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Open-source projects,particularly those in the domain of artificial intelligence,have become vital carriers for firms to achieve digital technological breakthroughs. Yet,how to choose an appropriate license that can ensure the sustainable development of open-source projects remains an unsettled question. Based on a sample of 2,536,526 open-source projects from GitHub,this study constructed a theoretical model of the differential impacts of open-source license on the sustainability of open-source projects in the context of technological complexity and empirically tested it by using the negative binomial regression method. The results showed that: (1) the adoption of open-source license has a significant positive effect on the sustainable development of open-source projects,manifested as increases in user interest and development activeness;(2) compared to restrictive license,permissive license can promote the sustainable development of open-source projects to a larger extent;(3) the license with patent grant clause has a stronger promoting effect on the sustainable development of projects than that without such a clause;and (4) technological complexity positively moderates the relationship between open-source license and the sustainability of open-source projects. This study has revealed the boundary conditions under which open-source license affects the sustainable development of open-source projects,thus helping firms improve governance mechanisms of open-source projects oriented towards complex digital technologies and offering insights for building a sustainable and prosperous open-source ecosystem.

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以人工智能为代表的开源项目已成为企业实现数字技术突破的重要载体。然而,如何选择适当的许可证以保障开源项目可持续发展是企业亟待解决的难题。本文构建不同技术复杂度情境下许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的异质性影响模型,选取GitHub平台2009—2023年发布的2,536,526项开源项目作为样本,采用负二项模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明:(1) 开源许可证的采纳显著促进开源项目的可持续发展,具体表现为用户关注度和开发活跃度的提升;(2) 相对于限制型许可证,宽松型许可证的促进作用更强;(3) 相对于缺少专利许可条款的许可证,包含该条款的许可证对项目可持续发展的积极影响更显著;(4) 技术复杂度正向调节上述许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的影响。研究揭示了开源许可证规制影响开源项目可持续发展的边界条件,有助于企业优化面向复杂数字技术的开源许可证治理机制,为构建健康繁荣的开源生态提供启示。

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黄灿,E-mail:
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李兰花(1991—),女(汉),安徽桐城人,浙江工业大学中国中小企业研究院助理研究员,研究方向:开源创新。

陈真真(2000—),女(汉),贵州遵义人,浙江大学管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:创新与知识产权管理。

黄 灿(1979—),男(汉),广西南宁人,浙江大学管理学院教授,研究方向:创新与知识产权管理。

王黎萤(1973—),女(汉),黑龙江密山人,浙江工业大学中国中小企业研究院教授,研究方向:创新与标准。

谢雯欣(1998—),女(汉),浙江丽水人,浙江工业大学管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:开源创新。

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黄 灿(1979—),男(汉),广西南宁人,浙江大学管理学院教授,研究方向:创新与知识产权管理。

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黄 灿(1979—),男(汉),广西南宁人,浙江大学管理学院教授,研究方向:创新与知识产权管理。

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王黎萤(1973—),女(汉),黑龙江密山人,浙江工业大学中国中小企业研究院教授,研究方向:创新与标准。

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谢雯欣(1998—),女(汉),浙江丽水人,浙江工业大学管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:开源创新。

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谢雯欣(1998—),女(汉),浙江丽水人,浙江工业大学管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:开源创新。

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The essence of innovative collaboration and theoretical evolution of open source software from cooperation and competition perspectives[J]. Science of Science and Management of S.& T., 2024, 45(12):13-30., articleTitle=The essence of innovative collaboration and theoretical evolution of open source software from cooperation and competition perspectives, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1263915180547781583, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2024, volume=45, issue=2, pageStart=93, pageEnd=104, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[2], rfOrder=2, authorNames=李英姿, 张丙雪, 杨明萱, journalName=科研管理, refType=null, unstructuredReference=李英姿, 张丙雪, 杨明萱. 开源创新多重网络构建与分析:以百度Apollo为例[J]. 科研管理, 2024, 45(2): 93-104., articleTitle=开源创新多重网络构建与分析:以百度Apollo为例, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1263915180791051220, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2024, volume=45, issue=2, pageStart=93, pageEnd=104, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[2], rfOrder=3, authorNames=LI Yingzi, ZHANG Bingxue, YANG Mingxuan, journalName=Science Research Management, refType=null, unstructuredReference=LI Yingzi, ZHANG Bingxue, YANG Mingxuan. Construction and analysis of open -source innovation multiplex networks: A case study of Baidu Apollo[J]. Science Research Management, 2024, 45(2): 93-104., articleTitle=Construction and analysis of open -source innovation multiplex networks: A case study of Baidu Apollo, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1263915181319533530, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=38, issue=11, pageStart=207, pageEnd=232, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[3], rfOrder=4, authorNames=焦豪, 杨季枫, journalName=管理世界, refType=null, unstructuredReference=焦豪, 杨季枫. 数字技术开源社区的治理机制:基于悖论视角的双案例研究[J]. 管理世界, 2022, 38(11): 207-232., articleTitle=数字技术开源社区的治理机制:基于悖论视角的双案例研究, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1263915181520860129, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=38, issue=11, pageStart=207, pageEnd=232, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[3], rfOrder=5, authorNames=JIAO Hao, YANG Jifeng, journalName=Journal of Management World, refType=null, unstructuredReference=JIAO Hao, YANG Jifeng. The governance mechanism of digital technology-based open source community: A comparative case study from the paradox perspective[J]. Journal of Management World, 2022, 38(11): 207-232., articleTitle=The governance mechanism of digital technology-based open source community: A comparative case study from the paradox perspective, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1263915181801878501, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[4], rfOrder=6, authorNames=张玉明, 魏子重, 张馨月, journalName=开源创新:数智时代高效创新模式, refType=null, unstructuredReference=张玉明, 魏子重, 张馨月. 开源创新:数智时代高效创新模式[M]. 北京: 经济科学出版社, 2023., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1263915181982233577, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[4], rfOrder=7, authorNames=ZHANG Yuming, WEI Zizhong, ZHANG Xinyue, journalName=Open source innovation, refType=null, unstructuredReference=ZHANG Yuming, WEI Zizhong, ZHANG Xinyue. Open source innovation[M]. Beijing: Economic Science Press, 2023., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1263915182116451311, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2009, volume=60, issue=5, pageStart=997, pageEnd=1011, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[5], rfOrder=8, authorNames=COLAZO J, FANG Y, journalName=Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, refType=null, unstructuredReference=COLAZO J, FANG Y. Impact of license choice on open source software development activity[J]. 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The impact of open participation on the performance of open source software projects: A study from the perspective of the open paradox[J]. 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Research on the impact of population aging on digital transformation of enterprises[J]. Science Research Management, 2024, 45(5): 182-192., articleTitle=Research on the impact of population aging on digital transformation of enterprises, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1263915177930535865, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, awardId=22CGL001, language=CN, fundingSource=国家社会科学基金青年项目:“中美科技竞争背景下我国开源生态自主可控能力培育战略与提升路径研究”(22CGL001), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1263915178215748542, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, awardId=2022—2025, language=CN, fundingSource=国家社会科学基金青年项目:“中美科技竞争背景下我国开源生态自主可控能力培育战略与提升路径研究”(2022—2025), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1263915152232034987, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1263915152282366636, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, companyId=1263915152232034987, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1. 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Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis of variables

