.7901.7801.4361.3671.3671.3091.2661.2930.794
), ArticleFig(id=1320438054100259480, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438037100745221, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

2004—2020年中国大陆地区31个省(自治区、直辖市)丙肝报告发病RR值

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地区省(自治区、直辖市)20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
华东山东省0.0520.0870.0980.1150.1190.1300.1390.1840.2490.3120.3500.3620.3620.4470.5160.5260.493
江苏省0.1300.1390.1610.1690.1870.1890.2190.2170.2540.2930.2870.3310.3310.3450.3590.4680.441
安徽省0.0940.0990.1410.1790.2320.3100.3920.4810.6170.6900.7860.9210.9211.0981.2661.5391.424
浙江省0.1260.1560.1740.2150.2470.2670.3110.3330.4230.3310.3370.3660.3660.4170.3770.4310.449
福建省0.0740.0920.1460.1870.2700.3810.4470.4770.5810.5790.5960.6110.6110.5400.5030.4490.433
江西省0.1160.1350.1620.2140.2120.2720.3210.3770.4330.4940.6800.7430.7430.5210.5250.5160.456
上海市0.0500.0630.0910.0960.1210.1230.1320.1420.5720.5570.6280.6380.6380.8300.7480.8220.611
华南广东省0.1590.2700.4230.5650.7410.8881.0601.2191.4701.4491.5011.4861.4861.6871.6771.8171.693
广西壮族自治区0.3630.5050.6470.9091.1391.4411.6951.7811.7961.7621.6951.6171.6171.6941.7021.6411.546
海南省0.1400.1900.2220.3990.4970.5690.8000.9861.2461.7802.3712.9492.9492.6792.0991.9251.734
华中湖北省0.1690.2340.3460.5010.5950.7380.7710.9370.9771.1311.2151.3441.3441.6031.6811.5901.107
湖南省0.0840.1450.2120.3470.4460.6050.7810.9931.2721.5541.7151.7521.7521.9042.1802.3152.041
河南省0.4250.7261.0631.4441.6932.0422.4082.9003.5673.0742.5002.2132.2131.9181.9581.9221.632
华北北京市0.2990.4620.6490.6280.6200.6060.6130.5190.4300.3990.3710.3580.3580.3450.3550.2940.212
天津市0.1830.2450.4520.4510.2620.2560.2560.2700.2480.2450.2980.3930.3930.5030.5400.5910.814
河北省0.1220.1930.2480.3100.3280.4560.5330.6180.7610.8490.9561.1201.1211.1161.2121.1670.917
山西省0.3750.5580.7020.9831.0571.2001.3411.5521.9282.1702.2292.1652.1652.1442.1882.2861.926
内蒙古自治区0.5350.7471.0031.2211.3861.6982.0611.9702.5142.6032.5062.5482.5482.9512.9012.6172.067
西北宁夏回族自治区0.1610.2480.2220.3100.3530.4070.5610.7260.7780.6910.8030.9920.9920.9911.1771.0510.888
新疆维吾尔自治区0.3760.7071.4212.1882.6012.9303.0563.7853.8994.2484.0273.7663.7663.6913.4613.0812.131
青海省0.5890.8750.9021.5371.9652.7772.1952.3382.7173.1992.9942.9902.9913.3033.1462.8012.556
陕西省0.5080.6010.7650.8780.7700.8560.9501.0851.3451.3981.5361.6171.6171.8101.8261.8671.514
甘肃省1.0471.0401.1311.5741.9442.3492.6952.9993.1812.6652.3742.4132.4132.7542.7492.6272.201
西南四川省0.1390.2130.2150.2750.3390.4980.7370.8120.9270.9450.9441.0571.0571.0861.1571.3801.437
贵州省0.0740.1230.2050.2880.4210.5610.6440.7110.7220.8891.0251.0841.0851.2601.2641.1951.253
云南省0.1530.2490.4050.5060.6130.8201.0131.1131.3041.6211.6731.9521.9521.7682.0292.0741.785
西藏自治区0.0120.0140.0210.0390.0270.0400.0520.0670.0740.0550.0770.0790.0800.1350.1600.1870.182
重庆市0.1370.1600.2010.3260.4430.4570.5530.7050.7760.8810.9431.0851.0851.2781.1521.1651.108
东北辽宁省0.5730.5990.7720.8921.0491.1631.3261.3371.4211.3711.6861.8371.8371.8991.9271.8691.486
吉林省1.0771.2701.3971.7152.1332.6983.0683.3503.1732.4622.3342.3552.3551.6321.5321.5291.128
黑龙江省1.0020.9351.0561.1651.1961.4771.5041.5631.7901.7801.4361.3671.3671.3091.2661.2930.794
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2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙型病毒性肝炎发病贝叶斯时空分析:基于中国公共卫生科学数据
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杨颖 , 宋艾婧 , 林元修 , 刘鹏鲜 , 李晓睿 , 刘雅萍 , 宋肖肖 , 肖霞 *, *
中国公共卫生 | 调查报告与分析 2026,42(3): 308-313
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中国公共卫生 |调查报告与分析 2026 , 42 (3) : 308 -313
2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙型病毒性肝炎发病贝叶斯时空分析:基于中国公共卫生科学数据
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杨颖, 宋艾婧, 林元修, 刘鹏鲜, 李晓睿, 刘雅萍, 宋肖肖, 肖霞*, *
作者信息
  • 昆明医科大学公共卫生学院,昆明 650506
通讯作者:
肖霞,E-mail:
作者简介:

