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Article(id=1320442629301579831, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320442616123081022, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11847/zgggws1146509, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1732464000000, receivedDateStr=2024-11-25, revisedDate=1754928000000, revisedDateStr=2025-08-12, acceptedDate=1760630400000, acceptedDateStr=2025-10-17, onlineDate=1792747655463, onlineDateStr=2026-10-23, pubDate=1767974400000, pubDateStr=2026-01-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792747655463, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792747655463, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792747655463, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1320442616123081022, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, year='2026', volume='42', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='128', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1767974400000', pubDateStr='2026-01-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792747652321, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792748136930, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1320444648791851086, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320442616123081022, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1320444648791851087, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, issueId=1320442616123081022, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=13, endPage=17, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1320442629519683640, articleId=1320442629301579831, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=EN, title=Epidemiological features of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2023: prediction based on time series model, columnId=1320442616970330431, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Public Health, columnName=Special Report—Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To understand the epidemic dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, thus providing a scientific basis for early warning, prediction, and prevention and control of this disease.

Methods

On the basis of the case data of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2023 in the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, descriptive analysis was performed to reveal the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis, and the ARIMA model was adopted to predict the epidemic trend of this disease.

Results

From 2017 to 2023, the annual reported incidences of human brucellosis cases in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were 30.63/100 000, 39.92/100 000, 56.84/100 000, 64.77/100 000, 91.03/100 000, 79.57/100 000, and 70.34/100 000, respectively. The incidence rose from 2017 to 2021 and declined from 2022 to 2023 (χ2 = 7 843.95, P < 0.001). The epidemic had obvious seasonality (Z = 5 561.78, P < 0.01). The cases showed a male: female ratio of 2.20:1, with farmers accounting for 78.4%. The proportion of cases with a time interval of 0 to 15 days between onset and diagnosis increased year by year (χ2 = 419.38, P < 0.001). The reported cases in the acute phase and subacute phase accounted for 80.21% and 16.27%, respectively. The proportion of reported cases transitioning from acute and subacute phases to chronic phase decreased year by year (χ2 = 581.18, P < 0.01). The ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model established with the minimum AIC value of 224.65 was the optimal, demonstrating satisfactory fitting effect in prediction.

Conclusions

The reported incidence of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region shows an overall upward trend from 2017 to 2021 and a decreasing trend from 2022 to 2024.

, authors=Yongming GAO1, Yingxin PEI2, Xiaoli WANG3, Huhu WANG1, Ying WANG1, Li NIE4, Ruiping YU1, authorsList=Yongming GAO, Yingxin PEI, Xiaoli WANG, Huhu WANG, Ying WANG, Li NIE, Ruiping YU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Ruiping YU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
YU Ruiping, E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2026 Chinese Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1320442633567187019, articleId=1320442629301579831, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, language=CN, title=2017—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布鲁氏菌病流行病学特征分析：基于时间序列模型预测, columnId=1320442617125519681, journalTitle=中国公共卫生, columnName=专题报道——传染病预防与控制, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

了解内蒙古自治区人间布鲁氏菌病（简称“布病”）疫情动态，掌握流行特征，为预警预测及制定防控措施提供科学依据。

方法

采用2017—2023年中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集内蒙古自治区人间布病个案数据，应用描述性分析方法分析人间布病疫情流行特征，应用时间序列模型（ARIMA）预测布病流行趋势。

结果

2017—2023年，内蒙古自治区人间布病病例各年度报告发病率分别为30.63/10万、39.92/10万、56.84/10万、64.77/10万、91.03/10万、79.57/10万和70.34/10万。2017—2021年呈上升趋势，2022—2023年有所下降，趋势χ2检验差异有统计学意义（χ2=7 843.95，P<0.001）；发病具有明显季节性（Z=5 561.78，P<0.01）；男女性别比为2.20:1，农民占78.4%；发病到诊断时间间隔为0～15 d的病例占比呈逐年上升趋势，差异有统计学意义（χ2=419.38，P<0.001）；报告病例中急性期病例占80.21%、亚急性期病例占16.27%；报告病例由急性期和亚急性期转为慢性期比例逐年下降，差异有统计学意义（χ2=581.18，P<0.01）。选择赤池信息准则（akaike information criterion, AIC）值最小224.65建立模型ARIMA（2，1，1）（0，1，1）12为最优模型，预测拟合效果较理想。

