Article(id=1320438050375709098, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320438006813672182, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1146924, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1736524800000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-11, revisedDate=1746806400000, revisedDateStr=2025-05-10, acceptedDate=1754409600000, acceptedDateStr=2025-08-06, onlineDate=1792746563762, onlineDateStr=2026-10-23, pubDate=1773072000000, pubDateStr=2026-03-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792746563762, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792746563762, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792746563762, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1320438006813672182, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2026', volume='42', issue='3', pageStart='257', pageEnd='384', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1773072000000', pubDateStr='2026-03-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792746553376, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792748100383, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1320444495519404406, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320438006813672182, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1320444495519404407, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320438006813672182, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=271, endPage=276, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1320438050778362283, articleId=1320438050375709098, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Comparison of the premature death probability and disease burden of major chronic diseases along with their changing trends between residents in chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention demonstration areas and non-demonstration areas in Jinan from 2013 to 2023, columnId=1320438008931795703, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Special Report—Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To compare the premature death probability and disease burden of major chronic diseases along with their changing trends among residents in chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention demonstration areas (demonstration areas) and non-demonstration areas in Jinan city, thus providing a basis for improving the residents′ health.

Methods

Using mortality data from three demonstration areas and three non-demonstration areas in Jinan, 2013 – 2023, we compared and analyzed age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), premature mortality probability, and standardized years of life lost (YLL) rates of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), malignant tumors, chronic respiratory diseases (CRD), and diabetes mellitus (DM). The changing trends were assessed based on the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

Results

The demonstration areas had higher average ASMR and standardized YLL rates of CVD, malignant tumors, and the four major chronic diseases and lower average ASMR and standardized YLL rates of CRD and DM than the non-demonstration areas. Significant declining trends were observed for the ASMR of CVD (AAPC = –1.33%, 95%CI: –2.21% to –0.46%), malignant tumors (AAPC = –3.33%, 95%CI: –4.47% to –2.18%), CRD (AAPC = –6.69%, 95%CI: –8.29% to –5.07%), and the four major chronic diseases (AAPC = –2.22%, 95%CI: –2.94% to –1.50%) as well as the standardized YLL rates of CVD (AAPC = –1.66%, 95%CI: –2.50% to –0.81%), malignant tumors (AAPC = –3.96%, 95%CI: –5.23% to –2.68%), CRD (AAPC = –7.41%, 95%CI: –9.12% to –5.67%), and the four major chronic diseases (AAPC = –2.73%, 95%CI: –3.42% to –2.04%), with greater declines in the demonstration areas. The demonstration areas had higher average annual premature death probabilities of malignant tumors and the four major chronic diseases and lower average annual premature death probabilities of CVD, CRD, and DM than the non-demonstration areas. Reductions in premature death probability were observed for CVD (AAPC = –1.70%, 95%CI: –2.57% to –0.82%), malignant tumors (AAPC = –3.60%, 95%CI: –4.80% to –2.39%), CRD (AAPC = –5.81%, 95%CI: –7.90% to –3.68%), and the four major chronic diseases (AAPC = –2.56%, 95%CI: –3.36% to –1.75%), with greater declines in the demonstration areas.

Conclusions

The establishment of demonstration areas in Jinan has significantly reduced premature death burden from CVD, malignant tumors, and CRD. These interventions have shown pronounced benefits for the people aged 30–69. Nevertheless, the prevention and control of DM still need to be strengthened.

, authors=Ying WANG, Xia MA, Qingchang WANG, Nan WANG, Ziyu WANG, Leiqi CAI, Ailing QI, Jun ZHANG, authorsList=Ying WANG, Xia MA, Qingchang WANG, Nan WANG, Ziyu WANG, Leiqi CAI, Ailing QI, Jun ZHANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Jun ZHANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
ZHANG Jun, E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2026 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1320438051638194606, articleId=1320438050375709098, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区居民重大慢性病早死概率和疾病负担及其变化趋势比较, columnId=1320438009145705209, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=专题报道——慢性病预防与控制, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

比较山东省济南市慢性病综合防控示范区(示范区)与非示范区居民重大慢性病早死概率和疾病负担及其变化趋势,为提升居民健康水平提供参考。

方法

收集中国疾病预防控制中心“人口死亡信息登记管理系统”中济南市3个示范区和3个非示范区2013—2023年居民心脑血管疾病(CVD)、恶性肿瘤、慢性呼吸系统疾病(CRD)和糖尿病(DM)四类重大慢性病死亡数据,比较示范区与非示范区居民四类重大慢性病标化死亡率、早死概率和标化过早死亡寿命损失年(YLL)率,并采用年均变化百分比(AAPC)比较其变化趋势。

结果

济南市示范区居民CVD、恶性肿瘤、四大慢性病年均标化死亡率和标化YLL率均高于非示范区,CRD、DM年均标化死亡率和标化YLL率均低于非示范区,CVD(AAPC= –1.33%,95%CI= –2.21%~–0.46%)、恶性肿瘤(AAPC= –3.33%,95%CI= –4.47%~–2.18%)、CRD(AAPC= –6.69%,95%CI= –8.29%~–5.07%)、四大慢性病(AAPC= –2.22%,95%CI= –2.94%~–1.50%)标化死亡率以及CVD(AAPC= –1.66%,95%CI= –2.50%~–0.81%)、恶性肿瘤(AAPC= –3.96%,95%CI= –5.23%~–2.68%)、CRD(AAPC= –7.41%,95%CI= –9.12%~–5.67%)、四大慢性病(AAPC= –2.73%,95%CI= –3.42%~–2.04%)标化YLL率均呈下降趋势且降幅大于非示范区;示范区居民恶性肿瘤和四大慢性病年均早死概率均高于非示范区,CVD、CRD和DM年均早死概率均低于非示范区,CVD(AAPC= –1.70%,95%CI= –2.57%~–0.82%)、恶性肿瘤(AAPC= –3.60%,95%CI= –4.80%~–2.39%)、CRD(AAPC= –5.81%,95%CI= –7.90%~–3.68%)和四大慢性病(AAPC= –2.56%,95%CI= –3.36%~–1.75%)早死概率均呈下降趋势,且降幅大于非示范区。

结论

济南市示范区建设可降低CVD、恶性肿瘤和CRD早死负担,30~69岁人群获益明显,但DM防控仍需加强。

, authors=王莹, 马霞, 王庆昌, 王楠, 王子瑜, 蔡雷琦, 亓爱玲, 张军*, *, authorsList=王莹, 马霞, 王庆昌, 王楠, 王子瑜, 蔡雷琦, 亓爱玲, 张军, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=张军, authorNote=

王莹(1978—),副主任技师,硕士,研究方向:慢性病预防与控制

, correspAuthorsNote=
张军,E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=版权所有 © 《中国公共卫生》编辑部 2026, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=YRfoqWxi2QLklXDz6UxaEw==, magXml=eqTLMmSCUb8pUcP+98051A==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=ADi/0qjW+8fwu7jnMtLHEA==, pdfFileSize=501959, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=CJpPJEzhkEyH8m2PHCjryg==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1320438052158288307, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438052388975029, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438052158288307, language=EN, stringName=Ying WANG, firstName=Ying, middleName=null, lastName=WANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438052460278198, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438052158288307, language=CN, stringName=王莹, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio={"content":"

