Article(id=1241416383364395336, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, issueId=1241416382559081210, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.0253-6099.2025.03.004, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1733587200000, receivedDateStr=2024-12-08, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773906330194, onlineDateStr=2026-03-19, pubDate=1748707200000, pubDateStr=2025-06-01, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773906330194, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-19, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773906330194, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773906330194, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241416382559081210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, year='2025', volume='45', issue='3', pageStart='1', pageEnd='223', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773906330003, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773908015401, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241423451685179940, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, issueId=1241416382559081210, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241423451685179941, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, issueId=1241416382559081210, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=22, endPage=28, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241416384031289676, articleId=1241416383364395336, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, language=EN, title=Threshold Model for Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Yuanma Basin, columnId=1236276106018484431, journalTitle=Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, columnName=MINING, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

As for rainfall-induced landslides in Mayang, Yuanling and Luxi counties within the red-bed region of the Yuanma Basin in Hunan Province, a correlation between landslides and rainfall were analyzed. Based on the E-D threshold model, the daily rainfall (R) was introduced as a third indicator to construct an E-D-R threshold model, thereby rainfall thresholds were determined for the Yuanma Basin. The study area was divided into warning units with the Thiessen Polygon method, enabling a county-level, unit-based graded warning response. The results show that the period from four days before a landslide to the day of the landslide represents the critical rainfall period for inducing landslides in the Yuanma Basin, and it is deemed appropriate for the effectiveness coefficient (α) of the rainfall to be 0.5. Compared to the two-dimensional E-D threshold model, the three-dimensional E-D-R threshold model demonstrates higher precision and offers greater accuracy and reliability in landslide risk assessment. The grid-based and refined division of warning units not only enhances the refined management and control capabilities of meteorological warnings for landslide disasters, but also facilitates unit-specific differentiated warnings in future forecasting by integrating predicted rainfall and rain information.

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以湖南省沅麻盆地红层区麻阳、沅陵、泸溪三县降雨型滑坡为研究对象,进行滑坡与降雨的相关性分析;在E-D阈值模型基础上,引入当日降雨量R作为第三指标构建E-D-R阈值模型,确定沅麻盆地降雨阈值;基于泰森多边形划分方法,对研究区域进行预警单元划分,实现县域级别的单元分级预警响应。结果表明:滑坡前4 d至滑坡当日为沅麻盆地诱发滑坡的关键降雨时期,降雨有效系数α取0.5较为合适;相较于E-D二维阈值模型,E-D-R三维阈值模型精度更高,在滑坡风险评估中具有更高的准确性和可靠性;网格化、精细化预警单元划分不仅能增强滑坡灾害气象预警的精细化管控能力,而且能在未来预警预报中,结合预报雨量和降雨信息,实现单元差异化预警。

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李军伟(1980—),男,河南原阳人,硕士,研究员级高级工程师,主要从事工程地质与岩土工程方面的研究工作。E-mail:
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龙长聪(1984—),男,湖南隆回人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事水工环地质与岩土工程方面的研究工作。E-mail:

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龙长聪(1984—),男,湖南隆回人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事水工环地质与岩土工程方面的研究工作。E-mail:

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龙长聪(1984—),男,湖南隆回人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事水工环地质与岩土工程方面的研究工作。E-mail:

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(a)月平均降雨量;(b)年降雨量

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(a)滑坡数量;(b)经济损失

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(a)E-D二维阈值模型;(b)E-D-R三维阈值模型

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Statistical analysis of the maximum daily rainfall within 15 days before landslide and landslide occurrence

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
最大日降雨量/mm降雨等级滑坡数/个滑坡比例/%
[0,10)小雨104.41
[10,25)中雨2912.77
[25,50)大雨7332.16
[50,100)暴雨5022.03
[100,250)大暴雨6428.19
[250,+∞)特大暴雨10.44
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滑坡前15 d最大日降雨量及滑坡数统计

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
最大日降雨量/mm降雨等级滑坡数/个滑坡比例/%
[0,10)小雨104.41
[10,25)中雨2912.77
[25,50)大雨7332.16
[50,100)暴雨5022.03
[100,250)大暴雨6428.19
[250,+∞)特大暴雨10.44
), ArticleFig(id=1241422270204268732, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, articleId=1241416383364395336, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Correlation between landslides and accumulated rainfall in the early period