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1.星标数 1 0.493*** 0.668*** 0.310*** 0.163*** 0.107*** 0.071***
2.订阅数 0.646*** 1 0.525*** 0.371*** 0.167*** 0.332*** 0.123***
3.分叉数 0.600*** 0.496*** 1 0.362*** 0.084*** 0.200*** 0.102***
4.拉取请求数 0.204*** 0.164*** 0.229*** 1 0.271*** 0.023*** 0.188***
5.许可证规制 0.044*** 0.053*** 0.021*** 0.037*** 1 -0.042*** 0.031***
6.项目年限 0.034*** 0.084*** 0.029*** 0.007*** -0.057*** 1 -0.062***
7.技术复杂度 0.049*** 0.064*** 0.042*** 0.077*** 0.030*** -0.048*** 1
观测值 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526
均值 71.10 6.61 19.54 23.47 0.52 6.54 2.47
标准差 785.737 33.353 247.679 365.855 0.50 3.067 1.868
最小值 3 0 0 0 0 1 1
最大值 359 805 8448 141 905 301 585 1 15 10
VIF / / / / 1.01 1.00 1.00
), ArticleFig(id=1263915176382837653, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

变量描述性统计及相关性分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1.星标数 1 0.493*** 0.668*** 0.310*** 0.163*** 0.107*** 0.071***
2.订阅数 0.646*** 1 0.525*** 0.371*** 0.167*** 0.332*** 0.123***
3.分叉数 0.600*** 0.496*** 1 0.362*** 0.084*** 0.200*** 0.102***
4.拉取请求数 0.204*** 0.164*** 0.229*** 1 0.271*** 0.023*** 0.188***
5.许可证规制 0.044*** 0.053*** 0.021*** 0.037*** 1 -0.042*** 0.031***
6.项目年限 0.034*** 0.084*** 0.029*** 0.007*** -0.057*** 1 -0.062***
7.技术复杂度 0.049*** 0.064*** 0.042*** 0.077*** 0.030*** -0.048*** 1
观测值 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526
均值 71.10 6.61 19.54 23.47 0.52 6.54 2.47
标准差 785.737 33.353 247.679 365.855 0.50 3.067 1.868
最小值 3 0 0 0 0 1 1
最大值 359 805 8448 141 905 301 585 1 15 10
VIF / / / / 1.01 1.00 1.00
), ArticleFig(id=1263915176777102234, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Impact of license adoption on sustainable development of open-source project and the moderating effect of technological complexity

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
星标数 订阅数 分叉数 拉取请求数 星标数 订阅数 分叉数 拉取请求数
许可证规制 0.141*** 0.0604*** 0.120*** 0.0774***
×技术复杂度 (0.00601) (0.00288) (0.00582) (0.0194)
许可证规制 0.866*** 0.518*** 0.404*** 1.088*** 0.524*** 0.367*** 0.111*** 0.896***
(0.0109) (0.00498) (0.0114) (0.0371) (0.0199) (0.00879) (0.0189) (0.0832)
项目年限 0.127*** 0.150*** 0.126*** 0.0126 0.126*** 0.150*** 0.125*** 0.0124
(0.00181) (0.000827) (0.00237) (0.00847) (0.00177) (0.000826) (0.00235) (0.00824)
技术复杂度 0.171*** 0.135*** 0.196*** 0.410*** 0.0876*** 0.1000*** 0.124*** 0.365***
(0.00300) (0.00149) (0.00302) (0.00732) (0.00531) (0.00218) (0.00494) (0.0180)
常数项 2.013*** 0.0685*** 0.938*** 1.185*** 2.215*** 0.160*** 1.115*** 1.277***
(0.0500) (0.0108) (0.0358) (0.347) (0.0501) (0.0115) (0.0365) (0.355)
核心编程语言哑变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制
观测数 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526
Wald chi2 24 697.87*** 67 696.23*** 14 602.57*** 52 414.92*** 25 690.81*** 69 096.51*** 15 664.17*** 65 982.35***
), ArticleFig(id=1263915176919708574, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的影响及技术复杂度的调节作用

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
星标数 订阅数 分叉数 拉取请求数 星标数 订阅数 分叉数 拉取请求数
许可证规制 0.141*** 0.0604*** 0.120*** 0.0774***
×技术复杂度 (0.00601) (0.00288) (0.00582) (0.0194)
许可证规制 0.866*** 0.518*** 0.404*** 1.088*** 0.524*** 0.367*** 0.111*** 0.896***
(0.0109) (0.00498) (0.0114) (0.0371) (0.0199) (0.00879) (0.0189) (0.0832)
项目年限 0.127*** 0.150*** 0.126*** 0.0126 0.126*** 0.150*** 0.125*** 0.0124
(0.00181) (0.000827) (0.00237) (0.00847) (0.00177) (0.000826) (0.00235) (0.00824)
技术复杂度 0.171*** 0.135*** 0.196*** 0.410*** 0.0876*** 0.1000*** 0.124*** 0.365***
(0.00300) (0.00149) (0.00302) (0.00732) (0.00531) (0.00218) (0.00494) (0.0180)
常数项 2.013*** 0.0685*** 0.938*** 1.185*** 2.215*** 0.160*** 1.115*** 1.277***
(0.0500) (0.0108) (0.0358) (0.347) (0.0501) (0.0115) (0.0365) (0.355)
核心编程语言哑变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制
观测数 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526 2 536 526
Wald chi2 24 697.87*** 67 696.23*** 14 602.57*** 52 414.92*** 25 690.81*** 69 096.51*** 15 664.17*** 65 982.35***
), ArticleFig(id=1263915177066509219, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Heterogeneous impact of different types of licenses on the sustainable development of open-source projects

