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Article(id=1199810032410915367, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1185652524569653253, issueId=1199810028623458694, articleNumber=1009-5438(2022)06-0085-05, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1654531200000, receivedDateStr=2022-06-07, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1763986603118, onlineDateStr=2025-11-24, pubDate=1671897600000, pubDateStr=2022-12-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1763986603118, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-11-24, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1763986603118, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1763986603118, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1199810028623458694, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1185652524569653253, year='2022', volume='48', issue='6', pageStart='1', pageEnd='98', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1763986602216, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1764034375076, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1200010402584163079, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1185652524569653253, issueId=1199810028623458694, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1200010402584163080, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1185652524569653253, issueId=1199810028623458694, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=85, endPage=89, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1199810032784208446, articleId=1199810032410915367, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1185652524569653253, language=EN, title=Accident Tree Analysis on Falling Caused by Stomping on Color Plate, columnId=1187102804364640261, journalTitle=Science & Technology of Baotou Steel, columnName=Others, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In the paper, the falling accident caused by stomping on color plate is analyzed with fault tree. It is with the qualitative and quantitative analysis through drawing fault tree and successful tree as well as the fault tree is simplified with the Boolean algebra principles so as to obtain the minimum cut set and path set, probability of occurrence of top event, importance degree of basic event structure of fault tree as well as important links of accidents so as to provide the basis for preventing accidents. The results showed that the casualty accidents of falling caused by stomping on color plate were mainly due to such factors as ineffective safety belts, damaged upholder, stomping on color plate and loss of balance of body so that the measures should be taken to control them.

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文章利用事故树对踏破彩钢板坠落事故进行分析,通过绘制事故树、成功树,利用布尔代数原则对事故树化简,对事故进行定性和定量分析,从而得到该事故树的最小割集、最小径集、顶上事件的发生概率以及基本事件结构重要度,得出发生事故的重要环节,为预防事故的发生提供依据。结果表明,引起踏破彩钢板坠落伤亡事故主要是由安全带不起作用、支撑物破损、踏破彩钢板和身体失去平衡因素造成的,应从这几方面采取措施加以控制。

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杨亚丽(1986-),女,吉林省梅河口市人,硕士,高级安全工程师,现从事安全技术及管理工作。

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杨亚丽(1986-),女,吉林省梅河口市人,硕士,高级安全工程师,现从事安全技术及管理工作。

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杨亚丽(1986-),女,吉林省梅河口市人,硕士,高级安全工程师,现从事安全技术及管理工作。

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基本事件与顶上事件的状态值

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踏破彩钢板坠落的事故树分析
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杨亚丽 1 , 陈东东 2
包钢科技 | 其他 2022,48(6): 85-89
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包钢科技 | 其他 2022, 48(6): 85-89
踏破彩钢板坠落的事故树分析
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杨亚丽1, 陈东东2
作者信息
  • 1 包头钢铁(集团)有限责任公司宝山矿业公司, 内蒙古 包头 014010
  • 2 内蒙古包钢钢联股份有限公司煤焦化工分公司, 内蒙古 包头 014010

    • 杨亚丽(1986-),女,吉林省梅河口市人,硕士,高级安全工程师,现从事安全技术及管理工作。

Accident Tree Analysis on Falling Caused by Stomping on Color Plate
Ya-li Yang1, Dong-dong Chen2
Affiliations
  • 1 Baoshan Mining Co. of Baotou Iron & Steel (Group) Co., Ltd., Baotou 014010, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China
  • 2 Coke Chemical Engineering Branch Co. of Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co., Ltd., Baotou 014010, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China
出版时间: 2022-12-25
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摘要
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文章利用事故树对踏破彩钢板坠落事故进行分析,通过绘制事故树、成功树,利用布尔代数原则对事故树化简,对事故进行定性和定量分析,从而得到该事故树的最小割集、最小径集、顶上事件的发生概率以及基本事件结构重要度,得出发生事故的重要环节,为预防事故的发生提供依据。结果表明,引起踏破彩钢板坠落伤亡事故主要是由安全带不起作用、支撑物破损、踏破彩钢板和身体失去平衡因素造成的,应从这几方面采取措施加以控制。

事故树  /  彩钢板  /  最小割集  /  最小径集

In the paper, the falling accident caused by stomping on color plate is analyzed with fault tree. It is with the qualitative and quantitative analysis through drawing fault tree and successful tree as well as the fault tree is simplified with the Boolean algebra principles so as to obtain the minimum cut set and path set, probability of occurrence of top event, importance degree of basic event structure of fault tree as well as important links of accidents so as to provide the basis for preventing accidents. The results showed that the casualty accidents of falling caused by stomping on color plate were mainly due to such factors as ineffective safety belts, damaged upholder, stomping on color plate and loss of balance of body so that the measures should be taken to control them.