结论

2017—2021年内蒙古自治区人间布病报告发病率总体呈上升趋势，2022—2024年呈下降趋势。

, authors=高永明1, 裴迎新2, 王小莉3, 王虎虎1, 王莹1, 聂莉4, 尉瑞平1, *, *, authorsList=高永明, 裴迎新, 王小莉, 王虎虎, 王莹, 聂莉, 尉瑞平, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=尉瑞平, authorNote=

高永明（1981—），主任医师，硕士，研究方向：传染病防制

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尉瑞平，E-mail：
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figureFileSmall=QDLKWGs61niNfIlmR7Wo0Q==, figureFileBig=DH2mThG+Xteazh7VAGxiNg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442642794655885, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442629301579831, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation of monthly reported incidence of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2023 after first-order 12-step difference, figureFileSmall=8W2q5f5RfUU5kh9VPHJp6w==, figureFileBig=Cj1+liKM7s43XIFLWTbwTw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442642853376142, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442629301579831, language=CN, label=图3, caption=2017—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布病月报告发病率序列1阶12步差分后序列自相关和偏自相关图, figureFileSmall=8W2q5f5RfUU5kh9VPHJp6w==, figureFileBig=Cj1+liKM7s43XIFLWTbwTw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442642920485007, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442629301579831, language=EN, label=Fig.4, caption=Significance test diagrams of the fitting model of monthly reported incidence of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2023, figureFileSmall=aoPz243y/EA5CwlenvgY9A==, figureFileBig=i6yps6hHocvtx8/+5qVI2g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442642979205264, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442629301579831, language=CN, label=图4, caption=2017—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布病月报告发病率序列拟合模型显著性检验图, figureFileSmall=aoPz243y/EA5CwlenvgY9A==, figureFileBig=i6yps6hHocvtx8/+5qVI2g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442643046314129, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442629301579831, language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=

Comparison of predicted and actual monthly reported incidences of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regionin 2024

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月份实际值预测值80%CI95%CI
14.152 13.218 71.833 6～4.603 81.100 4～5.337 1
23.852 35.628 73.787 2～7.470 32.812 4～8.445 1
36.346 97.743 65.730 7～9.756 44.665 2～10.822 0
46.451 18.528 56.172 5～10.884 64.925 2～12.131 9
57.054 99.285 96.714 6～11.857 25.353 5～13.218 4
66.805 08.832 06.060 6～11.603 34.593 5～13.070 4
76.988 38.679 55.695 1～11.664 04.115 2～13.243 8
85.593 17.106 13.944 8～10.267 42.271 2～11.941 0
93.373 45.167 21.830 1～8.504 50.063 4～10.271 1
103.101 4−0.403 8～6.606 6−2.259 3～8.462 2
113.662 20.000 5～7.323 9−1.937 9～9.262 3
123.378 1−0.436 5～7.192 7−2.455 8～9.212 1
), ArticleFig(id=1320442643126005906, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373219989389464, articleId=1320442629301579831, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2024年内蒙古自治区人间布病分月报告发病率预测值与实际值比较/（1/10万）

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月份实际值预测值80%CI95%CI
14.152 13.218 71.833 6～4.603 81.100 4～5.337 1
23.852 35.628 73.787 2～7.470 32.812 4～8.445 1
36.346 97.743 65.730 7～9.756 44.665 2～10.822 0
46.451 18.528 56.172 5～10.884 64.925 2～12.131 9
57.054 99.285 96.714 6～11.857 25.353 5～13.218 4
66.805 08.832 06.060 6～11.603 34.593 5～13.070 4
76.988 38.679 55.695 1～11.664 04.115 2～13.243 8
85.593 17.106 13.944 8～10.267 42.271 2～11.941 0
93.373 45.167 21.830 1～8.504 50.063 4～10.271 1
103.101 4−0.403 8～6.606 6−2.259 3～8.462 2
113.662 20.000 5～7.323 9−1.937 9～9.262 3
123.378 1−0.436 5～7.192 7−2.455 8～9.212 1
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2017—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布鲁氏菌病流行病学特征分析：基于时间序列模型预测
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高永明 1 , 裴迎新 2 , 王小莉 3 , 王虎虎 1 , 王莹 1 , 聂莉 4 , 尉瑞平 1, *, *
中国公共卫生 | 专题报道——传染病预防与控制 2026,42(1): 13-17
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中国公共卫生 |专题报道——传染病预防与控制 2026 , 42 (1) : 13 -17
2017—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布鲁氏菌病流行病学特征分析：基于时间序列模型预测
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高永明（1981—），主任医师，硕士，研究方向：传染病防制