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
累计降雨量相关系数r累计降雨量相关系数r
P00.597**P80.513**
P10.632**P90.510*
P20.609**P100.507**
P30.590**P110.490**
P40.591**P120.495**
P50.557**P130.484**
P60.526**P140.483**
P70.529**P150.490**
), ArticleFig(id=1241422270342680776, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, articleId=1241416383364395336, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

滑坡与前期累计降雨量相关性分析结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
累计降雨量相关系数r累计降雨量相关系数r
P00.597**P80.513**
P10.632**P90.510*
P20.609**P100.507**
P30.590**P110.490**
P40.591**P120.495**
P50.557**P130.484**
P60.526**P140.483**
P70.529**P150.490**
), ArticleFig(id=1241422270476898516, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, articleId=1241416383364395336, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Correlation between landslides and effectively accumuted rainfall under different α values

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
α相关系数rα相关系数r
0.40.641**0.80.639**
0.50.643**0.90.636**
0.60.643**1.00.632**
0.70.641**
), ArticleFig(id=1241422270598533342, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, articleId=1241416383364395336, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

不同α值下滑坡与有效累计降雨量相关性分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
α相关系数rα相关系数r
0.40.641**0.80.639**
0.50.643**0.90.636**
0.60.643**1.00.632**
0.70.641**
), ArticleFig(id=1241422270736945384, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, articleId=1241416383364395336, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Early warning results of different threshold models for Yuanma Basin

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
预警等级预警结果比例/%
E-D模型E-D-R模型
不注意
注意20.06.7
特别注意13.333.3
警告20.06.7
严重警告46.753.3
), ArticleFig(id=1241422270862774511, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, articleId=1241416383364395336, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

沅麻盆地不同阈值模型预警结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
预警等级预警结果比例/%
E-D模型E-D-R模型
不注意
注意20.06.7
特别注意13.333.3
警告20.06.7
严重警告46.753.3
), ArticleFig(id=1241422271068295412, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, articleId=1241416383364395336, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

Rainfall thresholds in E-D-R model corresponding to different warning grades in Yuanma Basin

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
预警等级E-D-R降雨阈值
不注意E≤6.58D-0.13R<1.8
注意①6.58D-0.13E<17.25D-0.13R<1.8
E<6.58D-0.13且1.8≤R<7.8
特别注意①17.25D-0.13E<47.27D-0.13R<7.8
E<17.25D-0.13且7.8≤R<40
警告①47.27D-0.13E<129.27D-0.13R<40
E<47.27D-0.13且40≤R<104
严重警告E≥129.27D-0.13R<104
), ArticleFig(id=1241422271202513148, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980550691926019, articleId=1241416383364395336, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

沅麻盆地不同预警等级对应的E-D-R模型降雨阈值

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
预警等级E-D-R降雨阈值
不注意E≤6.58D-0.13R<1.8
注意①6.58D-0.13E<17.25D-0.13R<1.8
E<6.58D-0.13且1.8≤R<7.8
特别注意①17.25D-0.13E<47.27D-0.13R<7.8
E<17.25D-0.13且7.8≤R<40
警告①47.27D-0.13E<129.27D-0.13R<40
E<47.27D-0.13且40≤R<104
严重警告E≥129.27D-0.13R<104
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沅麻盆地降雨诱发滑坡阈值模型研究
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龙长聪 1 , 李军伟 2 , 蒋鑫 3 , 王津 4 , 段艳平 1
矿冶工程杂志 | 采矿 2025,45(3): 22-28
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矿冶工程杂志 | 采矿 2025, 45(3): 22-28
沅麻盆地降雨诱发滑坡阈值模型研究
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龙长聪1 , 李军伟2 , 蒋鑫3, 王津4, 段艳平1
作者信息
  • 1.湖南省自然资源调查所,湖南 长沙 410014
  • 2.湖南省地质实验测试中心,湖南 长沙 410007
  • 3.湖南省地质地理信息所,湖南 长沙 410014
  • 4.湖南科技大学,湖南 湘潭 411201
  • 龙长聪(1984—),男,湖南隆回人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事水工环地质与岩土工程方面的研究工作。E-mail:

通讯作者:

