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The establishment of National Agricultural Green Development Pilot Zones (NAGDPZ) was regarded as a major policy initiative aimed at facilitating the green transformation of agriculture and was expected to significantly influence agricultural carbon emissions. However, limited research had been conducted in this area. Based on panel data from 284 cities spanning the period from 2013 to 2023, a quasi-natural experiment was constructed using the implementation of the NAGDPZ. The difference-in-differences (DID) method was employed to systematically evaluate the effect of the NAGDPZ policy on agricultural carbon emissions.The following findings were obtained:(1) The NAGDPZ policy was found to significantly reduce agricultural carbon emissions. A statistically significant negative effect at the 10% level was observed, with an estimated coefficient of -0.008. The robustness of this result was confirmed through parallel trend tests, placebo tests, propensity score matching DID (PSM-DID), exclusion of potential confounding policies, and controls for endogeneity.(2) Mechanism analysis revealed that the emission reduction effect was primarily driven by improvements in agricultural production efficiency, the development of digital inclusive finance, and the promotion of rural innovation and entrepreneurship. Specifically, the NAGDPZ policy had a significantly positive impact on agricultural total factor productivity, the digital inclusive finance index, and the rural innovation and entrepreneurship index, with coefficients of 0.019, 0.008, and 0.018, respectively.(3) Heterogeneity analysis indicated that the carbon reduction effect varied across regions. Significant negative impacts were observed in southern China, non-major grain-producing areas, and regions with higher levels of agricultural financial support, with coefficients of -0.008, -0.016, and -0.015, respectively. In light of these findings, it is recommended that the establishment of NAGDPZ be expanded to further enhance the policy's effectiveness in reducing agricultural carbon emissions.

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基于2013~2023年284个城市面板数据，通过国家农业绿色发展先行区创建工作构建准自然实验，利用双重差分法，就国家农业绿色发展先行区政策对农业碳排放的影响进行系统剖析．研究发现：①国家农业绿色发展先行区政策能够显著减少农业碳排放，国家农业绿色发展先行区政策对农业碳排放的影响在10%的统计水平显著为负，系数为-0.008，这一负向影响在经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、PSM-DID分析、排除其他政策影响、处置内生性等诸多稳健性检验后依然成立；②国家农业绿色发展先行区政策通过提升农业生产效率、推动数字普惠金融发展、推动乡村创新创业而减少农业碳排放．国家农业绿色发展先行区政策对农业碳全要素生产率、数字普惠金融发展指数、乡村创新创业指数的影响显著为正，系数为0.019，0.008，0.018，这三项指标提升都有利于减少农业碳排放．③国家农业绿色发展先行区政策对农业碳排放的负向影响存在异质性．国家农业绿色发展先行区政策对农业碳排放的负向影响在南方地区、非粮食主产区、高农业财政地区显著，系数分别为-0.008，-0.016，-0.015．为此，建议加大国家农业绿色发展先行区创建范围，进一步发挥国家农业绿色发展先行区政策的农业碳减排效应．

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刘慧敏（1996-），女，江西吉安人，博士研究生，主要从事农业生态经济研究．发表论文8篇．liuhuimin921@sina.com.

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刘慧敏（1996-），女，江西吉安人，博士研究生，主要从事农业生态经济研究．发表论文8篇．liuhuimin921@sina.com.

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