王莹(1978—),副主任技师,硕士,研究方向:慢性病预防与控制

"}, bioImg=null, bioContent=

王莹(1978—),副主任技师,硕士,研究方向:慢性病预防与控制

, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438052812599736, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=1, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438052892291514, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438052812599736, language=EN, stringName=Xia MA, firstName=Xia, middleName=null, lastName=MA, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438053232030139, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438052812599736, language=CN, stringName=马霞, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438053311721917, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=2, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438053647266239, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438053311721917, language=EN, stringName=Qingchang WANG, firstName=Qingchang, middleName=null, lastName=WANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438053764706752, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438053311721917, language=CN, stringName=王庆昌, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438053928284610, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=3, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054033142212, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438053928284610, language=EN, stringName=Nan WANG, firstName=Nan, middleName=null, lastName=WANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054125416901, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438053928284610, language=CN, stringName=王楠, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438054209302983, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=4, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054297383369, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054209302983, language=EN, stringName=Ziyu WANG, firstName=Ziyu, middleName=null, lastName=WANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054377075146, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054209302983, language=CN, stringName=王子瑜, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438054460961228, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=5, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054549041614, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054460961228, language=EN, stringName=Leiqi CAI, firstName=Leiqi, middleName=null, lastName=CAI, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054624539087, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054460961228, language=CN, stringName=蔡雷琦, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438054721008081, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=6, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054804894163, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054721008081, language=EN, stringName=Ailing QI, firstName=Ailing, middleName=null, lastName=QI, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054897168852, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054721008081, language=CN, stringName=亓爱玲, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438054981054934, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=7, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=cdczhangjun@163.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=1, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438055073329624, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054981054934, language=EN, stringName=Jun ZHANG, firstName=Jun, middleName=null, lastName=ZHANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438055161410009, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054981054934, language=CN, stringName=张军, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=*, *, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])])], keywords=[Keyword(id=1320438055266267610, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, orderNo=1, keyword=major chronic diseases), Keyword(id=1320438055337570779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, orderNo=2, keyword=premature death probability), Keyword(id=1320438055425651164, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, orderNo=3, keyword=disease burden), Keyword(id=1320438055488565725, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, orderNo=4, keyword=changing trend), Keyword(id=1320438055551480286, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, orderNo=5, keyword=chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention), Keyword(id=1320438055614394847, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, orderNo=6, keyword=demonstration areas), Keyword(id=1320438055677309408, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, orderNo=7, keyword=non-demonstration areas), Keyword(id=1320438055761195489, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, orderNo=8, keyword=Jinan city), Keyword(id=1320438055836692962, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=重大慢性病), Keyword(id=1320438055903801827, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, orderNo=2, keyword=早死概率), Keyword(id=1320438055979299300, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, orderNo=3, keyword=疾病负担), Keyword(id=1320438056054796773, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, orderNo=4, keyword=变化趋势), Keyword(id=1320438056134488550, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, orderNo=5, keyword=慢性病综合防控), Keyword(id=1320438056205791719, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, orderNo=6, keyword=示范区), Keyword(id=1320438056340009448, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, orderNo=7, keyword=非示范区), Keyword(id=1320438056411312617, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, orderNo=8, keyword=济南市)], refs=[Reference(id=1320438057111761392, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=1, rfOrder=0, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=中华人民共和国中央人民政府. 卫生部办公厅关于印发《慢性非传染性疾病综合防控示范区管理办法》的通知[EB/OL]. (2011-03-24)[2024-12-24].https://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2011-03/24/content_1830841.htm., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057191453169, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=2, rfOrder=1, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=李交研, 韩慧楠, 王晓宇, 等. 重大疾病群防群控共性问题与组织行为[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2024, 40(9): 1144-1148., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057262756338, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=3, rfOrder=2, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=廖爱梅, 方菁, 肖传浩, 等. 云南省四类慢性病早死概率实现2030年可持续发展目标预测分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2020, 36(10): 1443-1446., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057342448115, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=4, rfOrder=3, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=World Health Organization. World health statistics 2024: monitoring health for the SDGs, sustainable development goals[EB/OL]. (2024-05-21)[2025-04-21].https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240094703., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057422139892, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=5, rfOrder=4, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=中华人民共和国中央人民政府. 中共中央 国务院印发《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》[EB/OL]. (2016-10-25)[2024-12-21]. https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-10/25/content_5124174.htm, articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057493443061, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=6, rfOrder=5, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=山东省人民政府. 山东省人民政府关于贯彻健康中国行动推进健康山东建设的实施意见[EB/OL]. (2019-11-27)[2025-04-21]. http://www.shandong.gov.cn/art/2019/11/27/art_2259_63540.html., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057564746230, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=7, rfOrder=6, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=山东省卫生健康委员会. 省委、省政府印发《“健康山东2030”规划纲要》[EB/OL]. (2018-02-12)[2025-04-21]. http://wsjkw.shandong.gov.cn/zwgk/ghjh/201802/t20180212_3493228.html., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057623466487, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=8, rfOrder=7, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=中华人民共和国中央人民政府. 卫生部办公厅关于公布2011年度国家慢性病综合防控示范区考评结果的通知[EB/OL]. (2011-12-08)[2025-05-08].https://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2011-12/14/content_2020002.htm., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057703158264, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=9, rfOrder=8, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=山东省卫生厅. 山东省卫生厅关于命名济南市市中区等9个县(市、区)为山东省慢性非传染性疾病综合防控示范县(市、区)的通报[Z]. 鲁卫疾控发〔2013〕8号, 2013-12-26., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057778655737, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=10, rfOrder=9, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=国家卫生计生委办公厅. 国家卫生计生委办公厅关于公布第三批国家慢性病综合防控示范区审核结果的通知[EB/OL]. (2014-12-26)[2025-05-08].https://wsjkw.sc.gov.cn/scwsjkw/csgz2/2014/12/29/ea51877ee8e34df0821397cdd7ed3c3f.shtml., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057849958906, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=11, rfOrder=10, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=董景五, 北京协和医院世界卫生组织国际分类家族合作中心. 疾病和有关健康问题的国际统计分类–第三卷–字母顺序索引[M]. 2版. 北京: 人民卫生出版社, 2008., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438057925456379, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=12, rfOrder=11, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=国务院人口普查办公室, 国家统计局人口和就业统计司. 中国2010年人口普查资料[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2012., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058005148156, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=13, rfOrder=12, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=胡雨佳, 尹春, 李靖, 等. 金昌队列随访人群2011—2020年循环系统疾病死亡率及早死概率变化趋势分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2022, 38(10): 1305-1309., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058072257021, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=14, rfOrder=13, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=中国健康管理协会. 中国国民健康状况指标(T/CHAA 006—2019)[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(3): 239-260., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058156143102, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=15, rfOrder=14, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Vos T, Lim S S, Abbafati C, et al. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019[J]. The Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1204-1222., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058235834879, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=16, rfOrder=15, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=陈三仟, 熊炜, 万信, 等. 2012—2021年江西省南昌市新建区4类慢性病早死负担分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(1): 101-105., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058319720960, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=17, rfOrder=16, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=赵倩. 济南慢性病示范区创建成效初显[N/OL]. (2024-04-25)[2025-04-23].https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1797282138327744419&wfr=spider&for=pc., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058403607041, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=18, rfOrder=17, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=丁贤彬, 毛德强, 唐文革, 等. 重庆市慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区主要慢性病早死概率趋势变化分析[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2018, 26(10): 725-729., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058470715906, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=19, rfOrder=18, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=秦发举, 陈远源, 黄婷苑, 等. 广州市慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区主要慢性病早死概率趋势分析[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2022, 30(6): 473-476., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058542019075, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=20, rfOrder=19, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=丁贤彬, 唐文革, 毛德强, 等. 慢性病综合防控示范区建设对主要慢性病早死概率的影响[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2018, 26(1): 1-4., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058609127940, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=21, rfOrder=20, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=杨璧榕, 余龙涛, 李震萍, 等. 2012—2019年云南省肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤的发病与死亡趋势分析[J]. 中国肿瘤, 2024, 33(2): 125-133., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058688819717, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=22, rfOrder=21, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=肖笑笑. 2013—2021年临沂市四类主要慢性病早死概率及趋势分析[J]. 公共卫生与预防医学, 2024, 35(1): 116-120., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058781094406, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=23, rfOrder=22, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=李少芳, 轩水丽, 邢天放, 等. 2015—2020年河南省四类慢性病早死概率及“健康中国2030”指标达标分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(7): 895-900., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058869174791, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=24, rfOrder=23, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=邱琳, 王维华, 刘蓉, 等. 2015—2020年陕西省主要慢性病早死概率[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2022, 26(3): 337-342., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438058944672264, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=25, rfOrder=24, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=刘杰, 颜玮, 刘明, 等. 江西省2014—2018年死因监测地区主要慢性病早死概率分析[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2020, 37(2): 253-255., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438059020169737, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=26, rfOrder=25, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=李斐斐, 赵园园, 田小草, 等. 2015—2019年青岛市主要慢性病死亡情况及早死概率分析[J]. 中国公共卫生管理, 2022, 38(5): 663-666., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438059099861514, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=27, rfOrder=26, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=杜卫萍, 周媛, 李心伟, 等. 2014—2019年山东省泰安市4种慢性病早死概率及变化趋势研究[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(4): 537-542., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438059166970379, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=28, rfOrder=27, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=廖佳, 魏双翼, 刘刚. 2014—2020年深圳市户籍居民主要慢性病过早死亡情况及变化趋势研究[J]. 中国全科医学, 2022, 25(32): 4085-4090., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438059255050764, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=29, rfOrder=28, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=乔冬菊, 王良友, 娄雪萍, 等. 2011—2018年浙江省台州市主要慢性病死亡水平及早死概率分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2022, 34(12): 1207-1213., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438059359908365, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=30, rfOrder=29, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=黄春妍, 陆艳, 王临池, 等. 1985—2020年苏州市居民糖尿病死亡率和早死概率时间趋势分析[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2022, 30(6): 476-480., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1320438059439600142, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=31, rfOrder=30, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=WHO. Global status report on noncommunicable diseases 2014[EB/OL]. (2014-10-26)[2025-01-03]. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241564854., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null)], funds=null, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1320438056545530346, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=