fault tree  /  color plate  /  minimum cut set  /  minimum path set
杨亚丽, 陈东东. 踏破彩钢板坠落的事故树分析. 包钢科技, 2022 , 48 (6) : 85 -89 .
Ya-li Yang, Dong-dong Chen. Accident Tree Analysis on Falling Caused by Stomping on Color Plate[J]. Science & Technology of Baotou Steel, 2022 , 48 (6) : 85 -89 .
正文
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彩钢板房是一种大量应用于简易房屋、临时工地的轻型建筑,使用方便,能快速投入使用。当彩钢板与外界长时间接触之后,容易腐蚀生锈,这时候就会影响到使用,基本的抗压能力也会下降,如果岗位作业人员踏在彩钢板上,就极易发生坠落伤亡事故。2012年,选矿厂破碎车间职工在岗位房顶清理杂物(房高2.2 m左右,房内有托辊等物品)时,踏破彩钢板造成坠落受伤事故。
事故树(Fault Tree,FT)是一种描述事故因果关系的有方向的“树”。事故树分析(Accident Tree Analysis,ATA)方法是安全评价的重要分析方法之一。它能对各种系统的危险性进行辨识和评价,不仅能分析出事故的直接原因,而且能深入地剖析出事故的潜在原因。用它描述事故的因果关系,直观、明了,思路清晰,逻辑性强[1]。
1 事故树分析评价法
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事故树根据对象系统的性质、分析目的的不同,分析的程序也不同。根据实际需要和要求,来确定分析程序[1]。
(1)熟悉系统。要求确实了解系统情况,包括工作程序、各种重要参数、作业情况。必要时画出工艺流程图和布置图。
(2)调查事故。要求在过去事故案例、有关事故的统计基础上,尽量广泛地调查所能预想到的事故,即包括已发生的事故和可能发生的事故。
(3)确定顶上事件。所谓顶上事件,就是所要分析的对象事件。分析系统发生事故的损失和频率大小,从中找出后果严重且较容易发生的事故作为分析的顶上事件。
(4)确定目标值。将以往的事故记录和同类系统的事故资料,进行统计分析,求出事故发生的概率,然后根据这一事故的严重程度,确定所要控制的事故发生概率的目标值。
(5)调查原因事件。调查与事故有关的所有原因事件和各种因素,包括设备故障、机械故障、操作者的失误、管理和指挥错误、环境因素等,尽量详细地查清原因和影响。
(6)画出事故树。根据上述资料,从顶上事件开始进行演绎分析,逐级找出所有直接原因的事件,直至所要分析的深度,按照其逻辑关系,画出事故树。
(7)定性分析。根据事故树结构进行化简,求出最小割集和最小径集,确定各基本事件的结构重要度排序。最小割集是倒置顶上事件发生的最起码的基本事件的集合。最小割集表示发生事故的途径,反映系统的危险性。利用最小径集,找出根除事故的可能性,从中选出最佳方案;求出各基本原因事件的临界重要度系数,从而对需要治理的原因事件按照临界重要系数大小进行排队,或编出安全检查表,力求加强人为控制。
2 踏破彩钢板坠落事故树的建立
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踏破彩钢板且高空作业、地面状况不好时,可能会发生踏破彩钢板坠落伤亡事故。引起踏破彩钢板坠落伤亡事故主要是由安全带不起作用、支撑物破损、踏破彩钢板和身体失去平衡因素造成的。根据以上分析,可得到踏破彩钢板坠落伤亡的事故树,见图1。
3 事故树分析
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3.1 最小割集
完整的事故树显示出导致事故发生的故障源,然而,即使经验丰富的评价人员也不能从事故树中直接找出导致事故的所有原因,因此如何从事故树求取故障组合,最小割集就是其中的一种方法。本文对最小割集的求解方法主要采用“布尔代数法”。任何一个事故树都可以用布尔代数来描述。化简布尔代数,其最简析取标准式中的每小项所属变元构成的集合,便是最小割集。若最简析取标准式中含有m个最小项,则该事故树有m个最小割集。在求最小割集时,要用布尔代数运算法则,化简代数式。
T=M1X6=M2M3X6
=(X1+X2+X3)(X4+X5)X6
=X1(X4+X5)X6+X2(X4+X5)X6+X3(X4+X5)X6
=X1X4X6+X1X5X6+X2X4X6+X2X5X6+X3X4X6+X3X5X6
根据结构代数式T的展开式可得到6个最小割集,即引起踏破彩钢板坠落事故的“可能途径”有6种。
K1={X1,X4,X6},K2={X1,X5,X6},K3={X2,X4,X6}
K4={X2,X5,X6},K5={X3,X4,X6},K6={X3,X5,X6}
这表明导致踏破彩钢板坠落事故树顶上事件发生的可能途径有6种。
3.2 最小径集
径集表示系统不发生故障而正常工作运行的模式。最小径集是顶上事件不发生的最低限度的基本事件的集合。最小径集表示防止事故的途径,反映系统的安全性。