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因变量 (1)
星标数
(2)
订阅数
(3)
分叉数
(4)
拉取请求数
(5)
星标数
(6)
订阅数
(7)
分叉数
(8)
拉取请求数
宽松型许可证 0.285*** 0.181*** 0.150*** 0.155***
(0.0139) (0.006 35) (0.0144) (0.0231)
专利许可条款 -0.0192 0.200*** 0.164*** 0.301***
(0.0124) (0.006 81) (0.0132) (0.017)
项目年限 0.164*** 0.166*** 0.173*** 0.0535*** 0.166*** 0.168*** 0.177*** 0.0565***
(0.002 15) (0.001 27) (0.002 24) (0.002 79) (0.002 19) (0.001 32) (0.002 28) (0.002 56)
技术复杂度 0.234*** 0.166*** 0.248*** 0.450*** 0.231*** 0.159*** 0.242*** 0.436***
(0.003 18) (0.001 91) (0.003 39) (0.0033) (0.003 21) (0.00201) (0.00345) (0.00319)
常数项 2.141*** 0.227*** 0.723*** 1.409*** 2.360*** 0.303*** 0.772*** 1.450***
(0.0243) (0.0135) (0.0289) (0.0553) (0.0223) (0.0132) (0.0247) (0.0555)
核心编程语言哑变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制
观测数 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178
Wald chi2 17 976.29*** 36 280.91*** 15 990.89*** 45 261.79*** 17 547.69*** 35 494.55*** 16 332.57*** 47 068.84***
), ArticleFig(id=1263915177196532646, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

不同类型许可证对开源项目可持续发展的异质性影响

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因变量 (1)
星标数
(2)
订阅数
(3)
分叉数
(4)
拉取请求数
(5)
星标数
(6)
订阅数
(7)
分叉数
(8)
拉取请求数
宽松型许可证 0.285*** 0.181*** 0.150*** 0.155***
(0.0139) (0.006 35) (0.0144) (0.0231)
专利许可条款 -0.0192 0.200*** 0.164*** 0.301***
(0.0124) (0.006 81) (0.0132) (0.017)
项目年限 0.164*** 0.166*** 0.173*** 0.0535*** 0.166*** 0.168*** 0.177*** 0.0565***
(0.002 15) (0.001 27) (0.002 24) (0.002 79) (0.002 19) (0.001 32) (0.002 28) (0.002 56)
技术复杂度 0.234*** 0.166*** 0.248*** 0.450*** 0.231*** 0.159*** 0.242*** 0.436***
(0.003 18) (0.001 91) (0.003 39) (0.0033) (0.003 21) (0.00201) (0.00345) (0.00319)
常数项 2.141*** 0.227*** 0.723*** 1.409*** 2.360*** 0.303*** 0.772*** 1.450***
(0.0243) (0.0135) (0.0289) (0.0553) (0.0223) (0.0132) (0.0247) (0.0555)
核心编程语言哑变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制
观测数 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178
Wald chi2 17 976.29*** 36 280.91*** 15 990.89*** 45 261.79*** 17 547.69*** 35 494.55*** 16 332.57*** 47 068.84***
), ArticleFig(id=1263915177318167466, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Moderating effect of technological complexity on different types of licenses

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因变量 (1)
星标数
(2)
订阅数
(3)
分叉数
(4)
拉取请求数
(5)
星标数
(6)
订阅数
(7)
分叉数
(8)
拉取请求数
宽松型许可证 0.0231*** 0.0293*** 0.0615*** -0.00122
×技术复杂度 (0.006 59) (0.0035) (0.006 75) (0.0101)
宽松型许可证 0.221*** 0.0978*** -0.0186 0.159***
(0.023) (0.0111) (0.0246) (0.0482)
专利许可条款 0.0181*** 0.002 27 -0.007 26 0.0398***
×技术复杂度 (0.006 03) (0.003 72) (0.006 83) (0.007 46)
专利许可条款 -0.0674*** 0.194*** 0.183*** 0.194***
(0.0204) (0.012) (0.0234) (0.0331)
项目年限 0.164*** 0.166*** 0.173*** 0.0535*** 0.166*** 0.168*** 0.177*** 0.0563***
(0.002 16) (0.001 27) (0.002 25) (0.002 74) (0.002 19) (0.001 32) (0.002 28) (0.002 56)
技术复杂度 0.217*** 0.144*** 0.201*** 0.451*** 0.224*** 0.158*** 0.245*** 0.421***
(0.005 63) (0.002 56) (0.005 52) (0.009 19) (0.004 39) (0.002 93) (0.004 58) (0.003 82)
常数项 2.189*** 0.289*** 0.850*** 1.407*** 2.379*** 0.306*** 0.764*** 1.488***
(0.0273) (0.0141) (0.0321) (0.066) (0.0236) (0.0143) (0.0255) (0.0563)
核心编程语言哑变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制
观测数 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178
Wald chi2 18 071.45*** 36 950.09*** 16 265.38*** 45 261.15*** 17 547.69*** 35 494.55*** 16 332.57*** 47 068.84***
), ArticleFig(id=1263915177431413679, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263530790265569318, articleId=1263915146733302411, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

技术复杂度对不同类型许可证影响的调节效应

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因变量 (1)
星标数
(2)
订阅数
(3)
分叉数
(4)
拉取请求数
(5)
星标数
(6)
订阅数
(7)
分叉数
(8)
拉取请求数
宽松型许可证 0.0231*** 0.0293*** 0.0615*** -0.00122
×技术复杂度 (0.006 59) (0.0035) (0.006 75) (0.0101)
宽松型许可证 0.221*** 0.0978*** -0.0186 0.159***
(0.023) (0.0111) (0.0246) (0.0482)
专利许可条款 0.0181*** 0.002 27 -0.007 26 0.0398***
×技术复杂度 (0.006 03) (0.003 72) (0.006 83) (0.007 46)
专利许可条款 -0.0674*** 0.194*** 0.183*** 0.194***
(0.0204) (0.012) (0.0234) (0.0331)
项目年限 0.164*** 0.166*** 0.173*** 0.0535*** 0.166*** 0.168*** 0.177*** 0.0563***
(0.002 16) (0.001 27) (0.002 25) (0.002 74) (0.002 19) (0.001 32) (0.002 28) (0.002 56)
技术复杂度 0.217*** 0.144*** 0.201*** 0.451*** 0.224*** 0.158*** 0.245*** 0.421***
(0.005 63) (0.002 56) (0.005 52) (0.009 19) (0.004 39) (0.002 93) (0.004 58) (0.003 82)
常数项 2.189*** 0.289*** 0.850*** 1.407*** 2.379*** 0.306*** 0.764*** 1.488***
(0.0273) (0.0141) (0.0321) (0.066) (0.0236) (0.0143) (0.0255) (0.0563)
核心编程语言哑变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制
观测数 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178 1 312 178
Wald chi2 18 071.45*** 36 950.09*** 16 265.38*** 45 261.15*** 17 547.69*** 35 494.55*** 16 332.57*** 47 068.84***
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开源许可规制、技术复杂度与开源项目可持续发展:基于GitHub大样本实证研究
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李兰花 1 , 陈真真 2 , 黄灿 2 , 王黎萤 1 , 谢雯欣 3
科研管理 | 2026,47(3): 189-198
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科研管理 | 2026, 47(3): 189-198
开源许可规制、技术复杂度与开源项目可持续发展:基于GitHub大样本实证研究
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李兰花1, 陈真真2, 黄灿2 , 王黎萤1, 谢雯欣3
作者信息
  • 1.浙江工业大学 中国中小企业研究院浙江省新型重点专业智库,浙江 杭州 310023
  • 2.浙江大学 管理学院知识产权管理研究所,浙江 杭州 310058
  • 3.浙江工业大学 管理学院,浙江 杭州 310023
  • 李兰花(1991—),女(汉),安徽桐城人,浙江工业大学中国中小企业研究院助理研究员,研究方向:开源创新。

