Article(id=1320047760754193248, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, issueId=1320047746350953250, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12377/1671-4393.25.12.01, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=0, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=null, receivedDateStr=null, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1792653511465, onlineDateStr=2026-10-22, pubDate=null, pubDateStr=null, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792653511465, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-22, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792653511465, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792653511465, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1320047746350953250, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, year='2025', volume='', issue='12', pageStart='1', pageEnd='130', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1766592000000', pubDateStr='2025-12-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792653508031, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792653591469, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1320048096378208757, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, issueId=1320047746350953250, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1320048096378208758, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, issueId=1320047746350953250, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=2, endPage=9, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1320047761173623650, articleId=1320047760754193248, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, language=EN, title=Measurement and Influencing Factors of Resilience in China's Dairy Industry Chain, columnId=1297134052318929652, journalTitle=China Dairy, columnName=DAIRY ECONOMICS, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=Industrial chain resilience serves as a crucial foundation for constructing a modern industrial system and ensuring industrial security. Based on the theoretical connotation of industrial chain resilience, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the resilience of the dairy industry chain from three dimensions: resistance capacity, recovery capacity, and transformation capacity. The entropy weight method is employed to measure the resilience of China's dairy industry chain from 2013 to 2022, and the obstacle degree model is applied to analyze its influencing factors. The results indicated that: (1)The resilience of China's dairy industry chain shows an overall fluctuating upward trend, with significant improvements in resistance capacity but slower growth in recovery and transformation capacities. (2)There are notable differences in industrial chain resilience across production regions, ranking as follows: North China > Northeast and Inner Mongolia > areas surrounding large cities > Southern China > Western China. (3)Key obstacles influencing industrial chain resilience include milk production, dairy cattle inventory, rural road density, R&D investment level, and import dependency, with influencing factors exhibiting heterogeneity across different regions. Based on these findings, this paper proposes recommendations such as promoting the coordinated development of advanced manufacturing clusters, accelerating the enhancement of weak links in the industrial chain, and exploring new service-oriented manufacturing formats, aiming to comprehensively improve the resilience of China's dairy industry chain and foster high-quality development in the dairy sector., authors=ZHANG Chao1#, XU Ke2#, WU Rijin2, NA Muri2, YU Zetian1, ZHANG Fenghua1, CHEN Zijie1, DONG Xiaoxia1,*, authorsList=ZHANG Chao, XU Ke, WU Rijin, NA Muri, YU Zetian, ZHANG Fenghua, CHEN Zijie, DONG Xiaoxia, authorCompany=1 Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081;
2 Dairy Association of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010010, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=全国先进制造业集群50人论坛-乳制品先进制造集群产业链供应链韧性研究, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1320047761039405921, articleId=1320047760754193248, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, language=CN, title=中国乳制品产业链韧性测度及影响因素研究, columnId=1297134054554493687, journalTitle=中国乳业, columnName=奶业经济, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=产业链韧性是建设现代化产业体系、保障产业安全的重要支撑。本文基于产业链韧性的理论内涵,从抵抗能力、恢复能力和转型能力3 个维度构建了乳制品产业链韧性评价指标体系,采用熵权法对2013—2022年中国乳制品产业链韧性进行测度,并运用障碍度模型分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)我国乳制品产业链韧性整体呈现波动上升趋势,其中抵抗能力提升显著,恢复能力和转型能力增长缓慢;(2)各产区产业链韧性存在显著差异,排序为华北产区>东北内蒙古产区>大城市周边产区>南方产区>西部产区;(3)牛奶产量、奶牛存栏、农村公路总里程、研发投入水平和进口依赖度是影响产业链韧性的主要障碍因素,且不同产区影响因素呈现异质性特征。基于此,本文提出应推动先进制造业集群协同发展、加快补齐产业链短板、探索服务型制造新业态等建议,以全面提升我国乳制品产业链韧性水平,促进奶业高质量发展。, authors=张超1#, 徐克2#, 乌日金2, 那木日2, 余泽田1, 张凤华1, 陈自杰1, 董晓霞1,*, authorsList=张超, 徐克, 乌日金, 那木日, 余泽田, 张凤华, 陈自杰, 董晓霞, authorCompany=1 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100081;