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高永明1, 裴迎新2, 王小莉3, 王虎虎1, 王莹1, 聂莉4, 尉瑞平1, *, *
作者信息
  • 1内蒙古自治区疾病预防控制中心信息监测科，呼和浩特 010081
  • 2中国疾病预防控制中心，北京 102211
  • 3北京市疾病预防控制中心，北京 101520
  • 4通辽市疾病预防控制中心，通辽 028006
通讯作者:
尉瑞平，E-mail：
作者简介:

高永明（1981—），主任医师，硕士，研究方向：传染病防制

Epidemiological features of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2023: prediction based on time series model
Yongming GAO1, Yingxin PEI2, Xiaoli WANG3, Huhu WANG1, Ying WANG1, Li NIE4, Ruiping YU1
Affiliations
  • 1Department of Information Monitoring, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hohhot 010081, China
  • 2Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102211, China
  • 3Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 101520, China
  • 4Tongliao Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tongliao 028006, China
    • Corresponding Author:
    YU Ruiping, E-mail:
出版时间: 2026-01-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146509
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摘要
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目的

了解内蒙古自治区人间布鲁氏菌病（简称“布病”）疫情动态，掌握流行特征，为预警预测及制定防控措施提供科学依据。

方法

采用2017—2023年中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集内蒙古自治区人间布病个案数据，应用描述性分析方法分析人间布病疫情流行特征，应用时间序列模型（ARIMA）预测布病流行趋势。

结果

2017—2023年，内蒙古自治区人间布病病例各年度报告发病率分别为30.63/10万、39.92/10万、56.84/10万、64.77/10万、91.03/10万、79.57/10万和70.34/10万。2017—2021年呈上升趋势，2022—2023年有所下降，趋势χ2检验差异有统计学意义（χ2=7 843.95，P<0.001）；发病具有明显季节性（Z=5 561.78，P<0.01）；男女性别比为2.20:1，农民占78.4%；发病到诊断时间间隔为0～15 d的病例占比呈逐年上升趋势，差异有统计学意义（χ2=419.38，P<0.001）；报告病例中急性期病例占80.21%、亚急性期病例占16.27%；报告病例由急性期和亚急性期转为慢性期比例逐年下降，差异有统计学意义（χ2=581.18，P<0.01）。选择赤池信息准则（akaike information criterion, AIC）值最小224.65建立模型ARIMA（2，1，1）（0，1，1）12为最优模型，预测拟合效果较理想。

结论

2017—2021年内蒙古自治区人间布病报告发病率总体呈上升趋势，2022—2024年呈下降趋势。

人间布鲁氏菌病  /  流行特征  /  监测  /  内蒙古自治区  /  时间序列模型  /  赤池信息准则
Objective

To understand the epidemic dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, thus providing a scientific basis for early warning, prediction, and prevention and control of this disease.

Methods

On the basis of the case data of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2023 in the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, descriptive analysis was performed to reveal the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis, and the ARIMA model was adopted to predict the epidemic trend of this disease.

Results

From 2017 to 2023, the annual reported incidences of human brucellosis cases in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were 30.63/100 000, 39.92/100 000, 56.84/100 000, 64.77/100 000, 91.03/100 000, 79.57/100 000, and 70.34/100 000, respectively. The incidence rose from 2017 to 2021 and declined from 2022 to 2023 (χ2 = 7 843.95, P < 0.001). The epidemic had obvious seasonality (Z = 5 561.78, P < 0.01). The cases showed a male: female ratio of 2.20:1, with farmers accounting for 78.4%. The proportion of cases with a time interval of 0 to 15 days between onset and diagnosis increased year by year (χ2 = 419.38, P < 0.001). The reported cases in the acute phase and subacute phase accounted for 80.21% and 16.27%, respectively. The proportion of reported cases transitioning from acute and subacute phases to chronic phase decreased year by year (χ2 = 581.18, P < 0.01). The ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model established with the minimum AIC value of 224.65 was the optimal, demonstrating satisfactory fitting effect in prediction.