    陈真真(2000—),女(汉),贵州遵义人,浙江大学管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:创新与知识产权管理。

    黄 灿(1979—),男(汉),广西南宁人,浙江大学管理学院教授,研究方向:创新与知识产权管理。

    王黎萤(1973—),女(汉),黑龙江密山人,浙江工业大学中国中小企业研究院教授,研究方向:创新与标准。

    谢雯欣(1998—),女(汉),浙江丽水人,浙江工业大学管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:开源创新。

通讯作者:

黄灿,E-mail:
Open-source license regulation,technological complexity,and sustainable development of open-source projects: An empirical study based on a large sample from GitHub
Lanhua Li1, Zhenzhen Chen2, Can Huang2 , Liying Wang1, Wenxin Xie3
Affiliations
  • 1. Zhejiang Provincial New Key Professional Think Tank / China Institute for SMEs,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,Zhejiang,China
  • 2. School of Management / Research Institute for Management of Intellectual Properties,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,Zhejiang,China
  • 3. School of Management,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,Zhejiang,China
出版时间: 2026-03-20 doi: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.03.019
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以人工智能为代表的开源项目已成为企业实现数字技术突破的重要载体。然而,如何选择适当的许可证以保障开源项目可持续发展是企业亟待解决的难题。本文构建不同技术复杂度情境下许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的异质性影响模型,选取GitHub平台2009—2023年发布的2,536,526项开源项目作为样本,采用负二项模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明:(1) 开源许可证的采纳显著促进开源项目的可持续发展,具体表现为用户关注度和开发活跃度的提升;(2) 相对于限制型许可证,宽松型许可证的促进作用更强;(3) 相对于缺少专利许可条款的许可证,包含该条款的许可证对项目可持续发展的积极影响更显著;(4) 技术复杂度正向调节上述许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的影响。研究揭示了开源许可证规制影响开源项目可持续发展的边界条件,有助于企业优化面向复杂数字技术的开源许可证治理机制,为构建健康繁荣的开源生态提供启示。

开源许可证  /  开源项目  /  可持续发展  /  技术复杂度  /  GitHub

Open-source projects,particularly those in the domain of artificial intelligence,have become vital carriers for firms to achieve digital technological breakthroughs. Yet,how to choose an appropriate license that can ensure the sustainable development of open-source projects remains an unsettled question. Based on a sample of 2,536,526 open-source projects from GitHub,this study constructed a theoretical model of the differential impacts of open-source license on the sustainability of open-source projects in the context of technological complexity and empirically tested it by using the negative binomial regression method. The results showed that: (1) the adoption of open-source license has a significant positive effect on the sustainable development of open-source projects,manifested as increases in user interest and development activeness;(2) compared to restrictive license,permissive license can promote the sustainable development of open-source projects to a larger extent;(3) the license with patent grant clause has a stronger promoting effect on the sustainable development of projects than that without such a clause;and (4) technological complexity positively moderates the relationship between open-source license and the sustainability of open-source projects. This study has revealed the boundary conditions under which open-source license affects the sustainable development of open-source projects,thus helping firms improve governance mechanisms of open-source projects oriented towards complex digital technologies and offering insights for building a sustainable and prosperous open-source ecosystem.