杨颖(2000—),硕士在读,研究方向:公共卫生

Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of hepatitis C incidence in the mainland of China, 2004–2020: based on public health scientific data from China
Ying YANG, Aijing SONG, Yuanxiu LIN, Pengxian LIU, Xiaorui LI, Yaping LIU, Xiaoxiao SONG, Xia XIAO
Affiliations
  • School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming 650506, China
  • Corresponding Author:
    XIAO Xia, E-mail:
出版时间: 2026-03-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1148063
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目的

分析2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)发病的流行趋势与时空分布特征,为丙肝的精准防控提供科学依据。

方法

收集中国公共卫生科学数据中心2004年1月1日—2020年12月31日31个省(自治区、直辖市)报告的丙肝发病数和发病率,应用Joinpoint回归模型通过计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)和年度变化百分比(APC)分析丙肝发病的时间趋势,并应用Bernardinelli贝叶斯时空模型对丙肝时空演化特征进行评估。

结果

2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝年均发病率为11.67/10万,2004—2020年丙肝发病率依次为3.03/10万、4.07/10万、5.41/10万、7.03/10万、8.21/10万、9.93/10万、11.47/10万、12.97/10万、14.96/10万、15.00/10万、14.97/10万、15.26/10万、15.09/10万、15.51/10万、15.79/10万、16.02/10万和13.82/10万,2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝发病率总体呈上升趋势 (AAPC=10.15%,95%CI=9.73%~10.64%);其中2004—2007年(APC=33.17%,95%CI=29.75%~39.81%)、2008—2012年(APC=15.79%,95%CI=14.03%~17.99%)和2013—2018年(APC=0.89%,95%CI=0.06%~5.08%)丙肝发病率均呈显著上升趋势,2019—2020年丙肝发病率呈显著下降趋势(APC= –4.82%,95%CI= –7.47%~–0.83%);丙肝发病率具有区域差异,其中新疆维吾尔自治区(551.51/10万)、青海省(453.22/10万)和甘肃省(430.73/10万)的丙肝年均发病率居于前3位,西藏自治区的丙肝发病率增长幅度最大(AAPC=26.40%,95%CI=21.32%~32.29%),而北京市的丙肝发病率则呈下降趋势(APC= –3.93%,95%CI= –5.91%~–0.74%);Bernardinelli贝叶斯时空模型结果显示,2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝的整体发病风险(RR)值介于0.012~4.248之间,其中西北地区(如新疆维吾尔自治区、青海省、甘肃省)估计的RR值普遍较高且波动幅度较大,而东南沿海(如浙江省、江苏省)和部分华北地区(如天津市、北京市)、西南地区(如西藏自治区)估计的RR值相对较低且波动幅度较小,大多数地区(如甘肃省、河南省、吉林省)的RR值呈先升后降变化,其RR值在2004年以后稳步上升,且在2013—2016年达到峰值后有所降低,而云南省、湖南省和四川省等省份则整体呈逐年上升趋势。