ASMR (per 100 000) and changing trends of four major chronic diseases among the residents in the chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention demonstration areas and the non-demonstration areas of Jinan, 2013–2023

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份示范区非示范区
CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病
2013259.32128.2327.827.89423.26247.78107.9638.825.54400.09
2014270.69132.9627.507.74438.88240.51117.4732.137.30397.41
2015257.66140.2728.888.20435.01239.84112.8837.059.45399.22
2016246.97127.2526.307.52408.04220.44106.7833.089.09369.38
2017247.96131.8125.449.20414.40234.38109.2835.218.90387.77
2018235.84124.6320.407.70388.56237.56113.7827.639.12388.09
2019230.18118.2520.646.42375.49222.36120.8024.747.99375.90
2020243.55114.3721.587.13386.64244.29114.4624.807.57391.13
2021229.47104.3517.936.46358.20240.28104.3820.147.13371.92
2022252.40104.4315.527.93380.29255.77 94.4024.938.19383.29
2023223.27 93.9614.397.43339.05233.19 85.9123.547.90350.54
AAPC/%–1.33 a–3.33 a –6.69 a–1.25–2.22 a0.09–1.81 a–5.54 a0.84–0.85 a
95%CI/%–2.21~–0.46–4.47~–2.18–8.29~–5.07–3.33~0.88–2.94~–1.50–0.89~1.08–3.56~–0.03–7.70~–3.34–2.54~4.33–1.49~–0.20
), ArticleFig(id=1320438056629416427, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2013—2023年济南市居民慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区四类重大慢性病标化死亡率(1/10万)及变化趋势

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份示范区非示范区
CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病
2013259.32128.2327.827.89423.26247.78107.9638.825.54400.09
2014270.69132.9627.507.74438.88240.51117.4732.137.30397.41
2015257.66140.2728.888.20435.01239.84112.8837.059.45399.22
2016246.97127.2526.307.52408.04220.44106.7833.089.09369.38
2017247.96131.8125.449.20414.40234.38109.2835.218.90387.77
2018235.84124.6320.407.70388.56237.56113.7827.639.12388.09
2019230.18118.2520.646.42375.49222.36120.8024.747.99375.90
2020243.55114.3721.587.13386.64244.29114.4624.807.57391.13
2021229.47104.3517.936.46358.20240.28104.3820.147.13371.92
2022252.40104.4315.527.93380.29255.77 94.4024.938.19383.29
2023223.27 93.9614.397.43339.05233.19 85.9123.547.90350.54
AAPC/%–1.33 a–3.33 a –6.69 a–1.25–2.22 a0.09–1.81 a–5.54 a0.84–0.85 a
95%CI/%–2.21~–0.46–4.47~–2.18–8.29~–5.07–3.33~0.88–2.94~–1.50–0.89~1.08–3.56~–0.03–7.70~–3.34–2.54~4.33–1.49~–0.20
), ArticleFig(id=1320438056730079724, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Premature death probabilities (%) and changing trends of four major chronic diseases among the residents in the chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention demonstration areas and the non-demonstration areas of Jinan, 2013–2023

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份示范区非示范区
CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病
20137.266.720.610.3414.328.355.550.660.2814.26
20147.717.200.660.3315.217.866.600.660.3814.84
20157.597.700.620.3615.547.696.200.630.4614.36
20167.576.750.590.3514.627.135.960.540.4213.51
20177.276.860.670.3714.537.626.100.560.4114.10
20186.616.540.500.3613.467.236.200.490.3813.74
20196.506.200.550.2513.006.516.380.410.3013.10
20206.915.910.480.3513.227.046.100.480.2613.34
20216.815.480.400.2912.527.065.530.350.2812.76
20226.735.400.360.3312.327.125.020.480.2612.43
20236.284.980.390.3411.616.824.590.440.3511.76
AAPC/%–1.70 a–3.60 a–5.81 a–0.94–2.56 a–1.66 a–2.07 a–4.97 a–2.83–1.91 a
95%CI/%–2.57~–0.82–4.80~–2.39–7.90~–3.68–3.38~1.56–3.36~–1.75–2.62~–0.70–3.94~–0.15–7.34~–2.54–6.82~1.32–2.49~–1.33
), ArticleFig(id=1320438056813965805, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

2013—2023年济南市居民慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区四类重大慢性病早死概率(%)及变化趋势

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份示范区非示范区
CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病
20137.266.720.610.3414.328.355.550.660.2814.26
20147.717.200.660.3315.217.866.600.660.3814.84
20157.597.700.620.3615.547.696.200.630.4614.36
20167.576.750.590.3514.627.135.960.540.4213.51
20177.276.860.670.3714.537.626.100.560.4114.10
20186.616.540.500.3613.467.236.200.490.3813.74
20196.506.200.550.2513.006.516.380.410.3013.10
20206.915.910.480.3513.227.046.100.480.2613.34
20216.815.480.400.2912.527.065.530.350.2812.76
20226.735.400.360.3312.327.125.020.480.2612.43
20236.284.980.390.3411.616.824.590.440.3511.76
AAPC/%–1.70 a–3.60 a–5.81 a–0.94–2.56 a–1.66 a–2.07 a–4.97 a–2.83–1.91 a
95%CI/%–2.57~–0.82–4.80~–2.39–7.90~–3.68–3.38~1.56–3.36~–1.75–2.62~–0.70–3.94~–0.15–7.34~–2.54–6.82~1.32–2.49~–1.33
), ArticleFig(id=1320438056906240494, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=EN, label=Tab.3, caption=