open-source license  /  open-source project  /  sustainable development  /  technological complexity  /  GitHub
李兰花, 陈真真, 黄灿, 王黎萤, 谢雯欣. 开源许可规制、技术复杂度与开源项目可持续发展:基于GitHub大样本实证研究. 科研管理, 2026 , 47 (3) : 189 -198 . DOI: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.03.019
Lanhua Li, Zhenzhen Chen, Can Huang, Liying Wang, Wenxin Xie. Open-source license regulation,technological complexity,and sustainable development of open-source projects: An empirical study based on a large sample from GitHub[J]. Science Research Management, 2026 , 47 (3) : 189 -198 . DOI: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.03.019
数字经济时代下,基于“自下而上”分布式开发和用户协同创新的开源模式孕育出云计算、区块链、人工智能等新兴数字技术,成为引领数字创新和实践的新型技术范式[1]。开源对于我国实现数字领域关键核心技术突破尤为重要。通过低成本的集体开发和源代码共享[2],企业能够极大地提升技术迭代效率,快速形成“事实上”的开放标准和开源生态系统,从而打破对国际大型专有软件公司的依赖、掌握数字产业生态的话语权[3]。近年来,我国“十四五”规划明确提出支持数字技术开源发展,工业和信息化部也随之推出培育重点开源项目、繁荣国内开源生态的专项行动。作为开源创新体系的微观构成单元,稳健发展的开源项目是开源生态繁荣的重要基石[4]。然而,除了小部分开源项目能获得长足发展外,约80%的开源项目因缺乏持续的开发者贡献和用户参与而走向失败[5]。由于源代码复制成本极低、开源社区知识产权保护意识薄弱,较高的知识产权风险已成为开发者和用户退出开源项目的主要原因[6]。以往研究指出开源项目的非排他性导致大量“搭便车”等机会主义行为,严重削弱了开源知识产权贡献者的积极性[7]。因此,如何优化开源项目的知识产权治理机制以保障开源项目的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。
作为开源社区的核心知识产权治理机制[8],开源许可证规定了开发者与用户对开源代码进行使用、修改和再发布的权利和义务边界,旨在平衡知识产权的独占性和开源价值主张的开放共享性[9],有效防范知识产权侵权等开源治理风险[4]。开源许可证的数量和种类繁多[10],截至目前已获开源促进会组织 (Open Source Initiative) 批准的开源许可证多达96种。不同开源许可证在是否允许衍生代码闭源、是否授权专利许可等规定上呈现出显著差异,服务于不同的项目发展战略、核心成员的商业意图甚至生态布局意图[11-12]。近年来,开源许可证在开源项目发展中的规制作用逐渐成为开源创新研究的焦点议题[12-13]
现有文献大多基于定性案例研究、博弈模型等方法从理论上探讨开源许可证的治理机制与潜在影响[3,14-15]。例如,Santos等[16]研究发现许可证的限制性越强,开源项目的开发活跃度越低;August等[17]利用建模方法研究发现,对于部分开源项目,限制性更强的许可证更能提升开发者的贡献水平。然而,已有研究在许可证规制能否显著促进开源项目的可持续发展问题上尚未形成统一结论[18],尤其缺乏不同类型开源许可证的异质性效应检验。此外,开源软件开发属于知识密集型复杂系统工程[7],一项开源软件的开发可能涉及多种编程语言,造成开源项目协作成本上升、项目依赖关系复杂化[7]。技术复杂度不仅提升了分布式开发和软件应用难度,也为开源知识产权治理带来了新的挑战。随着技术复杂度的增加,开源许可证规制对项目可持续发展的促进作用是否得到增强?对这一问题的探索有助于明确开源许可规制的情境适用性。
基于此,本文选取2009—2023年GitHub平台上发布的2 536 526项开源项目样本,实证检验开源许可证的采纳以及其具体特征对开源项目可持续发展的影响。开源项目的可持续发展离不开开发者和用户的共同参与和技术贡献[19]。一方面,开源项目开发属于典型的分布式开发模式[7],开发活跃度是开源软件实现快速迭代的基石。另一方面,开源项目呈现显著的用户创新特征[20],用户的广泛关注能提升项目在开源生态中的扩散速度和影响力,从需求端推动开源项目的持续更新[3]。因此,为弥补现有研究通常聚焦于开发者或用户单一视角来分析开源项目发展的不足[5,19],本文提出许可证规制能够同时提升开源项目的用户关注度和开发活跃度,进而促进开源项目可持续发展。此外,本文进一步比较了宽松型许可证与限制型许可证、是否包含专利许可条款对开源项目可持续发展的异质性影响。最后,本文检验了技术复杂度对开源许可证规制与开源项目可持续发展间关系的调节效应,揭示了复杂技术情境下的开源许可治理机制。
项目管理者在创建项目时通常根据项目特征及知识产权管理需求选择特定的开源许可证。然而,并非所有开源项目都会明确设置许可证来规制软件开发与代码许可行为,原因在于项目管理者对许可证规制的重要性认识不足,或软件开发仍处于探索阶段,适用的许可证类型尚未明晰[21]。因此,本文首先探讨开源许可证的采纳对开源项目可持续发展的影响。
在开源许可证缺失的情况下,项目所有者保留软件库的版权,用户在使用开源项目时可能面临较高的知识产权侵权风险。因此,许可证的缺失容易引发用户对项目合法性的质疑,从而抑制了其对项目的关注和参与意愿。相反,明确稳定的版权许可规则赋予开源项目更高的透明度和合法性,有助于吸引潜在用户[7]。开源许可证通过规定用户使用、修改和分发项目源代码必须遵守的具体条款,确保用户在权利义务要求范围内根据个人意愿自由使用和改进开源软件,有效规避法律风险,进而增强用户对项目的关注度和使用意愿。
对于开发者而言,对开源理念的推崇等内在动机、个人技能展示和声誉提升等外在动机共同影响其参与开源项目的积极性[22]。开源许可证的缺失容易引发开发者对开源项目是否符合开源精神的质疑,削弱开发者参与技术合作和知识贡献的动机,因此开发者对项目的持续技术贡献难以得到充分保障[14]。反之,采纳明确许可证规制的开源项目已构建统一的知识产权许可框架,为开发者提供相对安全、可预测的创新环境,促进参与主体间信任与协作,激励开发者广泛参与分布式软件开发并贡献代码。综上,本文提出如下假设:
H1:许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展存在积极的影响;
H1a: 许可证规制能够增强开源项目的用户关注度;
H1b: 许可证规制能够增强开源项目的开发活跃度。
不同类型的许可证存在显著差异,对开发者和用户的项目参与和使用偏好产生影响。首先,不同许可证之间的异质性主要体现在对社区成员代码分发权利的限制程度上[23]。根据对开源项目衍生产品分发条件的不同规定,开源许可证可分为限制型许可证和宽松型许可证。具体地,限制型许可证要求衍生产品必须在相同或相似的许可证下以开源形式发布;宽松型许可证则允许衍生产品以闭源形式发布[16]。本文拟探讨许可证限制程度对用户关注度和开发活跃度的异质性影响。