Conclusions

The reported incidence of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region shows an overall upward trend from 2017 to 2021 and a decreasing trend from 2022 to 2024.

human brucellosis  /  epidemiological characteristics  /  surveillance  /  Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region  /  time series mode  /  akaike information criterion,
高永明, 裴迎新, 王小莉, 王虎虎, 王莹, 聂莉, 尉瑞平. 2017—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布鲁氏菌病流行病学特征分析：基于时间序列模型预测. 中国公共卫生, 2026 , 42 (1) : 13 -17 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146509
Yongming GAO, Yingxin PEI, Xiaoli WANG, Huhu WANG, Ying WANG, Li NIE, Ruiping YU. Epidemiological features of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2023: prediction based on time series model[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2026 , 42 (1) : 13 -17 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146509
正文
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布鲁氏菌病（简称“布病”）是一种严重的人兽共患细菌性传染病，严重危害人体健康，给畜牧业的健康发展及对外贸易都造成了严重影响[1]，已成为公共卫生问题之一[2–3]。人感染布鲁氏菌后主要表现为发热、乏力、关节疼痛、肌肉痛等症状，可引起多器官系统并发症[4]。目前布病已在全球170多个国家及地区广泛流行，每年约有50万人患布病[5]。研究显示，我国自20世纪90年代中后期布病的发病呈回升趋势[6]，北方仍为我国布病的主要流行区，但南方的疫情有扩散的趋势[7]。近年来，内蒙古自治区人间布病发病数持续居全国首位[8]。本研究采用2017—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布病数据，描述性分析人间布病疫情流行特征，并应用时间序列模型（autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA）预测流行趋势。结果报告如下。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　资料来源
2017—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布病报告发病资料来源于《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》子系统《传染病报告信息管理系统》。2017—2023年人口资料数据来源于各年度内蒙古自治区统计年鉴。2017—2023年全国人间布病发病资料来自中国传染病监测报告。本研究通过内蒙古自治区疾病预防控制中心伦理委员会审批（审批号：202503101）。
1.2　病例诊断
参考《布鲁氏菌病诊断：WS 269—2019》中相关诊断依据[9]。
1.3　方法
采用描述性分析方法分析人间布病疫情流行特征；应用ARIMA模型[10]预测布病流行趋势。具体步骤为：（1）时间序列的平稳化：通过绘制时序图判断时间序列的平稳性，若为非平稳时间序列则需要通过差分或数据转化进行平稳化处理；（2）模型识别：绘制平稳时间序列的自相关函数（autocorrelation function, ACF）图和偏自相关函数（partial autocorrelation function, PACF）图，根据其截尾或拖尾的情况估计模型中p、q、P 和Q 的值；（3）参数估计及诊断：通过Ljung-Box残差白噪声检验判断残差是否满足白噪声序列，再根据赤池信息准则（akaike information criterion, AIC）最小原则来确定最佳模型；（4）模型验证及预测：利用最优预测模型进行预测，通过比较真实值与预测值的平均相对误差（mean absolute percent error, MAPE）来评价模型的拟合程度；使用“圆形分布法”计算布病发病周期[11–12]。
1.4　统计分析
采用Excel 2013建立数据库，应用R软件包进行统计分析。采用描述性分析、χ2检验、圆形分布分析、Rayleigh′s检验及ARIMA时间序列分析，检验水准α=0.05（双侧）。
2　结　果
收起
2.1　流行概况