李军伟(1980—),男,河南原阳人,硕士,研究员级高级工程师,主要从事工程地质与岩土工程方面的研究工作。E-mail:
Threshold Model for Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Yuanma Basin
Changcong LONG1 , Junwei LI2 , Xin JIANG3, Jin WANG4, Yanping DUAN1
Affiliations
  • 1.Geological Survey Institute of Hunan Province, Changsha 410014, Hunan, China
  • 2.Geological Experiment and Testing Center of Hunan Province, Changsha 410007, Hunan, China
  • 3.Geological and Geographic Information Institute of Hunan Province, Changsha 410014, Hunan, China
  • 4.Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, Hunan, China
出版时间: 2025-06-01 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-6099.2025.03.004
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以湖南省沅麻盆地红层区麻阳、沅陵、泸溪三县降雨型滑坡为研究对象,进行滑坡与降雨的相关性分析;在E-D阈值模型基础上,引入当日降雨量R作为第三指标构建E-D-R阈值模型,确定沅麻盆地降雨阈值;基于泰森多边形划分方法,对研究区域进行预警单元划分,实现县域级别的单元分级预警响应。结果表明:滑坡前4 d至滑坡当日为沅麻盆地诱发滑坡的关键降雨时期,降雨有效系数α取0.5较为合适;相较于E-D二维阈值模型,E-D-R三维阈值模型精度更高,在滑坡风险评估中具有更高的准确性和可靠性;网格化、精细化预警单元划分不仅能增强滑坡灾害气象预警的精细化管控能力,而且能在未来预警预报中,结合预报雨量和降雨信息,实现单元差异化预警。

沅麻盆地  /  滑坡  /  降雨量  /  阈值模型  /  预警预报  /  地质灾害

As for rainfall-induced landslides in Mayang, Yuanling and Luxi counties within the red-bed region of the Yuanma Basin in Hunan Province, a correlation between landslides and rainfall were analyzed. Based on the E-D threshold model, the daily rainfall (R) was introduced as a third indicator to construct an E-D-R threshold model, thereby rainfall thresholds were determined for the Yuanma Basin. The study area was divided into warning units with the Thiessen Polygon method, enabling a county-level, unit-based graded warning response. The results show that the period from four days before a landslide to the day of the landslide represents the critical rainfall period for inducing landslides in the Yuanma Basin, and it is deemed appropriate for the effectiveness coefficient (α) of the rainfall to be 0.5. Compared to the two-dimensional E-D threshold model, the three-dimensional E-D-R threshold model demonstrates higher precision and offers greater accuracy and reliability in landslide risk assessment. The grid-based and refined division of warning units not only enhances the refined management and control capabilities of meteorological warnings for landslide disasters, but also facilitates unit-specific differentiated warnings in future forecasting by integrating predicted rainfall and rain information.