对于用户而言,宽松型许可证授予用户更多项目权限和行动自由,允许用户根据自身需求自由修改软件,且无须以开源形式公开修改后的代码,满足了用户对源代码商业化应用的需求,例如结合私有软件销售或基于开源版本开发商业软件[15]。此外,宽松许可证能够消除技术不兼容风险[15],有利于用户整合开源技术、探索多元化创新需求。相反地,限制型许可要求衍生产品必须以开源形式发布,可能与用户技术秘密保护等目标冲突,从而削弱用户的关注度和使用意愿。综上,宽松型许可证通过减少法律和技术上的限制降低开源项目的使用门槛,更能吸引开源用户。
对于开发者而言,限制型许可证通过严格规范其开发行为,显著影响开发者的技术贡献动机和意愿。限制型许可证虽满足了开发者对开源理念的追求,但其对软件应用范围的限制和对衍生代码的闭源要求极大地削弱了开发者持续贡献的动力。而宽松型许可证因其较少的权利约束,能够吸引更多开发者和用户群体,促进更广泛的技术融合,并从中获得关于软件应用、系统兼容性和功能故障等方面的反馈[24]。丰富实践场景下涌现的用户反馈提升了开发者解决问题的积极性,鼓励开发者根据用户需求和问题反馈优化源代码,形成了开源项目开发迭代的闭环。基于此,本文提出如下假设:
H2:相对于限制型许可证,宽松型许可证更能促进开源项目的可持续发展;
H2a:相对于限制型许可证,宽松型许可证更能提升开源项目的用户关注度;
H2b:相对于限制型许可证,宽松型许可证更能提升开源项目的开发活跃度。
其次,开源许可证与专利等传统的知识产权保护手段并不相斥。随着近年来国内外对软件专利保护的逐步增强,软件专利的扩散对开源项目发展构成潜在威胁。已有研究发现开源项目一旦卷入专利侵权诉讼,其用户兴趣和开发者活动会显著减少[25]。为规避专利侵权风险,部分开源许可证包含了明确的专利许可条款,允许用户在特定条件下使用项目所有者和贡献者的专利,确保开源项目的创新合作精神得以维持[16]。因此,本研究拟探讨专利许可条款的纳入如何影响开源项目的可持续发展。
对于用户来说,专利许可条款通过向所有用户授予专利权,减少了用户感知的专利侵权和诉讼风险,提升用户获取、使用开源技术和开展后续创新的自由度[26]。通过纳入专利许可条款,管理者为项目构建了知识产权自我防御机制,能够有效预防基于开源技术申请专利并发起专利诉讼等机会主义行为,从而增强用户对开源项目稳定性和可靠性的信心。另外,专利许可条款要求所有者公开许可与开源技术相关的专利,降低了用户在商业化过程中需支付的专利信息检索和许可费用等交易成本。因此,包含专利许可条款的开源许可证能够显著提升用户对项目的关注度。
对于开发者来说,专利许可条款能吸引更多用户使用开源项目并提供反馈,进而激发开发者提供技术支持的积极性[10]。更重要的是,专利许可条款确保开发者的创新不被他人独占,降低了开发者遭遇他方专利诉讼的风险。因此,专利许可条款的纳入能够促进开源社区成员之间的互信,提升知识共享和技术合作的深度与广度,进而提高开源项目的开发活跃度。据此,本文提出如下假设:
H3:包含明确专利许可条款的许可证更能促进开源项目的可持续发展;
H3a:包含明确专利许可条款的许可证更能提升开源项目的用户关注度;
H3b:包含明确专利许可条款的许可证更能提升开源项目的开发活跃度。
技术复杂度是指技术及其所包含的科学原理、规则被理解的容易程度和技术实际应用时涉及的元件、系统与其他单体技术和材料的复杂程度[14]。开源项目的技术复杂性主要体现在算法、模块和组件的复杂组合。这种复杂度不仅影响开源软件的用户接受度,也增加了开发者技术合作和知识转移的难度。因此,本文进一步探究在不同技术复杂度水平下,开源许可证规制是否对开源项目可持续发展产生异质性影响。
高技术复杂度的开源项目更需确保项目的合法性和协作的高效性,以协调和整合用户和开发者资源,因此对开源知识产权治理提出了更高要求[27]。一方面,高技术复杂度增加了用户和开发者的知识学习成本和知识转化难度,提升了其对项目合法性和透明度的需求,使得用户和开发者在选择和参与开源项目开发时更为审慎。在此情境下,开源许可证通过设置明确的知识产权治理规则,能够提升高技术复杂度开源项目的合规程度,降低项目潜在的法律风险。
另一方面,开源社区的分布式开发具有不确定性和模糊性等特点[3],此类特征在高技术复杂度项目中尤为突出。高技术复杂度的开源项目呈现出更高的协作开发需求,对参与者的专业素养和技能提出更高要求,更需有效激发和满足“技术极客”追求复杂技术开发的内在动机。项目管理者通过引入基于开源许可证的知识产权管理和协作机制,能够有效缓解高技术复杂度项目的管理难度,降低参与门槛并优化创新资源配置,激励参与者的知识贡献与技术应用[16],从而保障开源项目的可持续发展。因此,在高技术复杂度下,开源许可证规制对项目可持续发展的促进作用得到强化。综上,本文提出如下假设:
H4:技术复杂度增强了许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的促进作用;
H4a:技术复杂度增强了许可证规制对开源项目用户关注度的正向影响;
H4b:技术复杂度增强了许可证规制对开源项目开发活跃度的正向影响。
为实现高效协作开发源代码,开发者通常引入第三方开源组件实现特定技术功能[6]。由于第三方开源组件可能采纳不同类型的开源许可证,模块和组件的组合易引发开源许可证的兼容性问题[6]。随着项目技术复杂度的提高,许可证兼容性问题进一步凸显,本研究拟探究不同类型许可证在高技术复杂度情境下的差异性影响。
首先,许可证的限制性越强,其兼容性通常越差。而宽松型许可证一般不包含“传染性”条款,与绝大多数许可证广泛兼容[15]。在技术复杂度较高的项目中,使用宽松型许可证更能促进不同开源系统和组件间的互操作性,有利于开发者整合其他许可证下的开源技术形成复杂技术解决方案,同时削减了软件应用的合规审查成本,强化了开发者和用户的感知有用性[10]。其次,对于复杂度高的项目,技术发展的不确定程度越高,更需构建高效的激励和协作机制以推动开源项目的持续发展。宽松型许可证有利于吸引广泛的用户基础,从而为开发者提供即时反馈[17],同时提升开发者协作自由度,鼓励来自不同技术背景的开发者通力协作解决技术难题。基于此,本文提出如下假设:
H5:技术复杂度增强了宽松型许可证对开源项目可持续发展的促进作用;
H5a:技术复杂度增强了宽松型许可证对开源项目用户关注度的促进作用;
H5b:技术复杂度增强了宽松型许可证对开源项目开发活跃度的促进作用。
最后,本文提出在高技术复杂度情境下,包含专利许可条款的许可证更能促进开源项目的稳定发展。一方面,技术复杂度较高的开源项目所使用的软件算法和技术组件也更多,因此开源技术落入现有专利保护网的可能性较高,开源项目面临较高的潜在专利诉讼风险[28],用户知识产权侵权风险和应诉成本也显著上升。另一方面,高技术复杂度的项目需要依靠更多社区开发者的协作开发来实现关键核心技术攻关。然而,专利侵权诉讼行为易引发开发者群体信任危机,阻碍开源项目的创新合作。
因此,在技术复杂度高的情境下,项目管理者更需要增强专利许可机制以威慑潜在专利诉讼行为。在许可证中引入专利许可条款能够帮助开发者和用户有效规避专利侵权和诉讼风险,通过自动授予专利使用权消除潜在专利许可成本,为协作开发提供了稳定可靠的制度保障,从而显著增强开发者和用户群体的相互信任度和项目参与意愿[26]。综上所述,本文提出以下假设:
H6:技术复杂度增强了专利许可条款对开源项目可持续发展的促进作用;
H6a:技术复杂度增强了专利许可条款对开源项目用户关注度的促进作用;