2017—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布病报告发病率分别为30.63/10万、39.92/10万、56.84/10万、64.77/10万、91.03/10万、79.57/10万和70.34/10万；2017年报告发病率最低，2021年报告发病率最高。
2.2　时间分布
2.2.1　趋势分析（图1）
2017—2021年内蒙古自治区人间布病病例报告发病率呈上升的趋势，2022—2023年有所下降，趋势χ2检验差异有统计学意义（χ2=7 843.95，P<0.001）。2021年为报告发病峰值，2017—2021年，5年平均增长速度为24.34%，2021—2023年平均增长速度为−8.23%。
2.2.2　季节性分析（图2）
2017—2023年，内蒙古自治区各月份均有病例报告，发病时间存在明显的季节性；每年3月份起报告病例数迅速增加，5—7月份为发病高峰，8月份开始下降，10月份发病人数最少，12月份发病数有所回升，与1月份持平。使用“圆形分布法”计算布病发病周期，由2017—2023年布病各月报告病例数计算得$ {\mathrm{Sin}}_{\bar{\alpha }} $=0.451 0，$ {\mathrm{Cos}}_{\bar{\alpha }} $= −0.892 5，则$ \bar{\alpha } $=153.195 3°，落在第2象限内，对应日为第156天，故内蒙古自治区人间布病发病高峰日期为6月5日。$ r $值（0.228 5）较小，S值（98.445 4）较大，说明季节性高峰平缓，高发时段较长，角度区间（α±S）为54.749 9°～251.641 0°，对应日为第55～252天，即内蒙古自治区人间布病流行期为每年2月10日—9月9日，采用Rayleigh′s检验得Z=5 561.78，不同季节性分析差异有统计学意义（P<0.01）。
2.3　地区分布
2017—2023年内蒙古自治区12个盟（市）103个旗（县、区）均有人间布病病例报告。报告发病率居于前3位的盟（市）依次为兴安盟、通辽市和巴彦淖尔市，平均报告发病率分别为119.82/10万、112.05/10万和92.57/10万，占报告发病总数的43.81%；居前5位的旗（县、区）依次为包头市达尔罕茂名联合旗、包头市固阳县、鄂尔多斯市乌审旗、兴安盟科尔沁右翼前旗和通辽市库伦旗，平均报告发病率分别为471.46/10万、294.05/10万、258.36/10万、243.11/10万和240.79/10万，占报告发病总数的11.11%。这些地区均属于牛羊畜牧养殖的农牧地区。2017—2023年内蒙古自治区报告发病率超过280.0/10万的旗县区由2017年的2个增加到2021年的9个。报告病例中城市人口占比由13.31%（2017年）上升至16.53%（2023年），布病病例有从农牧区向城市蔓延的趋势。
2.4　人群特征分析
2.4.1　年龄和性别分布
2017—2023年报告病例中，男女性别比为2.20:1，男、女性平均报告发病率分别为82.40/10万和39.42/10万，各年份男性报告发病率明显高于女性，差异有统计学意义（P<0.000 1）；病例中年龄最小的为2月龄，最大为96岁，各年度报告发病数及报告发病率较高的年龄段主要为25～74岁，报告发病数占全部病例的94.94%。
2.4.2　职业分布
2017—2023年报告病例以农民为主，占总病例数的78.4%（83 498/106 497）；其次报告病例数较多的职业依次为牧民9.46%（10 073/106 497）、家务及待业4.40%（4 684/106 497）、学生1.25%（1 336/106 497）和工人0.97%（1 038/106 497）；其他职业占5.52%（5 879/106 479）。其中牧场养殖相关工作人员、牛羊肉销售经营人员、兽医防疫人员、牛羊肉销售及运输人员、牛羊肉屠宰及肉食加工人员报告病例数占2.27%（2 417/106 497）。
2.5　病例发病到诊断时间间隔和急性期转为慢性期比例
2017—2023年报告病例从发病到诊断的时间间隔中位数为12.42 d，四分位间距为26.96 d；发病到诊断时间间隔在15 d内的占58.78%（62 588/106 497），在16～30 d的占17.67%（18 815/106 497），在31～90 d的占16.27%（17 324/106 497），在91～180 d的占3.76%（4 004/106 497），181～365 d的占1.67%（1 778/106 497），>365 d的占1.85%（1 970/106 497）。2017—2023年发病到诊断时间间隔为0～15 d的病例占比呈逐年上升趋势，差异有统计学意义（χ2=419.38，P<0.001）。报告病例中急性期病例占80.21%（85 421/106 497）、亚急性期病例占16.27%（17 327/106 497）、慢性期病例占3.52%（3 749/106 497）。 2017—2023年各年度均有从急性期和亚急性期转为慢性期的病例，各年度从急性期和亚急性期转为慢性期病例的占比依次为6.14%（459/747）、7.13%（694/9 740）、5.88%（813/13 824）、5.09%（808/15 869）、3.33%（703/21 120）、2.80%（516/18 425）和2.54%（414/16 296），呈逐年下降趋势，趋势χ2检验，差异有统计学意义（χ2=581.18，P<0.01）。