根据德·摩根定律:(A+B)'=A'B'和(AB)'=A'+B'。把事故树的顶上事件和底部事件分别取逆事件,即变各类事件“发生”为“不发生”,同时把事故树中的“与门”变为“或门”,“或门”变为“与门”,这样就把事故树变为成功树。与简化后事故树对应的成功树,见图2。
如图2所示,成功树的结构代数式为:
T'=M1'X'6=M2'+M3'+X6'=X1'X2'X3'+X4'X5'+X'6
根据结构代数式T'的展开式可得到3个成功树的最小割集,也就是原事故树的最小径集,表示不使踏破彩钢板坠落事故发生的“可能途径”有如下3种:
P1={X'1,X'2,X'3},P2={X'4,X'5},P3={X'6}。
对图2的成功树进行分析,可以得到预防坠落事故发生的有效措施有以下3种:
(1)使X'1、X'2、X'3不发生,事故T就不会发生。各单位应加强对职工的培训教育,明确要求在高空作业时必须佩戴安全带,经常检查安全带,确保安全带合规有效,安全带要挂在上方牢固可靠处,高度不低于腰部,支撑物牢固。同时,与各岗位人员进行联保互保,避免单人作业,发生安全事故。禁止任何人在安全防护不起作用的情况下进行作业。
(2)使X'4、X'5不发生,彩钢板就不会被踏破,坠落事故就不会发生。应加强对彩钢板危害因素辨识,采取管控措施,消除危险源的存在。
(3)若X'6必须发生,应加强危险作业的安全管理和现场管理,严禁备品堆放在厂房内等。
3.3 结构重要度分析
结构重要度分析是分析基本事件对顶上事件的影响程度,为改进系统安全性提供信息的重要手段[2-3]。
事故树中各基本事件对顶上事件影响程度不同。从事故树结构上分析,各基本事件的重要度(不考虑各基本事件的发生概率)或假定各基本事件发生概率相等,分析各基本事件的发生对顶上事件发生的影响程度,成为结构重要度。
根据结构重要度的定义:
IΦ(i)= $\frac{0}{2n-1}$[Φ(1,X)-Φ(0,X)]
式中:IΦ(i)——基本事件Xi的结构重要度系数;
n——基本事件Xi所在割集中基本事件个数。
求得各基本事件的结构重要度,如表1所示。
根据最小割集,从表1通过计数可以得到踏破彩钢板坠落事故树基本事件的结构重要度排序为:IΦ(1)=1/8,IΦ(2)=3/16,IΦ(3)=0,IΦ(4)=1/32,IΦ(5)=3/16,IΦ(6)=9/16。
即为:
IΦ(6)>IΦ(5)=IΦ(2)>IΦ(1)>IΦ(4)>IΦ(3)
根据以上分析可以看出,物的不安全因素(房高2.2 m,地面有托辊)对顶上事件发生的影响程度最大,人的不安全因素(身体失去平衡)对顶上事件发生的影响程度次之[4]。因此,对物的不安全因素的安全防护设施进行有效的安全管理是预防高空坠落事故最有效的措施,其次应加强对人的管理。
4 结论
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(1)通过对踏破彩钢板坠落伤亡事故树的分析可知,顶上事件发生的途径有6种,而预防事故发生的途径有3种,可见该事故易于发生而难于预防,需要格外注意。
(2)由结构重要度分析可以得出,分值较大的是物的不安全因素和人不安全因素,因此要做好高处坠落事故预防措施。物的不安全因素的安全防护以及个人安全防护用品是极其重要的。加强危险作业的安全管理,现场督察人员要密切关注高空作业人员安全带的使用情况。
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参考文献 引证文献
排序方式：
[1]
赵耀江. 安全评价理论及方法[M]. 北京: 煤炭工业出版社, 2008.
[2]
孙兰会, 成锋, 陆愈实. 关于事故树的结构重要度分析[J]. 科技通报, 2015,(4):248-250.
[3]
李艳霞, 孙建华, 魏春荣, 等. 事故树结构重要度求解方法研究探讨[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2012, 8(5):107-110.
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贾晓珊, 董羽, 张宇, 等. 基于FTA和AHP建筑施工高处坠落事故分析[J]. 建筑安全, 2017, 32(10):37-40.
2022年第48卷第6期
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  • 接收时间：2022-06-07
  • 首发时间：2025-11-24
  • 出版时间：2022-12-25
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  • 收稿日期：2022-06-07
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    1 包头钢铁(集团)有限责任公司宝山矿业公司, 内蒙古 包头 014010
    2 内蒙古包钢钢联股份有限公司煤焦化工分公司, 内蒙古 包头 014010
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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