结论

2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝整体发病率呈上升趋势,且发病率在时间和空间上均有显著变化,高发地区主要集中于西北地区,部分西南部省份增长明显。

丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)  /  发病  /  贝叶斯时空分析  /  中国大陆地区
Objective

To analyze the epidemiological trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of hepatitis C incidence in the mainland of China from 2004 to 2020, thereby providing a scientific basis for precise prevention and control.

Methods

Data were obtained from the China Public Health Science Data Center, covering reported hepatitis C cases and incidence rates across 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2020. The Joinpoint regression model was adopted to analyze the temporal trends by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC), and the Bayesian spatiotemporal model proposed by Bernardinelli was employed to assess the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of hepatitis C.

Results

From 2004 to 2020, the average annual incidence of hepatitis C in the mainland of China was 11.67 per 100 000, with yearly rates of 3.03, 4.07, 5.41, 7.03, 8.21, 9.93, 11.47, 12.97, 14.96, 15.00, 14.97, 15.26, 15.09, 15.51, 15.79, 16.02, and 13.82 per 100 000, respectively, showing an overall increasing trend (AAPC = 10.15%, 95%CI: 9.73%–10.64%). Significant upward trends were observed during 2004–2007 (APC = 33.17%, 95%CI: 29.75%–39.81%), 2008–2012 (APC = 15.79%, 95%CI: 14.03%–17.99%), and 2013–2018 (APC = 0.89%, 95%CI: 0.06%–5.08%), whereas a decline occurred during 2019–2020 (APC = –4.82%, 95%CI: –7.47% to –0.83%). Regional disparities were evident, with Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (551.51/100 000), Qinghai province (453.22/100 000), and Gansu province (430.73/100 000) exhibiting the highest average annual incidences, Xizang Autonomous Region showing the largest increase (AAPC = 26.40%, 95%CI: 21.32%–32.29%), and Beijing demonstrating a declining trend (APC = –3.93%, 95%CI: –5.91% to –0.74%). The Bayesian spatiotemporal model proposed by Bernardinelli indicated that the relative risk (RR) of hepatitis C across the mainland of China from 2004 to 2020 ranged from 0.012 to 4.248. Higher and more fluctuating RR values were observed in northwestern regions (including Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Qinghai province, and Gansu province), whereas southeastern coastal provinces (e.g., Zhejiang, Jiangsu), parts of northern China (e.g., Tianjin and Beijing), and southwestern regions (e.g., Xizang Autonomous Region) showed lower and more stable RR values. The RR values of most provincial-level administrative regions, such as Gansu province, Henan province, and Jilin province, displayed a rise–fall pattern, steadily increasing after 2004, peaking between 2013 and 2016, and then decreasing, while Yunnan province, Hunan province, and Sichuan province exhibited a continuous upward trend throughout the study period.

Conclusion

Between 2004 and 2020, the overall incidence of hepatitis C in the mainland of China exhibited an upward trend, with significant temporal and spatial variations. High-risk areas were concentrated in northwestern China, while certain provincial-level administrative regions in southwestern China showed marked increases in the incidence.