2 内蒙古奶业协会,内蒙古呼和浩特 010010, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=张超(1983-),男,甘肃平凉人,硕士,助理研究员,研究方向为畜牧业经济;徐克(1979-),男,山东威海人,蒙古族,博士,政工师/经济师,研究方向为奶业;乌日金(1969-),男,内蒙古赤峰人,蒙古族,大学本科,高级畜牧师,研究方向为奶牛养殖与乳品加工;那木日(1996-),男,内蒙古赤峰人,蒙古族,本科,助理兽医师,研究方向为奶业;余泽田(1998-),男,河南信阳人,在读博士,研究方向为畜牧业经济;张凤华(2001-),女,河北衡水人,在读硕士,研究方向为畜牧业经济;陈自杰(1999-),女,河南周口人,硕士,研究方向为农业经济与政策;#共同第一作者, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=*董晓霞(1980-),女,江苏东台人,博士,研究员,研究方向为畜牧业经济。)}, authors=null, keywords=[Keyword(id=1320049193897545747, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, articleId=1320047760754193248, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=乳制品), Keyword(id=1320049194010791958, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, articleId=1320047760754193248, language=CN, orderNo=2, keyword=产业链韧性), Keyword(id=1320049194711240727, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, articleId=1320047760754193248, language=CN, orderNo=3, keyword=熵权法), Keyword(id=1320049194790932504, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, articleId=1320047760754193248, language=CN, orderNo=4, keyword=障碍度模型), Keyword(id=1320049194879012889, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, articleId=1320047760754193248, language=CN, orderNo=5, keyword=影响因素), Keyword(id=1320049195550101530, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, articleId=1320047760754193248, language=EN, orderNo=1, keyword=dairy products), Keyword(id=1320049195684319259, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, articleId=1320047760754193248, language=EN, orderNo=2, keyword=industrial chain resilience), Keyword(id=1320049195969531932, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, articleId=1320047760754193248, language=EN, orderNo=3, keyword=entropy weight method), Keyword(id=1320049196468654109, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, articleId=1320047760754193248, language=EN, orderNo=4, keyword=obstacle degree model), Keyword(id=1320049196846141470, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296801528146919473, articleId=1320047760754193248, language=EN, orderNo=5, keyword=influencing factors)], refs=null, funds=null, companyList=null, figs=null, attaches=null, journal=Journal(id=1296801172792901679, delFlag=0, nameCn=中国乳业, nameEn=China Dairy, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, issn=1671-4393, eissn=null, cn=11-4768/S, coden=null, periodic=0, language=CN, oaType=null, ccby=null, superviseOffice=null, ownerOffice=null, pubOffice=null, editorOffice=null, officeType=null, aims=null, clcCode=null, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=null, officeZip=null, officeEmail=null, officePhone=null, editDirector=null, officeDirector=null, officeDirectorPhone=null, officeStaffNum=null, officeEmpNum=null, coverPicUrl=fy0U6rTUhrcBdKszdYVe3w==, journalPrice=null, startedYear=null, abbrevIsoEn=China Dairy, journalRemark=null, publicationField=null, createdTime=1787111092997, updatedTime=1788949480572, createdBy=18614031015, updatedBy=13041195026, firstLetterCn=Z, firstLetterEn=Z, subjectCode=Agriculture, subjectName=null, subjectCodeEn=Agriculture, subjectNameEn=null, picCn=fy0U6rTUhrcBdKszdYVe3w==, picEn=1lm7RNSd456gWkkoaDGdEQ==, jcr=null, cjcr=null, exts=[JournalExt(id=1304511929255481461, language=CN, name=中国乳业, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, managedBy=, sponsoredBy=, publishedBy=, editorOffice=, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=, officeZip=, editDirector=, officeDirector=null, officePhone=null, coverPicUrl=null, journalRemark=, submitArticleUrl=null, websiteUrl=, createdTime=1788949480594, updatedTime=1788949480594, createdBy=13041195026, updatedBy=13041195026, submissionGuidelinesUrl=, submissionAuthorUrl=https://zgryauthor.cast.org.cn/webm, submissionEditorUrl=https://zgryeditor.cast.org.cn/webm, submissionReviewUrl=https://zgryauthor.cast.org.cn/webm, submissionCeEditorUrl=, submissionAeEditorUrl=, option={"copyright":""}), JournalExt(id=1304511929301618806, language=EN, name=China