Yuanma Basin  /  landslide  /  rainfall  /  threshold model  /  warning and forecasting  /  geological disaster
龙长聪, 李军伟, 蒋鑫, 王津, 段艳平. 沅麻盆地降雨诱发滑坡阈值模型研究. 矿冶工程杂志, 2025 , 45 (3) : 22 -28 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-6099.2025.03.004
Changcong LONG, Junwei LI, Xin JIANG, Jin WANG, Yanping DUAN. Threshold Model for Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Yuanma Basin[J]. Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, 2025 , 45 (3) : 22 -28 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-6099.2025.03.004
滑坡诱因复杂,主要归为人为因素与自然因素。人为因素涉及不合理切坡、开挖及坡顶堆载等;自然因素涵盖降雨、不良地质条件、地震及融雪等。据统计,近年80%以上的滑坡灾害发生在雨量充沛的5~9月,90%以上的滑坡灾害由降雨诱发[1]。通过分析区域降雨特征来开展滑坡灾害预警,关键是确定诱发滑坡的降雨临界值,即降雨阈值。根据降雨阈值进行滑坡灾害预警是常用的地质灾害防控手段[2]
国内外学者围绕降雨阈值的确定进行了大量研究,主要研究思路有两类:一类是基于极限平衡原理,结合模型试验及数值方法确定降雨阈值;另一类是统计分析区域历年滑坡和降雨数据得到经验性降雨阈值[3]。前者为确定性分析方法,通常需要获取岩土体力学参数,受试验条件限制,同时降雨过程中岩土体力学参数变化复杂,实际上很难获取准确的岩土体力学参数,导致准确量化分析降雨诱发滑坡过程极其困难[4]。因此,区域降雨滑坡灾害预警更多采用后者。
对经验性降雨阈值的研究始于1975年,文献[5]在探讨加利福尼亚中南部地区的降雨与滑坡之间的相互关联时,提出滑坡的发生与降雨量存在某种关联,首次引入了滑坡临界累计降雨量的概念。文献[6]在文献[5]的基础上收集整理了全球范围内未受人工侵扰或除降雨外其他因素造成的滑坡事件,于1980年首次用降雨强度与降雨持续时间关系表达式构建了全球滑坡降雨强度-持续时间(I-D)阈值模型。目前,除了I-D阈值模型外,经验性降雨阈值模型还包括有效累计降雨量-持续时间(E-D)模型、有效累计降雨量-降雨强度(E-I)模型、降雨诱发滑坡的有效总降雨量阈值模型以及引入当日降雨量R建立的I-D-R阈值。I-D阈值模型是当前研究降雨阈值应用极为广泛的方法,国内外众多学者采用这一阈值模型来分析区域滑坡临界降雨阈值[7-8]。但I-D阈值模型在一定程度上描述的是降雨过程中降雨强度均值与持续时间的关系,实际工程中,滑坡的发生不仅与降雨强度有关系,而且与滑坡的当日降雨量R以及前期降雨特征关系密切相关[9]
本文以湖南省沅麻盆地红层区的麻阳、沅陵、泸溪3个县为研究区域,收集并整理研究区域内滑坡及降雨资料,进行滑坡事件与降雨的相关性分析;在E-D阈值模型基础上,引入当日降雨量R,建立E-D-R阈值模型,确定沅麻盆地降雨阈值;并基于泰森多边形划分方法,对研究区域进行预警单元划分,实现县域级别下的单元分级预警响应,为沅麻盆地及相邻地区降雨型滑坡的预测预报提供科学依据和参考。
沅麻盆地是沅陵—麻阳—芷江早、晚期新华夏系坳陷地带的主体组成部分,出露于早期华夏武陵山、雪峰山褶皱带之间的过渡区。东以T3-J1或K1与下伏地层不整合为界,西以K1与下伏地层不整合为界。总体走向20°~35°,长255 km,宽30~65 km,面积10 500 km2
沅麻盆地以侵蚀剥蚀中低山、丘陵地貌为主,地形独特,三面高、中部低,坡体切割强烈,沟谷发育,山脉走向与构造线方向一致[10-11]。沅麻盆地内地层主要形成于中生代、新生代,出露地层主要有第四系、白垩系、侏罗系、上三叠系等,以陆相沉积为主的碎屑沉积岩层为主,外观以红色为主,故称其为“红层”。盆地内红层可分为黏土岩类、砂质岩类、砾岩类3个岩类[12]。黏土岩类以薄层至中厚层状为主,多分布于红层内软弱夹层,风化后易泥化,其密实结构和低空隙率导致水平或缓波状层理,浸水后易崩解软化,形成滑带(面)。砂质岩类多呈紫红色或紫色,具有缓波状层理,局部交错或斜层理,由泥质、铁质和硅质胶结,部分含钙质及碳酸盐等晶体,胶结物受水作用易泥化或溶蚀,形成含水或透水带,但溶蚀程度轻。砾岩类主要为底砾岩,砾石多源于下伏灰岩,厚层至巨厚层状,风化后形成丹霞地貌。