hepatitis C virus (HCV)  /  incidence  /  Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis  /  the mainland of China
杨颖, 宋艾婧, 林元修, 刘鹏鲜, 李晓睿, 刘雅萍, 宋肖肖, 肖霞. 2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙型病毒性肝炎发病贝叶斯时空分析:基于中国公共卫生科学数据. 中国公共卫生, 2026 , 42 (3) : 308 -313 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1148063
Ying YANG, Aijing SONG, Yuanxiu LIN, Pengxian LIU, Xiaorui LI, Yaping LIU, Xiaoxiao SONG, Xia XIAO. Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of hepatitis C incidence in the mainland of China, 2004–2020: based on public health scientific data from China[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2026 , 42 (3) : 308 -313 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1148063
丙型病毒性肝炎(简称“丙肝”)是由丙型肝炎病毒引起的一种严重传染病,主要通过血液、母婴和性接触传播,该病起病隐匿、自愈率低,极易发展为慢性肝病,是导致肝硬化和肝细胞癌的重要诱因,严重威胁人类健康[1]。据世界卫生组织最新估计,截至2022 年,全球约有5 000万人患有慢性丙型肝炎,每年约有100 万例新发感染,约 24.2 万人死于与丙肝相关的并发症,是全球公共卫生的重要挑战。中国是全球丙肝流行较为严重的国家之一,相关疾病负担严重,原发性肝癌的发病率和死亡率占全球半数以上,丙肝相关肝硬化和肝癌病例占相当比例[2]。由于目前尚无可用于人群的有效丙肝疫苗,因此防治形势十分严峻,感染丙型肝炎病毒已成为突出的公共卫生问题之一[3]。既往研究多通过空间自相关分析和空间–时间扫描方法描绘丙肝的时空分布特征[4],但基于Bernardinelli贝叶斯时空模型的研究却较少。近年来,Bernardinelli L等[5]提出的贝叶斯时空模型作为贝叶斯时空层级模型的一种典型形式,能够同时考虑空间结构化与非结构化效应以及地区特异的时间变化,从而更精细地揭示丙肝的时空异质性,为揭示疾病风险的地理和时间动态提供了强有力的工具。为分析2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝发病的流行趋势与时空分布特征,为丙肝的精准防控提供科学依据,本研究收集中国公共卫生科学数据中心2004年1月1日—2020年12月31日31个省(自治区、直辖市)报告的丙肝发病数和发病率,应用Joinpoint回归模型通过计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change, AAPC)和年度变化百分比(annual percent change, APC)分析丙肝发病的时间趋势,并应用Bernardinelli贝叶斯时空模型对丙肝时空演化特征进行评估。结果报告如下。
2004年1月1日—2020年12月31日中国大陆31个省(自治区、直辖市)的丙肝报告发病数和发病率来源于中国公共卫生科学数据中心(http://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share/index.html?8defcfc2-b9a4-4225-b92c-ebb002321cea),其中丙肝按照《WS 213—2008 丙型病毒性肝炎诊断标准》[6]和《WS 213—2018 丙型肝炎诊断》[7]的诊断标准进行判断;人口学资料来源于国家统计年鉴第七次全国人口普查结果[8]。