Dairy, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, managedBy=, sponsoredBy=, publishedBy=, editorOffice=, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=, officeZip=, editDirector=, officeDirector=null, officePhone=null, coverPicUrl=null, journalRemark=, submitArticleUrl=null, websiteUrl=, createdTime=1788949480605, updatedTime=1788949480605, createdBy=13041195026, updatedBy=13041195026, submissionGuidelinesUrl=, submissionAuthorUrl=https://zgryauthor.cast.org.cn/webm, submissionEditorUrl=https://zgryeditor.cast.org.cn/webm, submissionReviewUrl=https://zgryauthor.cast.org.cn/webm, submissionCeEditorUrl=, submissionAeEditorUrl=, option={"copyright":""})], databaseList=null, tenantJournalId=1296801528146919473, websiteList=[Website(id=1296802542923572121, webName=null, webTitle=null, webDomain=null, webCopyrigh=null, webIpcNo=null, seoTitle=null, seoKeywords=null, seoDescription=null, tenantJournalId=null, journalId=1296801528146919473, journalNameCn=null, journalNameEn=null, grayFlag=null, tenantId=1146029695717560320, platformId=null, journalGroupId=null, journalGroupNameCn=null, journalGroupNameEn=null, type=1, domain=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/CN, language=CN, createTime=1787111419659, createBy=18614031015, updateTime=1787111471367, updateBy=18614031015, name=中国乳业-中文, tplId=1146099689490845704, title=中国乳业, delFlag=0, indexPage=/home, props=[WebsiteProps(id=1296802881777198042, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802542923572121, code=articleTextType, value=kx, createTime=1787111500448, updateTime=1787111500448, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802881747837911, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802542923572121, code=banner, value=null, createTime=1787111500441, updateTime=1787111500441, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802881827529693, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802542923572121, code=grayFlag, value=0, createTime=1787111500460, updateTime=1787111500460, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802881735254998, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802542923572121, code=logo, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/CN/file/pic?fileId=qVbzVKBQlSo4CZ2uDrqTZw==, createTime=1787111500438, updateTime=1787111500438, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802881844306911, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802542923572121, code=minRunFlag, value=0, createTime=1787111500464, updateTime=1787111500464, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802881768809433, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802542923572121, code=picServerUrl, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/CN/file/pic, createTime=1787111500446, updateTime=1787111500446, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802881835918302, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802542923572121, code=silenceFlag, value=0, createTime=1787111500462, updateTime=1787111500462, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802881760420824, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802542923572121, code=staticResourcePath, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cast_kjdb_cn_619/, createTime=1787111500444, updateTime=1787111500444, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802881810752475, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802542923572121, code=themeColor, value=null, createTime=1787111500456, updateTime=1787111500456, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802881819141084, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802542923572121, code=themeStyle, value=null, createTime=1787111500458, updateTime=1787111500458, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015)]), Website(id=1296802543032624028, webName=null, webTitle=null, webDomain=null, webCopyrigh=null, webIpcNo=null, seoTitle=null, seoKeywords=null, seoDescription=null, tenantJournalId=null, journalId=1296801528146919473, journalNameCn=null, journalNameEn=null, grayFlag=null, tenantId=1146029695717560320, platformId=null, journalGroupId=null, journalGroupNameCn=null, journalGroupNameEn=null, type=1, domain=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/EN, language=EN, createTime=1787111419685, createBy=18614031015, updateTime=1787111462939, updateBy=18614031015, name=中国乳业-英文, tplId=1146101810881728533, title=China