Article(id=1314922101883110031, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314922077824578469, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1746460800000, receivedDateStr=2025-05-06, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1791431459160, onlineDateStr=2026-10-08, pubDate=1771516800000, pubDateStr=2026-02-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1791431459160, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1791431459160, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1791431459160, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1314922077824578469, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, year='2026', volume='46', issue='2', pageStart='593', pageEnd='1184', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1771516800000', pubDateStr='2026-02-20', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1791431453424, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1791431520751, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1314922360277398376, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314922077824578469, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1314922360277398377, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314922077824578469, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1099, endPage=1113, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1314922102092825232, articleId=1314922101883110031, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=EN, title=Mountain city expansion and carbon emission response—A case study of the main urban area of Chongqing, columnId=1234106390126588740, journalTitle=China Environmental Science, columnName=Carbon Emission Control, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Based on the land use data, natural socio-economic data and carbon emission data of the main urban area of Chongqing, the land use transfer matrix and the PLUS (Patching-generating Land Use Simulation) model were used to analyze the spatial evolution characteristics of urban expansion in the main urban area of Chongqing from 2000 to 2020. The development scenarios of the natural state, urban expansion and ecological protection in 2030 were simulated under the influence of endogenous driving factors. The response relationship between land use change and carbon emissions in the study area from 2019 to 2022 was analyzed based on the Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and the total carbon emissions under the three scenarios were calculated. From 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land in the study area decreased by 928.82km², while the construction land increased by 858.30km². A large amount of cultivated land was transferred to the construction land, and water areas, forest land and grassland underwent in a certain degree of dynamic change. Urban expansion is influenced by a combination of natural and socio-economic factors, with the main driving factors including elevation, distance from water areas and distance from Grade 1roads. External policy-driven factors also have a significant impact on urban expansion. From 2020 to 2030, the main urban area of Chongqing will continue to experience in a rapid urbanization process. The direction of urban expansion will mainly be eastward and westward, while the expansion direction of forest land and grassland will be opposite to that of urban expansion. The impact of changes in land use structure on carbon emissions is mostly nonlinear, and there may be potential threshold areas. Forest land, water and cultivated land show non-linear relationships, while grassland and construction land show linear relationships. Based on the land use structure of three scenarios in the study area in 2030, it is estimated that the carbon emissions of the land use structure in study area of Chongqing in 2030 will be 59.2995million tons of C/a, 62.0677million tons of C/a, and 58.2041million tons of C/a respectively.

, authors=Ling XIE^{1, 2}, Yu-hang HUANG², Zhi-jin SONG², Zhan-tu CHEN^{1, 2, *}, Su-hong LIU³, authorsList=Ling XIE, Yu-hang HUANG, Zhi-jin SONG, Zhan-tu CHEN, Su-hong LIU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Zhan-tu CHEN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1314922102336094865, articleId=1314922101883110031, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=CN, title=山地城市扩张与碳排放响应——以重庆主城为例, columnId=1234106391661704058, journalTitle=中国环境科学, columnName=碳排放控制, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

基于重庆市主城区的土地利用数据、自然社会经济数据和“碳排放”数据，利用土地利用转移矩阵和斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型，分析重庆市主城区2000~2020年间城市扩张的空间演化特征，模拟2030年自然发展情景、城市发展情景、生态保护情景的城市扩张，基于广义可加模型（GAM）解析2019~2022年研究区土地利用变化与碳排放响应关系，并计算了3种情景下碳排放总量．①2000~2020年，研究区耕地减少了928.82km²，建设用地增加了858.30km²，大量的耕地转入了建设用地之中，水域、林地、草地处于一定程度上的动态变化之中．②城市扩张受自然和社会经济因素的综合作用，主要驱动因素有高程、距水域距离和距1级道路距离，外在政策驱动因素对城市扩张同样具有重要影响．③2020~2030年重庆市主城区将继续处于快速城市化进程中，城市扩张方向以东向西向为主，林地、草地的扩张方向与城市扩张相反．④土地利用结构变化对碳排放的影响多呈现非线性关系，并可能存在潜在的阈值区，林地、水域、耕地变化与碳排放呈非线性，草地和建设用地变化与碳排放呈线性关系．⑤基于研究区2030年3种情景土地利用结构，估算2030年重庆主城区土地利用结构碳排分别为5929.95，6206.77，5820.41万t C/a．

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谢玲（1990-），女，新疆库尔勒人，副教授，博士，主要从事区域可持续发展与生态环境遥感研究．发表论文20余篇．142837594@qq.com.

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谢玲（1990-），女，新疆库尔勒人，副教授，博士，主要从事区域可持续发展与生态环境遥感研究．发表论文20余篇．142837594@qq.com.

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