Standardized YLL rates (‰) and changing trends of four major chronic diseases among the residents in the chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention demonstration areas and the non-demonstration areas of Jinan, 2013–2023

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份示范区非示范区
CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病
201348.7632.384.751.9087.7949.8927.346.101.2884.61
201451.4432.914.501.7190.5647.0230.155.081.7383.98
201547.6935.174.761.7589.3846.2128.475.432.0882.19
201646.5231.464.371.7184.0742.9027.324.962.0177.20
201746.5533.064.281.9685.8545.1827.225.411.9579.76
201843.8030.753.461.7479.7444.8028.914.191.9979.89
201942.3328.663.341.4575.7841.4329.603.781.6676.46
202044.5727.743.481.5877.3744.8328.023.921.4978.25
202141.9524.772.911.4371.0644.4025.063.111.6474.21
202245.6724.932.351.6574.6046.6222.363.951.7274.65
202341.5722.192.271.7267.7543.6321.063.641.7470.06
AAPC/% –1.66 a –3.96 a–7.41 a–1.54 –2.73 a–0.75 –2.47 a–5.39 a0.02 –1.57 a
95%CI/%–2.50~–0.81–5.23~–2.68–9.12~–5.67–3.37~0.33–3.42~–2.04–1.71~0.23–4.21~–0.70–7.50~–3.23–3.21~3.36–2.06~–1.07
), ArticleFig(id=1320438056985932271, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

2013—2023年济南市居民慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区四类重大慢性病标化YLL率(‰)及变化趋势

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份示范区非示范区
CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病CVD恶性肿瘤CRDDM四大慢性病
201348.7632.384.751.9087.7949.8927.346.101.2884.61
201451.4432.914.501.7190.5647.0230.155.081.7383.98
201547.6935.174.761.7589.3846.2128.475.432.0882.19
201646.5231.464.371.7184.0742.9027.324.962.0177.20
201746.5533.064.281.9685.8545.1827.225.411.9579.76
201843.8030.753.461.7479.7444.8028.914.191.9979.89
201942.3328.663.341.4575.7841.4329.603.781.6676.46
202044.5727.743.481.5877.3744.8328.023.921.4978.25
202141.9524.772.911.4371.0644.4025.063.111.6474.21
202245.6724.932.351.6574.6046.6222.363.951.7274.65
202341.5722.192.271.7267.7543.6321.063.641.7470.06
AAPC/% –1.66 a –3.96 a–7.41 a–1.54 –2.73 a–0.75 –2.47 a–5.39 a0.02 –1.57 a
95%CI/%–2.50~–0.81–5.23~–2.68–9.12~–5.67–3.37~0.33–3.42~–2.04–1.71~0.23–4.21~–0.70–7.50~–3.23–3.21~3.36–2.06~–1.07
)], attaches=null, journal=Journal(id=1319372848273391765, delFlag=0, nameCn=中国公共卫生, nameEn=Chinese Journal of Public Health, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, issn=1001-0580, eissn=null, cn=21-1234/R, coden=null, periodic=0, language=CN, oaType=null, ccby=null, superviseOffice=null, ownerOffice=null, pubOffice=null, editorOffice=null, officeType=null, aims=null, clcCode=null, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=null, officeZip=null, officeEmail=null, officePhone=null, editDirector=null, officeDirector=null, officeDirectorPhone=null, officeStaffNum=null, officeEmpNum=null, coverPicUrl=/9FMdzA1g/v65YNirKDVig==, journalPrice=null, startedYear=null, abbrevIsoEn=Chinese Journal of Public Health, journalRemark=null, publicationField=null, createdTime=1792492599792, updatedTime=1792493958900, createdBy=18614031015, updatedBy=13701087609, firstLetterCn=Z, firstLetterEn=Z, subjectCode=Medical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, subjectName=null, subjectCodeEn=Medical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, subjectNameEn=null, picCn=/9FMdzA1g/v65YNirKDVig==, picEn=o7Pdo4L3Nh8JnSoifp1bTw==, jcr=null, cjcr=null, exts=[JournalExt(id=1319378548855517565, language=CN, name=中国公共卫生, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, managedBy=, sponsoredBy=, publishedBy=, editorOffice=, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=, officeZip=, editDirector=, officeDirector=null, officePhone=null, coverPicUrl=null, journalRemark=, submitArticleUrl=null, websiteUrl=, createdTime=1792493958915, updatedTime=1792493958915, createdBy=13701087609, updatedBy=13701087609, submissionGuidelinesUrl=, submissionAuthorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/authorLogOn.action, submissionEditorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/editorLogOn.action, submissionReviewUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/expertLogOn.action, submissionCeEditorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/editorInChiefLogOn.action, submissionAeEditorUrl=, option={"copyright":""}), JournalExt(id=1319378548901654910, language=EN, name=Chinese Journal of Public Health, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, managedBy=, sponsoredBy=, publishedBy=, editorOffice=, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=, officeZip=, editDirector=, officeDirector=null, officePhone=null, coverPicUrl=null, journalRemark=, submitArticleUrl=null, websiteUrl=, createdTime=1792493958926, updatedTime=1792493958926, createdBy=13701087609, updatedBy=13701087609, submissionGuidelinesUrl=, submissionAuthorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/authorLogOn.action, submissionEditorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/editorLogOn.action, submissionReviewUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/expertLogOn.action, submissionCeEditorUrl=http://manu32.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_zgggws/editorInChiefLogOn.action, submissionAeEditorUrl=, option={"copyright":""})], databaseList=null, tenantJournalId=1319373219989389464, websiteList=[Website(id=1319376331826119583, webName=null, webTitle=null, webDomain=null, webCopyrigh=null, webIpcNo=null, seoTitle=null, seoKeywords=null, seoDescription=null, tenantJournalId=null, journalId=1319373219989389464, journalNameCn=null, journalNameEn=null, grayFlag=null, tenantId=1146029695717560320, platformId=null, journalGroupId=null, journalGroupNameCn=null, journalGroupNameEn=null, type=1, domain=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN, language=CN, createTime=1792493430334, createBy=18614031015, updateTime=1792493702095, updateBy=18614031015, name=中国公共卫生-中文, tplId=1146099689490845704, title=中国公共卫生, delFlag=0, indexPage=/home, props=[WebsiteProps(id=1319377601878152017, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=articleTextType, value=kx, createTime=1792493733138, updateTime=1792493733138, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601857180494, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=banner, value=null, createTime=1792493733133, updateTime=1792493733133, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601907512148, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=grayFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493733145, updateTime=1792493733145, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601844597581, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=logo, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN/file/pic?fileId=R1bpcFoY1/NiafORTvYzaA==, createTime=1792493733130, updateTime=1792493733130, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601924289366, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=minRunFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493733149, updateTime=1792493733149, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601869763408, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=picServerUrl, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN/file/pic, createTime=1792493733136, updateTime=1792493733136, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601915900757, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=silenceFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493733147, updateTime=1792493733147, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601861374799, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=staticResourcePath, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cast_kjdb_cn_619/, createTime=1792493733134, updateTime=1792493733134, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601886540626, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=themeColor, value=null, createTime=1792493733140, updateTime=1792493733140, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377601899123539, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331826119583, code=themeStyle, value=null, createTime=1792493733143, updateTime=1792493733143, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015)]), Website(id=1319376331910005684, webName=null, webTitle=null, webDomain=null, webCopyrigh=null, webIpcNo=null, seoTitle=null, seoKeywords=null, seoDescription=null, tenantJournalId=null, journalId=1319373219989389464, journalNameCn=null, journalNameEn=null, grayFlag=null, tenantId=1146029695717560320, platformId=null, journalGroupId=null, journalGroupNameCn=null, journalGroupNameEn=null, type=1, domain=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/EN, language=EN, createTime=1792493430354, createBy=18614031015, updateTime=1792493697553, updateBy=18614031015, name=中国公共卫生-英文, tplId=1146101810881728533, title=Chinese Journal of Public Health, delFlag=0, indexPage=/home, props=[WebsiteProps(id=1319377562602689343, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=articleTextType, value=kx, createTime=1792493723774, updateTime=1792493723774, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562581717820, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=banner, value=null, createTime=1792493723769, updateTime=1792493723769, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562636243778, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=grayFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493723782, updateTime=1792493723782, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562569134907, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=logo, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/EN/file/pic?fileId=R1bpcFoY1/NiafORTvYzaA==, createTime=1792493723766, updateTime=1792493723766, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562648826692, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=minRunFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493723785, updateTime=1792493723785, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562594300734, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=picServerUrl, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/EN/file/pic, createTime=1792493723772, updateTime=1792493723772, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562640438083, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=silenceFlag, value=0, createTime=1792493723783, updateTime=1792493723783, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562590106429, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=staticResourcePath, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cast_kjdb_en_623/, createTime=1792493723771, updateTime=1792493723771, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562615272256, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=themeColor, value=null, createTime=1792493723777, updateTime=1792493723777, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1319377562623660865, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1319376331910005684, code=themeStyle, value=null, createTime=1792493723779, updateTime=1792493723779, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015)])], journalTitle=中国公共卫生, weixinUrl=null, journalUrl=https://www.zgggws.com/, iacademicId=null, status=1, seqNo=null, journalTitleEn=Chinese Journal of Public Health, journalPhotoCn=/9FMdzA1g/v65YNirKDVig==, journalPhotoEn=o7Pdo4L3Nh8JnSoifp1bTw==, journalFirstLetter=Z, journalRecommend=null, journalNew=null, journalCollection=null, jcrJf=null, cjcrJf=null, jcrJfStr=null, cjcrJfStr=null, submissionFirstDecision=null, sciSubjectClassification=null, casSubjectClassification=null, citeScore=null, totalCitationFrequency=null, icpCode=null, psCode=null, advertisingLicenseCode=null, copyrightInformation=null, country=null, option=, provinceCode=null, provinceName=null, collectFlag=false, interPubPlatform=, interPubPlatformUrl=null), detailUrlCn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN/10.11847/zgggws1146924, detailUrlEn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/EN/10.11847/zgggws1146924, pdfUrlCn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN/PDF/10.11847/zgggws1146924, pdfUrlEn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/EN/PDF/10.11847/zgggws1146924, aliStartDate=0, aliEndDate=0, collectionFlag=false, citedCount=null, citedUrl=null, previewStatus=0, delFlag=0, hasFullText=1, orderTime=1773072000000, fullTextJson=null, articleText=null, reference=null)
收藏切换
2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区居民重大慢性病早死概率和疾病负担及其变化趋势比较
收藏切换
PDF下载
王莹 , 马霞 , 王庆昌 , 王楠 , 王子瑜 , 蔡雷琦 , 亓爱玲 , 张军 *, *
中国公共卫生 | 专题报道——慢性病预防与控制 2026,42(3): 271-276
收起
收藏切换
中国公共卫生 |专题报道——慢性病预防与控制 2026 , 42 (3) : 271 -276
2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区居民重大慢性病早死概率和疾病负担及其变化趋势比较
全屏
[Author(id=1320438052158288307, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438052388975029, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438052158288307, language=EN, stringName=Ying WANG, firstName=Ying, middleName=null, lastName=WANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438052460278198, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438052158288307, language=CN, stringName=王莹, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio={"content":"