Dairy, delFlag=0, indexPage=/home, props=[WebsiteProps(id=1296802850798068681, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802543032624028, code=articleTextType, value=kx, createTime=1787111493062, updateTime=1787111493062, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802850768708550, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802543032624028, code=banner, value=null, createTime=1787111493055, updateTime=1787111493055, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802850819040204, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802543032624028, code=grayFlag, value=0, createTime=1787111493067, updateTime=1787111493067, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802850760319941, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802543032624028, code=logo, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/EN/file/pic?fileId=qVbzVKBQlSo4CZ2uDrqTZw==, createTime=1787111493053, updateTime=1787111493053, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802850831623118, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802543032624028, code=minRunFlag, value=0, createTime=1787111493070, updateTime=1787111493070, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802850789680072, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802543032624028, code=picServerUrl, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/EN/file/pic, createTime=1787111493060, updateTime=1787111493060, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802850823234509, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802543032624028, code=silenceFlag, value=0, createTime=1787111493068, updateTime=1787111493068, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802850781291463, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802543032624028, code=staticResourcePath, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cast_kjdb_en_623/, createTime=1787111493058, updateTime=1787111493058, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802850802262986, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802543032624028, code=themeColor, value=null, createTime=1787111493063, updateTime=1787111493063, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1296802850810651595, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1296802543032624028, code=themeStyle, value=null, createTime=1787111493065, updateTime=1787111493065, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015)])], journalTitle=中国乳业, weixinUrl=null, journalUrl=http://zhgry.aiijournal.com/, iacademicId=null, status=1, seqNo=null, journalTitleEn=China Dairy, journalPhotoCn=fy0U6rTUhrcBdKszdYVe3w==, journalPhotoEn=1lm7RNSd456gWkkoaDGdEQ==, journalFirstLetter=Z, journalRecommend=null, journalNew=null, journalCollection=null, jcrJf=null, cjcrJf=null, jcrJfStr=null, cjcrJfStr=null, submissionFirstDecision=null, sciSubjectClassification=null, casSubjectClassification=null, citeScore=null, totalCitationFrequency=null, icpCode=null, psCode=null, advertisingLicenseCode=null, copyrightInformation=null, country=null, option=, provinceCode=null, provinceName=null, collectFlag=false, interPubPlatform=, interPubPlatformUrl=null), detailUrlCn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/CN/10.12377/1671-4393.25.12.01, detailUrlEn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/EN/10.12377/1671-4393.25.12.01, pdfUrlCn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/CN/PDF/10.12377/1671-4393.25.12.01, pdfUrlEn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/EN/PDF/10.12377/1671-4393.25.12.01, aliStartDate=null, aliEndDate=null, collectionFlag=false, citedCount=null, citedUrl=null, previewStatus=0, delFlag=0, hasFullText=0, orderTime=1766592000000, fullTextJson=null, articleText=null, reference=[1] 艾伯特·赫尔曼.经济发展战略[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1991.
[2] Holling C S.Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J]. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,1973,4:1-23.
[3] Hamel G,Vaikangas L.The quest for resilience[J]. Harv. Bus. Rev.,2003,81(9): 52-63.
[4] Christopher M,Peck H.Building the resilient supply chain[J].International Journal of Logistics Management,2004,15(2):1-14.
[5] 罗黎平. 协同治理视角下的产业集群韧性提升研究[J].求索,2018(6):43-50.
[6] 王丽莎,庞智强,邢强.企业数字化转型的创新溢出效应—基于产业链供应链韧性视角[J/OL].软科学,1-12[2024-11-17]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/51.1268.G3.20241031.1655.008.html.
[7] 段浩. 新冠疫情对我国产业链韧性的压力测试及应对举措[J].中国工业和信息化,2020(3):94-96.
[8] 孟祺. 链长制与产业链韧性:基于多期DID的实证检验[J].新疆社会科学,2023(1):55-64.
[9] 张伟,李航宇,张婷.中国制造业产业链韧性测度及其时空分异特征[J].经济地理,2023,43(4):134-143.
[10] 缪秋瑜,董晓红.浙江省新能源汽车产业链韧性的测度研究[J].价值工程,2024,43(31):1-4.
[11] 曹晔. 数字新质生产力对产业链韧性的影响研究[J].统计与决策,2024,40(10):23-27.
