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The National Key Ecological Function Zone Policy is an important part of China's ecological governance system, but whether it promoted county-level green economic growth remained unclear. Using county panel data for 2005~2020, the policy's impact on green economic growth was analyzed with a difference-in-differences design and machine-learning methods. The results show that the policysignificantly increased county green economic growth by 2.77%. Mechanism analyses indicated that the policy raised the value of ecosystem services by 6.59%, increased transfer payments by 11.71%, enhanced green technological innovation by 1.63%, and reduced the number of moderately polluting firms by 11.72%. The economic structure was further modernized. The heterogeneity analysis showed that the overall policy effect was stronger in western regions. Machine learning results show that the promotion effect was weaker where the welfare base was stronger, the fiscal burden was heavier, and the functional zone covered a larger area. These findings help us better understand how the policy promotes green economic growth and its shortcomings. The results provide useful reference for improving the policy according to local conditions and further promoting regional green economic growth.

, authors=Shui-fa KE, Jin-zhi CHEN*, Dan-ni HUANG, authorsList=Shui-fa KE, Jin-zhi CHEN, Dan-ni HUANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Jin-zhi CHEN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1314922051526287715, articleId=1314922051014582625, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=CN, title=国家重点生态功能区政策能否促进县域绿色经济增长?, columnId=1234106419604157142, journalTitle=中国环境科学, columnName=环境影响评价与管理, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

国家重点生态功能区政策是我国生态治理制度体系的重要组成部分,国家重点生态功能区政策是否能够推动县域的绿色经济增长还有待进一步的探究.基于2005年至2020年中国县域面板数据,采用双重差分法和机器学习方法分析了政策对县域绿色经济增长的影响.研究发现,国家重点生态功能区政策显著促进了县域绿色经济的增长,幅度为2.77%.机制分析表明,政策使得县域生态系统服务功能价值增加6.59%、转移支付获得增加11.71%、绿色技术创新幅度增加1.63%、中度污染企业数量减少11.72%,经济结构更加现代化.异质性分析表明,政策总体效应在西部地区较强.机器学习结果表明,福利基础较强、财政负担较大和功能区面积较大的地区政策对绿色经济增长的促进效果较弱.以上发现有利于深入理解国家重点生态功能区对地区绿色经济发展内在机理和不足之处,为因地制宜完善重点生态功能区政策进一步推动区域绿色经济增长提供了有益的参考.

, authors=柯水发, 陈津志*, 黄丹妮, authorsList=柯水发, 陈津志, 黄丹妮, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=陈津志, authorNote=

柯水发(1977-),男,福建安溪人,教授,博士,主要从事林业和环境科学与资源利用方面研究.发表论文150余篇..

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* 责任作者,博士研究生,
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柯水发(1977-),男,福建安溪人,教授,博士,主要从事林业和环境科学与资源利用方面研究.发表论文150余篇..

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柯水发(1977-),男,福建安溪人,教授,博士,主要从事林业和环境科学与资源利用方面研究.发表论文150余篇..

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国家重点生态功能区政策能否促进县域绿色经济增长?
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柯水发 , 陈津志 * , 黄丹妮
中国环境科学 | 环境影响评价与管理 2026,46(1): 539-554
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中国环境科学 |环境影响评价与管理 2026 , 46 (1) : 539 -554
国家重点生态功能区政策能否促进县域绿色经济增长?
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柯水发 , 陈津志* , 黄丹妮
作者信息
  • 中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京 100872
通讯作者:
* 责任作者,博士研究生,
作者简介:

柯水发(1977-),男,福建安溪人,教授,博士,主要从事林业和环境科学与资源利用方面研究.发表论文150余篇..

Can the policy of national key ecological functional zones promote green economic growth in counties?
Shui-fa KE , Jin-zhi CHEN* , Dan-ni HUANG
Affiliations
  • School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
出版时间: 2026-01-20
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国家重点生态功能区政策是我国生态治理制度体系的重要组成部分,国家重点生态功能区政策是否能够推动县域的绿色经济增长还有待进一步的探究.基于2005年至2020年中国县域面板数据,采用双重差分法和机器学习方法分析了政策对县域绿色经济增长的影响.研究发现,国家重点生态功能区政策显著促进了县域绿色经济的增长,幅度为2.77%.机制分析表明,政策使得县域生态系统服务功能价值增加6.59%、转移支付获得增加11.71%、绿色技术创新幅度增加1.63%、中度污染企业数量减少11.72%,经济结构更加现代化.异质性分析表明,政策总体效应在西部地区较强.机器学习结果表明,福利基础较强、财政负担较大和功能区面积较大的地区政策对绿色经济增长的促进效果较弱.以上发现有利于深入理解国家重点生态功能区对地区绿色经济发展内在机理和不足之处,为因地制宜完善重点生态功能区政策进一步推动区域绿色经济增长提供了有益的参考.

国家重点生态功能区  /  县域经济  /  产业绿色转型  /  区域经济结构调整

The National Key Ecological Function Zone Policy is an important part of China's ecological governance system, but whether it promoted county-level green economic growth remained unclear. Using county panel data for 2005~2020, the policy's impact on green economic growth was analyzed with a difference-in-differences design and machine-learning methods. The results show that the policysignificantly increased county green economic growth by 2.77%. Mechanism analyses indicated that the policy raised the value of ecosystem services by 6.59%, increased transfer payments by 11.71%, enhanced green technological innovation by 1.63%, and reduced the number of moderately polluting firms by 11.72%. The economic structure was further modernized. The heterogeneity analysis showed that the overall policy effect was stronger in western regions. Machine learning results show that the promotion effect was weaker where the welfare base was stronger, the fiscal burden was heavier, and the functional zone covered a larger area. These findings help us better understand how the policy promotes green economic growth and its shortcomings. The results provide useful reference for improving the policy according to local conditions and further promoting regional green economic growth.

national key ecological function zone  /  county economy  /  industrial green transition  /  regional economic restructuring
柯水发, 陈津志, 黄丹妮. 国家重点生态功能区政策能否促进县域绿色经济增长?. 中国环境科学, 2026 , 46 (1) : 539 -554 .
Shui-fa KE, Jin-zhi CHEN, Dan-ni HUANG. Can the policy of national key ecological functional zones promote green economic growth in counties?[J]. China Environmental Science, 2026 , 46 (1) : 539 -554 .
  • 国家社会科学基金一般项目资助(19BGL161)
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  • 接收时间:2025-05-26
  • 首发时间:2026-10-08
  • 出版时间:2026-01-20
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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-26
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国家社会科学基金一般项目资助(19BGL161)
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    中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京 100872

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* 责任作者,博士研究生,
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
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红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
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