H6b:技术复杂度增强了专利许可条款对开源项目开发活跃度的促进作用。
本文的研究框架如图1所示。
本研究选择GitHub平台近年来发布的开源项目作为实证研究对象。GitHub是全球最大的开源项目托管平台,汇聚了来自全球各地的逾1亿软件开发者和用户,项目管理者可以在该平台上创建开源项目,存储和管理源代码,且能够跟踪、记录并审查开发者和用户对代码的后续修改和改进。具体地,本研究采用Kaggle在线数据平台上发布的GitHub项目大样本数据集。Kaggle是谷歌旗下的全球数据科学平台,用户可以基于该平台收集、处理和在线发布数据集,截至目前该数据平台已服务来自190多个国家1800万数据科学家和数据分析用户[29]。Kaggle平台发布的GitHub数据集通过Python脚本在GitHub官网上爬取,共包括自2009年1月1日至2023年1月21日间创建的2 917 951项开源项目。删除关键变量缺失的观测值后,最终样本包括2 536 526项开源项目,其中1 312 178项(44.97%)开源项目已建立明确的开源许可证。
因变量:本研究从用户关注度和开发活跃度两方面来衡量开源项目的可持续发展水平。(1)用户关注度。根据以往文献[18,30],本研究采用星标数量(Stars)以及订阅数量(Watchers)两项指标来衡量开源项目的用户关注度。用户可以通过点亮星标的方式来支持特定的开源项目,因此星标数量越多意味着项目受到越多用户的关注和认可[18]。用户选择订阅某一项目后,可及时收到该项目的更新通知和相关动态。因此订阅数量表明开源项目受到用户持续关注的程度[30]。(2)开发活跃度。本研究采用分叉数量(Forks)和拉取请求数量(Pull requests)来衡量开源项目的开发活跃度。不同开发者可以通过分叉将现有开源软件版本复制到自身的代码库中创建衍生版本,独立进行代码修改、改进和个性化定制,而不影响原始软件的代码。因此,高分叉数量意味着开源项目呈现出密集的分布式开发态势[31]。在完成独立开发后,开发者可通过拉取请求向项目管理者提交代码合并请求以修复错误或完善软件功能。因此拉取请求数量较高说明开源项目吸引了开发者的积极技术贡献[32]
自变量:(1)许可证规制。本研究采用虚拟变量来测量许可证规制,1表示项目管理者已添加特定的许可协议来规范开源软件许可行为;0表示截止到观测日开源项目尚未选择任一种开源许可证。(2)宽松型许可证。本研究采用虚拟变量来区分宽松型许可证与限制型许可证,1表示项目所采用的开源许可证规定修改后的代码必须以开源形式发布;0表示所采用的许可证允许用户对后续改进的代码进行闭源使用[18]。(3)专利许可条款。本研究采用虚拟变量来测量区分不同许可证中的专利许可条款,1表示开源软件的版权所有者通过开源许可证授予他方相关专利的许可,0表示许可证缺乏相关的专利许可条款或明确限制用户使用软件作者所持有的相关专利[26]
调节变量:技术复杂度。本研究采用开源项目涉及的开发语言种类数量来衡量技术复杂度。由于不同编程语言具有不同的语法和特性,甚至需要通过不同的开发框架整合在一起,开源项目使用到的开发语言种类越多,其代码结构的复杂度和维护难度越高[18]
参考已有文献[32],本研究选取以下控制变量:(1)项目年限。开源项目的年限越长,一般获得较多的用户关注和开发者参与,因此将项目年限纳入控制变量。(2)核心编程语言。开源项目虽然可能涉及多种开发语言,但一般会标注其使用的核心编程语言。由于不同编程语言在开源社区的受欢迎程度存在差异,本研究采用一系列哑变量来控制核心编程语言对开源项目发展水平的影响。
本研究因变量用户关注度和开发活跃度均为计数型离散变量,使用常规的线性回归模型将造成系统性偏误,应使用泊松回归模型、负二项回归模型等计数模型。然而,本研究因变量的统计分布不满足泊松分布中均值等于标准差的假定,且不存在零膨胀问题,因此泊松模型、零膨胀泊松模型均不适用,故采用负二项回归模型开展实证研究[33],以解决因变量过度分散问题。
表1展示了主要变量的描述性统计及相关性系数,主要解释变量间的相关系数均低于0.4,解释变量的方差膨胀因子(VIF)最大值为1.01,远低于临界值10,说明本文的实证研究基本不受多重共线性影响。
表2的模型1-4展示了许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的影响。在控制了项目年限、技术复杂度、核心编程语言类别等变量后,许可证规制对开源项目的星标数和订阅数均存在显著的正向影响(β=0.866,p<0.01,模型1;β=0.518,p<0.01,模型2),假设1a得到验证。如模型3和4所示,许可证规制正向影响开源项目的分叉数和拉取请求数,说明许可证规制能够显著促进开源项目的开发活跃度,印证了假设1b。总体而言,相对于缺少许可证的项目,已建立明确开源许可证的项目能够吸引用户和开发者的广泛关注和参与,有利于开源项目的可持续发展,假设1得到支持。结果说明许可证规制不仅能提升用户对开源项目的吸引力和使用兴趣,也能增强开发者参与该项目技术合作和代码贡献的意愿,从创新端和应用端同时推动开源项目的长期发展。
为检验不同类型许可证对开源项目发展的异质性影响,本研究选取所有已建立许可证规制的开源项目子样本进行实证分析。表3中的模型1和2显示,宽松型许可证对开源项目星标数和订阅数均存在显著的正向影响,即采用宽松型许可证的开源项目能获得更高的用户关注度,假设2a得到支持。模型3和4表明相对于限制型许可证,宽松型许可证能显著提升开源项目的分叉数和拉取请求数,说明宽松型许可证更能激发开源项目的开发活跃度,假设2b得到证实。上述结果显示宽松型许可证总体上更能促进项目的可持续发展,验证了假设2,这说明相较于限制型许可证,宽松型许可证通过提供更大的开发自由度并降低开源软件的应用门槛,提升开发者贡献和用户使用的意愿,形成迭代开发和创新反馈的良性循环,为开源项目的长足发展提供持续动能。
表3中的模型5-8展示了专利许可条款的纳入对开源项目可持续发展的影响。如模型5和6所示,虽然专利许可条款对项目的星标数没有影响,但对订阅数存在显著的正向影响,说明明确的专利许可条款一定程度上能够提升开源项目的用户关注度,假设3b得到支持。模型7和8显示专利许可条款的纳入显著提升了开源项目的分叉数和拉取请求数,正向影响开发活跃度,验证了假设3b。总体上,相较于缺乏专利许可条款的开源许可证,包含专利许可条款的许可证对于开源项目可持续发展的促进作用更强,假设3得到证实,这说明专利许可条款的纳入能够显著降低用户和开发者感知的专利侵权风险,增强核心利益相关群体的互信,推动开源项目的创新合作与价值共创。
本研究进一步检验了技术复杂度的调节效应。表2中的模型5-8显示许可证规制和技术复杂度的交互项均为正向显著,说明技术复杂度高的情境下,许可证规制对开源项目星标数、订阅数、分叉数和拉取请求数的正向影响均得到增强,假设4(包括假设4a和4b)得到证实。
表4中的模型1-4展示了技术复杂度对宽松型许可证影响的调节效应。模型1和2中许可证规制和技术复杂度的交互项均显著为正,说明技术复杂度高的情境下,许可证规制对开源项目星标数和订阅数的正向影响进一步增强,证实了假设5a。模型3和4显示虽然技术复杂度对宽松型许可证与拉取请求数之间的正向关系未起到调节作用,但显著增强了宽松型许可证对开源项目分叉数的积极影响,假设5b得到了部分支持。上述结果总体上印证了假设5。表4中的模型5-8表明尽管技术复杂度在专利许可条款与开源项目订阅数、分叉数的关系中未起到明显的调节作用,但显著增强了专利许可条款对开源项目星标数和拉取请求数的积极影响,说明专利许可条款一定程度上促进了开源项目的用户关注度和开发活跃度,假设6(包括假设6a和6b)得到证实。上述实证结果表明针对技术复杂度较高的开源项目,项目管理者通过配置宽松型和含有专利许可条款的许可证,能有效降低复杂技术情境下的法律和技术不确定性,减少核心参与者对于“搭便车”等机会主义行为的顾虑,从而激发开发者的知识贡献和用户的充分关注,保障开源项目的可持续发展。