王莹(1978—),副主任技师,硕士,研究方向:慢性病预防与控制

"}, bioImg=null, bioContent=

王莹(1978—),副主任技师,硕士,研究方向:慢性病预防与控制

, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438052812599736, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=1, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438052892291514, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438052812599736, language=EN, stringName=Xia MA, firstName=Xia, middleName=null, lastName=MA, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438053232030139, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438052812599736, language=CN, stringName=马霞, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438053311721917, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=2, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438053647266239, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438053311721917, language=EN, stringName=Qingchang WANG, firstName=Qingchang, middleName=null, lastName=WANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438053764706752, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438053311721917, language=CN, stringName=王庆昌, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438053928284610, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=3, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054033142212, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438053928284610, language=EN, stringName=Nan WANG, firstName=Nan, middleName=null, lastName=WANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054125416901, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438053928284610, language=CN, stringName=王楠, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438054209302983, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=4, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054297383369, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054209302983, language=EN, stringName=Ziyu WANG, firstName=Ziyu, middleName=null, lastName=WANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054377075146, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054209302983, language=CN, stringName=王子瑜, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438054460961228, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=5, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054549041614, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054460961228, language=EN, stringName=Leiqi CAI, firstName=Leiqi, middleName=null, lastName=CAI, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054624539087, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054460961228, language=CN, stringName=蔡雷琦, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438054721008081, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=6, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054804894163, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054721008081, language=EN, stringName=Ailing QI, firstName=Ailing, middleName=null, lastName=QI, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438054897168852, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054721008081, language=CN, stringName=亓爱玲, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])]), Author(id=1320438054981054934, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, orderNo=7, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=cdczhangjun@163.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=1, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320438055073329624, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054981054934, language=EN, stringName=Jun ZHANG, firstName=Jun, middleName=null, lastName=ZHANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320438055161410009, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, authorId=1320438054981054934, language=CN, stringName=张军, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=*, *, address=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320438052070207919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052078596528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320438052091179441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320438050375709098, companyId=1320438052070207919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021)])])]
王莹, 马霞, 王庆昌, 王楠, 王子瑜, 蔡雷琦, 亓爱玲, 张军*, *
作者信息
  • 济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021
通讯作者:
张军,E-mail:
作者简介:

王莹(1978—),副主任技师,硕士,研究方向:慢性病预防与控制

Comparison of the premature death probability and disease burden of major chronic diseases along with their changing trends between residents in chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention demonstration areas and non-demonstration areas in Jinan from 2013 to 2023
Ying WANG, Xia MA, Qingchang WANG, Nan WANG, Ziyu WANG, Leiqi CAI, Ailing QI, Jun ZHANG
Affiliations
  • Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China
  • Corresponding Author:
    ZHANG Jun, E-mail:
出版时间: 2026-03-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146924
文章导航
收藏切换
目的

比较山东省济南市慢性病综合防控示范区(示范区)与非示范区居民重大慢性病早死概率和疾病负担及其变化趋势,为提升居民健康水平提供参考。

方法

收集中国疾病预防控制中心“人口死亡信息登记管理系统”中济南市3个示范区和3个非示范区2013—2023年居民心脑血管疾病(CVD)、恶性肿瘤、慢性呼吸系统疾病(CRD)和糖尿病(DM)四类重大慢性病死亡数据,比较示范区与非示范区居民四类重大慢性病标化死亡率、早死概率和标化过早死亡寿命损失年(YLL)率,并采用年均变化百分比(AAPC)比较其变化趋势。