应用Joinpoint 5.2.0软件建立Joinpoint回归模型,根据AAPC/APC值、95%CI及对应的P值来判断报告发病率变化趋势是否有统计学意义。当P>0.05时,变化趋势平稳;当P≤0.05时,AAPC/APC值为正值时表示上升趋势,AAPC/APC值为负值时表示下降趋势[9]。本研究应用Bernardinelli贝叶斯时空模型[10]对丙肝时空演化特征进行评估,以估计中国丙肝在不同地区和时间段的疾病相对风险(relative risk, RR),同时引入时间的二次项效应以捕捉非线性的长期趋势。假设在第$ j $年第$ i $个区域丙肝发病数为$ \mathit{Y_{{ij}}} $,由于丙肝发病率较低,因此可认为丙肝发病数$ {Y}_{{ij}} $遵循平均值$ {e}_{{ij}}{r}_{{ij}} $的泊松分布,即$ Y_{i j} \mid \theta_{i j} \sim \operatorname{Poisson}\left(e_{i j} \theta_{i j}\right) $。其中,$ {e}_{{ij}} $为疾病期望发病人数,$ {\theta }_{{ij}} $为在第$ j $年在第$ i $个区域实际发病人数与预期发病人数的比值,即疾病发病的RR。对$ {\theta }_{{ij}} $取对数后进行线性建模,具体形式如下:$ \text{log}\left({\theta }_{ij}\right)=\alpha +{\mu }_{i}+{v}_{i}+({\beta }_{1}+{\delta }_{1i}){t}_{j}+{\beta }_{2}{{t}_{j}}^{2} $。其中$ ,\alpha $为全局截距项;$ {\mu }_{i} $和$ {v}_{i} $分别表示区域i的空间结构化随机效应和非结构化随机效应;$ {\beta }_{1} $为全局时间趋势线性项系数;$ {\delta }_{1i} $为区域i的时间趋势偏移量;$ {\beta }_{2} $为全局时间趋势的二次项系数;$ {t}_{j} $为时间变量,表示第j个观测年份对应的时间数值。为各参数指定如下先验分布:固定效应先验:$ \alpha\sim {N}(0,1\;000),\beta_1\sim{N}({0,1\;000}),\beta_2\sim{N}(0,1\;000) $;空间非结构化效应:$ {v}_{i}~{N}(0,{{\sigma }_{v}}^{2}),{{\sigma }_{v}}^{2}~ Inverse- Gamma \left(\mathrm{0.01,0.01}\right) $,其中,$ {\sigma }_{v}^{2} $表示空间非结构化效应$ {v}_{i} $的方差,空间结构化效应采用内在条件自回归模型(intrinsic conditional autoregressive model,ICAR):$ {u}_{i}'{u}_{-i}~{N}(\frac{1}{{n}_{i}}{\sum }_{j\in \partial i}{u}_{j},\frac{1}{{n}_{i}{\tau }_{u}}),{\tau }_{u}~Gamma(\mathrm{1,0.01}) $,$ \sum j\in {\partial }_{i} $表示对第i个区域的所有邻居区域j的和,$ {\partial }_{i} $表示与第i个区域相邻的区域集合,$ {n}_{i} $是邻接区域个数,$ {u}_{j} $是第j个空间区域对应的结构化空间随机效应值,$ \tau $表示精度,是方差的倒数即$ \tau =\frac{1}{{\sigma }^{2}} $;时间交互效应:$ \delta_i~\mathit{\rm{\mathit{N}}}(0,\sigma_{\delta}^2),\sigma_{\delta}^2~Inverse-Gamma \left(\mathrm{0.01,0.01}\right) $,其中$ {\delta }_{i} $是第i个区域的时间线性随机偏差,$ {\sigma }_{\delta }^{2} $是这些偏差的方差,控制各地区时间趋势差异的幅度。模型拟合采用R 4.3.1中的INLA包实现。检验水准均为双侧检验ɑ=0.05。
2004—2020年中国大陆地区累计报告丙肝发病数为2 696 006例,年均发病率为11.67/10万;2004、2005、2006、2007、2008、2009、2010、2011、2012、2013、2014、2015、2016、2017、2018、2019和2020年报告丙肝发病数分别为39 381、52 927、70 681、92 378、108 446、131 849、153 039、173 872、201 622、203 155、202 803、207 897、206 832、214 023、219 375、223 660和194 066例,发病率分别为3.03/10万、4.07/10万、5.41/10万、7.03/10万、8.21/10万、9.93/10万、11.47/10万、12.97/10万、14.96/10万、15.00/10万、14.97/10万、15.26/10万、15.09/10万、15.51/10万、15.79/10万、16.02/10万和13.82/10万,2004—2020年丙肝发病率总体呈上升趋势(AAPC=10.15%,95%CI=9.73%~10.64%,P<0.001);其中2004—2007年(APC=33.17%,95%CI=29.75%~39.81%,P<0.001)、2008—2012年(APC=15.79%,95%CI=14.03%~17.99%,P<0.001)和2013—2018年(APC=0.89%,95%CI=0.06%~5.08%,P=0.041)丙肝发病率均呈显著上升趋势,2019—2020年丙肝发病率呈显著下降趋势(APC= −4.82%,95%CI= –7.47%~ −0.83%,P=0.012)。