2.6　ARIMA时间序列分析
2.6.1　时序图及模型识别定阶（图3、4）
2017—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布病月报告发病率整体呈长期线性递增的趋势，并且具有以年为周期的季节性效应。经1阶12步差分后可消除趋势性和周期性，单位根检验（ADF）显示序列平稳（P<0.01）。白噪声检验显示非白噪声序列（P<0.01），可以判定为平稳非白噪声序列。同时对季节差分后的数据进行ACF、PACF图检验。（见图3）。经判定和反复测试后选择ARIMA（2，1，1）（0，1，1）12建立模型为最优模型，通过赤池信息量准则选择最小AIC值为224.65，最优拟合模型参数、估计值和标准差分别为AR1（−0.858 1，0.314 4）、AR2（−0.395 7，0.119 7）、MA1（0.734 2，0.378 3）、SMA1（−0.352 7，0.165 0）。拟合模型显著性检验见图4。
2.6.2　模型拟合与预测（表1）
采用拟合的最优模型对2024年内蒙古自治区布病的报告发病率数据进行预测，并与2024年1—9月实际报告发病率数据进行比较。结果显示，实际值与预测值相比略有推迟，预测拟合效果较理想。
3　讨　论
收起
本研究结果显示，内蒙古自治区人间布病报告发病率在2017—2021年呈上升的趋势、2022—2023年有所下降，2021年报告发病率达峰值（91.03/10万）。流行高峰期为每年5—7月，有明显的季节性。“圆形分布法”可分析计算发病周期，推断在季节性上是否存在分布差异，即在不同的月份或季节中是否存在高峰日的集中趋势[13]。计算得内蒙古自治区人间布病发病高峰日期为每年6月5日。这可能与牛羊繁殖、交易高峰期养殖业人员在从事职业活动中防护不到位，增加暴露感染机会有关；也可能存在夏季烧、烤、涮等烹饪及餐饮过程中食用未熟牛羊肉导致食源性感染的可能[14]。Rayleigh′s检验（Z=5 561.78，P<0.01）证明圆形分布的平均角存在，说明布病的发病在时间分布上有集中趋势，流行高峰期为2月10日—9月9日，与全国布病实际流行周期基本一致[3]。
2017—2023年内蒙古自治区各旗（县、区）均有人间布病病例报告，且具有明显的地区高发特征，报告发病率超过280.0/10万的旗（县、区）由2个增加到9个。报告病例中城市人口占比由13.31%（2017年）上升至16.53%（2023年），布病病例有从农牧区向城市蔓延的趋势，这可能与内蒙古自治区农牧民城镇化率的逐年增加有关[15]。
人群分布特征结果显示，内蒙古自治区布病发病人群主要以中老年男性农民为主，占总病例数的78.4%，源于该人群为家庭中的主要劳动力，且从事牛羊饲养放牧、屠宰接生、运输售卖等工作。个人防护意识不强，未采取保护措施（戴口罩、手套等）而感染，提示布病的发病率与传播媒介的接触机会有关，增加了感染率[16–18]。同时布病病例在商业服务人员、家务等未直接接触家畜的人群中也有分布，提示可能与染疫食品流入市场导致食源性感染有关，这与胡琳等[19]、肖芳等[20]报道一致。
发病到诊断的时间间隔分析显示，病例从发病到诊断的时间间隔逐年缩短，2017—2023年，间隔在0～15 d的占比逐年上升，病例由急性期转为慢性期的占比逐年下降，趋势χ2检验差异均有统计学意义（P<0.001）。这可能与布病高危人群的就医意识及医疗机构对布病的诊断能力提升有关。
应用ARIMA模型进行时间序列分析，构建ARIMA（2，1，1）（0，1，1）12模型拟合效果较理想。预测结果显示，2024年内蒙古自治区人间布病的报告发病率呈下降趋势，可为内蒙古自治区布病疫情发生的预警预测和制定科学防控措施提供科学数据。
综上所述，近年内蒙古自治区人间布病报告发病率虽有所下降，但布病流行特征较复杂。其作为动物源性传染病，人间布病疫情有所回升，反映了畜间布病的再度活跃，两者的流行趋势存在正相关[21]。因此，畜牧与卫生部门需密切配合，建立灵活、高效、多部门配合的联防联控机制。切实做好牲畜检疫，加强高风险职业人群的健康筛查、提高布病诊疗水平和公众的预防意识，控制布病的进一步传播流行，保障人民身体健康。

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doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146509
  • 接收时间：2024-11-25
  • 首发时间：2026-10-23
  • 出版时间：2026-01-10
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  • 收稿日期：2024-11-25
  • 修回日期：2025-08-12
  • 录用日期：2025-10-17
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    1内蒙古自治区疾病预防控制中心信息监测科，呼和浩特 010081
    2中国疾病预防控制中心，北京 102211
    3北京市疾病预防控制中心，北京 101520
    4通辽市疾病预防控制中心，通辽 028006

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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