结果

济南市示范区居民CVD、恶性肿瘤、四大慢性病年均标化死亡率和标化YLL率均高于非示范区,CRD、DM年均标化死亡率和标化YLL率均低于非示范区,CVD(AAPC= –1.33%,95%CI= –2.21%~–0.46%)、恶性肿瘤(AAPC= –3.33%,95%CI= –4.47%~–2.18%)、CRD(AAPC= –6.69%,95%CI= –8.29%~–5.07%)、四大慢性病(AAPC= –2.22%,95%CI= –2.94%~–1.50%)标化死亡率以及CVD(AAPC= –1.66%,95%CI= –2.50%~–0.81%)、恶性肿瘤(AAPC= –3.96%,95%CI= –5.23%~–2.68%)、CRD(AAPC= –7.41%,95%CI= –9.12%~–5.67%)、四大慢性病(AAPC= –2.73%,95%CI= –3.42%~–2.04%)标化YLL率均呈下降趋势且降幅大于非示范区;示范区居民恶性肿瘤和四大慢性病年均早死概率均高于非示范区,CVD、CRD和DM年均早死概率均低于非示范区,CVD(AAPC= –1.70%,95%CI= –2.57%~–0.82%)、恶性肿瘤(AAPC= –3.60%,95%CI= –4.80%~–2.39%)、CRD(AAPC= –5.81%,95%CI= –7.90%~–3.68%)和四大慢性病(AAPC= –2.56%,95%CI= –3.36%~–1.75%)早死概率均呈下降趋势,且降幅大于非示范区。

结论

济南市示范区建设可降低CVD、恶性肿瘤和CRD早死负担,30~69岁人群获益明显,但DM防控仍需加强。

重大慢性病  /  早死概率  /  疾病负担  /  变化趋势  /  慢性病综合防控  /  示范区  /  非示范区  /  济南市
Objective

To compare the premature death probability and disease burden of major chronic diseases along with their changing trends among residents in chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention demonstration areas (demonstration areas) and non-demonstration areas in Jinan city, thus providing a basis for improving the residents′ health.

Methods

Using mortality data from three demonstration areas and three non-demonstration areas in Jinan, 2013 – 2023, we compared and analyzed age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), premature mortality probability, and standardized years of life lost (YLL) rates of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), malignant tumors, chronic respiratory diseases (CRD), and diabetes mellitus (DM). The changing trends were assessed based on the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

Results

The demonstration areas had higher average ASMR and standardized YLL rates of CVD, malignant tumors, and the four major chronic diseases and lower average ASMR and standardized YLL rates of CRD and DM than the non-demonstration areas. Significant declining trends were observed for the ASMR of CVD (AAPC = –1.33%, 95%CI: –2.21% to –0.46%), malignant tumors (AAPC = –3.33%, 95%CI: –4.47% to –2.18%), CRD (AAPC = –6.69%, 95%CI: –8.29% to –5.07%), and the four major chronic diseases (AAPC = –2.22%, 95%CI: –2.94% to –1.50%) as well as the standardized YLL rates of CVD (AAPC = –1.66%, 95%CI: –2.50% to –0.81%), malignant tumors (AAPC = –3.96%, 95%CI: –5.23% to –2.68%), CRD (AAPC = –7.41%, 95%CI: –9.12% to –5.67%), and the four major chronic diseases (AAPC = –2.73%, 95%CI: –3.42% to –2.04%), with greater declines in the demonstration areas. The demonstration areas had higher average annual premature death probabilities of malignant tumors and the four major chronic diseases and lower average annual premature death probabilities of CVD, CRD, and DM than the non-demonstration areas. Reductions in premature death probability were observed for CVD (AAPC = –1.70%, 95%CI: –2.57% to –0.82%), malignant tumors (AAPC = –3.60%, 95%CI: –4.80% to –2.39%), CRD (AAPC = –5.81%, 95%CI: –7.90% to –3.68%), and the four major chronic diseases (AAPC = –2.56%, 95%CI: –3.36% to –1.75%), with greater declines in the demonstration areas.

Conclusions

The establishment of demonstration areas in Jinan has significantly reduced premature death burden from CVD, malignant tumors, and CRD. These interventions have shown pronounced benefits for the people aged 30–69. Nevertheless, the prevention and control of DM still need to be strengthened.