[12] 桑晶,郭燕萍.饲料业产业链韧性水平测度及影响因素[J].饲料研究,2024,47(2):183-188.
[13] 陈晓东,刘洋,周柯.数字经济提升我国产业链韧性的路径研究[J].经济体制改革,2022(1):95-102.
[14] 祝树金,李丹,彭彬.增强产业链韧性的现实逻辑和实践路径[J].开放导报,2023,(2):42-52.)
收藏切换
中国乳制品产业链韧性测度及影响因素研究
收藏切换
中国乳业 | 奶业经济 2025,(12): 2-9
收起
收藏切换
中国乳业 |奶业经济 2025 , (12) : 2 -9
中国乳制品产业链韧性测度及影响因素研究
全屏
张超1#, 徐克2#, 乌日金2, 那木日2, 余泽田1, 张凤华1, 陈自杰1, 董晓霞1,*
作者信息
    1 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100081;
    2 内蒙古奶业协会,内蒙古呼和浩特 010010
作者简介:
张超(1983-),男,甘肃平凉人,硕士,助理研究员,研究方向为畜牧业经济;徐克(1979-),男,山东威海人,蒙古族,博士,政工师/经济师,研究方向为奶业;乌日金(1969-),男,内蒙古赤峰人,蒙古族,大学本科,高级畜牧师,研究方向为奶牛养殖与乳品加工;那木日(1996-),男,内蒙古赤峰人,蒙古族,本科,助理兽医师,研究方向为奶业;余泽田(1998-),男,河南信阳人,在读博士,研究方向为畜牧业经济;张凤华(2001-),女,河北衡水人,在读硕士,研究方向为畜牧业经济;陈自杰(1999-),女,河南周口人,硕士,研究方向为农业经济与政策;#共同第一作者
Measurement and Influencing Factors of Resilience in China's Dairy Industry Chain
  • ZHANG Chao1#, XU Ke2#, WU Rijin2, NA Muri2, YU Zetian1, ZHANG Fenghua1, CHEN Zijie1, DONG Xiaoxia1,*
  • Affiliations
      1 Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081;
      2 Dairy Association of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010010
    doi: 10.12377/1671-4393.25.12.01
    文章导航
    收藏切换
    产业链韧性是建设现代化产业体系、保障产业安全的重要支撑。本文基于产业链韧性的理论内涵,从抵抗能力、恢复能力和转型能力3 个维度构建了乳制品产业链韧性评价指标体系,采用熵权法对2013—2022年中国乳制品产业链韧性进行测度,并运用障碍度模型分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)我国乳制品产业链韧性整体呈现波动上升趋势,其中抵抗能力提升显著,恢复能力和转型能力增长缓慢;(2)各产区产业链韧性存在显著差异,排序为华北产区>东北内蒙古产区>大城市周边产区>南方产区>西部产区;(3)牛奶产量、奶牛存栏、农村公路总里程、研发投入水平和进口依赖度是影响产业链韧性的主要障碍因素,且不同产区影响因素呈现异质性特征。基于此,本文提出应推动先进制造业集群协同发展、加快补齐产业链短板、探索服务型制造新业态等建议,以全面提升我国乳制品产业链韧性水平,促进奶业高质量发展。
    乳制品  /  产业链韧性  /  熵权法  /  障碍度模型  /  影响因素
    Industrial chain resilience serves as a crucial foundation for constructing a modern industrial system and ensuring industrial security. Based on the theoretical connotation of industrial chain resilience, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the resilience of the dairy industry chain from three dimensions: resistance capacity, recovery capacity, and transformation capacity. The entropy weight method is employed to measure the resilience of China's dairy industry chain from 2013 to 2022, and the obstacle degree model is applied to analyze its influencing factors. The results indicated that: (1)The resilience of China's dairy industry chain shows an overall fluctuating upward trend, with significant improvements in resistance capacity but slower growth in recovery and transformation capacities. (2)There are notable differences in industrial chain resilience across production regions, ranking as follows: North China > Northeast and Inner Mongolia > areas surrounding large cities > Southern China > Western China. (3)Key obstacles influencing industrial chain resilience include milk production, dairy cattle inventory, rural road density, R&D investment level, and import dependency, with influencing factors exhibiting heterogeneity across different regions. Based on these findings, this paper proposes recommendations such as promoting the coordinated development of advanced manufacturing clusters, accelerating the enhancement of weak links in the industrial chain, and exploring new service-oriented manufacturing formats, aiming to comprehensively improve the resilience of China's dairy industry chain and foster high-quality development in the dairy sector.