沅麻盆地属亚热带气候区,降雨充沛且雨季较长[13]。根据湖南省气象局数据,2010—2022年沅麻盆地降雨量情况如图1所示。沅麻盆地全年降雨呈现单峰分布,具有明显季节性,4月至7月上旬为一年之中的雨季,这个时期的降雨量约占年降雨量的38%,其中6月降雨量最多,占年降雨量的15%;平均年降雨量可达1 414.5 mm,其中2020年总降雨量超过了2 100 mm;平均年降雨天数267 d,其中2017年降雨天数近300 d;该地区雨水充沛,年降雨量呈现波动性增长,年降雨量主要受暴雨次数、梅雨时长影响。
根据调查,2000—2022年期间发育于沅麻盆地麻阳、泸溪、沅陵区域内的滑坡共661起,历年滑坡数量如图2(a)所示。23年间滑坡数量呈锯齿形分布,其中2004年滑坡灾害的频发程度尤为突出。2000—2022年间由滑坡造成的经济损失情况如图2(b)所示。可见不同年份经济损失金额存在显著差异,其中2014年滑坡灾害造成的经济损失最大。
图3为2010—2022年沅麻盆地滑坡灾害频次与全年月平均降雨量分布情况。从图3可知,滑坡灾害频次与月平均降雨量均符合正态分布,滑坡多发于4—7月的雨季,于6月达到峰值,秋、冬季雨水匮乏,滑坡减少。
从2000—2022年沅麻盆地研究区域内滑坡信息及滑坡前15 d的降雨详细数据中,剔除无明确滑动时间和降雨资料缺失的滑坡点,综合考虑降雨情况及滑坡明确诱发因素,最终确定2000—2022年沅麻盆地研究区域内与降雨有关的滑坡共227个。统计滑坡前15 d最大日降雨量与滑坡数,结果见表1。从表1可以看出,滑坡前15 d最大日降雨量为暴雨及以上等级的滑坡占比为50.66%。
分析研究区域内降雨型滑坡前15 d降雨数据发现,滑坡一般滞后于降雨事件(尤其是暴雨及以上级别的降雨),且短时间强降雨常常导致研究区域内多地同时发生滑坡,即发生群发性滑坡。长时间连续降雨也易诱发滑坡。滑坡易发程度与降雨强度、降雨量、降雨时长等呈显著正相关。
湖南省气象地方站2010年开始陆续投入使用,2013年后站点系统趋于稳定,因此选取2013—2022年沅麻盆地研究区域内的滑坡进行分析。将同一天同一站点附近的多次滑坡计为1起滑坡,统计得到滑坡111起,从滑坡附近按照相同规则遴选未滑坡52起,分别匹配降雨事件,共计得到163例样本。以D0表示滑坡当日降雨量,D1为滑坡1 d前日降雨量,D2为滑坡2 d前日降雨量,以此类推,得:
式中:Dn为滑坡n天前日降雨量,mm;Pn为滑坡n天前累计降雨量,mm。
以滑坡对应的滑坡次数作为滑坡因子,分析滑坡与前期累计降雨量的相关性,得到简单相关系数r[14],计算公式为:
对简单相关系数r进行统计检验,其统计量t为:
式中:xiyi分别为某起滑坡对应的滑坡次数和滑坡前累计降雨量;为相应变量的平均值;m为滑坡次数。r≥0.8时,滑坡与前期累计降雨量高度相关;0.5≤r<0.8时,滑坡与前期累计降雨量中等相关;0.3≤r<0.5时,滑坡与前期累计降雨量较低相关度;r<0.3时,滑坡与前期累计降雨量不相关。
使用SPSS软件对沅麻盆地研究区域内滑坡与滑坡前累计降雨量进行相关性分析,计算结果如表2所示。由表2可知,相关系数r整体呈先升后降趋势,滑坡前1 d累计降雨量(P1)达到峰值,滑坡前超过4 d的累计降雨量下降趋势显著增大,滑坡前超过8 d的累计降雨量逐渐减缓并趋于平缓。P1P2P3P4相关系数均达到了0.590及以上,且均在0.01级别下呈显著性相关[4,13]。综上所述,认为滑坡当日及前4 d为沅麻盆地滑坡预警的降雨关键期,可将这5 d看作有效降雨时间段。
降雨对滑坡的影响随着时长增加逐渐降低,因此前期累计降雨量不应该是简单相加,而是有一定的衰减。Crozier提出了前期有效累计降雨量公式为[15]
式中:E为有效累计降雨量,mm;α为降雨有效系数,取值范围为[0.4,1.0][16]
考虑到不同地区气象、地质环境差异性,应确定研究区域适宜的降雨有效系数α。由表2可知,n=1时相关性最大,故选取滑坡前1 d为最关键降雨天数[4,13],即令式(4)中n=1,在[0.4,1.0]等距选取不同系数0.4、0.5、0.6、0.7、0.8、0.9、1.0分别计算有效累计降雨量,再与滑坡次数进行双变量相关性分析,结果如表3所示。
表3可知,滑坡与前期有效累计降雨量相关系数r随着降雨有效系数α增加先升后降,α=0.5和α=0.6时相关系数达到0.643。因此,沅麻盆地研究区域内降雨有效系数α取0.5较为合适。
考虑到滑坡前4 d至滑坡当日为沅麻盆地滑坡预警的降雨关键期,这里取n<5。
将2013—2022年沅麻盆地研究区域内227起滑坡发生前0~15 d内的有效累计降雨量E与降雨持续时间D绘制到E-D双对数坐标中,通过非线性幂函数拟合得到E-D阈值曲线,如图4所示。