major chronic diseases  /  premature death probability  /  disease burden  /  changing trend  /  chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention  /  demonstration areas  /  non-demonstration areas  /  Jinan city
王莹, 马霞, 王庆昌, 王楠, 王子瑜, 蔡雷琦, 亓爱玲, 张军. 2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区居民重大慢性病早死概率和疾病负担及其变化趋势比较. 中国公共卫生, 2026 , 42 (3) : 271 -276 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146924
Ying WANG, Xia MA, Qingchang WANG, Nan WANG, Ziyu WANG, Leiqi CAI, Ailing QI, Jun ZHANG. Comparison of the premature death probability and disease burden of major chronic diseases along with their changing trends between residents in chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention demonstration areas and non-demonstration areas in Jinan from 2013 to 2023[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2026 , 42 (3) : 271 -276 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146924
随着城镇化的推进、老龄化社会的到来,慢性非传染性疾病(简称“慢性病”)已成为人们死亡和伤残的主要原因,而慢性病综合防控示范区则是中国推动慢性病防控工作的重要措施[1]。研究表明,我国慢性病前4位死因分别为心脑血管疾病(cardiovascular disease, CVD)、恶性肿瘤、慢性呼吸系统疾病(chronic respiratory disease, CRD)和糖尿病(diabetes mellitus, DM),这四类疾病也被列为重大慢性病进行防控[2]。世界卫生组织采用主要慢性病早死概率作为评估慢性病防控成效的关键指标,该指标排除了人口年龄结构的干扰,适用于跨时期、跨地域的横向对比分析[3]。《世界卫生统计报告2024》中指出,2019年全球因重大慢性病早死概率较2000年约降低20%[4];《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》提出,实施慢性病综合防控战略加强国家慢性病综合防控示范区建设,到2030年重大慢性病早死概率较2015年可降低30%[5];《“健康山东2030”规划纲要》提出,对慢性病综合防控示范区实行动态管理并建立退出机制,在全省建成100个国家及省级示范区[6],到2030年重大慢性病早死概率将降至12.59%[7]。济南市位于华东地区,是山东省省会,副省级城市,人口951余万,包括12个区县。该地区2010年启动示范区建设工作,其中槐荫区[8]、市中区[9]和章丘区[10]分别于2011年、2013年和2014年建成示范区,是济南市最早的3个示范区。为比较济南市慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区居民重大慢性病的早死概率及疾病负担,为评估慢性病综合防控示范区在重大慢性病防控中的效果,提升居民健康水平和生活质量提供参考依据,本研究收集中国疾病预防控制中心“人口死亡信息登记管理系统”中济南市槐荫区、市中区、章丘区3个慢性病综合防控示范区和天桥区、长清区、商河县3个非示范区2013—2023年居民CVD、恶性肿瘤、CRD、DM四类重大慢性病死亡相关数据,比较示范区与非示范区居民四类重大慢性病标化死亡率、早死概率、标化过早死亡寿命损失年(years of life lost, YLL)率,并采用年均变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)比较其变化趋势的差异。结果报告如下。
经国家、山东省逐级授权,通过中国疾病预防控制中心“人口死亡信息登记管理系统”,收集济南市槐荫区、市中区、章丘区3个在2014年以前建成的慢性病综合防控示范区和天桥区、长清区、商河县3个非示范区2013年1月1日—2023年12月31日居民CVD、恶性肿瘤、CRD、DM四类重大慢性病死亡相关数据。人口数据来自济南市公安部门。所有死亡个案均按照《疾病和有关健康问题的国际统计分类(第十次修订本)》[11]确定根本死因及疾病分类编码,四类重大慢性病(简称“四大慢性病”)编码分别为:CVD(I00~I99)、恶性肿瘤(C00~C97)、CRD(J30~J98)和DM(E10~E14)。本研究经济南市疾病预防控制中心医学伦理委员会审查批准(批号为:济疾伦批[2023]039号)。
济南市于2010年启动全人群死因登记报告工作,市、区两级疾控机构每年均对辖区死因报告单位进行督导和业务培训,定期开展人群死亡漏报调查,定期与公安、民政、妇幼等部门交换死亡数据,并及时核实补报。2013—2023年全市死因填报准确率和报告及时率均≥95%,死因不明比例均≤5%。
采用Excel 2010对数据进行整理、分析,计算标化死亡率 、早死概率和标化YLL 率。标化死亡率利用2010年全国人口普查数据[12]进行计算;早死概率指活到30岁但不满70岁的死亡概率[13],根据世界卫生组织推荐的寿命表法[14]计算:
$早死概率(69q30)=1-{{\displaystyle\Pi }}_{x=30}^{69}(1-{}_5q_x)。 $
其中,69q30表示在30岁存活的人中69岁之前死亡的概率;∏为连乘符号,∏69(1–5qx)表示从30岁到69岁每5年都存活的联合概率;5qx=(5Mx×5)/(1+5Mx×2.5),5Mx为某年龄组死亡率,5Mx =某年龄组死亡人数/某年龄组人口数。采用标化YLL率分析疾病负担,根据2019年全球疾病负担提供的标准寿命表[15]计算。使用Joinpoint 4.9.0.0统计软件计算AAPC及其95%CI,对CVD、恶性肿瘤、CRD、DM四类重大慢性病标化死亡率、早死概率和标化YLL率的变化趋势进行描述。检验水准为双侧检验α=0.05。
2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区居民CVD、恶性肿瘤和四大慢性病的年均标化死亡率分别为244.11/10万、118.96/10万和392.49/10万,均高于非示范区居民的237.72/10万、107.54/10万和382.09/10万,CRD和DM的年均标化死亡率分别为21.84/10万和7.58/10万,均低于非示范区居民的27.84/10万和8.00/10万;2013—2023年示范区居民CVD、恶性肿瘤、CRD、四大慢性病和非示范区居民恶性肿瘤、CRD、四大慢性病的标化死亡率均呈下降趋势(均P<0.05),示范区居民下降幅度均高于非示范区居民。
2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区居民恶性肿瘤和四大慢性病的年均早死概率分别为6.29%和13.62%,均高于非示范区居民的5.83%和13.43%,CVD、CRD和DM的年均早死概率分别为6.98%、0.51%和0.33%,均低于非示范区居民的7.29%、0.52%和0.34%;2013—2023年示范区和非示范区居民CVD、恶性肿瘤、CRD、四大慢性病均呈下降趋势(均P<0.05),示范区居民下降幅度均高于非示范区居民。
2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区居民CVD、恶性肿瘤和四大慢性病的年均标化YLL率分别为45.32‰、29.23‰和79.83‰,均高于非示范区居民的45.08‰、26.77‰和78.04‰,CRD和DM的年均标化YLL率分别为3.59‰和1.69‰,均低于非示范区居民的4.44‰和1.74‰;2013—2023年示范区居民CVD、恶性肿瘤、CRD、四大慢性病和非示范区居民恶性肿瘤、CRD、四大慢性病的标化YLL率均呈下降趋势(均P<0.05),示范区居民下降幅度均高于非示范区居民。
研究表明,标化死亡率、早死概率和标化YLL率的基本原理都是对人口年龄构成进行标化调整,能够有效消除人口构成和时空异质性的影响,可以共同反映四类重大慢性病早死负担的流行趋势[16]。本研究结果显示,2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区和非示范区居民的四大慢性病标化死亡率、早死概率和标化YLL率均呈下降趋势,且示范区居民下降幅度均高于非示范区居民。这一差异可能与示范区推行的综合性防控策略有关。济南市通过政策保障、模式创新、环境优化、特色探索和科学评估构建了覆盖全人群、全生命周期的慢性病综合防控体系,具体措施包括:强化政策保障,完善组织体系;创新防控模式,推进“健康+”融合;优化支持性环境,倡导健康生活方式;探索特色模式,形成可推广经验;加强监测评估,推动长效管理[17]。这些举措不仅完善了制度设计,更通过社会动员形成了“政府—专业机构—群众”三级防控网络,为示范区成效提供了结构性支撑。值得注意的是,示范区四大慢性病早死概率的年均下降速度高于标化死亡率,且大于非示范区早死概率下降速度,这一现象与重庆市[18]和广东省广州市[19]等地的研究结论一致。提示示范区建设有助于更快地降低30~69岁劳动力人口的死亡概率,减少劳动力人口的过早死亡。
本研究结果显示,2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区和非示范区居民恶性肿瘤和CRD的标化死亡率、早死概率和标化YLL率均呈下降趋势,且示范区居民的下降幅度更大,这得益于济南市近年来在示范区强化专业防控、社会力量等对慢性病管理的支撑,如槐荫区充分利用辖区建有全国排名前5名的山东省肿瘤医院优势,实施“癌症筛查和早诊早治能力提升工程”;章丘区开展贫困慢性病患者免费用药工作,将慢性阻塞性肺病等8种慢性病确定为免费送药目录,提高了贫困居民的健康水平,这些措施有效降低了恶性肿瘤和CRD对居民健康的影响。值得关注的是,示范区居民恶性肿瘤的标化死亡率、早死概率和标化YLL率均高于非示范区居民,重庆市的研究结果亦发现示范区和非示范区居民恶性肿瘤早死概率差异无统计学意义[20]。研究表明,恶性肿瘤的防控是一项长期而艰巨的系统性工程,在短期内很难显现成效[21]。针对肿瘤防控的持久性特征,建议各示范区从三方面强化工作:一是进一步规范肿瘤监测体系,二是不断拓展高危人群早筛早诊项目的覆盖范围,三是通过多维度干预实现发病趋势的有效控制。
本研究中,2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区居民CVD标化死亡率、早死概率和标化YLL率均呈下降趋势,且下降幅度均大于非示范区居民,提示示范区建设在CVD防控方面已初见成效。示范区居民CVD平均标化死亡率高于非示范区,但平均早死概率低于非示范区且下降幅度更大,进一步验证了示范区30~69岁人群从示范区建设中获益更大。济南市示范区从“防、筛、治、管”全方位持续扎实开展“健康济南”CVD防治专项行动,具体措施为:将CVD筛查纳入地方公共卫生项目,进一步扩大受益范围;发布脑卒中、胸痛“急救地图”,缩短救治时间,优化急救体系;提高居民疾病认知,推动防治关口前移,强化健康宣教等。值得注意的是,济南市CVD早死概率居四大慢性病之首,与山东省临沂市[22]、河南省[23]、陕西省[24]和江西省[25]等地区的研究结果一致,与重庆市[18]、山东省青岛市[26]、山东省泰安市[27]和广东省深圳市[28]等恶性肿瘤早死概率较高的地区形成鲜明对比。提示济南市需重点关注CVD防控,加强系统性干预,进一步缩小示范区与非示范区居民之间的差异,优化防控策略的均衡性和可持续性。
本研究结果还显示,2013—2023年济南市慢性病综合防控示范区居民DM标化死亡率、早死概率和标化YLL率均低于非示范区居民,示范区建设对DM的防控效果逐渐显现。济南市通过以下措施强化DM管理:一是扩大高危人群监测,将DM前期人群纳入国家基本公共卫生服务规范化管理;二是优化诊疗模式,在二级及以上公立医疗机构推行代谢性疾病标准化健康管理,整合药物治疗、运动处方、营养干预及并发症筛查等一站式服务。然而,尽管现有措施取得一定效果,纵向数据仍显示相关指标尚未形成下降趋势,与国内多项研究结果一致[18-19,29-30]。例如,江苏省苏州市基于36年的数据分析显示,DM早死概率仍呈上升趋势[30],凸显当前DM防控形势依然严峻。世界卫生组织强调,早期识别高危人群并实施精准干预是DM防控的核心[31],因此建议从三方面优化工作:首先,强化早期筛查,全面推广≥35岁就诊人群DM及高危人群筛查,提高疾病发现率;其次,深化综合干预,加强生活方式干预,提升患者自我管理能力;最后,优化健康管理,依托智能化监测手段提高血糖控制率和规范管理率,降低DM相关早死风险。这些措施将推动防控模式向“健康管理为中心”转变,有效遏制DM疾病负担的增长。
综上所述,济南市慢性病综合防控示范区建设在慢性病防控方面取得了显著成效,尤其在降低CVD、恶性肿瘤和CRD的早死负担方面表现突出,30~69岁人群获益明显,但DM的防控仍需加强。基于现有成果和问题,建议采取以下措施:首先,重点加强DM三级预防体系建设,完善筛查—干预—管理全流程服务;其次,建立覆盖全生命周期的防控策略,特别关注青少年健康促进和老年人群健康管理;最后,通过区域协作和经验共享,探索符合本地实际的慢性病防控模式,为济南市慢性病综合防控示范市建设提供实践基础。