Joinpoint回归分析结果显示,2004—2020年中国大陆地区28个省(自治区、直辖市)的丙肝报告发病率呈上升趋势(均P<0.05),且丙肝报告发病率具有区域差异,其中新疆维吾尔自治区、青海省和甘肃省等部分省份的丙肝报告发病率较高,而江苏省和山东省等东部沿海省份的丙肝报告发病率相对较低;西藏自治区、湖南省和贵州省等省份的丙肝报告发病率增长迅速(均P<0.001)。北京市是丙肝报告发病率唯一呈明显下降趋势的地区(AAPC= –3.93%,95%CI= –5.91%~−0.74%,P=0.018),而东北地区吉林省和黑龙江省的丙肝报告发病率在2004—2020年变化趋势差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。
Bernardinelli贝叶斯时空模型分析结果显示,2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝发病整体RR值介于0.012~4.248之间,西北地区如新疆维吾尔自治区、青海省和甘肃省的丙肝发病RR值较高,而东南沿海地区如浙江省、江苏省、福建省以及部分华北地区如天津市、北京市和西南地区如西藏自治区、贵州省的丙肝发病RR值较低。RR时间动态序列结果显示,西南如西藏自治区和东部沿海省份如江苏省、浙江省在整个研究期间的RR值大多保持在<1.0且波动幅度较小;但多数地区如甘肃省、河南省、吉林省的RR值则呈先升高而后降低的变化趋势,其RR值在2004年以后稳步上升,在2013—2016年达到峰值随后回落。此外,云南省、湖南省和四川省尽管RR值在2004年相对较低,但整体呈逐年上升趋势。
本研究结果显示,2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝报告发病率整体呈上升趋势,与其他研究结果一致[3, 11],这可能与2004年传染病病例网络直报系统的建立以及哨点监测的推广有关,其中,2010年增设5类87个丙肝监测哨点,每年持续在人群中开展丙肝抗体监测,提高了报告的准确性和完整性。2004—2018年丙肝报告发病率呈上升趋势,其中2004—2007年丙肝报告发病率上升最快(APC=33.17%,95%CI=29.75%~39.81%,P<0.001),与Sun N等[12]研究结果一致,但在2019—2020年丙肝报告发病率明显下降趋势(APC= –4.82%,95%CI= –7.47%~−0.83%,P=0.012),这可能与2018年实施的《WS 213—2018 丙型病毒性肝炎诊断标准》[6]对规范和更新丙肝预防、诊断和抗病毒治疗等均给出了具体指导以及2020年新型冠状病毒感染疫情对丙肝检测具有一定影响有关。
Joinpoint回归结果显示,2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝报告发病率居于前3位的依次为新疆维吾尔自治区(551.51/10万)、青海省(453.22/10万)和甘肃省(430.73/10万),与Tian G等[13]研究结果一致,此3个省份(自治区)均位于我国西部地区,年报告发病率高的原因可能与社会经济条件较低相关,有研究表明经济欠发达地区居民的文化水平较低,丙肝防治知识普及率不足[14],防控意识薄弱,缺乏有效的防控措施,这使得该地区的丙肝发病风险较高;同时,由于卫生资源匮乏、专业技术人才短缺以及疾病预防控制能力不足等问题,进一步加剧了该地区丙肝的传播风险。此外,西藏自治区(AAPC=26.40%,95%CI=21.32%~32.29%)、湖南省(AAPC=22.24%,95%CI=21.29%~23.30%)和贵州省(AAPC=20.00%,95%CI=18.92%~21.34%)等省份的丙肝报告发病率增长迅速(均P<0.001),可能原因为检测能力提升导致报告数增加以及高危行为如共用针具、早期非法采供血及医疗操作不规范、外出务工人员感染后返乡传播等[15]。为此,应加大西部高风险地区的防控投入,包括加强筛查、优化治疗和普及健康教育[16–17];同时,重点关注丙肝发病增长迅速的地区,采取针对性措施,有效遏制其发展趋势,并结合国家《消除丙型肝炎公共卫生危害行动工作方案(2021—2030年)》[18],实施因地制宜的综合干预,推动实现丙肝公共卫生危害的彻底消除。