为验证实证结果的稳健性,本文改变计量回归模型开展补充分析。由于因变量均为非负数且存在显著的“右偏性”,参考以往研究[34],本文对开源项目星标数、订阅数、分叉数和拉取请求数均进行自然对数转换再开展普通最小二乘法回归分析,所有假设均得到支持,表明实证结果具有较高的稳健性。由于本研究的自变量均为二值选择变量,在因变量取对数的情况下,回归系数可直接解释为弹性。由稳健性分析结果可知,开源许可证的采纳平均能带来39.8%星标数、28.6%订阅数、27.5%分叉数和72.1%拉取请求数的提升。相对于限制型许可证,宽松型许可证平均增加16.1%的星标数、4.43%的订阅数、8.38%的分叉数和11.9%的拉取请求数。相对于缺乏专利许可条款的许可证,包含专利许可条款的许可证平均增加14.7%的订阅数、14.1%的分叉数和16.6%的拉取请求数。综上,开源许可证规制能显著提升开源项目的发展水平。
基于GitHub平台2009—2023年发布的2 536 526项开源项目样本,本研究采用负二项模型检验许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的影响效应,研究结论与潜在理论贡献如下:
(1)开源许可证规制是推动开源项目可持续发展的重要制度性动因。本研究提出用户关注度和开发活跃度作为衡量开源项目可持续发展水平的关键指征,受开源许可证规制的显著影响。一方面,开源许可规制增强了开源项目的透明度和合法性,正向影响开源项目用户关注度,具体表现为项目星标数和订阅数的增加。另一方面,开源许可规制提升了开源创新环境的安全性和可预测性,从而激发开源项目的开发活跃度,开发者创建的分叉数和拉取请求数均得到显著增加。本文的研究结果弥补了现有研究对于开源许可证规制影响开源项目多维度发展水平的经验证据不足。本研究通过构建开源许可证规制推动开源项目可持续发展的“用户-开发者”双重路径,揭示了开源许可证作为正式知识产权法律框架在开源创新治理中的关键作用。
(2)不同类型的许可证对开源项目可持续发展的影响存在显著差异。首先,相较于限制型许可证,宽松型许可证展示出更高的技术兼容性和商业化潜力,降低了技术和法律限制导致的开源社区学习、分布式协作和开源软件交易等成本,强化了用户和开发者对开源项目的感知有用性,因此对开源项目的用户关注度和开发活跃度具有更显著的正向影响。其次,相较于缺少专利许可条款的许可证,包含该条款的许可证能有效缓解开源软件隐含的专利侵权风险,增强开发者和用户对开源项目稳定性和可靠性的信心,进而提升用户关注度和开发活跃度。这一结论印证了专利等传统知识产权保护手段与开源许可证规制的协同效应[4],为构建以开源许可证为主、专利许可为补充的开源知识产权治理体系奠定了基础。
(3)技术复杂度正向调节开源许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的影响效应。高技术复杂度情境下开源创新治理面临严峻挑战,是否允许衍生作品闭源、是否包括专利许可条款等许可证的多元特征是决定一项开源项目能否有效整合社区资源、激励创新以及促进开源软件应用的关键因素。实证结果显示技术复杂度显著增强了开源许可证规制的采纳、宽松型许可证以及专利许可条款对开源项目可持续发展的积极影响,从而揭示了不同技术复杂度情境下开源许可证规制作用于项目可持续发展的边界条件。该结论表明,随着技术复杂度的上升,开源许可证规制的协调与规范功能愈加重要[14],同时凸显了审慎选择开源许可证类型的必要性,有效回应了面向复杂数字技术的开源协作与治理难题[7]
本文的研究结论可从开源许可证规制角度为本土开源项目发展和生态培育提供如下启示:
(1)对于项目管理者来说,应重视许可证规制在开源项目治理的重要角色,审慎选择符合项目发展目标的开源许可证。第一,应从战略层面综合分析项目所涉及核心利益群体的诉求,在选择开源许可证时应同时考虑用户的商业化需求和开发者的创新动机,选择能够服务于开源生态发展战略目标的开源许可证。第二,应借助各类开源许可证选择指南,细致评估不同许可证涉及的著作权侵权、专利侵权等法律风险,将衍生作品分发限制以及专利许可等具体条款的差异纳入许可证选择的考量。针对技术复杂度高的项目,管理者应优先选择宽松型许可证,并考虑支持专利许可,进而提升开源项目的技术兼容性,同时有效规避专利侵权风险。
(2)对于政策制定者来说,应加快构建完善自主可控的开源许可证体系,为开源生态繁荣提供制度保障。吸取国际开源社区的许可证制定、推广和应用经验,调研开放原子开源基金会、中国开源软件推进联盟等国内权威开源机构,深入了解开发者、用户、企业、政府单位等关键开源参与主体的需求,在现有木兰许可证的基础上加快构建立足国内、辐射全球、面向新兴数字技术的多样化开源许可证治理体系。
本研究存在如下不足。第一,本研究聚焦于开源许可协议这一显性知识产权治理机制对项目可持续发展的影响,未来研究可关注商标注册、贡献者协议和版本控制系统等其他显性或隐性的知识产权治理机制对开源项目发展的多维度影响。第二,由于本研究使用2023年爬取的开源项目截面数据进行实证检验,难以动态追踪开源许可证在开源项目不同发展阶段中的差异化影响。未来研究可利用Python编程技术在GitHub平台收集并构建开源项目的面板数据,深入探讨选择项目演化发展过程中许可证规制的动态影响机制。
  • 国家社会科学基金青年项目:“中美科技竞争背景下我国开源生态自主可控能力培育战略与提升路径研究”(22CGL001)
  • 国家社会科学基金青年项目:“中美科技竞争背景下我国开源生态自主可控能力培育战略与提升路径研究”(2022—2025)
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doi: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.03.019
  • 接收时间:2024-05-21
  • 首发时间:2026-05-20
  • 出版时间:2026-03-20
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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-21
  • 修回日期:2024-12-02
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目:“中美科技竞争背景下我国开源生态自主可控能力培育战略与提升路径研究”(22CGL001)
国家社会科学基金青年项目:“中美科技竞争背景下我国开源生态自主可控能力培育战略与提升路径研究”(2022—2025)
作者信息
    1.浙江工业大学 中国中小企业研究院浙江省新型重点专业智库,浙江 杭州 310023
    2.浙江大学 管理学院知识产权管理研究所,浙江 杭州 310058
    3.浙江工业大学 管理学院,浙江 杭州 310023

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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