参考文献 引证文献
排序方式:
1
中华人民共和国中央人民政府. 卫生部办公厅关于印发《慢性非传染性疾病综合防控示范区管理办法》的通知[EB/OL]. (2011-03-24)[2024-12-24].https://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2011-03/24/content_1830841.htm.
2
李交研, 韩慧楠, 王晓宇, 等. 重大疾病群防群控共性问题与组织行为[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2024, 40(9): 1144-1148.
3
廖爱梅, 方菁, 肖传浩, 等. 云南省四类慢性病早死概率实现2030年可持续发展目标预测分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2020, 36(10): 1443-1446.
4
World Health Organization. World health statistics 2024: monitoring health for the SDGs, sustainable development goals[EB/OL]. (2024-05-21)[2025-04-21].https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240094703.
5
中华人民共和国中央人民政府. 中共中央 国务院印发《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》[EB/OL]. (2016-10-25)[2024-12-21]. https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-10/25/content_5124174.htm
6
山东省人民政府. 山东省人民政府关于贯彻健康中国行动推进健康山东建设的实施意见[EB/OL]. (2019-11-27)[2025-04-21]. http://www.shandong.gov.cn/art/2019/11/27/art_2259_63540.html.
7
山东省卫生健康委员会. 省委、省政府印发《“健康山东2030”规划纲要》[EB/OL]. (2018-02-12)[2025-04-21]. http://wsjkw.shandong.gov.cn/zwgk/ghjh/201802/t20180212_3493228.html.
8
中华人民共和国中央人民政府. 卫生部办公厅关于公布2011年度国家慢性病综合防控示范区考评结果的通知[EB/OL]. (2011-12-08)[2025-05-08].https://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2011-12/14/content_2020002.htm.
9
山东省卫生厅. 山东省卫生厅关于命名济南市市中区等9个县(市、区)为山东省慢性非传染性疾病综合防控示范县(市、区)的通报[Z]. 鲁卫疾控发〔2013〕8号, 2013-12-26.
10
国家卫生计生委办公厅. 国家卫生计生委办公厅关于公布第三批国家慢性病综合防控示范区审核结果的通知[EB/OL]. (2014-12-26)[2025-05-08].https://wsjkw.sc.gov.cn/scwsjkw/csgz2/2014/12/29/ea51877ee8e34df0821397cdd7ed3c3f.shtml.
11
董景五, 北京协和医院世界卫生组织国际分类家族合作中心. 疾病和有关健康问题的国际统计分类–第三卷–字母顺序索引[M]. 2版. 北京: 人民卫生出版社, 2008.
12
国务院人口普查办公室, 国家统计局人口和就业统计司. 中国2010年人口普查资料[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2012.
13
胡雨佳, 尹春, 李靖, 等. 金昌队列随访人群2011—2020年循环系统疾病死亡率及早死概率变化趋势分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2022, 38(10): 1305-1309.
14
中国健康管理协会. 中国国民健康状况指标(T/CHAA 006—2019)[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(3): 239-260.
15
Vos T, Lim S S, Abbafati C, et al. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019[J]. The Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1204-1222.
16
陈三仟, 熊炜, 万信, 等. 2012—2021年江西省南昌市新建区4类慢性病早死负担分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(1): 101-105.
17
赵倩. 济南慢性病示范区创建成效初显[N/OL]. (2024-04-25)[2025-04-23].https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1797282138327744419&wfr=spider&for=pc.
18
丁贤彬, 毛德强, 唐文革, 等. 重庆市慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区主要慢性病早死概率趋势变化分析[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2018, 26(10): 725-729.
19
秦发举, 陈远源, 黄婷苑, 等. 广州市慢性病综合防控示范区与非示范区主要慢性病早死概率趋势分析[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2022, 30(6): 473-476.
20
丁贤彬, 唐文革, 毛德强, 等. 慢性病综合防控示范区建设对主要慢性病早死概率的影响[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2018, 26(1): 1-4.
21
杨璧榕, 余龙涛, 李震萍, 等. 2012—2019年云南省肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤的发病与死亡趋势分析[J]. 中国肿瘤, 2024, 33(2): 125-133.
22
肖笑笑. 2013—2021年临沂市四类主要慢性病早死概率及趋势分析[J]. 公共卫生与预防医学, 2024, 35(1): 116-120.
23
李少芳, 轩水丽, 邢天放, 等. 2015—2020年河南省四类慢性病早死概率及“健康中国2030”指标达标分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(7): 895-900.
24
邱琳, 王维华, 刘蓉, 等. 2015—2020年陕西省主要慢性病早死概率[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2022, 26(3): 337-342.
25
刘杰, 颜玮, 刘明, 等. 江西省2014—2018年死因监测地区主要慢性病早死概率分析[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2020, 37(2): 253-255.
26
李斐斐, 赵园园, 田小草, 等. 2015—2019年青岛市主要慢性病死亡情况及早死概率分析[J]. 中国公共卫生管理, 2022, 38(5): 663-666.
27
杜卫萍, 周媛, 李心伟, 等. 2014—2019年山东省泰安市4种慢性病早死概率及变化趋势研究[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(4): 537-542.
28
廖佳, 魏双翼, 刘刚. 2014—2020年深圳市户籍居民主要慢性病过早死亡情况及变化趋势研究[J]. 中国全科医学, 2022, 25(32): 4085-4090.
29
乔冬菊, 王良友, 娄雪萍, 等. 2011—2018年浙江省台州市主要慢性病死亡水平及早死概率分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2022, 34(12): 1207-1213.
30
黄春妍, 陆艳, 王临池, 等. 1985—2020年苏州市居民糖尿病死亡率和早死概率时间趋势分析[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2022, 30(6): 476-480.
31
WHO. Global status report on noncommunicable diseases 2014[EB/OL]. (2014-10-26)[2025-01-03]. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241564854.
2026年第42卷第3期
PDF下载
103
42
引用本文
BibTeX
文章信息
doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146924
  • 接收时间:2025-01-11
  • 首发时间:2026-10-23
  • 出版时间:2026-03-10
补充材料
相关文章
文章信息
作者
出版历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-01-11
  • 修回日期:2025-05-10
  • 录用日期:2025-08-06
基金
作者信息
    济南市疾病预防控制中心,济南 250021

通讯作者:

张军,E-mail:
参考文献
分享链接
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgggws/CN/10.11847/zgggws1146924
分享至
全文二维码

扫描看全文

引用本文
BibTeX
本文的引用情况
2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
关闭全屏