Bernardinelli模型引入地区固定效应、空间结构效应及线性与非线性的时间效应,可有效捕捉传染病在不同时空尺度下的变化特征 [19]。2004—2020年中国大陆地区丙肝发病整体RR值介于0.012~4.248之间,西北地区如新疆维吾尔自治区、青海省和甘肃省的丙肝发病RR值较高,而东南沿海地区如浙江省、江苏省、福建省以及部分华北地区如天津市、北京市和西南地区如西藏自治区、贵州省的丙肝发病RR值较低。RR时间动态序列结果显示,西南如西藏自治区和东部沿海省份如江苏省、浙江省在整个研究期间的RR值大多保持在<1.0且波动幅度较小;但多数地区如甘肃省、河南省、吉林省的RR值则呈先升高而后降低的变化趋势,其RR值在2004年以后稳步上升,在2013—2016年达到峰值随后回落。此外,云南省、湖南省和四川省尽管RR值在2004年相对较低,但整体呈逐年上升趋势。
本研究分析结果显示,西北地区如新疆维吾尔自治区、青海省和甘肃省持续处于高风险状态,这可能与该地区特殊的地理环境、社会经济状况以及医疗卫生资源分布不均等有关[20],这可能与西部地区地广人稀、医疗资源相对匮乏、丙肝筛查和治疗的可及性较低,导致感染后未能及时发现和治疗,进而增加了传播风险。相比之下,东南沿海地区如浙江省、江苏省、福建省以及部分华北地区如天津市、北京市和西南地区如西藏自治区、贵州省的丙肝发病风险较低,可能是因为沿海和部分华北地区经济较为发达,医疗卫生条件较好,因此丙肝的筛查和治疗更为普及;且西藏自治区和贵州省地区地理环境复杂、部分地区交通不便,限制了人口流动和外界接触,也在一定程度上减少了丙肝病毒的输入与传播,从而降低了发病风险。本研究结果还显示,多数地区丙肝发病RR值在2015年前后达到峰值后有所下降,可能与2015年国家卫生健康委发布的《丙型肝炎防治指南(2015年更新版)》[21]中明确提出加强重点人群筛查与随访管理有关。此外,本研究发现云南省、湖南省和四川省尽管RR值在2004年相对较低,但整体呈逐年上升趋势。这可能是因为云南省和四川省同属西南地区,地理上毗邻“金三角”,注射吸毒人群基数较大,因此使得丙肝通过共用针具传播的风险显著增加,研究表明2013—2022年云南省吸毒者中丙肝病毒感染率高达 27.46%[22],说明该高风险群体对丙肝传播影响很大;而湖南省属于华中地区,其RR值上升可能与经济发展和人口流动加快相关,跨区域流动增加了丙肝病毒的输入和传播风险。因此,未来丙肝防控策略应聚焦于“高风险–高增长”和“高风险–低增长”地区,采取双重维度精确干预策略优化公共卫生资源配置,提升西部地区的丙肝检测能力及治疗可及性,同时针对长期高风险但增长缓慢的地区,加强持续监测与早期干预,以实现整体疾病负担的有效降低。
综上所述,为有效控制丙肝的传播,我国丙肝防控需注重西北高发地区的资源投入,包括提高检测覆盖率、优化治疗体系和加强健康教育等;还应进一步完善中西部地区的公共卫生基础设施,缩小其与东部地区的差距。与此同时,针对静脉注射毒品者等高风险人群,应通过社区干预和监测网络降低传播风险。此外,未来研究可结合社会行为与环境因素,深化对丙肝传播机制的认识,以便制定更精准的公共卫生政策,加速实现丙肝消除目标。本研究存在的局限性为:数据来源于公共卫生科学数据中心,其公布的最新数据截止到2020年,且仅能获取到月度数据,缺乏性别和职业等个案信息以及社会经济等影响因素,可能限制了模型对影响因素的解释能力;此外,监测数据本身可能存在报告不全、漏报或延迟等偏倚,这些问题在一定程度上可能影响模型的精确性。针对上述局限性,今后的研究可通过获取更高分辨率的个案级数据,并结合多源监测数据或开展前瞻性队列调查,以增强模型对发病风险的解释能力,并减少漏报和延迟带来的偏倚。

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2026年第42卷第3期
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doi: 10.11847/zgggws1148063
  • 接收时间:2025-05-27
  • 首发时间:2026-10-23
  • 出版时间:2026-03-10
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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-27
  • 修回日期:2025-10-14
  • 录用日期:2025-12-03
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    昆明医科大学公共卫生学院,昆明 650506

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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