    dairy products  /  industrial chain resilience  /  entropy weight method  /  obstacle degree model  /  influencing factors
    张超, 徐克, 乌日金, 那木日, 余泽田, 张凤华, 陈自杰, 董晓霞. 中国乳制品产业链韧性测度及影响因素研究. 中国乳业, 2025 , (12) : 2 -9 . DOI: 10.12377/1671-4393.25.12.01
    ZHANG Chao, XU Ke, WU Rijin, NA Muri, YU Zetian, ZHANG Fenghua, CHEN Zijie, DONG Xiaoxia. Measurement and Influencing Factors of Resilience in China's Dairy Industry Chain[J]. China Dairy, 2025 , (12) : 2 -9 . DOI: 10.12377/1671-4393.25.12.01

      *董晓霞(1980-),女,江苏东台人,博士,研究员,研究方向为畜牧业经济。

    参考文献 引证文献
    排序方式:
    [1] 艾伯特·赫尔曼.经济发展战略[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1991.
    [2] Holling C S.Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J]. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,1973,4:1-23.
    [3] Hamel G,Vaikangas L.The quest for resilience[J]. Harv. Bus. Rev.,2003,81(9): 52-63.
    [4] Christopher M,Peck H.Building the resilient supply chain[J].International Journal of Logistics Management,2004,15(2):1-14.
    [5] 罗黎平. 协同治理视角下的产业集群韧性提升研究[J].求索,2018(6):43-50.
    [6] 王丽莎,庞智强,邢强.企业数字化转型的创新溢出效应—基于产业链供应链韧性视角[J/OL].软科学,1-12[2024-11-17]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/51.1268.G3.20241031.1655.008.html.
    [7] 段浩. 新冠疫情对我国产业链韧性的压力测试及应对举措[J].中国工业和信息化,2020(3):94-96.
    [8] 孟祺. 链长制与产业链韧性:基于多期DID的实证检验[J].新疆社会科学,2023(1):55-64.
    [9] 张伟,李航宇,张婷.中国制造业产业链韧性测度及其时空分异特征[J].经济地理,2023,43(4):134-143.
    [10] 缪秋瑜,董晓红.浙江省新能源汽车产业链韧性的测度研究[J].价值工程,2024,43(31):1-4.
    [11] 曹晔. 数字新质生产力对产业链韧性的影响研究[J].统计与决策,2024,40(10):23-27.
    [12] 桑晶,郭燕萍.饲料业产业链韧性水平测度及影响因素[J].饲料研究,2024,47(2):183-188.
    [13] 陈晓东,刘洋,周柯.数字经济提升我国产业链韧性的路径研究[J].经济体制改革,2022(1):95-102.
    [14] 祝树金,李丹,彭彬.增强产业链韧性的现实逻辑和实践路径[J].开放导报,2023,(2):42-52.
    2025年第卷第12期
    64
    0
    引用本文
    BibTeX
    文章信息
    doi: 10.12377/1671-4393.25.12.01
    • 首发时间:2026-10-22
    补充材料
    相关文章
    文章信息
    作者
    出版历史
    基金
    作者信息
    参考文献
    分享链接
    https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgry/CN/10.12377/1671-4393.25.12.01
    分享至
    全文二维码

    扫描看全文

    引用本文
    BibTeX
    本文的引用情况
    2种不同金属材料的力学参数
    科
    Family
    属数
    Number of
    genus
    种数
    Number of
    species
    占总种数比例
    Percentage of
    total species (%)
    属
    Genus
    种数
    Number of
    species
    占总种数比例
    Percentage of total
    species (%)
    鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
    小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
    多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
    红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
    小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
    光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
    红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
    栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
    关闭全屏