根据《暴雨诱发的地质灾害气象风险预警等级》(QX/T 487—2019)[17]中关于有效雨量致灾概率Pe的划分标准,将滑坡预警等级分为5个:不注意(Pe<20%)、注意(20%≤Pe<40%)、特别注意(40%≤Pe<60%)、警告(60%≤Pe<80%)、严重警告(Pe≥80%)。按滑坡致灾概率反演降雨阈值,得到沅麻盆地滑坡概率20%、40%、60%、80%的阈值曲线如图5所示。
E-D阈值模型的基础上,引入第三维度指标R,以更立体地分析降雨与滑坡之间的关系。各个等级的临界降雨指标EiRi满足:
式中:E为有效累计降雨量,mm;R为当日降雨量,mm;i为滑坡灾害阈值等级,且满足R0E0→0,Ei(max)Ei(max)→∞,i=1,2,3,…。
根据各级E-D阈值曲线方程及R的划分共同构建E-D-R三维阈值模型。2013—2022年沅麻盆地研究区域内227起滑坡的E-D-R三维散点分布及投影见图6E-D-R三维阈值等级划分见图7EDR三个指标在不同等级形成三维封闭空间,分别对应5个不同的预警等级。
选取拟合样本外的15起滑坡事件为验证集,分别对E-D阈值模型和E-D-R阈值模型进行精度检验,结果见表4图8表4图8结果显示:E-D阈值模型和E-D-R阈值模型中,处在特别注意及以上预警等级的滑坡分别占80.0%和93.3%,处在严重警告预警等级的滑坡分别占46.7%和53.3%。引入第三维度指标R后,E-D-R三维阈值模型的整体预警级别高于E-D二维阈值模型,E-D-R三维阈值模型精度更高,在滑坡风险评估中具有更高的准确性和可靠性。
沅麻盆地不同预警等级对应的E-D-R模型降雨阈值见表5
研究区域大部分位于沅麻盆地地势较低的区域,东南部及北部两面较高,若能根据地形精准划分单元,可以极大程度提高预警准确性;研究区域内共50个乡镇,若根据乡镇边界划分单元,更便于灾害防控及管理工作的开展。考虑以上两方面因素,基于泰森多边形划分方法,将沅麻盆地红层区麻阳、沅陵、泸溪3个县域划分为114个预警单元,如图9所示。
以2022年6月2日降雨为例,利用表5所列阈值对沅麻盆地研究区域进行滑坡灾害预警,预警结果如图10所示。从图10可以看到,这个研究区有21个单元预警等级为不注意,25个单元预警等级为注意,23个单元预警等级为特别注意,22个单元预警等级为警告,23个单元预警等级为严重警告。各县域因降雨分布差异呈现不同的预警等级,这种方法可以实现县域级别差异性预警。
网格化、精细化预警单元划分,不仅增强了滑坡灾害气象预警的精细化管控能力,而且能在未来预警预报中,结合预报雨量和降雨信息,实现县域级别差异化预警,有利于提高预警预报准确性,降低地质灾害防控成本。
1)沅麻盆地研究区域内,滑坡前4 d至滑坡当日为诱发滑坡的关键降雨时期,降雨有效系数α取0.5较为合适。
2)提出了E-D-R三维阈值模型,相较于E-D二维阈值模型,E-D-R三维阈值模型精度更高,在滑坡风险评估中具有更高的准确性和可靠性。
3)网格化、精细化预警单元划分,不仅能增强滑坡灾害气象预警的精细化管控能力,而且能在未来预警预报中,结合预报雨量和降雨信息,实现单元差异化预警。
  • 国家自然科学基金(52279100)
  • 湖南省自然资源厅基金项目(20230143DZ)
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2025年第45卷第3期
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-6099.2025.03.004
  • 接收时间:2024-12-08
  • 首发时间:2026-03-19
  • 出版时间:2025-06-01
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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-08
基金
国家自然科学基金(52279100)
湖南省自然资源厅基金项目(20230143DZ)
作者信息
    1.湖南省自然资源调查所,湖南 长沙 410014
    2.湖南省地质实验测试中心,湖南 长沙 410007
    3.湖南省地质地理信息所,湖南 长沙 410014
    4.湖南科技大学,湖南 湘潭 411201

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李军伟(1980—),男,河南原阳人,硕士,研究员级高级工程师,主要从事工程地质与岩土工程方面的研究工作。E-mail:
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
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